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Talks with Bronson Arroyo "heating up"

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#21 twinsfan34

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:44 AM

Josh Johnson
Kazmir
Hughes
Eric Chavez
R.Furcal

By no means sign Bronson Arroyo and his 87 mph fastball to anything over a 1 year contract


This.

I could leave Hughes out in the cold (people here had to convince me, but I am now against adding Hughes).

I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.

#22 DaveW

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:30 AM

I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.


The problem with that is you actually have to sign "good" pitching, also I have never been a huge fan of that, if you are going to drop 10-12 million on a guy, just for the purpose of trading him several months later, why not just use that 10-12 million and sign some international players or something?

#23 Boom Boom

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:40 AM

The problem with that is you actually have to sign "good" pitching, also I have never been a huge fan of that, if you are going to drop 10-12 million on a guy, just for the purpose of trading him several months later, why not just use that 10-12 million and sign some international players or something?


Well, for one thing, if you trade the guy you dropped 10-12 million on, the team you trade him to picks up a prorated portion of that money.

#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:40 AM

Arroyo isn't exciting but it's not a bad idea. He's durable and I think he'd pitch better at TF than in the bandbox in Cincy. We need innings and Gibson and Meyer might be able to pitch a combined 200 this year. I don't want to give him much more than we gave Correa but they have payroll to burn so as long as it isn't more than 2 years, the signing shouldn't hurt us. And while his krate is pretty low, he doesn't walk much so he certainly fits the Twins mold.


(I'd still like to see them add Hughes but I admit I don't know everything about these guys. I think Hughes is a guy who can really thrive in TF but I could be wrong and maybe he's a bullpen guy long term).

#25 Rosterman

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:46 AM

Sitting here as general manager Terry, you have to start making decisions. If someone is available in your price range, you do grab them, if they are considered "worthy." Yes, that was the problem he made with Correia, whom we all complain about, but ended up being the staff ace last season. Terry was running up against the wall in getting pitchers to consider Minnesota (especially at his offers) and we should, in hindsight, be glad that he didn't get a bunch of the names bandied about.

Most of us this season want Hughes. But Hughes is young, he can pitch, he has promise. He will be fielding offers out there. And I believe he may be one of the last guys to sign as his agent wiggles for more money or a longer contract. He may win, but anyone waiting JUST for him may lose.

Looks like Arroyo may be like Nathan or Correia. If someone comes in with a $10-12 million two year offer (three preferred)...they have him. Period.

Our Twins are still mired in the world of -- who wants to play here!? It either has to be because of money, or because they will win. If Ryan can do a couple of quick signings and sprnkle the background with some AAAA+ minor free agents, and if he still has $10 million or so leftover -- he just may pull off a third option or actually have agents CALLING him.

You can gets guys like Pelfrey, who will use the Twins as a rebuilder for themselves, but playing on a sub-.500 team doesn't do a whole heckuva a lot for a pitchers future worth if similar offers are available elsewhere.

Arroyo would be Pavano 2.0. If the lineup can score 4 runs a game, then Correia and Arroyo would be the staff anchors for this season (and both COULD be tradebait at what could be termed reasonable salaries).

Plus, the Twins DO have the money to spend. Would I rather see them spend $15 million a year on Hughes with a third year option than $12 million a year for the same thing with Arroyo. Yes, but I doubt that would happen.
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#26 DaveW

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:51 AM

I'm pretty sure most of us could handle "losing" out on Arroyo if he signs somewhere else quickly.

The guy is nothing special and is a dime a dozen type pitcher, he is 37 years old and has no upside at this point in his career. He will cost more then 10 mil over 2 years, most likely it will be close to double that, sure, he will give you innings, and if the Twins had 4 young pitchers in the rotation then Arroyo would be a great fit, however, the Twins already have an innings eater in Correia and several other non strike out guys.

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:56 AM

If they are going to blow 2-3 years on a 37 year old, why not go after Burnett?

#28 golfboy1

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:05 AM

This.

I could leave Hughes out in the cold (people here had to convince me, but I am now against adding Hughes).

I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.



But teams aren't going to give up anything good for a 87MPH back of the rotation starter making $12M. Teams in the playoff race are looking for something better than that. The Twins would be better off signing Josh Johnson & hope he rebounds if they are trying to flip for a prospect.

I hope this doesn't happen. Arroyo is a decent pitcher & he's durable but I'd rather see the Twins go for Hughes or Kazmir. Heck, I'd just as seen see them resign Pelfrey since he's younger & has a chance to put up numbers as good as Arroyo.

Signing Arroyo means the Twins have a chance to improve from 63 wins all the way up to 66 or 67 wins! Unless this is just their 1st signing & they still plan to go after someone better I'd rather see them pass.

#29 jay

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:13 AM

If they are going to blow 2-3 years on a 37 year old, why not go after Burnett?


I agree with the idea, but it's that commonly overlooked thing that free agents have -- choice. From MLBTR's free agent list: "Burnett will be even more picky than Kuroda, as he's deciding between the Pirates or retirement."

Even for as much as I'm sure we all love Minnesota, it's usually not as simple as waving dollar bills around.

#30 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:21 AM

Damn I want to cry. It's almost like the front office is taunting everyone who points to the fact that the lack of strikeouts is a major cause for the ineffectiveness of the rotation.

#31 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:30 AM

Given Arroyo's consistency and fortitude, his signing would likely make a riskier signing like Kazmir, Johnson, or Hughes more palatable.

#32 Willihammer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:35 AM

I agree with the idea, but it's that commonly overlooked thing that free agents have -- choice. From MLBTR's free agent list: "Burnett will be even more picky than Kuroda, as he's deciding between the Pirates or retirement."

Even for as much as I'm sure we all love Minnesota, it's usually not as simple as waving dollar bills around.


That might be true in Burnett's case but we heard it from Dave St Peter himself, for most guys its about "dollars and years."

#33 BigTrane

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:52 AM

Agree with others who say that 2 'big name' FA SP signings is realistic, esp; given Ryan's stated disposition to FAs. Just don't see him reinventing his outlook in the offseason.

That said, I think 1 good, young FA (i.e., a E. Santana/Shelds) with upside + an innings-eater vet sounds very much like Ryan's personality. Seems like a realistic 'fit' from his perspective. I can envision a Phase 2 in 2014 offseason where Twins try to attract a higher level of SP talent based on a more respectable '14 finish & promise of a core built around Sano & Buxton.

As much as I want the Twins to go big with sensible SP FA signings, the market is a bit thin this year, so overpaying will be the rule. Would Scherzer be great? Of course. Is Ryan willing to spend big, or likely to 'plug holes' with middling FAs + international signings/bargain bin reclamation projects? You know the score. A slightly overpriced Shields or Ervin seems doable.

Given that, 2 solid guys, 1 young(ish) with upside and 1 vet with presence seems like about the best we can hope for. Hopefully Twins as an org. realize that they are never going to be a go-to destination for FAs, and can only attract talent with talent (and a winning record). Step 1 has to be getting over .500... Twins have no trading chips, so FA is the only way to get there now.
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#34 James

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:54 AM

Given Arroyo's consistency and fortitude, his signing would likely make a riskier signing like Kazmir, Johnson, or Hughes more palatable.

I'm with you 100%, SABR. Signing him would basically be hedging your bets. I'm not 100% convinced it is a good idea, and I would not be excited if it was the Twins' only splash in free agency this year (or pitching acquisition).

If this was the first of one or two more pitching acquisitions, I wouldn't be against it.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#35 drivlikejehu

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 11:08 AM

Just signing Arroyo makes no sense. He adds 2 wins or so compared to the typical AAAA types the Twins throw out there. Once you are losing 90+ games, a couple wins here and there don't matter much.

Signing Arroyo in combination with other moves could make sense. But at this point we have no idea what will ultimately happen. It would take quite a bit to get the Twins in the realm of .500 ball.

#36 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 11:17 AM

Just signing Arroyo makes no sense. He adds 2 wins or so compared to the typical AAAA types the Twins throw out there. Once you are losing 90+ games, a couple wins here and there don't matter much.

Signing Arroyo in combination with other moves could make sense. But at this point we have no idea what will ultimately happen. It would take quite a bit to get the Twins in the realm of .500 ball.

With this logic, we should sign no one, because there are no free agents (in any combination) that bring us to guaranteed competitiveness. Whether the Twins are actually competitive next year, sidesteps what value Arroyo could have as a trade chit.

I also totally reject the notion that these "typical AAAA types" are so readily available once the season actually starts--as the Twins learn each and every year.

#37 Thrylos

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 11:19 AM

That might be true in Burnett's case but we heard it from Dave St Peter himself, for most guys its about "dollars and years."


Based on the source, he was probably talking about Country Music acts at Target Field...
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#38 jay

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 12:01 PM

That might be true in Burnett's case but we heard it from Dave St Peter himself, for most guys its about "dollars and years."


Sure, you can always be the bad team that overpays to get a guy to sign if you want a contract around like Russ Ortiz, Gil Meche, Mike Hampton, etc.

I could give you just as many sources saying how hard it is to get free agents to a terrible team like the Twins are right now. Heck, TR specifically talks about it in today's Strib.
http://www.startribu.../231680191.html

#39 drivlikejehu

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 12:19 PM

With this logic, we should sign no one, because there are no free agents (in any combination) that bring us to guaranteed competitiveness. Whether the Twins are actually competitive next year, sidesteps what value Arroyo could have as a trade chit.

I also totally reject the notion that these "typical AAAA types" are so readily available once the season actually starts--as the Twins learn each and every year.


Arroyo is not going to be a notable trade chit.

The Twins are not contending in 2014. So it seems to me that there are two general free agent profiles that make sense:

1. Cheap, one-year deal to fill a hole and maybe bring back C prospect at deadline
2. Longer-term deal for a player who will be around when the Twins might contend (probably 2016 at the earliest)

If the Twins get Arroyo for really cheap, it makes sense. But otherwise it really doesn't, other than the fact that the Twins refuse to target one of the pitchers who fit in group 2.

#40 Willihammer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 12:35 PM

Sure, you can always be the bad team that overpays to get a guy to sign if you want a contract around like Russ Ortiz, Gil Meche, Mike Hampton, etc.

I could give you just as many sources saying how hard it is to get free agents to a terrible team like the Twins are right now. Heck, TR specifically talks about it in today's Strib.
http://www.startribu.../231680191.html


So you would rather have Bronson Arroyo than Ervin Santana or M. Tanaka, is that it?