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It's not delivery, its Deduno...

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#61 longstrangetrip

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 01:28 PM

Ha, I agree with both of you...but sometimes major league managers act in a way they are expected to, not in the way they should.

#62 tobi0040

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 02:56 PM

As a starter with the Twins his SIERA in 2012 was 5.04 and in 2013 4.13. Career average, including his RP stints is 4.47.

Here is the SIERA table from here:

[TABLE="width: 200, align: center"]
[TR="bgcolor: #edf1f3"]
[TH]Rating
[/TH]
[TH]SIERA
[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Excellent
[/TD]
[TD]2.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Great
[/TD]
[TD]3.25
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Above Average
[/TD]
[TD]3.75
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Average
[/TD]
[TD]3.90
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Below Average
[/TD]
[TD]4.20
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Poor
[/TD]
[TD]4.50
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #ffffff"]
[TD]Awful
[/TD]
[TD]5.00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

So his best season was up to below average, career average is at the poor level and the season before he was awful. If that does not scream replacement level, I don't know what does...

FIP, tRA, xFIP all saying the same story.

Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...


I think some of the predictive stats penalize a pitcher like Deduno, who has good movement. They may not get a ton of K's, but players don't square them up.

Allow me to provide one, extreme example:

Mariano Rivera towards the end of his career. Notice the huge gap between ERA and xFIP.
[TABLE="width: 192"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]ERA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]xFIP[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, width: 64, bgcolor: transparent"]K/9[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2010[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.80[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3.52[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]6.75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2011[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]1.91[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2.64[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8.8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2012[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2.16[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3.48[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]8.64[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2013[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]2.11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]3.09[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]7.59[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


Career 2.20 ERA and xFIP of 3.00.

#63 jimv2

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:17 PM

I guess I'll be the naysayer here. I think Deduno is ripe for regression. His 5.6K/9, 3.4BB/9 and 1.352 WHIP all hint at luck more than stuff. Deduno survived because he got groundballs 59.7% of the time. That would easily have been the best in baseball if he had qualified. That seems likely to regress some. When that happens his HR/9 rate will increase as well.


Deduno isn't a control artist. His command is well below average. So he walks people, and he can't consistently put pitches where the hitter can't get it, and thus fewer swinging strikes. That causes the stats you quoted.

But on the flip side, his ball has so much movement that it's really hard to square up on. So the batter is going to get a piece of it, which should translate into lots of ground balls and pop-ups. And some of those are going to find holes, which elevates WHIP but keeps HR/9 low. So I think his stats/results are a normal function of how he pitches, and that he wouldn't be ripe for regression. The risk for him is that his control worsens and he can't control strikes, or that the movement on his pitches lessens to the extent that batters can square up, and then he'll get shelled. But those typeis or risks exists for all pitchers to some extent.

#64 Physics Guy

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 04:39 PM

Not that he cannot be a 5th starter in the majors. That's replacement level in most places. My point is that Worley is likely at least at that level, has had success and has still to enter his prime, so he is better suited than Deduno for that spot.

And, yes, he is fun to watch pitching. Nobody denies that. Juan Morillo was fun to watch too...


Have you watched Worley pitch this spring? I haven't watched him at all, but his stats this spring are well below average and maybe not even as good as awful. I'll take my chances with Deduno at this point.

#65 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 05:35 PM

Worley will be placed on waivers soon, I'm surprised he hasn't already. Deduno has a lock on the 5th spot IMO. I was hoping we would cut bait with Diamond as well since he doesn't project well in the pen. I suppose some of those bad splits will be covered up if he's in the long relief role.

#66 kab21

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 06:36 PM

I remember these same 'he gets weak contact' arguments being made when Blackburn had a 3.00ish ERA at midseason so many years ago. Probably the same argument for Diamond at some point. The margin for error is just too low when you aren't getting K's.

I like Deduno a lot as a #5 that isn't guaranteed any money. He might give us a couple of very valuable seasons but he shouldn't be depended on.

At this point the only way Worley stays with the team is if he ends up on the DL imo. He found ways to get K's but there were warning signs (low swinging strike %).

#67 Physics Guy

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 06:41 PM

Yeah, I'm not sure Diamond fits the bullpen well. It has worked out well for many failed starters in the past: Hawkins, Guardado, Perkins, even Swarzak.

#68 cmathewson

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 08:43 PM

Have you watched Worley pitch this spring? I haven't watched him at all, but his stats this spring are well below average and maybe not even as good as awful. I'll take my chances with Deduno at this point.


I nave watched him. Watched him last night. He was worse than batting practice. I've slso watched Diamond. He couldn't hit his spots to save his life. If you want to take some one besides Deduno, take Gibson. No one else is worth consideration. I can see Deduno in the bullpen to start the year, with Gibson as the fifth starter. But it's only a matter of time before Deduno is a mainstay.
"If you'da been thinkin' you wouldn't 'a thought that.."

#69 Oxtung

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:04 PM

Have you watched Worley pitch this spring? I haven't watched him at all, but his stats this spring are well below average and maybe not even as good as awful. I'll take my chances with Deduno at this point.


To be fair to Thyrlos, he wrote that last November.

#70 Oxtung

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:07 PM

Deduno isn't a control artist. His command is well below average. So he walks people, and he can't consistently put pitches where the hitter can't get it, and thus fewer swinging strikes. That causes the stats you quoted.

But on the flip side, his ball has so much movement that it's really hard to square up on. So the batter is going to get a piece of it, which should translate into lots of ground balls and pop-ups. And some of those are going to find holes, which elevates WHIP but keeps HR/9 low. So I think his stats/results are a normal function of how he pitches, and that he wouldn't be ripe for regression. The risk for him is that his control worsens and he can't control strikes, or that the movement on his pitches lessens to the extent that batters can square up, and then he'll get shelled. But those typeis or risks exists for all pitchers to some extent.


We'll see. It's a long season and we're still in spring training. As Kab said, there are many pitchers before that have had similar profiles that have fallen apart because they lose just a little bit of magic.

#71 Sconnie

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 10:19 PM

I think Deduno benefits from being in the bullpen. It limits the control issues impact on the game, and allows him to focus on two pitches rather than three or four.

#72 Physics Guy

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:30 PM

To be fair to Thyrlos, he wrote that last November.


Wow, didn't notice the thread was that old. Clearly opinions have changed since then. My bad.

#73 Jham

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Posted 19 March 2014 - 11:39 PM

A couple things. We all love the latest greatest metrics or we wouldn't waste our time on these blogs. That said, i would hope everyone here still enjoys watching the players play more than checking the box scores and entering data for anova regression analysis.

Deduno was our best pitcher last year statistically, metrically, and to the eye test. Sustainability is a question mark. But his performance last year has earned him the right to back it up. I sure hope the team is bringing him out of the pen because of his shoulder and not because they want to keep him there. He'll be a better as a starter where he can relax and play with tempo and pace without overthrowing the ball.

And let's face it, we probably don't want him coming in cold with the bases loaded and having to throw strikes. If Diamond or Worley start, he will almost certainly be asked to enter the game in this exact situation by either the 2nd inning for Vanimal or the 4th inning for Diamond.