In 2013 the Twins ranked at the bottom of the AmericanLeague in ERA. For 2014 we just signed a200 inning pitcher likely to have an ERA in the high 3.00’s maybe 4.00 how will that affect our pitching going into next year and how much will having a 2ndpitcher such as Capuano if not Garza affect the staff as well? Signing the first pitcher was HUGE. Last year we had 30 starts go to DeVries, Hernandez, Walters, and Hendriks for a combined total of innings 158.33 innings with 123 earned runs allowed. I know that there would likely have been a few spot starts with these guys this year and there were a few games they played well in, however replacing that production with the production of a pitcher who gave up 82 runs in 199 innings will end up up saving the team approximately 50-60 earned runs off of the total team ERA.
With the 2ndpitcher it becomes a little harder to determine the effect without diving into different points of the season when decisions could be made such as would theTwins pulled the plug on Pelfry earlier with these 2 new pitchers on the staffas well? How many starts would Gibson receivedas bad as he pitched last year? How manystarts would Diamond have received? (remember he started off the same as lastyear through 5 starts then went down hill). I am guestimating that we would have saved another 20 – 30 runs even with Capuano starting over what we had last year (assuming 165 innings and 4.00ERA). (This would be a fun debatable point) That would have had the team giving up 643 – 663 earned runs in approx. 1450 innings for an ERA around 3.99 to 4.12. We would be just shy of having a 90 win potential pitching staff as Cleveland had the highest team ERA at 3.82 for 90 game winning teams. With Deduno likely to get more than 160 innings this year if his arm holds up and improvements from Gibson and the arrival of Meyer at some point next year and a bullpen that is not over taxed with reinforcements (numerous arms available inAAA) if necessary. Also I don’t know much about Johnson (the pitcher acquired from Pittsburgh a week or so ago) but I would rather he be our 6th/7th starter who gets calledup for spot starts with his 90+ fastball over Walters and his 88-89 mph fastball. I suspect we will likely have that pitching staff next season that can allow us to win 90 games if our offense produces enough to get us there. We scored only 614 runs last season good for 14th place in the AL. And that looks to be our big question fornext season once Terry Ryan finishes with the pitching staff.
Edited by Brandon, 28 November 2013 - 10:53 AM.