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The Return of Mike Pelfrey

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#41 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:00 AM

Defenders of Pelfrey straight up amaze me. He has been bad for most of his career. That they offer to HIM and not others by now is pretty indicative of why Terry Ryan needs to be fired on the spot. How is this not clear? This is baffling.

Fired on the spot for trying to sign a guy who can be a solid back end guy? Ok, yeah that makes sense.

You are completely wrong about him being "bad" for most of his career:

Once again, His four full seasons in New York he averaged 196 IP a season along with a 4.27 ERA.

For comparisons sake:
Ricky Nolasco's last 4 seasons: 188 IP, 4.48 ERA.
Bronson Arroyo last 4 seasons: 208 IP, 4.05 ERA (however looking for 30+ mil and 3 years as a 37 year old)
Phil Hughes last 4 seasons: (Who I advocate signing) 147 IP 4.65 ERA
Jason Vargas last 4 seasons: 197 IP, 3.97 ERA (32 mil contract signed)

The beauty about Pelfrey is he will cost literally a FRACTION of those players.

Sure Pelfrey's 2013 ERA etc look ugly, however as mentioned his FIP and xFIP tell a diff story, and he was a much diff pitcher once he came back to the Twins after more or less a couple weeks off......and he was on a very very aggressive path/timeline back from TJS. His velocity and everything is back to normal (and possible it gets even higher?) and as mentioned his k/9 rate saw an increase...and is still only 29.

It's actually a perfect buy low signing, especially if they can get a team option for a third year. If he gives you his pre TJS numbers of 185-200 IP and a 4.25-4.35 ERA he is a freaking steal at 5-6 mil a year.

#42 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:02 AM

For all the hate he is getting, Pelfrey lead the staff last year in K/9, WAR and was only .03 behind Albers for the FIP lead. Additionally he was 2nd in IP. I get that the rotation was terrible, but they aren't going to bring in 4 or 5 new pitchers via trades/free agency, so you need to get some cheap production somewhere.


BR vs. Fangraphs with regard to WAR, again. I am amazed by the defense of this guy. The dude can't get past the fifth inning most of the time and THIS is what you want to sign????????

How many question marks are needed?

#43 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:04 AM

Also in two of his four full seasons (prior to TJS) Pelfrey posted 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 ERA with over 200 IP each season. Which actually is the opposite of "bad"

#44 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:05 AM

Tanaka, Garza, Kuroda (less clear about the Yankees resigning him now), Jimenez, Kazmir, Santana, Feldman, Arroyo, and Hughes.

Is it so crazy to think the Twins could get some two of these guys? Is one really impossible?

#45 notoriousgod71

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:05 AM

Also, Ryan earned his stripes the hard way, 6 years as a damn fine scout for the Mets, followed by scouting director by the Twins for 6 years and another couple years as McPhails right hand man before taking over as GM, in which he took one of the lowest payrolled teams in baseball and built the core that won 6 division titles in 9 years with a damn fine run of good trades, including the Knoblauch one, The AJ one, Hollins for David Ortiz, Kelly for Joe Mays, Buchannan for Bartlerr, Kielty for Shannon Stewart, Aggie for Loshe, Milton for Silva/Punto.

Yeah, things have sucked since he has been back, but he was dealt a pretty ****ty hand and really, has he made a bad trade/bad signing yet?

I'd like to think I am a pretty smart baseball fan/have been playing/watching/studying my whole life/strong business background etc, however I can say without a doubt I couldn't hold a freaking candle to what Ryan has done and will continue to do, chances are nearly everyone else here would be the exact same (if not everyone). I appreciate the kind words about my blueprint, but there is a ton more going on behind the scenes/complications that none of us are really aware of.

Also in re: to my blueprint, that would be assuming those players all would sign for the amounts I suggested, whereas there are reports of all 4 guys looking for higher deals (Garza, Salty, Hughes) or 1 year deals (Hughes)


I'm far too frustrated with everything Twins related at the moment to think or write rationally. I'll give it a shot again tomorrow.

#46 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:07 AM

Also in two of his four full seasons (prior to TJS) Pelfrey posted 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 ERA with over 200 IP each season. Which actually is the opposite of "bad"


Do things like ERA+, WHIP, and K/BB ratio not matter to you at all? Also, his hit rate is great fun.

#47 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:11 AM

BR vs. Fangraphs with regard to WAR, again. I am amazed by the defense of this guy. The dude can't get past the fifth inning most of the time and THIS is what you want to sign????????

How many question marks are needed?


You do realize he was coming off Tommy John surgery literally 1 year to the day, right? It typically takes most pitchers some time after that to get back to "normal" by his own admission prior to opening day he admitted "rushing the rehab" in order to get back and get a contract for 2013.

You do realize this, right? Or do you just want to continue to ignore this (and his success in New York) to fit your tired rhetoric?

#48 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:16 AM

Do things like ERA+, WHIP, and K/BB ratio not matter to you at all? Also, his hit rate is great fun.


Those two seasons I mentioned he had a 113 and 107 ERA+, you understand how ERA+ works and how your average #4 and #5's rank on it correct? For comparisons sake, Jon Lester, the world series winning Red Sox ace had a 109 ERA+ this season.

The Twins have had exactly 4 pitchers pitch for a 107 or higher ERA+ in the last 4 years.

#49 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:26 AM

Look at career numbers, then. Good grief. In 1049 innings pitched he has a 4.48 ERA, 607 strikeouts, 371 walks, a 1.472 WHIP, a 90 ERA+, and 1,173 hits given up.

Why would any rational team bother with this kind of production which is simply replacement value (500K)?

#50 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:38 AM

Look at career numbers, then. Good grief. In 1049 innings pitched he has a 4.48 ERA, 607 strikeouts, 371 walks, a 1.472 WHIP, a 90 ERA+, and 1,173 hits given up.

Why would any rational team bother with this kind of production which is simply replacement value (500K)?

First off in a total of just a tad over 5 full seasons (adds in the partial seasons of 2013, 2007 and non existent one of 2012) he has 10.2 WAR, which alone indicates he is in fact not replacement level. Also 20% of those numbers (2013) are him coming off of Tommy John Surgery........

Meanwhile, Nolasco has a 4.37 ERA, 1312 IP, 1385 H, 94 ERA+ and people want to give him 4 years and 4x the overall money.

Continue to disgaree, and spout off all you want, but if he If he gives you his pre TJS numbers of 185-200 IP and a 4.25-4.35 ERA he provides plenty of value.

#51 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:46 AM

I hate the idea of the Twins signing Nolasco and have been CLEAR about that.

Pelfrey is a waste of space. I would rather let Liam Hendriks try out again for 1/10 the cost and likely a similar value.

#52 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:50 AM

I hate the idea of the Twins signing Nolasco and have been CLEAR about that.

Pelfrey is a waste of space. I would rather let Liam Hendriks try out again for 1/10 the cost and likely a similar value.


You realize he has a 6.06 ERA and 68 ERA+ in his 150+ IP in the majors right?

You are just being silly now.

#53 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:50 AM

I am shocked by the amount of support for paying millions to replacement level pitchers. Even Arroyo is better than that, and he is OLD.

#54 DaveW

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:51 AM

I am shocked by the amount of support for paying millions to replacement level pitchers. Even Arroyo is better than that, and he is OLD.


Arroyo also costs 3x as much....

#55 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 12:54 AM

You realize he has a 6.06 ERA and 68 ERA+ in his 150+ IP in the majors right?

You are just being silly now.


Hendriks is 5 years younger with no such health issues and a comparable K rate. Certainly a better k/bb rate without actually looking.

Anyway, yes, I will go on the record as saying that I would prefer the Twins give the 5th starter role to Liam Hendriks at $500K than Mike Pelfrey at $4-5 million.

#56 Marta Shearing

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:18 AM

I would be tickled pink if our rotation went:
Garza
Pelfrey
Correia
Deduno
Gibson

With meyer and may ready by midseason.

Edited by Marta Shearing, 27 November 2013 - 01:29 AM.


#57 Shane Wahl

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:22 AM

I would be tickled pink if our rotation went:
Garza
Pelfrey
Correia
Deduno
Gibson


I laugh at how you put Pelfrey above Correia and Deduno here. What?

Anyway, one pitcher is not enough.

#58 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:31 AM

I just puked in my mouth reading this. Sure Pelfrey as a #5 starter....but he is not going to be considered our #5 starter...he will be considered our #2....gross. C'MON MAN!

#59 AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:33 AM

I laugh at how you put Pelfrey above Correia and Deduno here. What?

Anyway, one pitcher is not enough.


Totally agree. What's Garza's WAR? Like 3? That isnt going to cut it. Sure I would love Garza but we need more than one pitcher. If this offseason all they do is keep Pelfrey and sign Garza...it is a failure.

#60 Marta Shearing

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Posted 27 November 2013 - 01:33 AM

I really wasnt putting them in any particular order. With Ryan in charge, I think Garza and Pelfrey is the best we can hope for, and I dont think he'll do that much.