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The Return of Mike Pelfrey

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#81 Marta Shearing

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 08:45 AM

Signing Garza and Pelfrey would exceed my expectations. Whats wrong with Garza, Gibson, Deduno, Correia, Pelfrey? With Meyer up by June and May not far behind. From Pelfrey I think they'll get 200 innings and a sub 4 era.

#82 nicksaviking

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 08:45 AM

Listen, the reality is the Twins aren't going to bring in 5 brand new pitchers outside the org for 2014, they aren't going to bring 4, so you are going to have to use some guys that were around in 2013, Pelfrey, for better or worse showed flashes and out performed some of the other internal options (and has a better track record than most of them)


Yes but Pelfrey is also a free agent, so it's not like the Twins are just going back to the stable to fill out the rotation. If signed they would be going out of their way to do so; it would be just as easy to sign a different free agent pitcher.

I don't want Pelfrey back, and certainly not at prices higher than he received last year. That being said, in all honesty if Pelfrey was a terrible pitcher for a different team last year, my interest level in him would probably range somewhere between "Blah" and "Mildly Piqued" simply because I'd be curious about a bounce back season.

Still, I want other options. Part of my disinterest is based on the fear that he would be considered the second best pitcher brought in this offseason which would be unacceptable. The other part would be that this just seems like more evidence that Ryan refuses to leave his comfort zone filled with familiar faces.

But nothing has happened, maybe the Twins really lowballed him and have no plans on increasing the offer.

#83 mike wants wins

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 08:47 AM

Before you call someone a liar, don't you think it would be best to have better than 3rd or 4th hand info. Terry Ryan is one of the most honorable people in baseball, even if our favorite team has lost 90+ games 3 years in a row.


I think I was pretty clear that they EITHER lied, or changed their mind. Not sure how to be more clear on that.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#84 Boom Boom

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 08:56 AM

For me it's not so much about stats, although I wish that the FAs the Twins make offers to weren't so frequently "buy-low, bounce back" candidates.

If the Twins sign Pelfrey again, I'd be bothered that their offseason plan seems to be to re-up and reward the same cast of characters that contributed to the pitiful 2013 team (Gardenhire, Anderson, and Pelfrey).

#85 Steve Penz

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:03 AM

Signing Garza and Pelfrey would exceed my expectations. Whats wrong with Garza, Gibson, Deduno, Correia, Pelfrey? With Meyer up by June and May not far behind. From Pelfrey I think they'll get 200 innings and a sub 4 era.


Nothing. This would be fantastic. Sub 4? That might be a stretch.

#86 stupidloser55

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:04 AM

I'm surprised at all the disbelief in this thread about the Twins bringing back Pelfrey.

I'd like to believe that Ryan has tried to entice other pitchers. I'd like to think he hasn't made an offer to anyone because he's had enough discussions to know that it's going to take 'X' and they are only willing to spend 'Y' so making an offer is pointless. Plus, just to illustrate, look at Dan Haren. He wanted to go back closer to his home. There was just no way the Twins or a team east of Arizona was going to get him unless they were going to pay stupid money.

Here is what I'm getting at. Pelfrey isn't a great option. I think we all agree on that. But the reality is that Diamond can't get a right handed hitter out at any level and even lefties hit the snot out of the ball off him last year. I thought I had heard towards the end of the season that they were going to move him out of the rotation similar to what they did with Duensing. So that leaves at most, Gibson, Deduno, and Correia. We've seen how terrible Swarzak and Hendriks are so those guys are not really options in the rotation anymore. Besides, Swarzak might have found a career as a relief option.

Meyer and May aren't probably going to get called up until June. Who knows what Worley will do and even if he showed some signs of being able to pitch effectively again, that's still only our third starter to pair up with Correia and Deduno. We need more arms. If guys like Arroyo, Garza, and Nolasco aren't coming, then get what you can get. I'm not even remotely excited about a rotation of say, Correia, Pelfrey, Deduno, Gibson, and whoever else, but if that's what they can sign then so be it.

If they could find a way to trade for someone like Bailey, Samarskad;adas;lkjaf, Hellickson, sure, great. But at what cost? I'm not willing to part with anyone like Sano, Buxton, May, or Meyers for any of those pitchers. I probably wouldn't part with Barreiors or Stewart either. Those are our 7 best prospects. They have to be the future of the team for 2015-2017.

#87 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:06 AM

The biggest problem is that all your arguments seemed predicated on a salary that I think is a ridiculous underestimatw. Double your 3M (minimum) and then reassess. Pelfreyis a guaranteed rotation spot if signed. I'd rather not do that until the superior options sign here or elsewhere.


Did I say 3M anywhere? I think i was saying 2 years at 5-6 mil per season. (I'd also prefer a team option for 7 million (500k buyout) for the 3rd year, in the case that he turns it around.

Pelfrey is only a guaranteed rotation spot for the first few months of 2014 if he signs, the overall contract wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to shed (ala Marquis, Blackburn etc)

That's the nice thing about Pelfrey vs a guy like Arroyo, if he sucks/regresses you eat a third of the money.

#88 birdwatcher

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:10 AM

I would bet a good deal of posters here could do the job better. Unfortunately not one of us will ever get that chance.


Do you REALLY believe this? Wow.

#89 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:17 AM

I'm surprised at all the disbelief in this thread about the Twins bringing back Pelfrey.

I'd like to believe that Ryan has tried to entice other pitchers. I'd like to think he hasn't made an offer to anyone because he's had enough discussions to know that it's going to take 'X' and they are only willing to spend 'Y' so making an offer is pointless. Plus, just to illustrate, look at Dan Haren. He wanted to go back closer to his home. There was just no way the Twins or a team east of Arizona was going to get him unless they were going to pay stupid money.

Here is what I'm getting at. Pelfrey isn't a great option. I think we all agree on that. But the reality is that Diamond can't get a right handed hitter out at any level and even lefties hit the snot out of the ball off him last year. I thought I had heard towards the end of the season that they were going to move him out of the rotation similar to what they did with Duensing. So that leaves at most, Gibson, Deduno, and Correia. We've seen how terrible Swarzak and Hendriks are so those guys are not really options in the rotation anymore. Besides, Swarzak might have found a career as a relief option.

Meyer and May aren't probably going to get called up until June. Who knows what Worley will do and even if he showed some signs of being able to pitch effectively again, that's still only our third starter to pair up with Correia and Deduno. We need more arms. If guys like Arroyo, Garza, and Nolasco aren't coming, then get what you can get. I'm not even remotely excited about a rotation of say, Correia, Pelfrey, Deduno, Gibson, and whoever else, but if that's what they can sign then so be it.

If they could find a way to trade for someone like Bailey, Samarskad;adas;lkjaf, Hellickson, sure, great. But at what cost? I'm not willing to part with anyone like Sano, Buxton, May, or Meyers for any of those pitchers. I probably wouldn't part with Barreiors or Stewart either. Those are our 7 best prospects. They have to be the future of the team for 2015-2017.


Good job on your first post!

#90 iTwins

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:18 AM

As long as Pelfrey isn't the best arm the Twins sign this winter, I'm fine with bringing him back. He's a perfectly serviceable back of the rotation guy. At the right price, go for it - just don't back off of Garza, Arroyo, Nolasco et. all because you signed Pelfrey.

#91 mike wants wins

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:24 AM

We had this conversation last year, right? If he's signed as the 5th starter, it is a fine signing. If he's your top signing, that's probably an issue. It sure was last year.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#92 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:27 AM

On the other hand, I'm really tired of contact pitchers. Even signing one that looks to rebound leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It's also why I'm meh on Arroyo (also his age).


Nobody is going to confuse Pelfrey with Roger Clemens, but he did put up the highest k/9 rate of his career last year coming back from TJS, he had 63 K's in his 81 innings when he got "recalled" to the big leagues. While 6.0-6.5 k/9 rates isn't fantastic, it isn't terrible as well, especially if you are talking about your back end rotation guy. Again he isn't some fire baller who is going to give you double digit strike outs, but he isn't Nick Blackburn or Kevin Correia as well.

Strike outs cost a premium on the market, (Just look at the Edwin Jackson contract for an example) and this is fine, as you mention and has been mentioned, signing Pelfrey doesn't stop you from signing/trading for a guy with more strike outs (Garza, Bailey etc)

It's not the best example, but I feel its worth bringing it up. Prior to 2013 I advocated signing a pitcher to a very similar contract, it was a guy who had an ugly 2012 ERA, but whos advanced numbers painted a story that he got unlucky, it was a guy who had talent and had success in the majors prior to an injury.

That guy was Francisco Liriano, while the comparisons/pitching styles are different, its not hard to see a couple similarities here as a buy low/decent upside signing. Give me that 7 days a week over giving a guy a contract until he is 40 at 10 mil a year (3 years) where there is zero chance of improvement. Again I think there is a pretty solid chance Pelfrey produces just as much as Arroyo over the next two years (even more so over the next 3 years) for literally a fraction of the cost.

#93 mike wants wins

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:32 AM

Except Liriano was once good, and Pelfrey has never really been that good. Though I agree on Arroyo.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#94 Thrylos

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:34 AM

You have to admire Ryan as a man of his word...this is definitely not a short cut.


Do you remember the "no more scholarships" words of Ryan right after his return in the GM position after 2011? Look at who he held accountable for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and reconsider whether or not his words carry any gravity.
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#95 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:38 AM

Except Liriano was once good, and Pelfrey has never really been that good. Though I agree on Arroyo.


2008 Liriano: 3.91 ERA 108 ERA+ (78 IP)
2010: Liriano: 3.68 ERA 112 ERA+ (198 IP)
76, 78, 80 were his other ERA+ in the three down seasons.

2008 Pelfrey: 3.72 ERA 113 ERA+ (200 IP)
2010: Pelfrey: 3.66 ERA 107 ERA+ (204 IP)
78, 78, 81 were his other ERA+ in the down seasons.

Now, I think Liriano is a "better" pitcher then Pelfrey and has more upside, however I think the gap isn't as huge as some like to make. You can say what you want about Pelfrey, but you can't deny that those two seasons above (200 IP and a sub 3.75 ERA) don't qualify as "good"

#96 stupidloser55

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:54 AM

The thing you have to remember though about Arroyo is he has a proven track record of being healthy. Additionally you probably are paying for him to be a bit of a mentor and his years of preparing himself to make every start, every year. That kind of leadership is needed on a team as young as the Twins. Plus he's pitched on a lot of winning teams and has that wisdom and experience to share.

I 100% agree that in theory if Pelfrey is back to being healthy, he's probably just as good as Arroyo, with a tick more upside, at a much lower cost and commitment length. I'm not all that bummed out about this potential signing. Especially if he ends up giving the Twins 400 innings over the next two years. That has a lot of value to the Twins right now. That is one less rotation spot they need to worry about for two years. It's not as if Gibson, Worley, and Deduno have shown they can be let loose for 30 starts and will keep the Twins competitive.

I would still like to see them sign another guy, someone like Arroyo, so we can at least go into the year with three guys we can relatively count on in theory to stay healthy for 180 innings and 28-30 starts. That gives them a lot of leeway with the fringe starters right now like Deduno, Gibson, Worley, and possibly May and Meyer at some point.

Plus, if we truly are competitive for next year, or look like we might be, I'd be much more excited to go after guys like Bailey, Gallardo, Brett Anderson, Peavy, etc.

#97 Alex

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:55 AM

That guy was Francisco Liriano, while the comparisons/pitching styles are different, its not hard to see a couple similarities here as a buy low/decent upside signing. Give me that 7 days a week over giving a guy a contract until he is 40 at 10 mil a year (3 years) where there is zero chance of improvement. Again I think there is a pretty solid chance Pelfrey produces just as much as Arroyo over the next two years (even more so over the next 3 years) for literally a fraction of the cost.


No. This would not a low risk/"decent" upside signing and is only comparable Liriano on the slimmest of of superficial elements. With Pelfrey, the best you can hope for is average to slightly above average, not unlike Correia. Liriano is the definition of low risk/high upside in that he's had some rough seasons but he's also had dominating ones and his stuff has the potential to have more.

This would be a low risk/low upside signing. Which, as people have mentioned is fine if this isn't their top signing, but as many have pointed out, there's no real reason to go with a guy like this in late November/December.

#98 Alex

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 09:56 AM

Do you remember the "no more scholarships" words of Ryan right after his return in the GM position after 2011? Look at who he held accountable for the 2012 and 2013 seasons and reconsider whether or not his words carry any gravity.


You obviously missed the irony in my post. :)

I agree with you and there are plenty of other examples where Ryan's words don't match the result or effort. Whether that's because he over-promises and underperforms due to circumstances or because it's saying one thing to appease season ticket holders and really planning something different. As others have said, neither is good.

Of course, I much appreciated Jeremy and Seth's podcast with Mike Bernadino where they mostly agreed that it doesn't make sense and this could just be a rumor and isn't coming from the Twins camp, so maybe this all didn't happen or is a very preliminary offer.

Edited by Alex, 27 November 2013 - 10:01 AM.


#99 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 10:01 AM

The thing you have to remember though about Arroyo is he has a proven track record of being healthy. Additionally you probably are paying for him to be a bit of a mentor and his years of preparing himself to make every start, every year. That kind of leadership is needed on a team as young as the Twins. Plus he's pitched on a lot of winning teams and has that wisdom and experience to share.


While I don't entirely disagree, I'd like to point out that it's somewhat of a leap to expect continued health of a "durable" pitcher through his late 30s.

#100 TheLeviathan

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 10:09 AM

Did I say 3M anywhere? I think i was saying 2 years at 5-6 mil per season. (I'd also prefer a team option for 7 million (500k buyout) for the 3rd year, in the case that he turns it around.

Pelfrey is only a guaranteed rotation spot for the first few months of 2014 if he signs, the overall contract wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to shed (ala Marquis, Blackburn etc)

That's the nice thing about Pelfrey vs a guy like Arroyo, if he sucks/regresses you eat a third of the money.


You're right, you said 4M (2/8) after someone else said 3. This post is closer - I think 2/12 is probably the cheapest you can expect.

And while you might believe he's only guaranteed a rotation spot that long, I'm not sure the Twins would operate that way. Moreover, it's not how long into the season he's guaranteed, it's that it may alter your offseason plans to already fill an open slot with a pitcher of his caliber rather than one much better.