Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

J.P. Arencibia

  • Please log in to reply
41 replies to this topic

#21 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 5,019 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 03 December 2013 - 10:16 AM

Speaking of his power and lack of contact, his numbers really remind me of those of a certain catcher who went .191/.252/.389 with 16 HRs in a particular special Twins' team... Drew's dad was his backup.

I'd so pass.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#22 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,902 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 10:21 AM

If he's strictly a backup, sure, but I don't think Pinto could purposly hit as poorly as Arencibia did last year. Even if Pinto disappoints, I doubt he disappoints to that level. You only get a Hicksonian level of offensive confusion a couple times a decade, I don't think the Twins should go out of their way to find it again.

The HR are sexy, but I don't even want to platoon a guy who has a career .258 OBP.

#23 Craig in MN

Craig in MN

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 124 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 10:31 AM

People are seriously underrating Arencibia based on his low AVG and poor year last year. He's not Drew Butera. Butera has a sub .500 OPS and has never done anything with his bat in the majors or minors. Arencibia has a very good minor league track record, and 2 good offensive years in the majors, followed by one bad year (with a very poor/unlucky BABIP). It makes no sense to complain about a 59 OPS+ while ignore his previous two years and ignoring that Hermann and Fryer (who are basically the same age) weren't doing well enough in the minors to earn notable MLB playing time at all.


Arencibia's never going to be even a decent AVG guy, and he's never going to be an all star, but he averages 20 HRs a year and can be a decent catcher, and he's got MLB experience. Fryer or Hermann or Pinto have no experience, and I'm not opposed to giving them experience, but make them earn it and maybe share time with someone who does. I don't think makes sense to invest much in bringing in a catcher, but Arrencibia seems like about the right combination of cost and potential.

The more I think about it, I think he's basically Trevor Plouffe, only at catcher. Arencibia is a little better defensively, and little lower average, but a good power potential, and good enough to give a chance too, until he gets expensive or a hot prospect forces him to the side.

Edited by Craig in MN, 03 December 2013 - 10:56 AM.


#24 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 8,072 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 11:20 AM

"earn it" meaning what? Being good in the minors, and great in his audtion, or something else? I worry that signing a guy like him makes him the starter, and Pinto the backup, at least with this organization. As for "plan B"....it doesn't matter if your starting CF is Pressly, your starting 3B is Plouffe, your DH is Doumit, and your SS is Floriman. That offense isn't competing w/o some changes. This offense was awful last year, and so far all they've done is hope for a healthier Mauer and Willingham.

IF you sign a legit OF or DH, then maybe worry about catcher plan B. Otherwise, Pinto is plan A, with your best defensive C as plan B, and Herrman as plan C and /RF/DH/PH.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#25 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 6,341 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 11:23 AM

Buy low candidates are buy-low for a reason, but you have to look for the hints of a diamond in tht rough. He had a lot of pedigree and was hhighly thought of as recently as last ST. These kinds of moves can come at a low cost and reap high rewards.

#26 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 8,072 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 11:24 AM

As long as Pinto gets a legit shot, I don't really care....but I think JP will continue to be bad at his job, and I'd rather they look elsewhere for help (like OF or DH).

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#27 markos

markos

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 355 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 11:41 AM

Interesting comparison:

From 2011-2012
Player A (25 and 26 seasons):
858 PA, .225/.279/.437, 91 OPS+, 28% K, 6% BB
Player B (26 and 27 seasons):
834 PA, .228/.288/.452, 96 OPS+, 31% K, 7% BB

Player A is Arencibia and Player B is Saltalamacchia.

Now in 2013, Saltalamacchia had a career year while Arencibia was terrible, so it does make some sense that Salty is getting a multi-year deal while Arencibia is available for peanuts.

#28 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,902 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 11:50 AM

People are seriously underrating Arencibia based on his low AVG and poor year last year. He's not Drew Butera. Butera has a sub .500 OPS and has never done anything with his bat in the majors or minors. Arencibia has a very good minor league track record, and 2 good offensive years in the majors, followed by one bad year (with a very poor/unlucky BABIP). It makes no sense to complain about a 59 OPS+ while ignore his previous two years and ignoring that Hermann and Fryer (who are basically the same age) weren't doing well enough in the minors to earn notable MLB playing time at all.


Arencibia's never going to be even a decent AVG guy, and he's never going to be an all star, but he averages 20 HRs a year and can be a decent catcher, and he's got MLB experience. Fryer or Hermann or Pinto have no experience, and I'm not opposed to giving them experience, but make them earn it and maybe share time with someone who does. I don't think makes sense to invest much in bringing in a catcher, but Arrencibia seems like about the right combination of cost and potential.

The more I think about it, I think he's basically Trevor Plouffe, only at catcher. Arencibia is a little better defensively, and little lower average, but a good power potential, and good enough to give a chance too, until he gets expensive or a hot prospect forces him to the side.



Arencibia took two fewer walks than Delmon Young last year. And Young had 133 fewer plate appearances. Somehow he has managed to regress on his already terrible .285 OBP in 2011 each of the last two years. This guy just can't get on base.

#29 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 5,019 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 03 December 2013 - 11:55 AM

Interesting comparison:

From 2011-2012
Player A (25 and 26 seasons):
858 PA, .225/.279/.437, 91 OPS+, 28% K, 6% BB
Player B (26 and 27 seasons):
834 PA, .228/.288/.452, 96 OPS+, 31% K, 7% BB

Player A is Arencibia and Player B is Saltalamacchia.

Now in 2013, Saltalamacchia had a career year while Arencibia was terrible, so it does make some sense that Salty is getting a multi-year deal while Arencibia is available for peanuts.


That's part of the reason I don't want the Twins near Saltalamacchia...
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#30 PseudoSABR

PseudoSABR

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 2,063 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 12:58 PM

Darren Wolfson ‏@DarrenWolfson 4m The #MNTwins have made preliminary contact w/ now FA catcher J.P. Arencibia, per a source. Talks haven't gone anywhere. Focus is Salty.

#31 Reider

Reider

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 395 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 01:44 PM

I'd like to see Pinto and Herrmann (more so Pinto) get more playing time in 2014. I'm not against the Twins signing another catcher, but I'm not convinced that Arencibia is the answer. Salty might be okay, but how many years would you have to sign him for and would he be a good fit?

I don't think catcher is an emergency position as they have Pinto/Herrmann/Fryer/Doumit/Mauer (would he catch in a pinch?). But I understand if the team wants to bring a catcher in. I just hope that if / when they do bring a catcher in, they bring one in that actually makes sense.

I'd like to know what the Twins are thinking here..

Edited by Reider, 03 December 2013 - 01:46 PM.


#32 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 01:46 PM

With Hanigan now a Ray along with Molina, it sounds like Jose Lobotan mike be avalible
A switch hitting 29 year old from the same country as Pinto was positive O-WAR and D-WAR
for his career, could be cheap signing

#33 johnnydakota

johnnydakota

    Banned

  • Banned
  • 1,498 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 02:30 PM

With Hanigan now a Ray along with Molina, it sounds like Jose Lobotan mike be avalible
A switch hitting 29 year old from the same country as Pinto was positive O-WAR and D-WAR
for his career, could be cheap signing


Well apperently the White Sox had the same idea as I did , he was just traded to them:angry:

#34 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,522 posts

Posted 03 December 2013 - 05:39 PM

Buy low candidates are buy-low for a reason, but you have to look for the hints of a diamond in tht rough. He had a lot of pedigree and was hhighly thought of as recently as last ST. These kinds of moves can come at a low cost and reap high rewards.


this. He's not going to cost much. Perhaps I just remember him single handedly destroying us in our 2010 home opener, but I'd think he's worth the risk if he's cheap...

#35 Guest_USAFChief_*

Guest_USAFChief_*
  • Guests

Posted 04 December 2013 - 07:32 AM

Buy low candidates are buy-low for a reason, but you have to look for the hints of a diamond in tht rough. He had a lot of pedigree and was hhighly thought of as recently as last ST. These kinds of moves can come at a low cost and reap high rewards.

Concur.

looking backward at what a player has done is, of course, part of the process. But the far more important, and difficult part, is looking forward and trying to figure out what he's likely to do. Or, in cases like this, what he potentially might do.

#36 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 6,341 posts

Posted 04 December 2013 - 07:39 AM

Concur.

looking backward at what a player has done is, of course, part of the process. But the far more important, and difficult part, is looking forward and trying to figure out what he's likely to do. Or, in cases like this, what he potentially might do.


Right, I'm sure some Oriole fans trashed Davis at the time of the trade too. Arencibia has some awful warts, but if you look past that at his recent hype, minor league numbers, etc. - there are plenty of reason to take a gamble.

#37 BigTrane

BigTrane

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 242 posts

Posted 04 December 2013 - 08:02 AM

Why not?

Er, he has no bat?
The JAYS kicked him to the curb, covered in poutine?

Where's the upside?
Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

#38 70charger

70charger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,282 posts

Posted 04 December 2013 - 10:53 AM

Why not?

Er, he has no bat?
The JAYS kicked him to the curb, covered in poutine?

Where's the upside?


The upside is clearly the free poutine.

#39 BigTrane

BigTrane

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 242 posts

Posted 04 December 2013 - 11:03 AM

You rock my world!
Feel free to pile on about Suzuki.

#40 jay

jay

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,429 posts

Posted 04 December 2013 - 11:39 AM

This would be easier if J.P. was a lefty or switch-hitter and could at least platoon some with Pinto. I wouldn't mind bringing him in, but if the Twins do that, it needs to be a conscious decision to bring in J.P. over someone else and drop either Herrmann or Fryer from the 40-man.

I could go either way with that decision, but keeping Herrmann would be the call. Fryer and Herrmann actually have very similar MiLB offensive numbers:
.267/.358/.404 (54 SB, 544 G) vs .258/.349/.372 (20 SB, 483 G)
Herrmann has more or less played each level a year younger. He also provides the added value of being a lefty and positional flexibility.