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#21 jay

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 12:04 PM

Any of us pretending to know what the negotiation process consists of is a joke.

Isn't this the exact same as the 'Twins Aren't Doing Stuff' thread?

#22 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 12:09 PM

I will never understand the gnashing of teeth that occurs before the Winter Meetings even get going.

If nothing happens by December 15th, then it's time to start complaining.

#23 JB_Iowa

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 12:16 PM

I will never understand the gnashing of teeth that occurs before the Winter Meetings even get going.

If nothing happens by December 15th, then it's time to start complaining.


LOL, gonna mark my calendar.

#24 Winston Smith

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 12:37 PM

I will never understand the gnashing of teeth that occurs before the Winter Meetings even get going.

If nothing happens by December 15th, then it's time to start complaining.


It's always time to complain this is a baseball blog!

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#25 edavis0308

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 12:41 PM

We need a break from complaining about the Vikings :D

#26 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:04 PM

Why would less offers drum up interest? The best way to push up value is to create competition among offers, not suppress them.

Im not worried that we haven't offered anything yet, but c'mon, lets not contort common sense.


Generating interest isn't the same as taking offers. I think it's reasonable for an agent to try and drum up interesting for his client before he starts taking offers, even if it's a blind bidding process. A team in the early stages might think player A is worth 2/10m but the agent might want to really shop him and build up interest, compare him to better players etc and the agent wouldn't want the original team to have already formed a 2/10m view of his player. I think its probably harder to move a team up if they've already made a valuation of the player.

Edited by gunnarthor, 26 November 2013 - 01:12 PM.


#27 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:05 PM

We need a break from complaining about the Vikings :D


How can you complain, they tied!

#28 Rick Blaine

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:36 PM

I wonder if the Twins are waiting to see what happens with Tanaka before making any offers...well, one can dream.


When are the Tanaka sweepstakes held?

#29 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:42 PM

When are the Tanaka sweepstakes held?


MLB and Japanese baseball are working out the kinks in the posting system. Might not get fixed.

#30 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:43 PM

I will never understand the gnashing of teeth that occurs before the Winter Meetings even get going.

If nothing happens by December 15th, then it's time to start complaining.


It might have smething to do with decades of Twins offseason history, and/or the fact other teams don't seem to think the offseason starts in mid December.

#31 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:49 PM

It might have smething to do with decades of Twins offseason history, and/or the fact other teams don't seem to think the offseason starts in mid December.


The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either.

We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up.

It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.

#32 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 01:59 PM

Okay, I just looked it up.

According to ESPN, out of 194 free agents, 15 players have signed with a new team so far this offseason.

I sure hope the Twins don't miss out on those remaining.... 170 players.

Only nine of the top 50 ranked FAs have signed and that's not counting guys like Tanaka.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents

#33 spycake

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:06 PM

Generating interest isn't the same as taking offers. I think it's reasonable for an agent to try and drum up interesting for his client before he starts taking offers, even if it's a blind bidding process. A team in the early stages might think player A is worth 2/10m but the agent might want to really shop him and build up interest, compare him to better players etc and the agent wouldn't want the original team to have already formed a 2/10m view of his player. I think its probably harder to move a team up if they've already made a valuation of the player.


Sorry, I still don't get this at all. I get that a player may not be actively soliciting offers yet, but you can't stop a team from making them -- and even if you could, I'm not sure what benefit that has. A team isn't going to be more likely to agree to 2/15 later just because they don't fax their 2/10 offer today.

By the same token, I don't think a lack of formal offers is necessarily a bad thing -- they could be having a dialog with Arroyo about salary and years without a formal offer. Although with the Twins history in the FA market, it would be nice to see some activity rather than find alternate explanations for their customary inactivity. Agreed its still early, though.

#34 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:16 PM

Sorry, I still don't get this at all. I get that a player may not be actively soliciting offers yet, but you can't stop a team from making them -- and even if you could, I'm not sure what benefit that has. A team isn't going to be more likely to agree to 2/15 later just because they don't fax their 2/10 offer today.


I think the agent wants to affect how teams value his player before they bid (like in the Sano example). If a team values a guy at 2/10 before the agent can set up some "facts" - player A is the only pitcher who has thrown 200 ip in 10 seasons, player A is younger and amassed more WAR than Grienke did over the previous 3 seasons, player A is generating a lot of interest in X number of markets - I think it makes it harder for the agent to get that team to move to a 4 year deal or 15/year. That's why not wanting offers isn't the same as not generating interest in his client, as Levatian suggests.

#35 Alex

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:19 PM

The vast majority of other teams haven't signed anyone significant, either.

We go through this every year... Virtually nothing happens before the Winter Meetings. There's no point in getting upset over it. This is how every offseason plays out... If I was a mid-level FA, I wouldn't want to sign before the Winter Meetings unless I had a particular destination in mind. Once the Winter Meetings commence, teams start actively bidding against one another and the chances of getting a player-friendly deal goes up.

It's hard to sign a player that won't agree to a deal and the players have very little incentive to agree to a deal in November.


I agree that it's a bit early, but I'd love if my favorite team was out in front of and were addressing any of their many needs right away, especially as there are teams that have been doing that.

#36 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:25 PM

I agree that it's a bit early, but I'd love if my favorite team was out in front of and were addressing any of their many needs right away, especially as there are teams that have been doing that.


Well, their biggest need is pitching and exactly two starting pitchers have signed that the Twins had even the smallest shot of signing (I'm not including Hudson and Johnson, who appeared to know exactly where they wanted to go).

Jason Vargas and Dan Haren are off the board. That's it.

#37 spycake

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:27 PM

Okay, I just looked it up.

Considering the Twins, by most accounts, need to add at least 2 quality SP FAs (not to mention other positions), it's a bit more damaging to them each time one signs with another team, as opposed to most teams who may be only looking for one.

Also, ESPN ranks Mike Pelfrey as the #50 free agent. Which suggests that the Twins really need two top-50 guys for the rotation. And top-50 guys (9/50) are signing faster than the bottom tiers (6/144), according to your numbers. I don't really care if the Twins have plenty of time to sign guys worse than Pelfrey.

There are 17 SP ranked ahead of Pelfrey on that list; 4 have signed. The Twins needed 2 of those 17. It would be a lot more encouraging if they had one signed already, and just needed 1 of the remaining 13. (Especially since a few of those 13 are extremely unlikely -- Burnett, Kuroda, and probably Ervin Santana based on price, Jimenez maybe not due to qualifying offer.)

What do you think are the odds the Twins land 2 of the remaining 13? And how much do you think those odds decrease each time one of the remaining pitchers signs with another team?

#38 Thrylos

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:27 PM

Okay, I just looked it up.

According to ESPN, out of 194 free agents, 15 players have signed with a new team so far this offseason.

I sure hope the Twins don't miss out on those remaining.... 170 players.

Only nine of the top 50 ranked FAs have signed and that's not counting guys like Tanaka.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents


Interesting: 15/194 (7.7%) of all free agents signed, but 18% (9) of all top 50 FA signed which makes is 6/144 (4.2%) of the non-top 50 free agents
Which means that top free agents are signed at a rate four and a half times as fast as the regular Joes.
And this actually does not help your argument ;)
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#39 spycake

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:39 PM

I think the agent wants to affect how teams value his player before they bid (like in the Sano example). If a team values a guy at 2/10 before the agent can set up some "facts" - player A is the only pitcher who has thrown 200 ip in 10 seasons, player A is younger and amassed more WAR than Grienke did over the previous 3 seasons, player A is generating a lot of interest in X number of markets - I think it makes it harder for the agent to get that team to move to a 4 year deal or 15/year. That's why not wanting offers isn't the same as not generating interest in his client, as Levatian suggests.


But teams already have valuation estimates for these players. They're not blind or blank slates until they hear a sales pitch. This is especially true in MLB FA, as opposed to amateur FA like Sano (whose age was questioned until the very end, perhaps beyond).

And agents have had years to prepare most of these "facts" for their MLB FA. You think Scott Boras is sorting WAR tables the night before the GM meetings, and heading down to Kinko's after that?

To the extent there are persuadable GMs and persuasive agents, those characteristics persist even after an offer has been faxed. I doubt a TR offer today would be met with the response "But you offered too early! We asked you not to do that!"

#40 MichiganTwins

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Posted 26 November 2013 - 02:59 PM

Dougie just tweeted that the Twins have made a two year offer to Pelfrey.