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How to get Tanaka, wouldja?...

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#1 Trevor0333

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 03:11 AM

I don't see this as something the Twins FO would do but I certainly would. with the 2014 All Star game coming to Target field. Scrapping one more season to make getting Tanaka a possibility probably isnt likely. Although it can be done & within budget. With the young budding star prospects, a soon to be extremely gifted defensive OF & pitchers park. MN can be a very attractive option for 2015 and beyond.

The real question is if this is what it took to land Tanaka would you do it?

First off, its going take 150M to possibly 200M even. The bid/posting rules for this year still don't seem to be agreed upon. There were hints the player may have the option to choose from the top 3 bids, that the posting bonus paid may even be the average of the top 3 bids. I haven't seen any final rulings yet.

The bid is going to need to be in the 75-100 million range, this will get you in the top 3. A 5Y/75M contract structured at 10/15/15/15/20 feels like a safe number to budget for although I would front load it in 2015/2016. If they can get less that's bonus. The Pohlads are not going to just pull 75M out of their pockets, its going to need to fit into the 2014 budget & here's how.

Bid money needed, $75-$100 Million:
It's known there was payroll left to spend in 2013 even before Morneau was moved. Theres your 1st $10M conservatively. Another 25M is now coming in annually from the new TV contract, now we have $35M. The 2014 payroll is currently near 60M, attendence has dropped and will likely drop slightly more. 100M is a slightly high end estimate of what the 2014 budget could be considering we already added the new TV money. Now we're at $75M meaning 25M needs to be cut from this years payroll.

Trades: Willingham 7M, Corriea 5.5M, Doumit 3.5M, Perkins 4M, Burton 3.5, & non-tender Duensing 2M. Ryan could get easily move the likes of these players while getting a solid return prospect wise. That frees up 25 more million giving the team $100 million withing the 2014 budget to bid on & sign Mashiro Tanaka.

2014 rebuild roster
C Pinto
1B Mauer
2B Dozier
3B Plouffe
SS Florimon
LF Mastrioanni
CF Pressly
RF Arcia
DH Collabello

Bench Hermann, Parmelee, Escobar, Fryer

SP Tanaka, Deduno, Gibson, Albers, Diamond
BP Fien, Swarzak, Tonkin, Pressly, Theilbar, Hendricks, Worley

Mid year callups for experience: Sano, Rosario, Meyer, May, Hicks, Buxton

The team has the #5 overall pick in 2014 & that is easily a bottom 3 team giving the Twins possibly 2 very high end college SP to add to the current crop of Meyer, Stewart & Berrios. Not to mention an extreme amount of available payroll to go after a strong pitcher in 2015.

Edited by Trevor0333, 23 November 2013 - 03:18 AM.


#2 freshinthehouse

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 04:15 AM

If we can get good value for Perkins I would certainly entertain a move like this. Anything to keep us from signing the Arroyos of the world.
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#3 pierre75275

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 05:52 AM

i like the plan. i am not sure we could get somebody to pay for all of josh's salary but i am sure somebody would eat most of it. Second i would sign him to a longer contract. Maybe thru 7 years@ the prices mentioned. And i say that because We woukd have his best yrs and get the mostout of his posting fee that way. And i would not sign any other pitcher until next offseason if i signed Tanaka. This year Meyer and Gibson would be up. Next offseason I would target a lefthander.
the lineup posted for 2014 would pry get us a great draft pick 2015 when the twins are really good. I myself would rather watch the kids play then watch verens play to a .500 record

#4 kab21

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 06:38 AM

There's no way I would pay 150-200M for Tanaka. Even if it was a 7 year contract we are talking about 21.5-28.5M/yr. that's silly money for a non-ace (upside) that has never thrown an MLB pitch.

#5 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 07:00 AM

50-60M posting fee is what I think the team should bid. If it's over that, unless they are convinced he's a sure thing, I'd pass.

#6 Thrylos

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 07:38 AM

2014 rebuild roster
C Pinto
1B Mauer
2B Dozier
3B Plouffe
SS Florimon
LF Mastrioanni
CF Pressly
RF Arcia
DH Collabello

Bench Hermann, Parmelee, Escobar, Fryer

SP Tanaka, Deduno, Gibson, Albers, Diamond
BP Fien, Swarzak, Tonkin, Pressly, Theilbar, Hendricks, Worley



This team (replacing Mastroianni for Willingham, Presley for Hicks, Colabello for Doumit, Pinto for Morneau and Tanaka for Pelfrey, Tonkin for Perkins and Hendriks for Duensing) from the 96 loss team, might have another 96 losses.

You need to improve the team and not make Tanaka the Mauer of the rotation. Plus, he is as sure a thing as Alex Meyer is at this point. Similar numbers (if you don't count W-Ls) at similar competition level... This team needs to keep the pen as intact as possible, get 3 new SPs, maybe a bat or 2 and strengthen the bench. What you are doing, makes everything (other than a single pitcher) worse than 2013.
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#7 Jarends703

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 07:52 AM

Why not just sign Garza or E. Santana for half the price? We know they will perform as a #2 starter most likely whereas Tanaka's abilities are a relative unknown. Then you don't need to blow up the roster for one player. Also, the players you mention trading, could be traded mid season or from a position of strength.

#8 halfchest

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 08:07 AM

Why not just sign Garza or E. Santana for half the price? We know they will perform as a #2 starter most likely whereas Tanaka's abilities are a relative unknown. Then you don't need to blow up the roster for one player. Also, the players you mention trading, could be traded mid season or from a position of strength.


Totally agree, they are currently more sure things than Tanaka in my book and you could probably get both for about the price you'd pay Tanaka.

I'd like to see them put a bid in on Tanaka and try to spend 100-125 posting fee + contract on him for a 6-7 year deal. I could live with that. Not convinced he's the second coming of Yu Darvish yet.

#9 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 08:14 AM

I see a couple problems with this budget assessment. The cost of replacing Willingham 7M, Corriea 5.5M, Doumit 3.5M, Perkins 4M, Burton 3.5, & non-tender Duensing 2M is being ignored. It would take around $3M even if you replace them all with league minimum players. That would definitely be punting the 2014 season. We would likely be worse than we were in 2013.

52% of the $25M goes to payroll. Therefore, payroll budget is increased by $13.

Regardless of the financial viability, this leaves us a starting rotation made up of a guy that has never thrown a pitch in MLB and 4 guys with big question marks and the back-end of a very good bullpen has been replaced with league minimum players. Not a good plan.

I have no problem getting rid of any of these players but there has to be a better plan for bridging the gap to Sano / Buxton / Meyer / May / Rosario and others. Go offer Burnett a crazy amount for 1 or 2 years. Sign two of Kazmir, Feldman, Nolaso and Hughes. We would still have salary room to pursue the 2015 free agent crop of SPs which looks much stronger. If we get one of the 2015 SPs we can flip one of the 2014 crop.

#10 jorgenswest

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 08:20 AM

The Twins should put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket and avoid the mistake of overpaying for old back of the rotation pitchers like Arroyo and Capuano. I would be all in this year. The posting fee only impacts one year. That money is available again next year.

#11 JB_Iowa

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 08:25 AM

There's no way I would pay 150-200M for Tanaka. Even if it was a 7 year contract we are talking about 21.5-28.5M/yr. that's silly money for a non-ace (upside) that has never thrown an MLB pitch.


DING****DING***DING***DING


Where is that darn like button.

#12 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 01:15 PM

Tanaka isn't worth the money, if you want to dump 150 million+ into a guy, just throw a few more dollars at a Kershaw, Price, Sherzer or Lester in the future.

#13 twinscowboysbulls

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 01:47 PM

Tanaka isn't worth the money, if you want to dump 150 million+ into a guy, just throw a few more dollars at a Kershaw, Price, Sherzer or Lester in the future.


Agreed, it's too big of a gamble. No one truly knows what to expect from him. I'd rather sign two big names right now for less money likely.

#14 #24 Sano

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 02:57 PM

The only guys on the market I would give 4-5+ years are:
1.Masahhiro Tanaka
2.Matt Garza
3.Ervin Santana
4.Ubaldo Jimenez




5.Ricky Nolasco (frown)
And after Ricky there's not a pitcher who you could sign long term and is solid. The only people I'd give 4 plus are the top four, Nolasco if your desperate. If you ask me I'd prefer the # 2,3,4 guys.

#15 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 04:39 PM

My question is what about the Twins allstar bump? isint that going to be 30 million or more?
couldnt that be used to help make the bid?
25 million , new tv revenue
30 million ,allstar bump....
Thats a start , I believe we will see a 70 million dollar bid finish 3rd or 4th...but to me thats the most we should bid.

#16 kab21

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 07:16 PM

The Twins will be lucky if the All Star game bump offsets fan indifference for the lousy baseball that the Twins are playing. Attendance has dropped from 40K/game in 10/11 to 34K/game to 30K/game last year.

They just flat out need to play better baseball otherwise that is going down further. But that is no excuse to spend 20-30M/yr on a pitcher like tanaka for 6-7 years. That is insanity.

#17 DocBauer

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 07:34 PM

Why not just sign Garza or E. Santana for half the price? We know they will perform as a #2 starter most likely whereas Tanaka's abilities are a relative unknown. Then you don't need to blow up the roster for one player. Also, the players you mention trading, could be traded mid season or from a position of strength.


Yes to Garza, but can't bring myself to sign Santana due the rumored contract demands. Even if his agent is blowing smoke and shooting high, I still don't believe he's worth #1 money and that's pretty much what he is asking.

But the point is very valid here.

Forgetting new TV money and budget cuts made and possible mid-season cuts in payroll via trades, I can't sanction spending almost $100M JUST TO TALK to a player then sign him. I know you get the posting fee back if he doesn't sign, but sheesh, pushing $200M to sign one guy who pitches every fifth day and despite ability and solid reports hasn't even pitched in this league yet?

Perhaps I am guilty of being overly optimistic, but I don't think the Twins are that far away. I really don't. Two quality solid arms with the arms we have, a vet C (AJ) a strong bullpen that should remain so, with depth, and probably even better without pitching so many innings, a handful of good to solid vets (with some health and rebound) and a handful of talented youngsters with some even more talented kids almost ready.

That's how I'd invest.

#18 Dman

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 10:18 PM

I will say I don't know much about Tanaka and I understand the great risk involved in getting him but if you can get past the bid money he is young and affordable for our team for several years after that. Maybe he gets to MLB and is a bust, but it sounds like no one has pitched much better than he has in that league and Darvish has done well for Texas. If his arm holds I think he is a pretty safe bet. The Twins never do anything with the extra money they don;t spend year to year. It would be nice to see the Pohlads show there commitment to the fans and use a few million out the billions they have to try and get this team going. They would have room next year for another big pickup and with any luck our prospects will be starting to kick in as well. We could be a strong team for the next decade.

Reality is that it will not happen as the FO just doesn't think like that. They don't take those kinds of risks so it is pretty pointless to go there. As others have pointed out there are other ways to go and they might even work out better but I for one would have liked to see them go for Tanaka. I think he is worth the risk.

#19 johnnydakota

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Posted 23 November 2013 - 10:37 PM

Tanaka or bust....Me says
If not we will end up with Bruce Chen and Arroyo.
Why not get some thing new, some thing better.
Move Terry out of his comfort zone and sign quality,
instead of quanity....

#20 kab21

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 12:53 AM

Tanaka or bust....Me says
If not we will end up with Bruce Chen and Arroyo.
Why not get some thing new, some thing better.
Move Terry out of his comfort zone and sign quality,
instead of quanity....


I would love to sign Tanaka but only in the 100-125M range. 150-200M is completely crazy. Why not spend 60-90M on Jimenez, Garza or Ervin?

#21 Trevor0333

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 12:41 PM

The thing with Tanaka is you have a 27 year old ace going into 2015 to Anchor the young upcoming rotation. As opposed to buying a 31-33 year old 2nd tier ace.

If you go for tanaka your admitting 2014 is another rebuilding year & then going all in 2015 & beyond.

Also Darvish got 60/60 anyone thinking Tanaka is getting less a few years later in a market flush with new TV money your not viewing the market properly.

It's going to take 150 to get him, you can say he isn't worth it & have many valid points.

#22 johnnydakota

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 01:00 PM

I would love to sign Tanaka but only in the 100-125M range. 150-200M is completely crazy. Why not spend 60-90M on Jimenez, Garza or Ervin?


Agreeing,but only if we sign all 3 ,Spend the money, spend it early build hope early and watch as the ticket sales climb...The fans of the Twins want nothing more then to cheer for this team , and we have proven we will support them...Its just up to Terry and Co. to put a championship caliber team on the field

#23 johnnydakota

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 01:03 PM

The thing with Tanaka is you have a 27 year old ace going into 2015 to Anchor the young upcoming rotation. As opposed to buying a 31-33 year old 2nd tier ace.

If you go for tanaka your admitting 2014 is another rebuilding year & then going all in 2015 & beyond.

Also Darvish got 60/60 anyone thinking Tanaka is getting less a few years later in a market flush with new TV money your not viewing the market properly.

It's going to take 150 to get him, you can say he isn't worth it & have many valid points.


Many have already folded 2014 , most experts are saying maybe 2016. So why not?

#24 kab21

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 07:18 PM

The thing with Tanaka is you have a 27 year old ace going into 2015 to Anchor the young upcoming rotation. As opposed to buying a 31-33 year old 2nd tier ace.

If you go for tanaka your admitting 2014 is another rebuilding year & then going all in 2015 & beyond.

Also Darvish got 60/60 anyone thinking Tanaka is getting less a few years later in a market flush with new TV money your not viewing the market properly.

It's going to take 150 to get him, you can say he isn't worth it & have many valid points.


Tanaka is not Darvish though. Darvish was in another tier when he came from Japan. That should even out the new market (2 years later). If someone goes Dodgers nuts on bidding then you have to let him go regardless of the good match.

And I don't really expect the Twins to be serious on Tanaka. I just hope they get one guy better than Arroyo.

#25 cmb0252

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Posted 24 November 2013 - 07:31 PM

Tanaka is not Darvish though. Darvish was in another tier when he came from Japan. That should even out the new market (2 years later). If someone goes Dodgers nuts on bidding then you have to let him go regardless of the good match.

And I don't really expect the Twins to be serious on Tanaka. I just hope they get one guy better than Arroyo.


This is what a lot of people are getting confused about. Tanaka isn't in Darvish's league. I don't understand why people keep calling him an ace.

#26 Willihammer

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:09 AM

This is what a lot of people are getting confused about. Tanaka isn't in Darvish's league. I don't understand why people keep calling him an ace.


How many more NPB guys need to successfully transition to MLB before we accept the validity of their success over there? In my mind we have already crossed that point.

We are talking about the best pitcher in Japan, that's really all we need to known about him IMO.

#27 Thrylos

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 09:21 AM

How many more NPB guys need to successfully transition to MLB before we accept the validity of their success over there? In my mind we have already crossed that point.

We are talking about the best pitcher in Japan, that's really all we need to known about him IMO.


I think that there are several examples of position players and pitchers who were successful for a short term, several examples of position players and pitchers who were not successful at all and exactly one (Ichiro) maybe 2 (Matsui) who were successful in the long term (like a 5+ year contract).

The jury is still out on Darvish, but starting pitchers like Nomo and Matsuzaka were figured out after a couple of seasons and were average to bad afterwards.

Too much risk at that price.
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#28 Dman

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:12 AM

Tanaka is not Darvish though. Darvish was in another tier when he came from Japan. That should even out the new market (2 years later). If someone goes Dodgers nuts on bidding then you have to let him go regardless of the good match.

And I don't really expect the Twins to be serious on Tanaka. I just hope they get one guy better than Arroyo.


When you look at the stats and compare the players it seems hard for me to understand how Darvish was in another tier. You can google Tanaka vs Darvish and the supposed experts seem to think they are very comparable with a slight edge to Tanaka in most cases.

http://www.dallasnew...-yu-darvish.ece

I agree though that the Twins will not be players in the bidding game. Ryan doesn't work that way and our owner doesn't meddle in baseball decisions. Tanaka would be way, way out of the Twins comfort zone and a huge risk. Personally unless they got Garza if I were them I would go Tanaka but that is just my rookie opinion.

#29 kab21

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:33 AM

When you look at the stats and compare the players it seems hard for me to understand how Darvish was in another tier. You can google Tanaka vs Darvish and the supposed experts seem to think they are very comparable with a slight edge to Tanaka in most cases.

http://www.dallasnew...-yu-darvish.ece


I have read numerous scouting reports that say Tanaka is not as talented as Darvish regardless of what his stats are or a couple of unnamed scouts trying to hype him up.

Tanaka is a really good pitcher but in no way is he worth 21-29M/yr before he has even thrown an MLB pitch.

#30 Dman

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Posted 25 November 2013 - 10:39 AM

I think that there are several examples of position players and pitchers who were successful for a short term, several examples of position players and pitchers who were not successful at all and exactly one (Ichiro) maybe 2 (Matsui) who were successful in the long term (like a 5+ year contract).

The jury is still out on Darvish, but starting pitchers like Nomo and Matsuzaka were figured out after a couple of seasons and were average to bad afterwards.

Too much risk at that price.


I think it depends on the risk you are talking about. Is the risk that the Twins would go all in on Tanaka and not spend on an older second tier ace or two this season or is there a greater risk that the Twins do nothing with the money they have under their budget? The money for the bid doesn't count against the cap and the contract although large would not be terribly out of line for any other ace or second tier ace. To me the greater risk is that they do little to nothing to correct the pitching problem.

Your analysis does point out the risk of signing players from NPB but unfortunately there is risk with every pitcher you might sign. Even if the Twins only got two good years of pitching out of him that would be better than the status quo and again the move wouldn't hamper their payroll other than this year. Again I say the risk of NOT trying for Tanaka is greater than the risk of trying to get him in my opinion.