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Article: Rumors and Expectations

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:28 AM

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdail...nd-Expectations

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:35 AM

I would pay Santana more than you want, Jimenez less than you want, and certainly Nolasco WAY less than you want. 4 years and $50+ million for Nolasco is insanity! He is Correia+.

#3 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:25 AM

By 2017, we will be able to provide our starting pitchers from our farm system. I wouldn't go over 3 years. Also, I would make prospects 5-15 available for the right starting pitcher.

#4 Sleestax

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:28 AM

[FONT=Verdana]So is the $75 mill to negotiate have any drawbacks besides the cost? Heck go all-in and sign this kid. Twins wont sign A.J. to catch...he is productive but has that terrible personality which is something we try to avoid. I cross my fingers on Pinto but dont expect the same numbers. Tanaka and Hughes would be good, a trade for Price better yet. I dont even know why I'm commenting...just keep giving us the goods![/FONT]

#5 Thrylos

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 06:11 AM

By 2017, we will be able to provide our starting pitchers from our farm system. I wouldn't go over 3 years. Also, I would make prospects 5-15 available for the right starting pitcher.


Other than Meyer who will arrive before 2017 (hopefully in 2014), the starting pitchers in the Twins system are a. not even close to being a "sure thing" that they will make it to the majors and perform and b. are those 5-15 prospects...
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#6 drivlikejehu

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 07:04 AM

The numbers you throw around aren't ace money anymore- that's #2 starter money.

I wouldn't be real 'nervous' about the Twins spending on someone like Ubaldo because they have no other use for the money, besides enriching the Pohlads further. The Twins payroll has plenty of space over the next 3-4 years, even if several prospects do well in 2014 and start their service time clocks.

They could sign one of the top FA pitchers, still be active in FA in future years, and still keep their own guys (few of whom are currently worth keeping), all while staying well under their alleged budget. Just go to Cot's and plug the numbers... it's actually quite hard to bust their budget.

#7 Winston Smith

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 08:24 AM

I'm not sure I'd go all in on Pinto based on less than 100 at bats. Salty would be nice but I can't see them spending that kind of money when they can save it by bringing Drew back.

#8 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 08:38 AM

I'm not aware of anyone that thinks any of those guys are ace types. You can either sign one of these risky guys, or go with the staff they have now. Which one is more likely to product good pitching?

#9 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 08:49 AM

I'm not aware of anyone that thinks any of those guys are ace types. You can either sign one of these risky guys, or go with the staff they have now. Which one is more likely to product good pitching?


I think going dumpster diving and/or making a trade is the prudent course. I understand we have more than enough money to make a bad deal, but I would save the bad deal money for the unknown.

#10 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 09:09 AM

I think going dumpster diving and/or making a trade is the prudent course. I understand we have more than enough money to make a bad deal, but I would save the bad deal money for the unknown.


I don't understand....are you suggesting that every FA signing is bad money? You don't trust TR and the scouts to find the right guy? I also have no idea what your last sentence means.

Are you talking about trading prospects for proven pitchers? Or something else?
Lighten up Francis....

#11 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 09:21 AM

Almost any of the FA pitchers, by year 3, teams will be giving up good players/prospects to try to get rid of them. None of them have had more than 2 'average' seasons in a row.

If the Twins have any players performing well, they need to continue to parlay those players for prospects.

e.g. I'd give quite a few of them 1-2 year deals. Higher salary. Like a Josh Johnson, give him $14M for 1 year. He's 10-2 at the All-Star break, trade him to a contender at the July deadline for a AA top 100 pitching prospect (e.g. Alex Meyer) and another stud A prospect.

These guys available are not good free agent pitchers. I'd big high for 1-2 year deals on these guys. Parlay them for picks if they're doing well. If they have a 2 year deal the team trading for the pitcher would get pick(s) the following year if that player leaves which would then replenish the prospects they gave up to get him while getting them in/through the playoffs.

Also, I don't agree that 2017 is when our pitching prospects will arrive. The 'average' is just over 4 years for a high school pitcher. Many of these guys have already been in the minors 1-3 years.

These are my timelines for when the Twins pitching prospects will arrive in the big leagues. If they don't make it by the year given or the following year - they won't be anything more than average to just not cutting it. It's the years listed (+1) or break.

2014: Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin, Trevor May (late)
2015: Mason Melotakis, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, DJ Baxendale
2016: Jose Berrios, Tyler Jones, Brett Lee, Felix Jorge, Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stephen Gonslaves, Corey Williams, Michael Sulbaran
2017: Yorman Landa, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero

Edited by twinsfan34, 12 November 2013 - 10:09 AM.


#12 halfchest

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 09:40 AM

I know some have cited next year as a better crop of free agents. Sure there are a few more guys who you might consider aces like scherzer or bailey but that's a long ways away, it seems like some of those guys always sign extensions before they're let go.

I would push for a 1-1-1 model to take a measured approach, to free agency, the farm system and the pitching staff.

1. Sign one decent starting pitcher, don't break the bank. Really any of the above guys makes sense. I'm thinking a 3-4 year deal getting around 10-12 million per year. Hughes, Kazmir, Arroyo. whoever, I suppose you could delve a little higher if they feel they can risk it cashwise. But do a deal like this that will add a little stability. I'd be hoping for a guy with a #3 floor (barring injury).

2. Take a flier - Go after a Josh Johnson or Johan on a 1-2 year deal maybe w/ an option. Gives you a high upside guy that could sit on IR or possibly be the Ace you are looking for for a year or two while our other guys develop.

3. Make a trade. We've got a rich farm system and while I don't want to be giving Tampa their next Rookie of the year for David Price maybe giving Detroit a call on Scherzer, or the Reds on Bailey is a smart move. Gives you a top of the rotation guy and even if we give up 2-3 good prospects we're still sitting w/ a nice farm system and a top 5 pick coming into the system next year. An extension is a must though if you're giving up valuable pieces to get a guy like this.

2014 rotation
Kazmir 8-10 million 2-3 years
Johnson/Johan 1-2 years
Bailey/Scherzer 4-5 year extension at 15-20 per

That's a decent 123 and you've then got Gibson/Correia/Deduno/Worley/Diamond/Meyer fighting for the other 2-3 spots. We've got money sunk into the rotation sure cuz

#13 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 09:43 AM

Twinsfan34, I think we are pretty much in agreement. I use a 3 to 1 ratio. 3 top prospects will yield 1 solid major league starter. We have Gibson and Meyer, so we need 9 more top pitching prospects. I like your years 2016 and 2017. I would add our first pick in 2014, and Wimmers as a darkhorse. By 2017 we should be able to take care of our starting pitching needs internally.

#14 Thrylos

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 09:48 AM

I'm not sure I'd go all in on Pinto based on less than 100 at bats. Salty would be nice but I can't see them spending that kind of money when they can save it by bringing Drew back.


I hope that the last sentence is pure sarcasm
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#15 halfchest

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 09:49 AM

Sorry didn't finish that last comment.
Basically this sinks around 30 million into the rotation for a couple years. That still gives us 10 million to play with this year to add apposition player. Plus you've got the hammer, Correia, and Doumit all coming off the books in 2015 to give us 16 million more to play with that year. No major players are in arb or will be in arb by 2015 so that's not a major concern there.

The Twins are in a nice spot payroll and farm system wise. They can risk a little and overpay for a mid rotation arm, trade for a top of the rotation arm and sign an upside guy without hamstringing the franchise financially or selling the farm.

#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:05 AM

Sorry didn't finish that last comment.
Basically this sinks around 30 million into the rotation for a couple years. That still gives us 10 million to play with this year to add apposition player. Plus you've got the hammer, Correia, and Doumit all coming off the books in 2015 to give us 16 million more to play with that year. No major players are in arb or will be in arb by 2015 so that's not a major concern there.

The Twins are in a nice spot payroll and farm system wise. They can risk a little and overpay for a mid rotation arm, trade for a top of the rotation arm and sign an upside guy without hamstringing the franchise financially or selling the farm.


Well reasoned statement here.
Lighten up Francis....

#17 Rosterman

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:26 AM

Okay, the Twins get $25 million in TV monies. 52% of that is like $13 million that they didn't have last year and will have for future years. You can buy a nice front-line starter for that money. My question is, where does that other $12 million go. You can buy a lot of draft choices (above and beyond the money you already have budgeted), hire additional ushers for each empty section of the stadium, give bigger glasses of beer or larger hot dogs now for the same price, let everyone park for free every season to see a Twins game, remodel the executive washrooms at Target Field, pay down Stadium debt sooner...or spend ALSO that money on additional talent on the field, which will increase revenue in most areas like concessions and such that would probably more than compensate holding onto that media payoff for stiockholders and more comfortable chairs in the Legends Club.

#18 Rosterman

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:30 AM

Almost any of the FA pitchers, by year 3, teams will be giving up good players/prospects to try to get rid of them. None of them have had more than 2 'average' seasons in a row.

If the Twins have any players performing well, they need to continue to parlay those players for prospects.

e.g. I'd give quite a few of them 1-2 year deals. Higher salary. Like a Josh Johnson, give him $14M for 1 year. He's 10-2 at the All-Star break, trade him to a contender at the July deadline for a AA top 100 pitching prospect (e.g. Alex Meyer) and another stud A prospect.

These guys available are not good free agent pitchers. I'd big high for 1-2 year deals on these guys. Parlay them for picks if they're doing well. If they have a 2 year deal the team trading for the pitcher would get pick(s) the following year if that player leaves which would then replenish the prospects they gave up to get him while getting them in/through the playoffs.

Also, I don't agree that 2017 is when our pitching prospects will arrive. The 'average' is just over 4 years for a high school pitcher. Many of these guys have already been in the minors 1-3 years.

These are my timelines for when the Twins pitching prospects will arrive in the big leagues. If they don't make it by the year given or the following year - they won't be anything more than average to just not cutting it. It's the years listed (+1) or break.

2014: Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin, Trevor May (late)
2015: Mason Melotakis, Luke Bard, Zack Jones, DJ Baxendale
2016: Jose Berrios, Tyler Jones, Brett Lee, Felix Jorge, Kohl Stewart, Ryan Eades, Stephen Gonslaves, Corey Williams, Michael Sulbaran
2017: Yorman Landa, Randy Rosario, Fernando Romero


Not to mention back of the rotation guys like:

Logan, Wimmers, Dean in 2014 for example.

Plus the Twins will still have names like Hendriks, Albers, Diamond, Worley, Pressly hanging around.

Maybe Hermsen will rebound.

You would hope hat by 2016 the Twins would have a Rays caliber rotation of homegrown tlent with bodies to trade.
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#19 jharaldson

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:47 AM

There are a number of posts in this thread that imply in the next couple of years we will have enough guys from the minors graduate to the majors that we won't have spots available for any free agents and that free agent pitchers may actually inhibit good pitchers from coming up. I did a quick analysis of the past 5 World Series winners and looked for guys that met the following criteria:

- Started 10 or more games for team that year
- Signed to a major league free agent contract or traded as a major league player.

I found the following:

Boston 2013
Lackey
Dempster
Peavy


San Fransisco 2012
Zito


St. Louis 2011
Lohse
Carpenter
Jackson
Westbrook


San Fransisco 2010
Zito
Wellemeyer


New York 2009
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte

On average the teams that win the World Series have about half of their staff made of Free Agent pitchers or big trade acquisitions. I don't think it is realistic to think that we will have a staff full of minor league developed talent (+Correia for 1 year) and actually win anything.

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 10:55 AM

Okay, the Twins get $25 million in TV monies. 52% of that is like $13 million that they didn't have last year and will have for future years. You can buy a nice front-line starter for that money. My question is, where does that other $12 million go. You can buy a lot of draft choices (above and beyond the money you already have budgeted), hire additional ushers for each empty section of the stadium, give bigger glasses of beer or larger hot dogs now for the same price, let everyone park for free every season to see a Twins game, remodel the executive washrooms at Target Field, pay down Stadium debt sooner...or spend ALSO that money on additional talent on the field, which will increase revenue in most areas like concessions and such that would probably more than compensate holding onto that media payoff for stiockholders and more comfortable chairs in the Legends Club.


Great model that if no matter how much your revenue goes up, you pocket 48% of it....there is only so much of that $12MM you can spend on non-salary stuff. At some point, they already have a lot of new revenue, that has gone to non-salary expenses. Not sure what else it is being spent on.
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#21 Chance

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 11:11 AM

Not to mention back of the rotation guys like:

Logan, Wimmers, Dean in 2014 for example.

Plus the Twins will still have names like Hendriks, Albers, Diamond, Worley, Pressly hanging around.

Maybe Hermsen will rebound.

You would hope hat by 2016 the Twins would have a Rays caliber rotation of homegrown tlent with bodies to trade.


Another name missing is Lewis Thorpe. He should be showing up in the 2016/2017 crop.

#22 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 11:53 AM

There are a number of posts in this thread that imply in the next couple of years we will have enough guys from the minors graduate to the majors that we won't have spots available for any free agents and that free agent pitchers may actually inhibit good pitchers from coming up. I did a quick analysis of the past 5 World Series winners and looked for guys that met the following criteria:

- Started 10 or more games for team that year
- Signed to a major league free agent contract or traded as a major league player.

I found the following:

Boston 2013
Lackey
Dempster
Peavy


San Fransisco 2012
Zito


St. Louis 2011
Lohse
Carpenter
Jackson
Westbrook


San Fransisco 2010
Zito
Wellemeyer


New York 2009
Sabathia
Burnett
Pettitte

On average the teams that win the World Series have about half of their staff made of Free Agent pitchers or big trade acquisitions. I don't think it is realistic to think that we will have a staff full of minor league developed talent (+Correia for 1 year) and actually win anything.


There are some problems with this analysis. The context of the discussion here is the viability of free agency and trades to turn around a team immediately.

2013 – Boston traded for Peavy mid season for a playoff run which is a very different set of circumstances. He had little to do with their post season success. He got pounded in his league championship series start. Dempster had a poor a year. The fact that he was on the roster when they won is hardly indicative of that acquisition contributing to their WS run. He was 8-9 for a dominant club with a 4.57 ERA. He pitched 3 innings in the post season with an ERA of 9.

2012 – Barry Zito had a WAR of .8. and an ERA of 4.15. He really sucked in 2013. He is actually a very good example of why you don’t want to sign long contract with free agent SPs. His cumulative WAR was 5.9 in 7 seasons for $126M. Yuk! Yet you use him as an example of success.

2011 - Carpenter was reclamation project after being out in 2003. Good move on the cardinals part but it does nothing to support the argument of signing the 5+ year guys to huge contracts. Westbrook pitched 116 innings with a K/9 of 5.11 with an ERA of 4.66. Jackson was a rental for a contending team.

2010 – Wellmeyer was a complete non-factor. It is silly to even include him. He was 3-5 with an ERA of 5.68 and WAR of -.8. He only pitched 58.2 innings. Zito has already been discussed.

2009 – Well, the Yankees can afford to buy a SP staff. They literally could buy an entire starting 5 and still have the Twins budget remaining to pay the remainder of the team.

You also fail to consider that these teams are 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 9th in terms of revenue. That is going to allow them to approach free agency in a very different way as compared to the Twins or other mid market clubs.

#23 Rosterman

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:04 PM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]"I have no problem with the concept of the Twins spending. I just think fans need to understand these guys that are likely to get 4-5 year contracts worth $60 to $100 million are not the sure-fire aces their contracts will imply. If the Twins sign one of them to crazy money, I’ll hope like crazy he stays healthy and pitches consistently well. I just don’t see an arm in this free agent class that is worth breaking the bank for.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Thankfully we have this comment section so in the years to come we can all go back and remember what we said, what we would have offered and stand by those comments over the life of these contracts." -- Seth

Like you said, Seth. Who knows. It is fun to look back, just this last season being a great example where so many of us wanted the Twins to sign Myers or Saunders or any number of other guys that didn't pan out. As a team, one factor you always have to look at is how much salary you can eat that wil be non-productive. Recently the Twins ahd Balckburn. They had Toshi for two year, plus the posting fee. You paid Nathan for 1.5 non-productive seasons. That does magnify when you have 2-3 large contracts out there -- Morneau for example. Maybe you have insurance and luck out. Maybe you have Joe Mays collecting paychecks. Possibly you sign a Pavano who just eats payroll and is unable to be moved. Being an armchair general manager is the easy job, dealing with real monies and revenue is a hard job. Your budget does allow you to take risks, but, yes, we fans often forget that we have to realistically look down the line...what that contract is doing two/three/four years from now (i.e. Mauer, for example). Less of a risk on prospects and AAA talent, you just replace them with equal value and hope for a few winners that all click together.[/COLOR]

#24 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:10 PM

to major league ready:

Who said signing a FA this year has to fix the team for only the next year? Or that it has to fix all of their problems? Why can't they add a good FA pitcher for 3-5 year deal, and have him around in 2 years when hopefully they have more talent around him?

And, I don't get the argument. Since a FA can't fix the team completely right now, they should not sign one at all?
Lighten up Francis....

#25 mike wants wins

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:13 PM

rosterman: who on these boards other than 1 or 2 people, has not commented on the contract situation 2-4 years out when suggesting the team sign players? They get even more money off the books next year. They get more revenue from the league. They have unspent budget. No one needs a raise next year that matters. No one needs a raise the following year, or even the year after that.

There is a ton of risk with prospects, they don't usually work out. Unless you are better than other teams at developing them, not as good, but significantly better, that route is super risky.
Lighten up Francis....

#26 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 12:34 PM

rosterman: who on these boards other than 1 or 2 people, has not commented on the contract situation 2-4 years out when suggesting the team sign players? They get even more money off the books next year. They get more revenue from the league. They have unspent budget. No one needs a raise next year that matters. No one needs a raise the following year, or even the year after that.

There is a ton of risk with prospects, they don't usually work out. Unless you are better than other teams at developing them, not as good, but significantly better, that route is super risky.


Is there any less risk with signing free agents that are being discussed here?

How many Free Agent pitchers worked out last year?

And for how long?

If I get a prospect who turns out, I get salary arbitration years too.

And how do you assess 'risk'? Not winning the World Series? How many wins? This year? Next Year?

What are some examples of good Free Agent signings? What made it a good signing?

Admittedly, I struggle with seeing being 5-10 wins 'better' because we signed 3 guys at $40M+ per season (combined total)...for just a little better WAR (wins above replacement).

When at least, with a 23-25 year old..he could be something and if he gets expensive trade him off at peak value (this is very Billy Beane separates himself from other GM's).

I see that approach, unless I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox...and other top market teams...as the most obvious way to go.

I could be wrong. So I'm trying to see the value or 'less risk' involved with signing these other guys?

Is going 71 and 91 better than 66-96? Is going 74-88 with $40M more locked up in salaries better than top 5 draft picks each of those 4 seasons?

The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.

Edited by twinsfan34, 12 November 2013 - 01:01 PM.


#27 Riverbrian

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:13 PM

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]"I have no problem with the concept of the Twins spending. I just think fans need to understand these guys that are likely to get 4-5 year contracts worth $60 to $100 million are not the sure-fire aces their contracts will imply. If the Twins sign one of them to crazy money, I’ll hope like crazy he stays healthy and pitches consistently well. I just don’t see an arm in this free agent class that is worth breaking the bank for.[/COLOR]

[COLOR=#3E3E3E]Thankfully we have this comment section so in the years to come we can all go back and remember what we said, what we would have offered and stand by those comments over the life of these contracts." -- Seth

Like you said, Seth. Who knows. It is fun to look back, just this last season being a great example where so many of us wanted the Twins to sign Myers or Saunders or any number of other guys that didn't pan out. As a team, one factor you always have to look at is how much salary you can eat that wil be non-productive. Recently the Twins ahd Balckburn. They had Toshi for two year, plus the posting fee. You paid Nathan for 1.5 non-productive seasons. That does magnify when you have 2-3 large contracts out there -- Morneau for example. Maybe you have insurance and luck out. Maybe you have Joe Mays collecting paychecks. Possibly you sign a Pavano who just eats payroll and is unable to be moved. Being an armchair general manager is the easy job, dealing with real monies and revenue is a hard job. Your budget does allow you to take risks, but, yes, we fans often forget that we have to realistically look down the line...what that contract is doing two/three/four years from now (i.e. Mauer, for example). Less of a risk on prospects and AAA talent, you just replace them with equal value and hope for a few winners that all click together.[/COLOR]


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#28 Alex

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:25 PM

The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.


Context is important, but saying people can't complain or be frustrated because other organizations were worse isn't a very compelling argument.

Also, I don't get the debate about whether it has to be prospects OR free agents. The Twins are in a position to acquire both.

#29 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:34 PM

Is there any less risk with signing free agents that are being discussed here?

How many Free Agent pitchers worked out last year?

And for how long?

If I get a prospect who turns out, I get salary arbitration years too.

And how do you assess 'risk'? Not winning the World Series? How many wins? This year? Next Year?

What are some examples of good Free Agent signings? What made it a good signing?

Admittedly, I struggle with seeing being 5-10 wins 'better' because we signed 3 guys at $40M+ per season (combined total)...for just a little better WAR (wins above replacement).

When at least, with a 23-25 year old..he could be something and if he gets expensive trade him off at peak value (this is very Billy Beane separates himself from other GM's).

I see that approach, unless I'm the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox...and other top market teams...as the most obvious way to go.

I could be wrong. So I'm trying to see the value or 'less risk' involved with signing these other guys?

Is going 71 and 91 better than 66-96? Is going 74-88 with $40M more locked up in salaries better than top 5 draft picks each of those 4 seasons?

The Pirates had losing seasons for 20 years...the Twins for 3...and people are getting their undies in a wad.


Which 23-25 yr olds should the Twins acquire, and how do they get them for nothing but money?

#30 twinsfan34

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Posted 12 November 2013 - 01:38 PM

Which 23-25 yr olds should the Twins acquire, and how do they get them for nothing but money?


I never implied to acquire them (but sounds good to me).

It was to play them.