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Mackey: How to Fix the Twins

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:02 AM

Phil Mackey posted his annual 3-part series on how to fix the Twins.

Part 1 focuses on the Twins biggest (of many) needs.

Part 2 looked at some possible free agent and trade targets.

Part 3 considers what the Twins can and should do this winter.

What do you think?

#2 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:12 AM

I think this reads like someone who felt this is a wasted effort. It's a great write up, but you could just feel that his nagging caveat about IF they spend was present the whole time. Hard to write a serious offseason plan when you just think its all for nought.

Good plan though, if we got Kazmir and Hughes, I'd be quite happy. My bar is that low.

#3 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:20 AM

I like it!

#4 pierre75275

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 01:57 PM

The twins need to sign Tanaka and Kazmir. That would help a lot. They also need to sign AJ. I would also check in to see if they could get Jurickson Profar without giving up one of the big three. i doubt it tho. That is pry a convo for next offseason anyway. I would also sign tanaka to as long a contract as I could, which would drive up hs trade value. Especially if he is as good as everyone says he is

#5 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 02:16 PM

I think this reads like someone who felt this is a wasted effort. It's a great write up, but you could just feel that his nagging caveat about IF they spend was present the whole time. Hard to write a serious offseason plan when you just think its all for nought.

Good plan though, if we got Kazmir and Hughes, I'd be quite happy. My bar is that low.


Interesting, I had the same thoughts yet it I didn't realize how sad it was until I heard someone else say it.

I agree with Mackey but I think he's going to be disappointed when he sees the prices for these guys. He's estimating about $10-12 million per year for the top guys. I think it's going to be closer to $15-17 million per. There's extra revenue out there, don't think the agents and players association isn't going to be putting the screws to the owners to share the wealth. They'll cry collusion if player salaries don't go up.

Mackey's suggested retail prices would almost indicate a reduction in pay considering last year's equivilant pitchers, Sanchez, Dempster, Jackson, Haren, Kuroda and Peavy all topped $12 million per season. Even Scott Boras' martyred Kyle Lohse* with is unfortunate QO tag ended up getting $11 million per once all was said and done.

*[SIZE=1]Lohse sympathy performed with joyful sarcasm
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#6 cmb0252

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 02:30 PM

I think this reads like someone who felt this is a wasted effort. It's a great write up, but you could just feel that his nagging caveat about IF they spend was present the whole time. Hard to write a serious offseason plan when you just think its all for nought.

Good plan though, if we got Kazmir and Hughes, I'd be quite happy. My bar is that low.


Try hard for Bailey and if that fails I would still be happy with Hughes/Kazmir combo. Hughes on a 1 year deal, with incentives, and a possible second year option (like the Liriano deal). Kazmir on a 2 year deal. Both bring huge upside but not a ton of risk because of the length of the contracts.

#7 JB_Iowa

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 02:33 PM

I found the money issue interesting as well. Not just in the projected salaries but in Mackey's comments about what the Twins' payroll may be ... especially this exchange in the comments:

Jesse Haraldson
[COLOR=gray][FONT=Helvetica Neue] · Minneapolis, Minnesota
[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#333333][FONT=Helvetica Neue][COLOR=gray][COLOR=#1A1A1A]
Phil, does this analysis includes the extra $25 million the Twins will get from MLB due to increased national MLB TV contracts?

http://www.fangraphs...-2014-payrolls/

[/COLOR][/COLOR]
[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=gray][COLOR=#1A1A1A]
Phil Mackey
[COLOR=gray] · Top Commenter · Reusse and Mackey Show at Hubbard Broadcasting
[/COLOR][COLOR=gray][COLOR=#1A1A1A]Every team gets that. For the Twins consider it a bandaid for the drop in attendance.[/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Helvetica Neue][COLOR=gray][COLOR=#1A1A1A]


So, now we are talking about merely pocketing the $20- $30m that went unspent this year that helped LEAD to the drop in attendance. PLUS we are saying that the extra $25m from TV (or $12.5m if you want to use 50%) also doesn't play a role.

I'm getting a sick feeling in my stomach. (Not that I find any of this unexpected but it pretty much proves to me that until I see Terry Ryan spend the $$$, I'm not going to get my hopes up too high).

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#8 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 03:47 PM

Try hard for Bailey and if that fails I would still be happy with Hughes/Kazmir combo. Hughes on a 1 year deal, with incentives, and a possible second year option (like the Liriano deal). Kazmir on a 2 year deal. Both bring huge upside but not a ton of risk because of the length of the contracts.


I hope, personally, that if Hughes is signed it's a 2-3 year deal. We have the space and rotation availability to give him plenty of time to build some value.

#9 cmb0252

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 04:00 PM

I hope, personally, that if Hughes is signed it's a 2-3 year deal. We have the space and rotation availability to give him plenty of time to build some value.


Why? A lot of people keep saying this and I don't understand it. Why sign him for 3 years when we can get him for one, with possibly an option year, let him show us what he's got before trying to resign him. While he has upside there are some experts who think he might be a RPer going forward.

#10 mike wants wins

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 04:21 PM

Why? A lot of people keep saying this and I don't understand it. Why sign him for 3 years when we can get him for one, with possibly an option year, let him show us what he's got before trying to resign him. While he has upside there are some experts who think he might be a RPer going forward.


And if he is good? What would you need to pay him then? What is the risk of signing him for 3 years? Wasted money....money that is not likely to be spent on any long term deal for SP under your logic, I'd think. I could be mistaking your sentiment, but I read it as: don't spend multiple years on risky FA pitchers, which describes all but the most expensive FAs, which I don't think any of us think this team will ever sign.
Lighten up Francis....

#11 drivlikejehu

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 04:23 PM

Hughes is very mediocre. Maybe slightly better than Pelfrey, but guys like that just aren't going to make a difference.

Either sign someone with upside for 1 year, with the possibility of flipping him at the deadline, or sign a legitimately good pitcher (preferably both). Both of those kind of moves can improve the club's chances in 2015 or 2016.

#12 Trevor0333

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 05:26 PM

1st Tanaka is not signing here, even if they make the highest bid he has the option to choose between the 3 highest bids. It's either going to be a contender or someone on the west coast.

Can we please get off Phil Hughes, even when he has been healthy he hasn't been good. He is a extreme fly ball pitcher & there are plenty of band boxes in the AL central. Also both Johnson & Hughes have said they want 1 year deals to establish their value.

Edited by Trevor0333, 11 November 2013 - 05:29 PM.


#13 Kwak

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 05:34 PM

The Twins' need for starting pitching will be for at least three years--it makes no sense to sign a guy for one-year so he can "re-build his reputation". Especially if said price is $10MM for one season.

#14 Shane Wahl

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 05:44 PM

Maybe if the Twins get one of the top three bids and then Terry Ryan shows up to a meeting speaking Japanese . . . .

#15 Teflon

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 06:23 PM

That Mackey's piece on how to fix the Twins is now referred to as an annual article by Seth is a bit depressing.

#16 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 07:02 PM

That Mackey's piece on how to fix the Twins is now referred to as an annual article by Seth is a bit depressing.


Like.

(I hate it that the [SIZE=2]LIKE [/SIZE]button has vanished)

I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.


#17 clutterheart

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 07:51 PM

I am getting tired of seeing the below, and fans buying into it:

The Twins are wary of locking into bad contracts


What team isn't wary of a bad contracts? Bad contracts are the risk of FA, just like missing on a draft pick is the risk of missing in scouting & development, or missing on trades like the Revere trade.

The only difference is a miss draft pick/trade doesn't hurt the ownership's pockets like a bad a contract.

This current team is not good, and they have a system that lacks pitching due to bad drafting/injuries/bad luck.

So...unless you want to stink, you have to take the risk of bad contracts.
If you don't, you are a bad team unless your prospects become good.

Edited by clutterheart, 11 November 2013 - 07:56 PM.


#18 cmb0252

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:08 PM

And if he is good? What would you need to pay him then? What is the risk of signing him for 3 years? Wasted money....money that is not likely to be spent on any long term deal for SP under your logic, I'd think. I could be mistaking your sentiment, but I read it as: don't spend multiple years on risky FA pitchers, which describes all but the most expensive FAs, which I don't think any of us think this team will ever sign.


If we offer him a one year deal several things could happen. If he is bad well he walks after the year and there is nothing to worry about. If he is good we can try to extend him. If he is good and doesn't want to be extended we can offer him a quified offer which gives us the best chance to sign him or get a draft pick as compensation. If he is good and the Twins aren't we could also try moving him at the deadline. As we saw with Willingham teams aren't jumping to trade for guys that have 2 1/2 years left. Win/win/win in my book.

#19 cmb0252

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:10 PM

The Twins' need for starting pitching will be for at least three years--it makes no sense to sign a guy for one-year so he can "re-build his reputation". Especially if said price is $10MM for one season.


The Twins need To sign players who will help this year OR could be assets at the trade deadline if the team sucks again.

#20 MinnesotaMike

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:12 PM

Why? A lot of people keep saying this and I don't understand it. Why sign him for 3 years when we can get him for one, with possibly an option year, let him show us what he's got before trying to resign him. While he has upside there are some experts who think he might be a RPer going forward.


So let me get this right. Spend 10-15 million on him for 1 year and let him hit the lottery by being a fantastic pitcher next year and then try to resign him? If that happens you're guaranteed to be out of the sweepstakes of trying to resign him. A multi year deal gives you some chance of hope that you might catch lightning in a bottle.

#21 ashburyjohn

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:21 PM

What team isn't wary of a bad contracts?


The Angels come to mind. :)

#22 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:23 PM

1st Tanaka is not signing here, even if they make the highest bid he has the option to choose between the 3 highest bids. It's either going to be a contender or someone on the west coast.

Can we please get off Phil Hughes, even when he has been healthy he hasn't been good. He is a extreme fly ball pitcher & there are plenty of band boxes in the AL central. Also both Johnson & Hughes have said they want 1 year deals to establish their value.


Last I checked, the ideas of changing the posting rules are merely speculation.... and I'm pretty sure that it would have to be agreed upon by both sides.

You'll probably have to link Hughes' statement about a 1 year deal. I haven't heard that. He hasn't lived up to expectations, but he hasn't been terrible either, and that is in a bandbox of a park. I'm guessing he gets a multi year deal.

#23 cmb0252

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:31 PM

Last I checked, the ideas of changing the posting rules are merely speculation.... and I'm pretty sure that it would have to be agreed upon by both sides.

You'll probably have to link Hughes' statement about a 1 year deal. I haven't heard that. He hasn't lived up to expectations, but he hasn't been terrible either, and that is in a bandbox of a park. I'm guessing he gets a multi year deal.


Tim Dierkes, Keith Law, and Buster Olney have all said that he should be looking for a one year deal like Jackson two years ago or a Liriano 1 year deal with an option like last year. Hughes' agent came out months ago saying Hughes would be willing to listen on one year deals.

#24 Shane Wahl

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:29 PM

Signing players, especially pitchers, two one-year deals involves the following considerations:

1. Looking at the potential of dealing with the exact same terrible situation this time a year from now (mitigated, potentially, by Meyer-Gibson-May).
2. Hoping that said player does very well and can be dealt or does well and wants to actually return (though wanting a multi-year deal).
3. If he sucks, then well, it's a one-year deal.

I was very against the idea of signing one year guys, but I have come around.

I am not sure how Hughes would take to Minnesota. He might really like it, for all we know. I know little other than his Christianity, but perhaps he just wants to get the hell out of a crazy media-infested environment.

I get really cautious about Kazmir, by the way. I mean . . . it's been a disaster since what 2008 aside from a goodish 2013. I like him on principle since he strikes people out a lot. I am sick of watching this nonsense. I would be happy with any 1-3 year deal for Hughes and Kazmir.

#25 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:38 PM

How about the Twins just overpay enough for one year of (insert hotly-debated, question-mark pitcher) so that he is amicable to an reasonable option year?

If Hughes for example is only getting $7 million offers, one would think he may consider a $9 million deal from the Twins with a $10 million 2015 club option.

#26 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:54 PM

Playing in the shallow end of free agency with guys who won't get multi yr offers is how you end up with Pelfrey, Correia, Jason Marquis, Livan Hernandez et al.

The Twins need starting pitching, in 2014 and beyond. Signing only from the bottom tier isn't going to fix that any more than it ever has.

I never have liked the idea of Hughes...and if all he's worth is a one yr offer, I think that just confirms my opinion.