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Ten Predictions for 2014

arcia buxton dozier gibson
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#1 stringer bell

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Posted 16 November 2013 - 10:52 PM

This will include a bit of a 2014 blueprint, some prognostication and some thinking outside the box. I would like to see some other predictions for the coming season.

1) The Twins starting rotation will add two free agents. However the most improvement will come from within, with improvement from Kyle Gibson, emergence of Alex Myer, and a bounceback from one of Vance Worley or Scott Diamond.

2) Joe Mauer will be a contender for both a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. He will exceed .900 for OPS and 20 for home runs. Mauer will be the Twins lone representative at the All-Star game at Target Field.

3) Josh Willingham will be traded after gaining some value with a 2014 that more resembles 2012 than 2013.

4) Josmil Pinto will not make the club out of spring training. He will be in the majors by Memorial Day and play more games at catcher than any other Twins receiver.

5) Aaron Hicks will start the season in Rochester and start somewhat slowly, but will be with Minnesota by the All-Star break.

6) The bullpen will be seen as far less effective in 2014 than 2013. Casey Fien and Caleb Thielbar will regress significantly.

7) Byron Buxton won't be recalled until September at the earliest.

8) Oswaldo Arcia will get demoted to Rochester one more time before he really "gets it" and becomes a force in the middle of the Twins' lineup.

9) Miguel Sano will be promoted before midseason. His batting average will be below .250, but he will show great power and pretty good plate discipline. Trevor Plouffe won't be on the Twins team by September 1.

10) Brian Dozier will follow up his "breakthrough" by increasing his batting average, but not hitting for power. Eddie Rosario will be promoted in Sepember and share time with him at second.

My guess is that the team will improve it's record after another slow start and that there will be a lot of optimism for 2015 after a good finish.

#2 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 16 November 2013 - 11:01 PM

Pretty good stuff!

#3 Twins best friend

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Posted 16 November 2013 - 11:23 PM

No guesses on which 2 free agent pitchers will be signed?

#4 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 12:26 AM

These are pretty good predictions of the coming debacle. There is just no way that Hicks and Arcia shouldn't be starting immediately in 2014.

Dozier still might surprise. He can generate some surprising power from his swing. I would really like to bet on the greater homer total between Mauer and Dozier.

#5 stringer bell

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 07:16 AM

No guesses on which 2 free agent pitchers will be signed?

I'm thinking something like Arroyo and Pelfrey, which combined with Corriea, would make 60% of the rotation 30-something former NL innings-eaters.

#6 stringer bell

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 07:22 AM

These are pretty good predictions of the coming debacle. There is just no way that Hicks and Arcia shouldn't be starting immediately in 2014.

Dozier still might surprise. He can generate some surprising power from his swing. I would really like to bet on the greater homer total between Mauer and Dozier.

I think Dozier's BA and OBP will go up and he'll get double-digit homers, yielding a slightly improved OPS. As for Hicks, I can't see a scenario where the Twins can hand him center field this spring. If he looks as good as he did last spring, he still will have to spend a few weeks in Rochester. I expect Arcia to start the season in Minnesota, but struggle. I do think his next trip to Rochester will be his last.

#7 goulik

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 08:05 AM

My predictions, not what I want...

1. The Twins will be out bid for the services of Garza and will get either Nolasco or Arroyo on a four year deal but not both (oh, they'll try). They will then sign a reclamation/hope they do what we wish they should in Hughes or Josh Johnson type pitcher to a one year deal and a total flyer on a minor league contract to a Johan type that can opt out by June.

2. Joe Mauer will hit 10-15 home runs, be a real good defensive 1B that Minnesotans will say got robbed when someone else gets the gold glove, set a career high in stolen bases, and be in the running if he doesn't win another batting title. All Star game? Not sure about that at 1B...

3. Willingham will rebound to 2011 numbers as will Doumit and both will be traded Long with a couple relievers, and either Plouffe or Parmalee all for minor leaguers to varying degrees of arguements on TD of who got robbed and TRs intelligence. (Someone will call for his head)

4. 100%agree on the Pinto prediction.

5. & 8. Arcia will start in the majors and ride the growing sea of popularity with the fans, crush 30+ homers and never look back. Hicks will begin in center have a shaky June causing fans to wonder if he needs more time but turn it around after the All Star break.

6. Completely disagree on Fien and Thielbar, they will be part of the heart of a very strong bullpen which allows us to trade some of them away as converted starters Hendricks and DeVries get called up.

7. Buxton comes up for a Cup of Coffee when the New Britain or Rochester Playoffs end. He never sees a minor league field again as a player.

9. Sano kills spring training and begins the season at target field. He fades in late May and gets sent to Rochester for two months refinement to work on some things. September he is a freak of nature hitting home runs but concerning fans with some bad fielding errors, a base running mistake and an extremely high strike out rate. TD fans will argue that we are rushed him to much. (They will be wrong but they'll say it)

10. Doziers continued success will lead to a Rosario trade and TD will argue the wisdom of that trade for the next 20 years as he goes on to be a HOF player for someone else with a stop in PinStripes along the way.

Edited by goulik, 17 November 2013 - 08:12 AM.


#8 DK

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 10:38 AM

My predictions for what its worth.

1. Twins will pickup two free agent pitchers. Who those two will be is any ones guess. Meyers will be up by July and be successful. Gibson will have his ups and downs through out the season.

2. Mauer stays somewhat healthy and hits .320 with 15 dingers.

3.Willingham and Doumit will have better seasons but not great years. One or both will not finish the year as a Twin.

4. The Pinto situation depends on the Twins bringing in a veteran catcher. He will end up as an above average offensive catcher and a little shaking defensively. His defensive skill will continue to improve and will be the starter by years end.

5.

#9 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 10:42 AM

My predictions for what its worth.

1. Twins will pickup two free agent pitchers. Who those two will be is any ones guess. Meyers will be up by July and be successful. Gibson will have his ups and downs through out the season.

2. Mauer stays somewhat healthy and hits .320 with 15 dingers.

3.Willingham and Doumit will have better seasons but not great years. One or both will not finish the year as a Twin.

4. The Pinto situation depends on the Twins bringing in a veteran catcher. He will end up as an above average offensive catcher and a little shaking defensively. His defensive skill will continue to improve and will be the starter by years end.

5.

#5 seems a bit vague to me.

#10 johnnydakota

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 01:48 PM

1 After watching old reruns of the AWA, and seeing the killer BEEs, Terry will decide to resign
Baker,Bonser,Blackburn and Butera.

2Terry will seek to change the name of the team to the Minnesota Hornets, and create new uniforms of black and gold stripes.

3.In october at the org.meetings Terry will quit when he doesnt recieve his payroll cutting bonus.

4.Owner Jim Pohlad replaces Ryan with Carrot Top as the new GM

5.Carrot Top fires Gardy, when asked why, he states...Duh, the guy is 3 steps behind every game , he lost his DH while carring 3 catchers and what we pay to keep him in sunflower seeds is to much.

6.2016 The Hornets win the world series under GM Carrot Top, when asked how he did it , he replied I got a real manager , and got out of his way.

7.2014 The Twins earn there largest profits ever.

8.Dispite pocketing an extra 30+ million from hosting the All Star game, none of it is used to bolster the payroll(ownership claims it is just a bonus for them building a new stadium and is not a yearly income)

9. Joe Mauer plays 10% more games and increases his stats by 15%

10. Drew Butera makes the 25 man roster some time during the regular season.

#11 beckmt

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 02:26 PM

1. Twins sign 3 FA pitchers, but only 1 gets 3 years and the third is a flyer
2. Doumit is traded in spring training, Willingham is traded in July.
3. Mauer is the only Twin to make the all star team, does not start
4. Sano is up by June, Buxton in September
5. Arcia becomes the second best twins hitter.
6. Parmelee is traded or lost on waivers at the end of spring training
7. Stewart starts in A+ to avoid the cold and pitches well enough to advance to New Briton
8. Dozier hits better than expected and returns to shortstop when Rosario arrives in September.
9.Twins bring in a veteran catcher to protect Pinto at the start of the season.
10. Duensing and Fien are both traded before the start of next season, one to make a spot for Tonkin, Other in a multi-player deal to add more young pitching to the system.

#12 ashburyjohn

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 02:31 PM

1 After watching old reruns of the AWA, and seeing the killer BEEs, Terry will decide to resign
Baker,Bonser,Blackburn and Butera.

2Terry will seek to change the name of the team to the Minnesota Hornets, and create new uniforms of black and gold stripes.

3.In october at the org.meetings Terry will quit when he doesnt recieve his payroll cutting bonus.

4.Owner Jim Pohlad replaces Ryan with Carrot Top as the new GM

5.Carrot Top fires Gardy, when asked why, he states...Duh, the guy is 3 steps behind every game , he lost his DH while carring 3 catchers and what we pay to keep him in sunflower seeds is to much.

6.2016 The Hornets win the world series under GM Carrot Top, when asked how he did it , he replied I got a real manager , and got out of his way.

7.2014 The Twins earn there largest profits ever.

8.Dispite pocketing an extra 30+ million from hosting the All Star game, none of it is used to bolster the payroll(ownership claims it is just a bonus for them building a new stadium and is not a yearly income)

9. Joe Mauer plays 10% more games and increases his stats by 15%

10. Drew Butera makes the 25 man roster some time during the regular season.


#5 seems a bit vague to me.

#13 Jdosen

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 05:50 PM

My predictions:
1. Dozier falls back to Earth, as his HR/FB rate levels off. His middling play along with Rosario's strong play in the minors works out the "controversy" on its own.

2. Correia will throw his last pitch as a Twin before July 1, and will carry a 5+ ERA out the door as his ERA will more closely resemble his FIP.

3. Plouffe will be gone as soon as Sano comes up for good (I know, really going out on a limb here), and will be immediately snatched up by a team who more closely looks at advanced stats (my prediction is Blue Jays or Red Sox), and mashes for the next couple of years as the short side of a platoon at 3B or in the outfield.

4. Glen Perkins will be an All-Star.

5. Mauer's slash line will rise in all 3 categories, and he will have the highest OBP in the AL, as well as play excellent defense. Fans will still disparage him for not hitting enough #dingers.

6. Bronson Arroyo will "headline" the Twins free agent class, and post a sub-1.5 WAR in 2014.
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#14 The Wise One

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 06:12 PM

These are pretty good predictions of the coming debacle. There is just no way that Hicks and Arcia shouldn't be starting immediately in 2014.
.


No way is awfully strong. I can think of three ways
1. Not hitting in spring training.
2. Injury
3. Not working hard.

#15 gil4

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 06:19 PM

6. ...as converted starters Hendricks and DeVries get called up.


I think Hendricks is out of options and has to be up or waived. Despite his performance so far, I doubt he clears waivers.

Did DeVries sign a minor-league contract with the Twins? I thought he was gone.

Edited by gil4, 17 November 2013 - 06:23 PM.


#16 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 06:40 PM

2014: Joe Mauer will be the first and last player to hit .400 in the 21st Century.

His slash line will be comparable to 1920 George Sisler, minus the stolen bases, hits, and triples. Mauer's BB and OPS will be a 100 more and 100 points higher than Sisler's 1920 season.

#17 goulik

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 09:35 PM

I think Hendricks is out of options and has to be up or waived. Despite his performance so far, I doubt he clears waivers.

Did DeVries sign a minor-league contract with the Twins? I thought he was gone.

You are correct on DeVries being a free agent, he did some relief previously and my prediction calls for him resigning first.
I forgot Hendricks was out of options so I guess they just have to move him straight to the MLB bullpen and trade Someone

#18 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 10:21 PM

Ignoring my last post - which was put out there to exude a feeling of optimism and good JuJu.

My predictions are the following:

Starting Pitchers: The Twins move on from Nolasco and Arroyo and eventually sign Kazmir to a 4 year 48M contract. Their SP Line-up is the following on opening day:
1. Kazmir
2. Correia
3. Deduno
4. Gibson
5. Diamond
Diamond is eventually replaced by Worley and Correia is traded and replaced by Meyer. Note: The Correia trade does not bring back much of a return if any. Kazmir makes good on his first season: 3.50 ERA, 200K’s, 1.20WHIP.

Bullpen Pitchers: Perkins is excellent, Swarzak ends up being a clone of Matt Guerrier, Ryan Pressley improves on a good rookie season. As Stringer Bell predicted – Fien and Thielbar will not be very good, Tonkin will have a strong rookie season in the bigs.

C: The Twins make a trade for Ryan Hanigan of the Reds. He is our opening day starter and Doumit is the backup. Pinto is called up in June and splits time with Hanigan 50% of the time. Doumit is released upon Pinto’s call-up. Both Hanigan and Pinto do well offensively. Pinto is set up for the everyday gig in 2015.

1B: Joe Mauer will hit 17HR’s, batting .340, with 120 BB. He bats in the 3 and 4 spot most of the season and scores and drives in over 100 runs.

2B: Brian Dozier hits .269, with 14 HR’s and 15SB’s while playing Gold Glove Caliber defense.

SS: Pedro Florimon has an identical season to 2013, the lack of offense forces the Twins to find a new starting shortstop in 2015.

3B: Not to be negative, but in February or March it is revealed that Miguel Sano will need Tommy John Surgery, thus leaving the position to Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe plays below to average defense at the hot corner. Escobar fills in a time or two a week. Plouffe hits 21 HR’s, offering little else.

OF: Our opening day outfield is the following:

RF – Oswaldo Arcia
CF – Alex Presley
LF – Josh Willingham

May: Willingham is having knee issues by early May and put on the DL. Because Hicks is struggling a bit at AAA and the Twins don’t want to pull the trigger on Buxton, they call up Eddie Rosario to play RF, moving Arcia to LF, Presley remaining in center.

June: Presley is struggling offensively and he is made a 4th outfielder. Promoting bench player Chris Parmelee to be the starting Right Fielder… the Twins take a chance and put Rosario in Center Field, Arcia Remains in LF.

August: Hicks is having a tremendous 2nd half of the season at Rochester, he is called up and is inserted into CF. Rosario moves to LF, and Parmelee remains in RF. Arcia becomes the primary DH with a few days of the week playing the Corner OF positions.

Outcome: Willingham is not traded and is on the DL for most of the season. Hicks gets about 275 PA’s and hits 9HR’s with a .790 OPS, Parmelee hits 12HR’s and has a .270 BA, Arcia hits 23HR’s with 80RBI’s and a .250ish BA. Rosario plays good in CF and is stellar in the corner spots. He Hits .310, with 13HR’s, steals 21 bases and wins ROY. Buxton is called up in September and plays around the same amount as Ben Revere did 2010.

The Twins win 77-83 games.

#19 Zephrin

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Posted 17 November 2013 - 11:49 PM

5. Arcia becomes the second best twins hitter.


Arcia already is the Twins second best hitter. Hopefully, by the end of the 2014 season we will be able to argue that he's only the 4th best hitter (behind Mauer, Sano and Buxton ;))

Arcia will probably be batting 3rd or 5th for the twins for the next several years. (and maybe 4th some until Sano settles in)

#20 matthew0211

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 09:13 AM

I think Hendricks is out of options and has to be up or waived. Despite his performance so far, I doubt he clears waivers.


Hendriks has another option year left. It will be interesting to see what happens with Worley, Diamond, and Deduno, who are all out of options. If all three are in the rotation come April, something has gone very, very wrong this offseason.

#21 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 10:51 AM

It would be cool (or hot if I were Paris Hilton) if there were September 2014 lineups of:

1. Buxton, CF
2. Mauer, 1B
3. Sano, 3B
4. Arcia, DH
5, Dozier, 2B
6. Rosario, LF
7. Pinto, C
8. Hicks, RF
9. Florimon, SS

#22 Thrylos

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 11:02 AM

It would be cool (or hot if I were Paris Hilton) if there were September 2014 lineups of:

1. Buxton, CF
2. Mauer, 1B
3. Sano, 3B
4. Arcia, DH
5, Dozier, 2B
6. Rosario, LF
7. Pinto, C
8. Hicks, RF
9. Florimon, SS


Arcia is way to young to be a DH and Rosario way more valuable in middle infield to be an OF. I'd rather have Arcia at LF. He is a better fielder already than the starting LFs the Twins have had for half a decade (easy to do, if those were Delmon and Willingham...) I just do not see Buxton in the bigs yet. I want to see him against AA pitchers and he did not do that hot against them in AFL... If he breaks through in New Britain there may be a September call up, but 2015 is more realistic.
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#23 Marta Shearing

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 02:19 PM

Arcia is way to young to be a DH and Rosario way more valuable in middle infield to be an OF. I'd rather have Arcia at LF. He is a better fielder already than the starting LFs the Twins have had for half a decade (easy to do, if those were Delmon and Willingham...) I just do not see Buxton in the bigs yet. I want to see him against AA pitchers and he did not do that hot against them in AFL... If he breaks through in New Britain there may be a September call up, but 2015 is more realistic.


Way too valuable to play in the outfield? Classic overthinking. I want the best 9 on the field, I dont care what position they play. Sure if you can trade Rosario for a top sp prospect you do it, but what are the odds of that happening? And concerning Arcia, I didnt realize there was an age cutoff to play DH. He is a terrible OF.

#24 stringer bell

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 02:24 PM

I've said this about Arcia before--he has the requisite skills to be a decent outfielder. He was bad in the outfield, but with hard work, he should be able to be an adequate corner OF, at worst. I don't have a problem with him DHing on occasion, but he shouldn't be pigeonholed at the age of 22 (or 24 or 25) as solely a hitter. There are always an abundance of hitters who can no longer play in the field to play DH and it would benefit both the team and the player for Arcia to be considered an outfielder and not just a DH.

#25 Thrylos

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 02:28 PM

Way too valuable to play in the outfield? Classic overthinking. I want the best 9 on the field, I dont care what position they play. Sure if you can trade Rosario for a top sp prospect you do it, but what are the odds of that happening? And concerning Arcia, I didnt realize there was an age cutoff to play DH. He is a terrible OF.


Rosario had around .770 OPS in New Britain. He is a doubles hitter. This is fine in the middle infield but not at corner outfield. There are fewer .770 OPS middle infielders than corner outfielders. Agree about having the best 9 on the field, but likely Rosario will not be among the best 3 OFs.

As far as Arcia goes, there is something called learning skills and developing. Koskie and Morneau were brutal on the field at first. Brutal. But a 23 year old can learn better and be more adequate than a 33 year old with a beaten up body. So there is an age cutoff before you make someone a full time DH.
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#26 stringer bell

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 02:29 PM

I continue to hold out hope for both Diamond and Worley. Both have had a successful season or more "at the major league level" and both are young enough to duplicate that success. While I realize advanced metrics don't provide promise of equalling their previous success, I think it is reasonable to expect results closer to their best than repeats of last year.

#27 Zephrin

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 03:41 PM

We definitely need to see how Rosario and Dozier perform this year - both doing well would be a good problem to have. To me, it seems like the best trades come out of positions of strength. I would probably rather trade one or the other at the deadline for a quality SP prospect - preferably AA or AAA, than convert Rosario back into an outfielder.

Personally, I am more sold on Rosario's bat and ability to be an adequate 2B than I am on Dozier's ability to continue hitting. If Rosario looks like he is going to be able to take the next step, and Dozier can't move to SS, I would probably look to trade Dozier at the deadline.

#28 spycake

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Posted 18 November 2013 - 08:53 PM

It would be cool (or hot if I were Paris Hilton) if there were September 2014 lineups of:

1. Buxton, CF
2. Mauer, 1B
3. Sano, 3B
4. Arcia, DH
5, Dozier, 2B
6. Rosario, LF
7. Pinto, C
8. Hicks, RF
9. Florimon, SS


With Alex Meyer on the mound, I presume? Hopefully he's up before September, though.