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Twins Minor League Breakout Candidates

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:51 AM

Who do you see as breakout candidates in the Twins farm system?

Pitchers: I like Brett Lee and Jorge Felix.

hitters: I think Kepler will have a big year and Stuart Turner could surprise with the bat.

who do you think will take a big step forward as a prospect in 2014?

#2 cmathewson

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:22 AM

Trevor May, Aaron Hicks, Kohl Stewart, Jon Gonsalves
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#3 beckmt

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:23 AM

I am thinking that Stewart ends the year in New Britian and Gonsalves and Thorpe end the year in Fort Myers(much closer to Minnesota than would be believed).
Hitters I feel that Vargas could be in Rochester by the end of the year, also think Minier will be further along than we think and will be in New Britian or Rochester by the end of the year.

#4 Thrylos

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:35 AM

Felix is not a secret :) I'd argue that 2013 was his breakout season.

Pitchers:

Josh Burris (converted to a starter last season in E-town) in CR and if he gets his control in place he will surprise.

Brian Gilbert
who would likely start the season as the CR closer moving up to the same position in Fort Myers and will more than keep up with the Joneses.

Trevor May. He has to. Period. And he will, if he focuses 100% on baseball.


Position players:

Really high on Turner, btw. I have him ranked as the highest C prospect in the Twins' system. Pinto excluded.

Amaurys Minier. He will spend the season in E-town and put Sano-like numbers in HR (20) and K (77) at the same age (18) at the same place.

Kenys Vargas. The newly expectant father will put Mike Cuddyer-like (2001) numbers in New Britain. In other words he would repeat his Beloit season up there. And finally will get the respect he deserves in the prospect rankings and maybe even a September call up like Pinto.

JD Williams. Starts the season in Fort Myers and moves to New Britain. Has a close to 20 (2B)/20 (HR)/20 (SB) total season. The Twins are thinking on converting him to 2B (again).

Edited by Thrylos, 29 November 2013 - 10:39 AM.

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#5 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:44 AM

I would love to see Turner's bat come around.

I know this isn't really going out on too much of a limb, but I think Kohl Stewart will be rested and be amazing this year. Also, I am going to say that Niko Goodrum will have a breakout season. He has always had the tools and athleticism, just not the production. Everything will click and he will become a top 75-100 prospect.

#6 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 11:33 AM

I am thinking that Stewart ends the year in New Britian and Gonsalves and Thorpe end the year in Fort Myers(much closer to Minnesota than would be believed).
Hitters I feel that Vargas could be in Rochester by the end of the year, also think Minier will be further along than we think and will be in New Britian or Rochester by the end of the year.


I'll agree on Vargas, but if any of the rest of those happen, I will be shocked! Go salves to Ft. Myers could happen, though unlikely. Same with Stewart. Miniver will play for Etown. If he gets to Cedar Rapids I'd be surprised. Same with Thorpe, though he might get to Cedar Rapids.

#7 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 12:37 PM

This is a fun thread.

I really like that people are that high on Vargas. Wasn't sure if his bat was quick enough for him to keep moving along. Apparently a number of you think it is.

Nice.

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#8 Rosterman

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 12:40 PM

The Twins definitely saw a bat in Bargas, even though he is blocked at first by Mauer, now. Look for Turner to maybe even make us forget about Pinto.

I'm hoping for a breakout season from Travis Harrison, Levin Michael and Alex Wimmers. Of course, we all want to see Aaron Hicks be the 4-tool player he was hyped to be.

Berrios is someone to watch.

And I secretly always felt B.J. Hermsen had major league back-of-the-rotation material. I hope he pulls his act together and pulls a Perkins rather than a Slama.
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#9 lightfoot789

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 01:00 PM

I think Brett Lee will establish himself as a strong pitching prospect in the system with his consistency and ability to get outs (AA by seasons end); Matt Thomshaw knows how to pitch and will surprise in his AA debut; Although a breakout prospect in 2013 - Adam Brett Walker will improve his BB rate and put up solid production numbers as he advances through AA by years end. Possible September Call Up

#10 lightfoot789

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 01:03 PM

Polanco will take advantage of Rosario suspension and surprise faster than expected.

#11 Twinsoholic

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 01:25 PM

I would hope that Hudson Boyd learns to be a strong starting pitcher, and I Hope Harrison adds more poser and at least 25 points to his batting average. The other breakout player needs to be Corey Williams.

Two others to keep an eye on are the Florida high school outfielder taken around round 20 a couple of years ago and summers at AA (also hope Baxendale improves at AA).

#12 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 02:06 PM

Good stuff you guys! I'm watching Turner, Eades, and May.

#13 Thrylos

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 02:27 PM

Two others to keep an eye on are the Florida high school outfielder taken around round 20 a couple of years ago and summers at AA (also hope Baxendale improves at AA).


Zach Larson? Yeah. He is a lot like Joe Benson but will a little less range at CF, but he projects. Excellent 2013. 2014 would be an interesting season in Cedar Rapids.
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#14 P.J842

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 04:08 PM

thoughts on Gibson, Hendricks, Wimmers, Logan

#15 P.J842

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 04:26 PM

How about Gibson, Wimmers, Hendricks, Logan, etc. when might the Twins move these guys...

#16 P.J842

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 04:29 PM

Gibson, Hendricks, Wimmers, Logan, Boyd all should move up....

#17 Monkeypaws

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 05:14 PM

Who do you see as breakout candidates in the Twins farm system?

Pitchers: I like Brett Lee and Jorge Felix.

hitters: I think Kepler will have a big year and Stuart Turner could surprise with the bat.

who do you think will take a big step forward as a prospect in 2014?


I like these 2 picks.

#18 kab21

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:02 PM

I'm not understanding the optimism with Turner. He was a 3rd rd (projected lower) college catcher with a defensive rep. If I was picking a catching breakout then it would be Navaretto. He had makeup issues so he dropped but he has quite a bit of raw skill.

#19 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:10 PM

This is a fun thread.

I really like that people are that high on Vargas. Wasn't sure if his bat was quick enough for him to keep moving along. Apparently a number of you think it is.

Nice.


That, along with his slow feet and poor footwork remain questions, but he does have power from both sides of the plate. He's a DH.

#20 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:11 PM

And I secretly always felt B.J. Hermsen had major league back-of-the-rotation material. I hope he pulls his act together and pulls a Perkins rather than a Slama.


I'm with you. I think he was more affected by the oblique injury he had in spring training. He needs impeccable control and movement and I think he lost those things. He's a hard worker, and I think he'll be OK.

#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:14 PM

How about Gibson, Wimmers, Hendricks, Logan, etc. when might the Twins move these guys...


Move them where? I expect Gibson will do well in the big leagues all (or at least most) of the season). Hendriks has an option left and deserves another He's got a chance.

#22 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:15 PM

I'm not understanding the optimism with Turner. He was a 3rd rd (projected lower) college catcher with a defensive rep. If I was picking a catching breakout then it would be Navaretto. He had makeup issues so he dropped but he has quite a bit of raw skill.


College Catcher of the Year, 4th leading hitter in the SEC at .372. I don't recall him being much of a reach. The Twins were linked to every top catcher in the draft and this is the one that fit their draft board.

Edited by howieramone, 29 November 2013 - 08:31 PM.


#23 Seth Stohs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 08:16 PM

I'm not understanding the optimism with Turner. He was a 3rd rd (projected lower) college catcher with a defensive rep. If I was picking a catching breakout then it would be Navaretto. He had makeup issues so he dropped but he has quite a bit of raw skill.


It depends on your definition of 'breakout.' I think the hope for Turner's offense is low, but I think he can be OK, and I think he could move up quickly, several levels next year. I like Navarreto much better as a prospect. I think I had Navarreto 10-15 spots higher, but he'll likely go to Elizabethton, or may even repeat in the GCL. I think he'll be good.

#24 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:06 PM

I like Navarreto much better as a prospect. I think I had Navarreto 10-15 spots higher, but he'll likely go to Elizabethton, or may even repeat in the GCL. I think he'll be good.


I like Navarreto a lot more than most (he was a personal cheeseball of mine), but I still have Turner ranked higher. (He made my top 20; Navaretto never was even strongly considered.) Of course all prospect lists are dependent on how you view ceiling/floors of certain players. There is a chance Navaretto could reach his ceiling and be an All-Star, but it's slim, while it's likely Turner makes the major leagues and at the least be a defensively-strong back-up catcher. If he hits at all, he's a second-divison regular at worst and that could happen as soon as the summer of 2015.

Anyway, I came here to play the game and here are my choices in reverse alphabetical order:

Alex Wimmers: I think/hope Wimmers is able to get his changeup back. His fastball might not be as good as it was, but if he can get his changeup back to even 80% of what it used to be, he'll be a guy that recoups some of the value that he had. I still haven't given up hope that he can be a serviceable starter and even stick in a big-league bullpen if he's drafted in the Rule 5 draft, though another fall procedure did set him back a little bit. He should still be ready to go when Spring Training roles around. I'd like to see the Twins make him a non-roster invite.

Tyler Stirewalt: Raw, but electric. It wouldn't shock me if we saw Stirewalt get a chance to start, but I think his home is at the back of the bullpen. His fastball/slider mix might become the talk of the minor league camp - if it wasn't the talk of instructs already.

Miguel Antonio Gonzalez: Gonzalez was the big addition in the 2011 International class... and he totally sucked in the DSL in 2012. He moved to the bullpen in the GCL last year and was lights out. I hope he gets another shot to start and wouldn't be shocked if he made it to Cedar Rapids this year.

Brian Gilbert: Gilbert's gonna be a stud. He's a bulldog. Yet I'm not sure if I want to see him every fifth day or at the end of games. I agree with Thrylos, though his stuff is different, he might end the year closer to the bigs than any of us expected.

Lewin Diaz: My only hitter... and probably a cheap one. Diaz is going to be so much better in the GCL than Minier was this year. I'm hoping they at least give him a shot to play his way out of the outfield and to first base, but even if he has to play 1B, he has the hit tool to settle there. (On an aside: I would like to see the Twins keep Minier in the GCL and move Diaz and Minier together... maybe to E-town later in the summer.)

#25 Tibs

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 09:28 PM

J.D. Williams, Niko Goodrum, Bryan Haar, Dereck Rodriguez

Alex Wimmers, Aaron Slegers, Kuo Hua Lo, Austin Malinowski

#26 lightfoot789

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:28 PM

ok ok ok my final choice - Tim Shibuya was lights out for CR and will progres fast through the next stop (A+). Fast Riser and my surprise pick for end of the year Twins All Star 2014. Remember I called it :)

#27 DocBauer

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Posted 29 November 2013 - 10:29 PM

Great thread but a difficult one. I love to follow the Twins minors but simply don't have the knowledge of Seth and Jeremy and others. However....

Kohl Stewart. Might be an easy pick, but this kid, healthy and his head on straight, is primed for a big year. I suspect he'll finish a Ft Myers.

Gonsalves. I think the Twins pounced while other teams slept. I think they really found something there.

Goodrum. The talent is there in spades. I think the light is coming on.

Thorpe. Just a gut feeling, and he is a ways away, but again, I think the Twins really found something.

Turner. I keep thinking we found another Bob Boone type with a little better bat. A guy who will hit a little, work the count, provide a little power, and provide great defense. A solid year this season, and grow even more next season once he has his professional legs under him. Solid this year and a fast riser next year.

Kepler. The talent is there absolutely. But we all new it was raw and would take some time. Unfortunately, injury interrupted his development. What really pleased and surprised me was his play in the AFL. He showed nothing special, but he was facing talent 2 levels higher than anything before and showed some discipline and ability. I think this is the year he really starts to shine.

Wimmers. There has always been doubts about the ceiling for this potentially solid young athlete. And then the injury bug hit him in a bad way. But I have always seen another Tapani in this kid. And a year plus removed from his rehab I see a potential fast riser.

#28 goulik

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 09:53 AM

DocBauer, I think you nailed the best candidates!

#29 kab21

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 10:52 AM

Great thread but a difficult one. I love to follow the Twins minors but simply don't have the knowledge of Seth and Jeremy and others. However....

Kohl Stewart.

Gonsalves.

Goodrum.

Thorpe.

Turner.

Kepler.

Wimmers.


I am expecting big things out of Stewart and Thorpe. The Twins aren't there yet but I think next offseason prospect sites might be talking about how strong the Twins MiLB pitching is with Stewart, Thorpe, Berrios, Gonsalves and a few others. And maybe an elite arm at #5 in the draft. Meyer hopefully graduates.

Gonsalves is at the top of my watch list. Kind of similar to Thorpe before last season. A lot of potential.

Goodrum - He has the physical tools but I think this is the year that Polanco leaves him in the rear view mirror on the MI prospect depth chart.

Kepler - could be due for a big breakout if he can have a healthy season. I have always been a big fan.

Wimmers - who knows. had talent and could come back after a disastrous pro start

#30 Jim H

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Posted 30 November 2013 - 02:20 PM

I am not the minor league guy most of you are. Given that, I kind of think the minor league breakout pitcher could come from a group of young 20's starters like Atherton, Duffy, Melotakis, Summers, Baxendale and Lee. That is pretty big group, and I don't know which one will figure it out. But these guys have had some success and I expect one of them will jump up a couple of levels this year and maintain success as they or he moves up.

Among the position players I like D. J. Hicks, Goodrum, J.D Williams,and Kvasnicka. This the year for these guys. They have all been in pro ball for awhile, none have had sustained success, all have certain recognized talents amd it is about time for them to turn their talent into skills that can be sustained. If it doesn't happen soon for these guys, it probably won't. Still, if they all take that next step forward, the Twins system would look even better.