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Baseball Prospectus Goes Twins Crazy!

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#21 John Bonnes

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:06 PM

Just to nip the "mediocre Cy Young" topic in the bud and get back to the Twins prospect talk, here are the number of Cy Young awards won by each franchise since 1967, which is when the AL got their own award:

[TABLE="width: 128"]

[TD="width: 64"]BAL[/TD]
[TD="width: 64, align: right"]6[/TD]


BOS
[TD="align: right"]6[/TD]


DET
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]


OAK
[TD="align: right"]5[/TD]


KCR
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]


MIN
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]


TOR
[TD="align: right"]4[/TD]


CLE
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]


NYY
[TD="align: right"]3[/TD]


CHW
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]


MIL
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]


SEA
[TD="align: right"]2[/TD]


LAA
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]


TBR
[TD="align: right"]1[/TD]

[/TABLE]

You can decide for yourself what is mediocre or average. Now, let's get back to the prospect talk.....

#22 twinsfan34

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:07 PM

30 MLB teams 30-40 Cy Young winners. Mean ( = Mediocre) is 1-2 winners every 15-20 years. The Twins are the definition of Mediocre as far as this goes. Bell curve. The majority of the teams are mediocre, and few are good and few are bad.

Most fans are not alright with mediocrity and want their team to strive for excellence. For some Twins' fans (and the team management and the local press) jumping from horrible to mediocre seems to be enough unfortunately. Even going back to horrible seems to be ok...


Well, the 30 teams doesn't quite play fairly to 2 CY Young Awards as your team in question can only win the AL CY OR the NL CY. It's the same ratio, but yeah, each time is only eligible for 1 CY.


To be "average" or mediocre, that would mean you win .0667 CY per year or 1/15. Thus, simply, every 15 years, it would assume the average of 1 CY.

The Twins have 2 CY's in 10 years (above the average). Johan in 2004 and 2006. If WHIP and other Sabermetrics had been as populare in 2005, Johan would have had a 3 consecutive. Colon won with 21 Ws on a poor 3.48 ERA 157 SO performance.

If you want to go back another 15 years, for a total of 30 years, that is back to 1984 to get to the next whole Cy Young Award (last I checked they don't hand out CY's in quarters, thirds or any non integer).

The Twins now have Frank Viola's 1988 CY season on the books. 4 years ahead of the curve. Once again, above average. Twins 3, Average 2.

This feels like the electric slide...

Take it back 15 years y'all...

That brings us to 1970. 45 years total. Guess what? Jim Perry won the CY in 1970. So here, the Twins are again, above average. Twins 4, average 3.


The Five teams without a single CY winner?
Cincinnatti, Colorado, Miami, Texas, Washington

The teams that are average to below average (or mediocre in terms of CY Awards)
include the:

Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Indians
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Houston Astros
Milwaukee Brewers
Pittsburgh Pirates
Seattle Mariners
Montreal Expos
Tampa Bay Rays
Cincinnati Reds
Colorado Rockies
Miami Marlins
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals


*Note the number of teams in each league has varied through the years, but not enough to make the Twins an average team.

Edited by twinsfan34, 18 November 2013 - 03:16 PM.


#23 John Bonnes

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:14 PM

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.

#24 Brad Swanson

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:18 PM

For those who cannot read the article, start getting excited about Kohl Stewart. They describe him as both polished and "a no 1 type that could move quickly through a developmental system." 4 potential plus pitches, with the fastball and slider as potential "plus-plus."[FONT=Arial]
[/FONT]

They write that he could end up being the top pitcher in the minor-league class...by the end of next season. Nice.

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#25 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:28 PM

Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.


The Twins need more players who talk about themselves in the third person.

#26 twinsfan34

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:36 PM

Posted Image Originally Posted by John Bonnes Posted Image
Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.

Agree.

The Twins need more players who talk about themselves in the third person.


YES!

#27 gunnarthor

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:43 PM

For those who cannot read the article, start getting excited about Kohl Stewart. They describe him as both polished and "a no 1 type that could move quickly through a developmental system." 4 potential plus pitches, with the fastball and slider as potential "plus-plus."[FONT=Arial]
[/FONT]

They write that he could end up being the top pitcher in the minor-league class...by the end of next season. Nice.


That would be awesome. I don't have a BP subscription but I know someone at BA listed him as the fastest "high school arm to majors" in the last draft. And some scouts liked him better than the collage pitchers. God, I hope he stays healthy.

Twins have gotten some criticism (which I'm not sure is fair) about slow promotions of minor leaguers but the Twins had a bunch of our top prospects do two levels this year - Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Stewart (and the quick promotions for Arcia and Hicks).

#28 James

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:50 PM

The Twins need more players who talk about themselves in the third person.

James agrees with this.

James also thinks more people on TD should talk like Ricky Henderson.

In the podcast they mentioned that a scout said that Buxton's floor was around a Torii Hunter level. That's his projected floor!!! That part is nuts.

When asked about Buxton's ceiling, the scout apparently laughed and basically said the sky is the limit. Threw out... Willie Mays.

If we don't get Willie Mays level of play, James will settle for Ricky Henderson.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#29 John Bonnes

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:51 PM

For those who cannot read the story, listen to the podcast. I'm only 8 minutes into it and needed to stop to take a cold shower. "[The Twins minor league system] has the depth of the Astros' system and the impact of the Cubs' system."

#30 ericchri

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 04:11 PM

If we don't get Willie Mays level of play, James will settle for Ricky Henderson.


For current lack of a "like" button, I'll just quote that part for my fervent agreement!

#31 cmathewson

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 04:19 PM

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.


He has Ricky's legs, Torii's outfield tools, and Eric Davis's hitting tools. Pretty exciting.
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#32 John Bonnes

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 04:22 PM

Parks also just said that if you took away the Twins numbers 1-10 players and just listed 11 through 20 as numbers 1 through 10, it would still be better than some other minor league organizations, including the Angels, Tigers and Athletics.

#33 raindog

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 04:28 PM

For those who cannot read the article, start getting excited about Kohl Stewart. They describe him as both polished and "a no 1 type that could move quickly through a developmental system." 4 potential plus pitches, with the fastball and slider as potential "plus-plus."[FONT=Arial]
[/FONT]

They write that he could end up being the top pitcher in the minor-league class...by the end of next season. Nice.


:go:
Now this makes me excited.

#34 Ncgo4

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 04:39 PM

Let me see if I have this correct. In Buxton we have potentially got Willie Mays in center. In Sano we may have Eddie Matthews at third but with more HR's. With Stewart we just may have Nolan Ryan starting. I'd say that's a good start to a sound ML team. This was tongue in cheek...but I'm still giggling.

#35 Thrylos

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 04:50 PM

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.


Yeah. Rickey is a good comparison. But better defense and better concentration than Rickey. The thing is that in the older days they use to run more and get kids up in the majors young, so Rickey's records will stand.
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#36 kab21

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 06:01 PM

If anything, relievers need better command than starters because they have less margin of error when they come in. It's the primary reason Deduno never made it as a reliever but he does OK as a starter.


This isn't really accurate. RP'ers eliminate their worst pitch from their arsenal and just concentrate on 2 pitches. They also only see hitters once in a game and only a couple times per season. So a pitcher with control problems can seemingly be fixed with a move to the bullpen.

#37 dgwills

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 06:18 PM

Dan likes this post very much. Dan can't wait to see these prospects with the Twins. Dan thinks we will be seeing the other end of the standings soon. Dan also thinks Rickey Henderson is hilarious.

#38 biggentleben

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 06:37 PM

Staff Writer for Tomahawktake.com, come check it out!

#39 AussieTwin

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 07:06 PM

For those who cannot read the story, listen to the podcast. I'm only 8 minutes into it and needed to stop to take a cold shower. "[The Twins minor league system] has the depth of the Astros' system and the impact of the Cubs' system."


Lol took the words right out of my mouth, I was more than confident that Parks did that whole evaluation with a semi. He was frothing at the mouth over the system. I think there's only 2 options for us as twins fans though and we should split them up evenly
1. PRAY that they all stay reasonably healthy and half develop to be as expected
2. Provide personal bodyguard and security for them to enhance step 1

ready? BREAK

#40 Seth Stohs

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 07:14 PM

Boy, reading that Buxton profile - I need to take a deep breath. He is really exciting. Trout is the recent comp, but to me he sounds like Rickey Henderson. That's nuts.


Just opposite end of the spectrum on personality/humility!! But, I think that's a fair comp.