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What about the offense?

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#61 jokin

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:48 PM

I think Pinto and Hermann both start at AAA. They need to develop as I could see them being a great catching tandem for a long time. One bats right, the other left. The likely backup also can play other positions - almost an ideal situation if they develop and take the next step.


So in your scenario, the Twins Catchers will be? Doumit and....? (I actually think this is how this is going to play out and long-term, that tandem might be the answer. I have 2 names in mind to become the regular C in the meantime, just wanted to hear your prediction).

#62 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:48 PM

I guess it depends on what we mean by realistically.....but Choo is still out there, but I agree, I don't think they'll do that. I admit that the offensive upgrade options are dwindling by the day. At this point, I'd take a flyer on a bounce back DH candidate of some kind. I don't think they'll make a trade. If Dozier works out, they can move Rosario to LF if Hicks can't hit (or if Hicks can and they move Arcia to DH). If Dozier doesn't work out, Rosario is your 2B (and none of that happens until 2015 now, unfortunately).

As for "not punting" this year, I don't get how we can realistically look at the lineup, and see anything other than continued mediocrity or worse this coming year. The pitching improvements help this year, but they don't get them near the hump, let alone over it, with this lineup imo. I hope JC is right, and I'm wrong.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#63 COTwinsFan

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:49 PM

Reality check: .212/.288/.404 Buxton's numbers against mostly high A and AA competition in the AFL this fall.

He is at least 2 years away. September of 2015 the earliest if he crashes AA pitching (like Pinto and Arcia and Sano did.)


Gotta love the people who think that Hicks is not ready and the Twins promoted him too early and at the same time are asking for Buxton :)


You may want to check out Mike Trout's AFL #'s, they are remarkably similar to Buxton's. I will be shocked if Buxton is not in MN for at least September of 2014. The year after Trout's AFL performance he was up with the Angel's from mid-July. The Twins have not had a prospect of Buxton's ilk since Joe Mauer, comparing him to Hicks is nonsensical when you realize Hicks took a total of 3 years to complete Low and High A ball. It took Buxton 1 year.

#64 Shane Wahl

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:50 PM

I would rather wait on some of these position player prospects and see what happens with Plouffe and Sano, Hicks, etc. before doing much on the market.

#65 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:50 PM

My main concern would be not adding somebody where there is a prospect likely to take over soon, 3rd base for example. Also, one reason I'm not worried about Pressly starting in center - chances are Hicks is playing there by the end of the summer. However, we could use a productive corner outfielder because Willingham should be dealt as he is in the last year of his contract and he really just needs to be a DH, and the next outfielder up (Buxton) is likely two years away.

I also would let Doumit catch (I know, let the defensive / framing ridicule begin). Mainly I am doing this so we can showcase him and deal him but also so Pinto can start at AAA along with Hermann. Fryer can ride the pine 6 days a week.



Right, as Leviathon, me, and Jokin are trying to say, 2015 looks like it might work, but 2014, not so much.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#66 Willihammer

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:54 PM

[TABLE="width: 128"]

[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]pos[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64"]OPS[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]SS[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.607[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]CF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.616[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]RF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.654[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]OF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.665[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]LF[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.684[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]total[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.686[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]3B[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.691[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]1B[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.709[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]2B[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.714[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]DH[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.716[/TD]


[TD="class: xl65"]C[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]0.897[/TD]

[/TABLE]

2013 OPS by position.

#67 jokin

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:57 PM

Jokin, in my ideal scenario, it's just Pinto and Herrmann as the catchers. Herrmann improved over his 2012 brief stint, and I think he can provide average defense there, above average defense in the corner OF, and still be a potential .680-710 OPS guy overall. He just has to limit the strikeouts.

How much of the 2013 season was spent with a 13-man pitching staff? They absolutely should not have to do that this year. At all.


I'm on board with Pinto and Hermann as the duo, longer-term. But don't the Twins need more of a veteran presence behind the plate in the short-term?

This might be a good time to start a TD prediction pool for the number of days the Twins employ a 13-man staff in 2014 :P (Barring another significant SP acquisition, I would still put the over/under at "25" :whacky028:).

#68 jokin

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:57 PM

Jokin, in my ideal scenario, it's just Pinto and Herrmann as the catchers. Herrmann improved over his 2012 brief stint, and I think he can provide average defense there, above average defense in the corner OF, and still be a potential .680-710 OPS guy overall. He just has to limit the strikeouts.

How much of the 2013 season was spent with a 13-man pitching staff? They absolutely should not have to do that this year. At all.


D/P

#69 Linus

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 02:59 PM

Doumit and ...................Eric Fryer. Mind you, this isn't my desire rather the practical reality of the situation. And I have no problem with this if Doumit is actively shopped and out of here by the trade deadline. At that point, we hope that our guy Pinto is ready for the show. Perhaps by next year we have the long term solution of Pinto and Hermann going.

#70 jokin

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:02 PM

You may want to check out Mike Trout's AFL #'s, they are remarkably similar to Buxton's. I will be shocked if Buxton is not in MN for at least September of 2014. The year after Trout's AFL performance he was up with the Angel's from mid-July. The Twins have not had a prospect of Buxton's ilk since Joe Mauer, comparing him to Hicks is nonsensical when you realize Hicks took a total of 3 years to complete Low and High A ball. It took Buxton 1 year.


I'm with you on this one. As many of argued during the spring...."Buxton Ain't Hicks"!

#71 jokin

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:17 PM

Doumit and ...................Eric Fryer. Mind you, this isn't my desire rather the practical reality of the situation. And I have no problem with this if Doumit is actively shopped and out of here by the trade deadline. At that point, we hope that our guy Pinto is ready for the show. Perhaps by next year we have the long term solution of Pinto and Hermann going.


Ughhh.... Given the Twins rather serious intent on locking down AJ or Salty, this tandem would be a huge letdown, and I hope the FO isn't resigned to this scenario. The net loss in hitting production combined for 1B and C would take a huge hit relative to the Twins already-meager 2013 total offensive stat line.....and the defensive drop into a black hole goes without saying. I'm still hoping they sign a Buck or an Arencibia on a short-term deal or trade for Wieters- you end up with at worst, status quo to combined production from 1B/C, and possibly get a net upgrade, for a reasonable cost.

#72 Linus

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:30 PM

Ughhh.... Given the Twins rather serious intent on locking down AJ or Salty, this tandem would be a huge letdown, and I hope the FO isn't resigned to this scenario. The net loss in hitting production combined for 1B and C would take a huge hit relative to the Twins already-meager 2013 total offensive stat line.....and the defensive drop into a black hole goes without saying. I'm still hoping they sign a Buck or an Arencibia on a short-term deal or trade for Wieters- you end up with at worst, status quo to combined production from 1B/C, and possibly get a net upgrade, for a reasonable cost.


I don't dig it either but the offensive loss is going to be less with Doumit than any of the others you mentioned excepting Wieters, and I'm done giving catchers huge contracts.

#73 johnnydakota

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:37 PM

Another way to narrow the gap between runs allowed and runs scored is to tighten up the defense, Bringing in Juan Uribe to play 3rd and starting Mastroianni,Hicks and Presley in the outfield 80% of the time would go a long way to helping the defense.It would kill the offense, but the ole adage pitching and defense wins titles, started some where .

#74 Jim Crikket

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 03:52 PM

As for "not punting" this year, I don't get how we can realistically look at the lineup, and see anything other than continued mediocrity or worse this coming year. The pitching improvements help this year, but they don't get them near the hump, let alone over it, with this lineup imo. I hope JC is right, and I'm wrong.


Here's the irony: If the Twins do add another upgrade to their rotation, I could see a scenario where the pitching is improved enough that, when June rolls around, I'm the guy coming on here and yelling, "get this team some more offense, Terry!" every day.

In other words, I don't disagree with you that it's likely to be needed. I'm just not at all sure where the greatest need will be yet and I'd rather get more pitching now (because we know we still can use that) and then give the FO a couple months of the season to more definitively identify where to upgrade offensively.
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#75 mike wants wins

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:10 PM

Here's the irony: If the Twins do add another upgrade to their rotation, I could see a scenario where the pitching is improved enough that, when June rolls around, I'm the guy coming on here and yelling, "get this team some more offense, Terry!" every day.

In other words, I don't disagree with you that it's likely to be needed. I'm just not at all sure where the greatest need will be yet and I'd rather get more pitching now (because we know we still can use that) and then give the FO a couple months of the season to more definitively identify where to upgrade offensively.


Fair enough, and not unreasonable. I just think they'll be out of it by the trade deadline with this offense, though I guess if they find a difference making SP, that could change. I don't see one of those available either, though.

The upgrade needed will be in LF for sure, since there is no LF on the roster in 2014 or beyond, unless you think Hicks is moving there, and will be good.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#76 birdwatcher

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:30 PM

[quote name='mike wants wins']This part.

This offense won't be that good until a bunch of prospects come up and all succeed. In the meantime, what?

Why would you come to a conclusion that Mastro and Pressly will be 2/3rds of the outfield in 2104? I mean, if I wanted to be pessimistic, for SURE I'd psych myself into thinking this will be the case despite absolutely zero, and I mean zero chance of this being the case.

None of us know how the AB's will be distributed. We don't know what the rest of the off-season will bring, and none of us have ever been any good at all a predicting what kind of performance we're going to get from players. Could Arcia, Willingham, Parmelee, Hicks, and Doumit all flop? Sure, but it's unreasonably pessimistic to think that, and silly to paint a picture that Pressly and Mastro are going to be two of our three best options. Frankly, if I knew how to bet it, I'd put money on all five of the aforementioned giving us more offensive production than either of those guys, and maybe Plouffe as well.

#77 launchingthrees

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:39 PM

Reality check: .212/.288/.404 Buxton's numbers against mostly high A and AA competition in the AFL this fall.

He is at least 2 years away. September of 2015 the earliest if he crashes AA pitching (like Pinto and Arcia and Sano did.)


Gotta love the people who think that Hicks is not ready and the Twins promoted him too early and at the same time are asking for Buxton :)


Gotta love the people who think 50 ABs is indicative of anything other than statistical noise.

#78 birdwatcher

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:40 PM

So punt on this year, if I can summarize your post.


Not a very good summary, mike.

#79 Thrylos

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:43 PM

You may want to check out Mike Trout's AFL #'s, they are remarkably similar to Buxton's. I will be shocked if Buxton is not in MN for at least September of 2014. The year after Trout's AFL performance he was up with the Angel's from mid-July. The Twins have not had a prospect of Buxton's ilk since Joe Mauer, comparing him to Hicks is nonsensical when you realize Hicks took a total of 3 years to complete Low and High A ball. It took Buxton 1 year.



Is Trout in the Twins' organization?

HUGE difference on how the Twins and the Angels move their players up.
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#80 Riverbrian

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Posted 05 December 2013 - 04:54 PM

I'm saying the Twins hands are somewhat tied and they're simply not going to just jettison Willingham, Plouffe, Florimon and Doumit, the result being there are no significant offensive FAs that make sense during the off-season. I'm saying that doesn't mean you don't keep shopping for starting pitching. I'm also saying that you see how things evolve in to June and July and then take another look at what might make sense.


I agree with this.

The Twins will be much better offensively... If they just play to expectation.

As hard as I am on Plouffe... I don't want him tossed away. I just want him to play better because I think he is capable of so much more. Hammer, Parm, Plouffe... The whole team under performed... Let's go from under performance to performance.

The offensive needs won't be as acute then.
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