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#41 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:22 PM

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.


In a word:

Ick.

#42 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:23 PM

The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either.

We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up.

It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.


So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?

The other teams have 2-4 holes to fill while we have 12 or more, so shouldnt we get a jump on the rest of the teams rather then sit back and wait for things to develope?

#43 edavis0308

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:32 PM

Here's some solid update info from Wolfson again:

http://www.1500espn....this_week112613

#44 jay

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:33 PM

Considering the Twins, by most accounts, need to add at least 2 quality SP FAs (not to mention other positions), it's a bit more damaging to them each time one signs with another team, as opposed to most teams who may be only looking for one.

Also, ESPN ranks Mike Pelfrey as the #50 free agent. Which suggests that the Twins really need two top-50 guys for the rotation. And top-50 guys (9/50) are signing faster than the bottom tiers (6/144), according to your numbers. I don't really care if the Twins have plenty of time to sign guys worse than Pelfrey.

There are 17 SP ranked ahead of Pelfrey on that list; 4 have signed. The Twins needed 2 of those 17. It would be a lot more encouraging if they had one signed already, and just needed 1 of the remaining 13. (Especially since a few of those 13 are extremely unlikely -- Burnett, Kuroda, and probably Ervin Santana based on price, Jimenez maybe not due to qualifying offer.)

What do you think are the odds the Twins land 2 of the remaining 13? And how much do you think those odds decrease each time one of the remaining pitchers signs with another team?


They could use 2 from that list, but is that what it would take to think they had a decent (unprecedented, even??) offseason? I would certainly like 2, but I wonder if the expectations are getting a little carried away.

#45 S.

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:37 PM

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.

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#46 MichiganTwins

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:39 PM

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?

The other teams have 2-4 holes to fill while we have 12 or more, so shouldnt we get a jump on the rest of the teams rather then sit back and wait for things to develope?


Good Argument. Much appreciated. I hope you feel proud about your post. However, you do realize that it makes no sense right? Throwing out that story has nothing to do with Brock's post.

We all want the Twins to sign someone, but we also realize this is a slow process. A time may come where we can complain about the lack of Twins moves, but it is not in November. Let's see how things work out.

#47 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:49 PM

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?


*blank stare*

Yes.

The other teams have 2-4 holes to fill while we have 12 or more, so shouldnt we get a jump on the rest of the teams rather then sit back and wait for things to develope?


It'd be great if the Twins had signed six guys already. Except that's not how the offseason works. You can't sign Matt Garza if Matt Garza is fielding offers through the Winter Meetings.

Get back to me when the Garzas, Arroyos, and Hughes go off the table. I'll be more than happy to share in your outrage.

#48 edavis0308

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:49 PM

I actually wouldn't mind Pelf on a two year deal now that he is another year removed from TJ depending on the money/years, but good Lord try to get some strikeouts into the rotation somewhere.

#49 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:53 PM

Interesting: 15/194 (7.7%) of all free agents signed, but 18% (9) of all top 50 FA signed which makes is 6/144 (4.2%) of the non-top 50 free agents
Which means that top free agents are signed at a rate four and a half times as fast as the regular Joes.
And this actually does not help your argument ;)


You're ignoring that a large percentage of those guys are players that would not sign with the Twins or aren't good fits for the roster.

There's no way the Twins were getting, say, Hudson and they weren't going five years on a catcher like McCann.

When the players who ARE a good fit start going to other teams, then we have a problem.

#50 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:55 PM

I actually wouldn't mind Pelf on a two year deal now that he is another year removed from TJ depending on the money/years, but good Lord try to get some strikeouts into the rotation somewhere.


Yeah, it's not the worst idea in the world but I just don't like watching Pelfrey pitch.

And for God's sake, a few strikeouts would be nice.

#51 DaveW

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:56 PM

So if your kid went sky diving and the vast majority decided to jump without a parachute , you would be ok with letting your kid do the same?


My step kid is a real pain in the ass, I'd let him do it.

#52 TheLeviathan

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 03:59 PM

Generating interest isn't the same as taking offers. I think it's reasonable for an agent to try and drum up interesting for his client before he starts taking offers, even if it's a blind bidding process. A team in the early stages might think player A is worth 2/10m but the agent might want to really shop him and build up interest, compare him to better players etc and the agent wouldn't want the original team to have already formed a 2/10m view of his player. I think its probably harder to move a team up if they've already made a valuation of the player.


You're trying WAY too hard to defend something that doesn't need defending. As Brock said, most guys haven't signed and most teams probably aren't tossing a lot of offers around. It's ok that the Twins haven't. It's not something to be hung up on yet.

But how does it make any sense to deny taking offers? Denying offers surely has no more connection to generating interest than taking offers does. The whole connection you're trying to make is flimsy. Teams have that initial valuation whether they offer or not. It's part of their scouting and offseason preparation. All denying offers does is make sure you A) miss out on being blown out of the water by someone or B) having nothing to use as leverage when offers do start rolling in. What you're suggesting doesn't make any sense at all and I think you're a bit blind to that by your motivation for posting it.

It's ok, the Twins don't need a blind defense here. It's perfectly ok that they haven't bid yet. Even if some of us have a lot of angst about whether they will at all, it's still ok.

#53 Twins Twerp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:05 PM

This is funny, we are talking about stuff we literally know nothing about. None of us are agents or GM's. This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site. The whole "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" argument is dumb as we don't know who has offered what or how the whole process works.

#54 TheLeviathan

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:09 PM

This is funny, we are talking about stuff we literally know nothing about. None of us are agents or GM's. This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site. The whole "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" argument is dumb as we don't know who has offered what or how the whole process works.


I think most media reports about team activity are relatively accurate. I'm not sure what value there is in being a complete agnostic about the process. If you're going to limit discourse about baseball only insofar as what any of us are....my guess is most of us should disband this site and open up a forum about beer league softball and save all conversations about professional baseball to those several hundred people that applies to.

I guess I've just never found much credence in those arguments.

#55 nicksaviking

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:09 PM

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.


Can a team even offer a two year minor league deal?

#56 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:10 PM

Can a team even offer a two year minor league deal?


Nick wins the thread.

#57 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:18 PM

Jesus Christ. I give up. Pelfrey. Pelfrey. Pelfrey.

#58 Alex

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:38 PM

This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site.


While I like Gleeman and often agree with him, I've never appreciated nor worried his condescension for the site, especially when he spent time in the podcast and tweeting last week about one single poster that complained about the G+G podcast.

Also ironically and more to the topic, it's funny you mention it as in this week's he would have fit right in this thread. He essentially said the Twins had no reason not to make better offers to three of the four pitchers Brock mentioned that had signed.

Edited by Alex, 26 November 2013 - 04:42 PM.


#59 DaveW

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 04:46 PM

This is funny, we are talking about stuff we literally know nothing about. None of us are agents or GM's. This is why Gleeman has no respect for this site. The whole "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" argument is dumb as we don't know who has offered what or how the whole process works.


Who cares what Gleeman thinks of this forum? He is a solid writer, but isn't the end all be all when it comes to taste or whatever, he isn't a fan of open discussion which is the exact opposite of what this forum is (and what ByTO was prior) also fwiw for someone who dislikes it so much, he apparently visits the site quite a bit and does searches for his name.(a little birdie mentioned this) so I would take any criticism towards this forum from him with a grain of salt.

Also leave the lee Harvey Oswald quote out of this!

#60 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 06:31 PM

*blank stare*

Yes.



It'd be great if the Twins had signed six guys already. Except that's not how the offseason works. You can't sign Matt Garza if Matt Garza is fielding offers through the Winter Meetings.

Get back to me when the Garzas, Arroyos, and Hughes go off the table. I'll be more than happy to share in your outrage.


Outrage? me nope, like i posted earlier asking Terry to run out and spend early and fast is like asking a goldfish to climb a tree...but my point is , the Twins need several players, not just a couple of spots to fill.Wouldnt of been a good idea to target the players you want, (who fit in your budget) then jumped right into it, if they refuse then go to plan B, then plan C. So in december you can look at other ways and opptions?