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Talks with Bronson Arroyo "heating up"

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#1 cmb0252

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:53 PM

According to Mike Berardino while negotiations of terms hasn't begun advance legwork (examining medical records/discussing guarantee language) shows Twins are serious. Arroyo has averaged $12 million the past 5 years and according to Berardino he is unlikely to take a pay cut. Most likely a multi year deal.

Here is what Tim Dierkes had to say about his 23rd ranked FA:
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Verdana]
Arroyo is the only pitcher in baseball to make at least 32 starts per year from 2005-13. Arroyo, 37 in February, is the game's most consistent innings-eater. It appears he'll move on from the Reds after eight seasons, and he didn't receive a potentially budget-busting qualifying offer. I've pegged Arroyo at two years and $24MM, which could be palatable for the Mets, Twins, Giants, and several other teams looking to solidify the backend of their rotation.

Law ranked him the 45th best FA and here is what he had to say:
[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Verdana]There's some value in durability, which Arroyo has, with 32 or more starts in nine straight seasons, including all eight since he moved to hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. He's had to ramp up the use of his slider as his velocity has slipped into the upper 80s, averaging about 87 mph the past three years, and his problems with the long ball are only likely to increase as he gets older.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Verdana]He fills up the strike zone and takes the ball every fifth day, which is somewhat faint praise but still makes him a $2 million to $3 million fifth-starter candidate on a one-year dea[/FONT][/COLOR]

#2 notoriousgod71

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 11:20 PM

It's nice that the Twins are willing to mix it up and go after a soft tosser. That will really fool opponents after seeing Correia and Diamond the previous two days.

#3 zchrz

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 11:25 PM

Going for Pavano 2.0? They could use a workhorse but it scares me if they spend 10+ on Arroyo then he is going to be the "major" addition. I am having this dark nightmare where the starters on opening day are Arroyo, Correia, Vargas, Gibson, and Dedeuno and TR is saying see I spent money on the rotation.
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#4 darin617

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 11:26 PM

Why not sign Arroyo and Scott Kazmir to 2 ye deals with club options for a 3rd yr. I don't think you will find any other starters better than them that might sign with the Twins. Fill out the rotation with some of the in house garbage until Kyle Gibson can prove he is ready for the majors and keep a seat warm for Alex Myers in early June or so.
1. Arroyo
2. Kazmir
3. Correia
4. ?
5. ?

#5 Shane Wahl

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 12:25 AM

This gets tricky. I would say that if the Twins cannot get TWO of E. Santana, Jimenez, Hughes, Kazmir, Haren, and Hudson (maybe a few others) than Arroyo is going to make sense. Arroyo is significantly better than Nolasco, who is somehow being considered for 3 or 4 years by some around here. Arroyo's issue is with the homers. He is Brad Radke, essentially. Brad Radke in TF would have been of some value. I have no problem with a two-year commitment to Arroyo as long as they really make an attempt at the other guys too.

#6 Shane Wahl

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 12:28 AM

I will say that Arroyo and Kendrys Morales (to hell with Doumit as DH) provide an appealing thing: crazy consistency. Look up their stats. It's weird how consistent they are.

#7 johnnydakota

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 12:37 AM

Josh Johnson
Kazmir
Hughes
Erick Chavez
R.Fucal

By no means sign Bronson Arroyo and his 87 mph fastball to anything over a 1 year contract

#8 beckmt

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 01:18 AM

I am fine with Johnson and Kazmir on 2 year deals. Anything more and you may be blocking the young pitchers coming up. I am scared of Arroyo as this is the American league and he will have few 8 and 9 hitters to pitch to after pitching around the guy or 2 above them.

#9 iastfan112

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 01:31 AM

I am fine with Johnson and Kazmir on 2 year deals. Anything more and you may be blocking the young pitchers coming up. I am scared of Arroyo as this is the American league and he will have few 8 and 9 hitters to pitch to after pitching around the guy or 2 above them.


Not too worried about that, if they're really knocking on the door you could always trade either one. Arroyo would be a nice pickup if he's the 2nd best FA pitcher signed this offseason. I certainly wouldn't want him on more than a 2 year deal though.

#10 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 01:52 AM

I have no problem with Arroyo for up to 3. If Kazmir is truly healthy, I like him for 2. Last year we used 11 starting pitchers, 9 of whom spend some time at Rochester. I like Diamond, Vanimal, Denuno, if he's not ready, as plan B. No idea how they will make it thru waivers. Meyer should be ready midseason. The rotation will be far from sexy, but it is a step forward.

This would position us to start 2015 with Arroyo, Kazmir, Meyer, and Gibson. I would spend or trade big to fill the final spot.

#11 Brandon

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 07:25 AM

Signing Arroyo would be a relief because we all know he is at least adequate. So now its on to who is the next pitcher. I like Kazmir cause he's a lefty and K's people. We will probably get Maholm or Campuano who are lefty but doesn't k as much. That still equals a decent rotation especially with our bullpen remember the blueprint for success I shared earlier on how Twins construct a winner.

#12 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 07:36 AM

Signing Arroyo would be a relief because we all know he is at least adequate. So now its on to who is the next pitcher. I like Kazmir cause he's a lefty and K's people. We will probably get Maholm or Campuano who are lefty but doesn't k as much. That still equals a decent rotation especially with our bullpen remember the blueprint for success I shared earlier on how Twins construct a winner.


Arroyo is just more of the same, It will be very disappointing if this is Ryan's big splash.

#13 Brandon

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 07:49 AM

Arroyo is just more of the same, It will be very disappointing if this is Ryan's big splash.


Having a pitcher who is capable of winning everytime out is a good thing. I hope we get 2 pitchers. If we get him that's 50% of the goal. We get another one and I guess a catcher now, we should be able to compete for a .500 record or better next year. Especially if the young hitters take a step forward.

#14 johnnydakota

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 07:58 AM

So your saying if we have a glut of quality starting pitchers ,that is a bad thing?Or that we would be stuck with them, Or are you saying if we are stuck with bad pitching it will block the wave of kids coming up?You see the 5 Players I listed are all the kind of guys that Ryan likes , coming off bad seasons ,hurt or older part time players.As for Bronson , he would be an improvement over some we have pencilled in , but is just more of the same ,telling me that you cant teach an ole dog new tricks

#15 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 07:59 AM

Having a pitcher who is capable of winning everytime out is a good thing. I hope we get 2 pitchers. If we get him that's 50% of the goal. We get another one and I guess a catcher now, we should be able to compete for a .500 record or better next year. Especially if the young hitters take a step forward.


Brandon, that's the way I see it too.

#16 Thrylos

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:07 AM

I have no problem with Arroyo for up to 3. .


Arroyo will be 37, 38 and 39 in those 3 years. Already his Fastball is down to mid 80s. His K-rate is like Correia's. His FIP and xFIP are at the Correia level. He is actually worse than Correia. How many pitchers close to 40 can perform at a high level (without PED - Mr Colon) ? Maybe the Twins should look at Jaimie Moyer (rumored unavailable) and Carl Pavano and Carlos Zambrano (both willing and available) while they are at it.

Law got it right. One year dear at low dollars at most and would make absolutely no sense for the Twins. And to a multi-year dear to regret, like Correia's and Capps' and Pavano's... They got their mediocre innings eater du jour in Correia, now they should go get some real pitching. I'd rather see Meyer than Arroyo pitch any day, because he will give the Twins a higher likelihood to win.
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#17 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:12 AM

Arroyo is just more of the same, It will be very disappointing if this is Ryan's big splash.


Now that Mark DeRosa is retired it may be the best player he can get.

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#18 Gernzy

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:23 AM

We need another workhorse, and I have no issue with this signing as long as this isn't the only pitcher we sign.
I bent my wookie...

#19 mike wants wins

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:30 AM

They need good pitchers. A number 4 starter really isn't going to advance the cause all that much. If this is the best they do, I'll be disappointed. I get the feeling they are more interested in innings and not having to use a ton of pitchers, than in good pitching, but maybe that's not right.
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#20 2wins87

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:33 AM

He will probably be ok, but this would be the epitome of an unexciting signing

#21 twinsfan34

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 08:44 AM

Josh Johnson
Kazmir
Hughes
Eric Chavez
R.Furcal

By no means sign Bronson Arroyo and his 87 mph fastball to anything over a 1 year contract


This.

I could leave Hughes out in the cold (people here had to convince me, but I am now against adding Hughes).

I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.

#22 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:30 AM

I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.


The problem with that is you actually have to sign "good" pitching, also I have never been a huge fan of that, if you are going to drop 10-12 million on a guy, just for the purpose of trading him several months later, why not just use that 10-12 million and sign some international players or something?

#23 Boom Boom

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:40 AM

The problem with that is you actually have to sign "good" pitching, also I have never been a huge fan of that, if you are going to drop 10-12 million on a guy, just for the purpose of trading him several months later, why not just use that 10-12 million and sign some international players or something?


Well, for one thing, if you trade the guy you dropped 10-12 million on, the team you trade him to picks up a prorated portion of that money.

#24 gunnarthor

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:40 AM

Arroyo isn't exciting but it's not a bad idea. He's durable and I think he'd pitch better at TF than in the bandbox in Cincy. We need innings and Gibson and Meyer might be able to pitch a combined 200 this year. I don't want to give him much more than we gave Correa but they have payroll to burn so as long as it isn't more than 2 years, the signing shouldn't hurt us. And while his krate is pretty low, he doesn't walk much so he certainly fits the Twins mold.


(I'd still like to see them add Hughes but I admit I don't know everything about these guys. I think Hughes is a guy who can really thrive in TF but I could be wrong and maybe he's a bullpen guy long term).

#25 Rosterman

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:46 AM

Sitting here as general manager Terry, you have to start making decisions. If someone is available in your price range, you do grab them, if they are considered "worthy." Yes, that was the problem he made with Correia, whom we all complain about, but ended up being the staff ace last season. Terry was running up against the wall in getting pitchers to consider Minnesota (especially at his offers) and we should, in hindsight, be glad that he didn't get a bunch of the names bandied about.

Most of us this season want Hughes. But Hughes is young, he can pitch, he has promise. He will be fielding offers out there. And I believe he may be one of the last guys to sign as his agent wiggles for more money or a longer contract. He may win, but anyone waiting JUST for him may lose.

Looks like Arroyo may be like Nathan or Correia. If someone comes in with a $10-12 million two year offer (three preferred)...they have him. Period.

Our Twins are still mired in the world of -- who wants to play here!? It either has to be because of money, or because they will win. If Ryan can do a couple of quick signings and sprnkle the background with some AAAA+ minor free agents, and if he still has $10 million or so leftover -- he just may pull off a third option or actually have agents CALLING him.

You can gets guys like Pelfrey, who will use the Twins as a rebuilder for themselves, but playing on a sub-.500 team doesn't do a whole heckuva a lot for a pitchers future worth if similar offers are available elsewhere.

Arroyo would be Pavano 2.0. If the lineup can score 4 runs a game, then Correia and Arroyo would be the staff anchors for this season (and both COULD be tradebait at what could be termed reasonable salaries).

Plus, the Twins DO have the money to spend. Would I rather see them spend $15 million a year on Hughes with a third year option than $12 million a year for the same thing with Arroyo. Yes, but I doubt that would happen.
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#26 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:51 AM

I'm pretty sure most of us could handle "losing" out on Arroyo if he signs somewhere else quickly.

The guy is nothing special and is a dime a dozen type pitcher, he is 37 years old and has no upside at this point in his career. He will cost more then 10 mil over 2 years, most likely it will be close to double that, sure, he will give you innings, and if the Twins had 4 young pitchers in the rotation then Arroyo would be a great fit, however, the Twins already have an innings eater in Correia and several other non strike out guys.

#27 Willihammer

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 09:56 AM

If they are going to blow 2-3 years on a 37 year old, why not go after Burnett?

#28 golfboy1

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:05 AM

This.

I could leave Hughes out in the cold (people here had to convince me, but I am now against adding Hughes).

I like the idea of adding pitching as trade bait come July. Wheelin' and dealin' jumpin' Billy Beane style.



But teams aren't going to give up anything good for a 87MPH back of the rotation starter making $12M. Teams in the playoff race are looking for something better than that. The Twins would be better off signing Josh Johnson & hope he rebounds if they are trying to flip for a prospect.

I hope this doesn't happen. Arroyo is a decent pitcher & he's durable but I'd rather see the Twins go for Hughes or Kazmir. Heck, I'd just as seen see them resign Pelfrey since he's younger & has a chance to put up numbers as good as Arroyo.

Signing Arroyo means the Twins have a chance to improve from 63 wins all the way up to 66 or 67 wins! Unless this is just their 1st signing & they still plan to go after someone better I'd rather see them pass.

#29 jay

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:13 AM

If they are going to blow 2-3 years on a 37 year old, why not go after Burnett?


I agree with the idea, but it's that commonly overlooked thing that free agents have -- choice. From MLBTR's free agent list: "Burnett will be even more picky than Kuroda, as he's deciding between the Pirates or retirement."

Even for as much as I'm sure we all love Minnesota, it's usually not as simple as waving dollar bills around.

#30 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 November 2013 - 10:21 AM

Damn I want to cry. It's almost like the front office is taunting everyone who points to the fact that the lack of strikeouts is a major cause for the ineffectiveness of the rotation.