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Article: Expectations and Phil Hughes

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#21 sconnytwinsfan

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 07:00 PM

I like that the approach so far has been to get veteran arms, who are in their prime, who fit well as mid-rotation guys. That doesn't mean that I'm not hoping they pull off a Homer Bailey trade or Matt Garza signing. It would be amazing and I think getting a guy like Bailey (who has already "arrived) is likely worth the thought of including Gibson or May or Berrios in the deal. But for now the idea should still be that Meyer & Gibson (or maybe May) are intended to fill that 1 & 2 slot in 2015 or 2016 with Nolasco & Hughes moving down the line. If you think about it that way, then Hughes even settling in as a .500 pitcher making 28-33 starts and pitching 175-200 innings at a 4.10-4.25 ERA would make him a steal on this deal. Put another way....remember Nick Blackburn of 2008-2009? 22-22 with a 4.04 and 402 innings? Is there anyone who wouldn't pay $8 million a year to get that production from a starter on this rotation now? Is there anyone who doesn't at least like Hughes' chances of getting close and vastly outperforming the 28 & 29 year old Nick Blackburn? I know he's a completely different kind of pitcher, but he misses WAY more bats. The big question is can Rick Anderson revive his reputation by helping Hughes develop a plus second pitch.

#22 sconnytwinsfan

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 07:05 PM

Here's my other question:

There have been rumors about the Nats shopping Denard. Right Field defense looks like it's going to be more essential to team success right now. The lack of a lead-off guy also hurt the lineup last year. Wouldn't it make sense to go out and get him back if he's available? Willingham and Doumit are likely to be trade bait this year. And ultimately, whoever you give up to get him back, will essentially be ALL that you gave up to get Alex Meyer. I'm fairly certain the Nats aren't thinking they'll get that kid of return back. But even one of the A level starters might be worth the move. He's a great clubhouse guy and putting him in right will instantly mean less runs scored against us than sending Arcia out to patrol that wall.

#23 Badsmerf

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 09:50 PM

I'm excited about Hughes. If the figures of the deal are 3/24 I don't see how there is anything to not like. The worst you're getting is a below average starter, with his potential being much higher. I don't think he can be considered potential top of the rotation arm, but he is young enough and has the talent to be pretty good for the Twins. If he can sit around a 4 ERA I would be pretty happy his production.

#24 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 10:17 PM

Here's my other question:

There have been rumors about the Nats shopping Denard. Right Field defense looks like it's going to be more essential to team success right now. The lack of a lead-off guy also hurt the lineup last year. Wouldn't it make sense to go out and get him back if he's available? Willingham and Doumit are likely to be trade bait this year. And ultimately, whoever you give up to get him back, will essentially be ALL that you gave up to get Alex Meyer. I'm fairly certain the Nats aren't thinking they'll get that kid of return back. But even one of the A level starters might be worth the move. He's a great clubhouse guy and putting him in right will instantly mean less runs scored against us than sending Arcia out to patrol that wall.


You can google 2 or 3 scouting reports which project Arcia as no worse than an average outfielder. The Twins don't seem concerned.

#25 Old Twins Cap

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 10:38 PM

So, when Target Field opened, I thought I remember there being a dearth of opposite field homeruns, like only a couple for the entire season. Now, Yankee Stadium, for a right handed hitter, how many have we seen from Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and company? Point is: Yeah, Hughes gives up his homers, and then "bloggers" list RH vs LH, pointing out how many are hit by RH, but what about the opposite field homeruns in each park? Especially a straight fast ball pitcher would be subject to opposite field homeruns, and I can remember Hughes giving up some big ones, even one Ichiro should have caught that hit the very top of the wall against the hated Red Sox. Won't happen that much at Target Field, especially in cold weather. I can guarantee it.

#26 Ultima Ratio

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Posted 02 December 2013 - 11:34 PM

So, when Target Field opened, I thought I remember there being a dearth of opposite field homeruns, like only a couple for the entire season. Now, Yankee Stadium, for a right handed hitter, how many have we seen from Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and company? Point is: Yeah, Hughes gives up his homers, and then "bloggers" list RH vs LH, pointing out how many are hit by RH, but what about the opposite field homeruns in each park? Especially a straight fast ball pitcher would be subject to opposite field homeruns, and I can remember Hughes giving up some big ones, even one Ichiro should have caught that hit the very top of the wall against the hated Red Sox. Won't happen that much at Target Field, especially in cold weather. I can guarantee it.


That all depends on whether the stadium concrete has cured yet. At least that's what we've been told.
Man is born free, but everywhere he is in chains.

#27 Sleestax

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 01:07 AM

Ah heck. Glad to have him. Didnt Frankie Viola give up the most home runs in the league for a few years? Hughes is just hitting his prime with a hell of a lot of experience. I agree..this is a win signing for the Twins. By midseason next year people may find it hard to imagine the rotation without him. go twins. Trade for Stanton.....trade for Price..one of the two!

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 07:30 AM

So, when Target Field opened, I thought I remember there being a dearth of opposite field homeruns, like only a couple for the entire season. Now, Yankee Stadium, for a right handed hitter, how many have we seen from Derek Jeter, A-Rod, and company? Point is: Yeah, Hughes gives up his homers, and then "bloggers" list RH vs LH, pointing out how many are hit by RH, but what about the opposite field homeruns in each park? Especially a straight fast ball pitcher would be subject to opposite field homeruns, and I can remember Hughes giving up some big ones, even one Ichiro should have caught that hit the very top of the wall against the hated Red Sox. Won't happen that much at Target Field, especially in cold weather. I can guarantee it.


A very valid point that isn't brought up often enough. Ballparks favor different hitters despite, on paper, looking like the Grand Canyon for other same-handed hitters.

For example, Joe Mauer might OPS .950 every season in Fenway, despite the park profiing pretty similarly to TF for left-handed pull hitters.

For right-handed spray or oppo-field hitters, Yankee Stadium prints money. Lefties aren't the only players who get to take advantage of that right field porch.

#29 spycake

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Posted 03 December 2013 - 01:45 PM

I kind of like that Hughes is a flyball pitcher. The Twins always seem to target groundballers, and I think that has backfired on them a few times. Good to know the front office is keeping an open mind in that regard. (Though I wonder if we'll hear "Hughes needs to get the ball down in the zone" all the time, like we did with Baker :) )

It would have been nice to get one guy among our major acquisitions whose rWAR/bWAR matched his fWAR, but if nothing else, this should be a lot more interesting to watch and discuss than the last couple seasons rotations (whose rWAR may have matched their fWAR but both were pretty lousy!). The Twins seem to have staked out a position for once, in favor of xFIP... never thought I'd say that...