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Homer Bailey

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#1 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:27 PM

MLBTR report that the Twins are keen on him, he would be avail in a trade from Cinci, assuming the Twins could sign him to an extension (5 years starting in 2015) I think going after him would be a no brainer. He is young, and has finally lived up to his talent the last two years, improving each year. His ERA/FIP/XFIP last year was 3.47/3.31/3.34 and his k/9 was 8.57 bb/2.33

With Cinci more or less aggressively shopping Phillips in trade talks, they are going to have a need for a 2B pretty quickly.

Would a package centered around Rosario (top 70 prospect) along with Gibson and a guy like Walker be enough to get conversations started? Would you need to add a guy like Pinto/Berrios into the mix as well instead of Walker?

I would give up basically anyone not named Sano, Buxton, Stewart or Meyer for him at this point in a heartbeat.

IMO Bailey along with an extension seems like the PERFECT acquisition for the Twins, he gives you a real nice #2/poor mans Ace moving forward.

#2 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:29 PM

I would go Rosario and Gibson , not to sure If I would give up more then that unless we could sign him prior to the trade

#3 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:30 PM

I agree, this is the one to get.

#4 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:31 PM

We may need to rope in a 3rd party to take Philips.

Yankees?

#5 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:34 PM

Also I know there is a lot of talk about Bailey wanting to hit the market, however if you offer him 5/88 extension (Sanchez money) prior to the start of 2014 season I think he HAS to listen.

Actually, you could prob go 6/95 (rip up his 2014 contract) to help offset some of the costs moving forward/spread it out (he would be due about 4 mil this year in arb)

#6 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:38 PM

We may need to rope in a 3rd party to take Philips.

Yankees?


I don't think they would need to trade Phillips at the same time, Phillips won't be the easiest guy in the world to move due to his contract but its really not that awful (4 years 51 mil) but whoever loses out on the Cano sweepstakes would prob take him if Cinci kicks in a bit of money.

#7 Brad Swanson

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:43 PM

I'd love to keep Gibson and offer Berrios, but I could see where Cincinnati would want a more MLB-ready starter. I'd do bad things to get Bailey. I think he's really good. I'd go 6/100 if that's what it took.

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#8 Riverbrian

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:46 PM

I'm a big fan of Bailey. I agree with the players that a VD lists as untouchable and I will add Gibson to that list because I think we would need Gibby right now.

Anyone else... I'd consider. Bring me Homer.
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#9 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:49 PM

If they bring Chapman into the rotation then they might like a lefty reliever to fill his spot in the bullpen.

They did sign Skip Schumacher today too. So they have a lot of infielders.

Corner OF looks like their other weak spot.

#10 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:52 PM

I'm a big fan of Bailey. I agree with the players that a VD lists as untouchable and I will add Gibson to that list because I think we would need Gibby right now.

Anyone else... I'd consider. Bring me Homer.

Gibson shouldn't be untouchable at all when it comes to Bailey IMO. But i would prob give up Berrios instead.

#11 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:52 PM

I agree with the players that a VD lists as untouchable


Yea I don't touch VD's either. That is my rule number one in any, uh, transaction. :P

#12 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 10:56 PM

If they bring Chapman into the rotation then they might like a lefty reliever to fill his spot in the bullpen.

They did sign Skip Schumacher today too. So they have a lot of infielders.

Corner OF looks like their other weak spot.


Skip is more of a super UTIL guy, right? Not exactly a starter any-were at this stage of his career.

They could re-sign Choo if they trade Phillips and Homer, so not sure if corner OF is as large of a need as it appears if they have Choo and Bruce in RF/LF and B Hamilton in CF.

I'd be more than happy to make Perkins the center piece of the trade if that is what they wanted (losing Perkins would suck as I am a big fan, but it wouldn't be to heartbreaking to part with) Not sure I'd be thrilled to add in Rosario as well in that deal however. Maybe Perkins+Gibson or Perkins+Berrios?

#13 Brandon

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:00 PM

So we sign Arroyo and trade for Bailey and acquire 40% of Cincinnati's rotation.

#14 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:06 PM

So we sign Arroyo and trade for Bailey and acquire 40% of Cincinnati's rotation.


I'd rather just take the good half of that 40% ;)

#15 notoriousgod71

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:14 PM

Yes, if Bailey would agree to an extension I would absolutely love to acquire him.

#16 Willihammer

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:26 PM

They could re-sign Choo if they trade Phillips and Homer, so not sure if corner OF is as large of a need as it appears if they have Choo and Bruce in RF/LF and B Hamilton in CF.


A lateral move, and an expensive one. They have Philips on the books for 4/50 and Choo is going to fetch what, 5/100 or something in that neighborhood?

Would Hammer + Perkins get it done? The Reds would fill 2 holes instead of 1 and cost a lot less. Maybe the Twins could even leverage a prospect or two out of that.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:43 PM

A lateral move, and an expensive one. They have Philips on the books for 4/50 and Choo is going to fetch what, 5/100 or something in that neighborhood?

Would Hammer + Perkins get it done? The Reds would fill 2 holes instead of 1 and cost a lot less. Maybe the Twins could even leverage a prospect or two out of that.


I don't think Hammer has any significant value after coming off his 2013 campaign where he has negative defensive value, and hit shockingly bad. (0.0 WAR overall) I doubt the Twins could get anything more than a C prospect straight up for him at this point. The best bet is to hope he regains some form during the season, and swap him out for a C+ prospect IMO

I don't think its that lateral of a move with Choo/Phillips, Choo will prob cost 5/90 or so and has a significantly better bat then Phillips (who is regressing quite a bit). Choo should move over to the corner OF and should be above average there, and you are looking at a guy who should post a 3.5-4.5 WAR year in and year out for the next few years in LF/RF.

#18 Shane Wahl

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 11:59 PM

This is just an abomination. SIGN a damn pitcher of equal value and don't trade prospects for one. Good god. I like Bailey. If Plouffe, Santana, Baxendale, and Zach Jones could get it done, then by all means. But no top 10 prospects when signing other dudes is perfectly feasible.

If the Twins signed Garza or Jimenez, then Kazmir or Hughes, THEN maybe this becomes a Bailey-for-Rosario and others kind of conversation. But Mike Pelfrey and Kris Johnson are at least 2/3 of the additions to the staff . . . so no.

Bank on the future all out or go big in FREE AGENCY. Don't half-ass this and trade off the damn future. Good lord and a half.

#19 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:21 AM

This is just an abomination. SIGN a damn pitcher of equal value and don't trade prospects for one. Good god. I like Bailey. If Plouffe, Santana, Baxendale, and Zach Jones could get it done, then by all means. But no top 10 prospects when signing other dudes is perfectly feasible.

If the Twins signed Garza or Jimenez, then Kazmir or Hughes, THEN maybe this becomes a Bailey-for-Rosario and others kind of conversation. But Mike Pelfrey and Kris Johnson are at least 2/3 of the additions to the staff . . . so no.

Bank on the future all out or go big in FREE AGENCY. Don't half-ass this and trade off the damn future. Good lord and a half.


The only pitcher of equal value on the market is Garza (and actually I like Bailey more since he is 3 years younger)

Jimenez isn't, Santana certainly isn't, Nolasco isn't even close. The Twins have a ton of depth in the minors, trading away one of the top prospects not named Sano, Buxton, Meyer or Stewart hardly is "trading off the damn future"

#20 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:36 AM

The only pitcher of equal value on the market is Garza (and actually I like Bailey more since he is 3 years younger)

Jimenez isn't, Santana certainly isn't, Nolasco isn't even close. The Twins have a ton of depth in the minors, trading away one of the top prospects not named Sano, Buxton, Meyer or Stewart hardly is "trading off the damn future"


You're a good adversary, Dave. What are you talking about in regards to Bailey's value? He has had two very good seasons in a row, yes. Garza blows Bailey out of the water. Bailey is similar to Jimenez, Santana, and potentially Kazmir and company.

Anyway, do you like the possibility of Plouffe, D. Santana, D.J. Baxendale, and Zach Jones for Bailey? (sub Harrison in for any of the last three)???