Correia wasn't the total disaster that I thought he would be (and I did think that, as I wagered $100 that his ERA at the end of the season would be 4.50+, and it was as late in the season as early September). I will happily say that in 2013, he held up his end of the bargain and was of value to the Twins. I won't quite as easily say that he will repeat it again in 2014.
Upon looking at his Fangraphs player profile, I noticed that he stranded an awful lot of baserunners in '13--76.1% compared to his career rate of 71.9% and a league-average rate of around 70 to 72%, depending on the season. I, for one, don't really believe that stranding runners on base is a skill, just as I don't believe RBIs are a skill. I think it has more to do with luck and random distribution of outs/hits than anything else. Long story short, I think that number regresses back to the mean, which is to say he will strand between 70 and 72% of runners. In fact, the Steamer projection system really believes he will regress in that regard, projecting a LOB% of 65.9%. This spells trouble for Correia in 2014.
I certainly could be wrong. I have been before, many times. But, I'm still not sold on Correia for 2014. TR was half-right on Correia. Whether that was due to scouting or just pure variance of his career numbers, 2013 was good. And at $4.5M, he was worth the money he was paid. However, if you want to buy into what I just wrote, there's reason to believe he may not be as good in 2014. Now, at the current going rate for +1 WAR which is believed to be around $5M and trending upward, it would be tough for him to be a net loss at $5.5M in 2014. I guess what I'm arguing is that Terry Ryan has gotten about what he paid for in this deal so far, and likely will again in 2014, which is to say he paid for a slightly above replacement-level starter.
I really wasn't planning on writing a novel here, but I guess I got carried away