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Realistic SP for Twins (let's be real)

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#1 jcphitman

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:10 AM

We won't sign more than two and even that might be a stretch. We all know we'll be underwhelmed this year. I hope the key for the Twins is they sign pitchers that help.

We already know three spots are spoken for next year:
Correia
Deduno (I read somewhere that they said he has a spot)
Gibson

They are locks IMO. The Twins will probably let Worley/Diamond/Hendricks fight it out for a spot too.

That leaves truly one or two spots max. The key is who they sign.

They won't get the stud from Japan (they'll "bid" and it'll be low). They won't get Garza. They won't get E. Santanta or Nolasco (I'm sure that I have his name wrong) due to the crazy money both want.

IMO, the best they can do and hope for is Phil Hughes. They should be willing to overpay and break the bank for him. He's young enough, has hope, and would come to our spacious pitchers park.

There are a lot of choices out there, but Hughes seems to be the best with what we need for the future.

If we do sign another one beyond or Hughes or another pitcher, it might be J. Santana just for the memories. I doubt we will though. In the end, I think it'll be Hughes.

Our SP:
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Gibson
Worley

In the minors: Diamond, Hendricks, and Albers

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.

#2 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:34 AM

I agree with your premises and your conclusion. I think they believe in those three, and will have the others fight it out for the last spot, leaving 1 real open spot. I also agree they will think Meyer is nearly ready. I think your logic is spot on.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#3 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:03 AM

We won't sign more than two and even that might be a stretch. We all know we'll be underwhelmed this year. I hope the key for the Twins is they sign pitchers that help.

We already know three spots are spoken for next year:
Correia
Deduno (I read somewhere that they said he has a spot)
Gibson

They are locks IMO. The Twins will probably let Worley/Diamond/Hendricks fight it out for a spot too.

That leaves truly one or two spots max. The key is who they sign.

They won't get the stud from Japan (they'll "bid" and it'll be low). They won't get Garza. They won't get E. Santanta or Nolasco (I'm sure that I have his name wrong) due to the crazy money both want.

IMO, the best they can do and hope for is Phil Hughes. They should be willing to overpay and break the bank for him. He's young enough, has hope, and would come to our spacious pitchers park.

There are a lot of choices out there, but Hughes seems to be the best with what we need for the future.

If we do sign another one beyond or Hughes or another pitcher, it might be J. Santana just for the memories. I doubt we will though. In the end, I think it'll be Hughes.

Our SP:
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Gibson
Worley

In the minors: Diamond, Hendricks, and Albers

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.


I agree for the most part. I think they will bring in Hughes and bring back Pelf. Meyer will be up with the team out of ST or at the break at the latest.

Hughes
Meyer
Gibson
Deduno
Pelf

That is enough to get you to the playoffs with a decent offense and maybe win in the playoffs with a great offense (something we could easily have in 1-2 years). What I like most about that group is that they all could go out and reasonably throw a gem against many teams. Some of the guys we were trotting out the last 2-3 years we were hoping they could just be OK and take it as a good day. Just as important, our first backups in AAAA are now Worley and Diamond, two guys who have shown they can succeed at the MLB level and have the potential to bounce back after a post injury year. Whether May develops or not, at least 1 of the A-level kids will turn into a very solid starter 2-4 years down the line as well. Sign one "B-B+" free agent SP like Hughes and another "C-C+" free agent SP like Pelf and I will consider it a winning offseason.

#4 Willihammer

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:13 AM

Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015


"You can't have too much pitching."

-Terry Ryan, 2012

#5 Craig in MN

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:16 AM

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.


That is NOT a victory. That is taking the team with BY FAR the worst rotation in baseball, and replace one starter (Pelfrey) with a 5.19 ERA, with another starter (Hughes) with a 5.19 ERA. That isn't a victory...that is exactly the same as this year. Hughes might better than Pelfrey next year, but that's far from guaranteed. Hoping for players to be better next year is wonderful, but every team is doing that....our chances of it being true are no better than anyone else's.

There are five spots in a rotation, and usually there are injuries where you'll need the equivalent of 6 or more. This is a team that CAN bring in 2 legitimate pitchers. They don't have to all be long term deals. If they do that and fill out the rotation with Correia, Gibson and Deduno, they've got a chance of improvement.

If everyone is healthy, and Meyer (or someone else) is so good at AAA that he deserves to be called up....then you can trade someone or demote someone or put someone in the bullpen. Odds are that someone will struggle or someone will get hurt and it will sort itself out...not everything will break right. But if everything does go right and this team somehow has 6 starting pitchers who all SO GOOD that they belong in the rotation.....THAT is Victory.

Edited by Craig in MN, 08 November 2013 - 09:39 AM.


#6 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:16 AM

I missed the funny part where you said we "know" Meyer and May will be ready to be starters in 2015.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#7 JB_Iowa

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 10:13 AM

"You can't have too much pitching."

-Terry Ryan, 2012


Well, Willihammer, I'd probably modify the Ryan statement by saying you can never have too much GOOD pitching but I agree with the sentiment.

Stockpiling pitching is a good idea because 1) you can seldom count on pitchers to stay healthy; 2) it seems like Twins pitchers are more likely to underwhelm than overwhelm by their performance; and 3) if, miracle of miracles, you actually have a surfeit of good pitching, there are ALWAYS other teams who want some of it and you have a valuable trade chip.

I'd love nothing more than for the Twins to "overcommit" on good pitchers.

#8 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 10:28 AM

Hughes
Meyer
Gibson
Deduno
Pelf

That is enough to get you to the playoffs with a decent offense and maybe win in the playoffs with a great offense


The Eastern League playoffs? Have you looked at the rotations of the playoff teams from this past year? Hey, I have high hopes for Meyer and still think Gibson can be decent, but not one of those guys would crack the playoff roation for the four teams in the LCS this past year.

#9 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 05:05 PM

I think it is important for Meyer to be up early while his arm is fresh. He needs to learn to adjust to major leaguers with his best stuff.

The Twins waited far too long on Gibson. We saw him through high pitch count games in AAA. I hope we didn't see him at his best.

#10 Thrylos

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 05:26 PM

Our SP:
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Gibson
Worley

In the minors: Diamond, Hendricks, and Albers


If that's the rotation, Ryan needs to get fired.

How many games will the Twins win with this rotation? Given that you are replacing Hughes for Pelfrey and Gibson for Diamond practically, for a team that lost 96...
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#11 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 06:14 PM

Absolutely not sold on Hughes. I know his BABIP was high last year, but I don't feel he is a top of the rotation guy.

The Twins need to step up and get someone whose upside is far greater than that of Hughes. That's my opinion.

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#12 Oxtung

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:03 PM

I agree for the most part. I think they will bring in Hughes and bring back Pelf. Meyer will be up with the team out of ST or at the break at the latest.

Hughes
Meyer
Gibson
Deduno
Pelf

That is enough to get you to the playoffs with a decent offense and maybe win in the playoffs with a great offense (something we could easily have in 1-2 years). What I like most about that group is that they all could go out and reasonably throw a gem against many teams. Some of the guys we were trotting out the last 2-3 years we were hoping they could just be OK and take it as a good day. Just as important, our first backups in AAAA are now Worley and Diamond, two guys who have shown they can succeed at the MLB level and have the potential to bounce back after a post injury year. Whether May develops or not, at least 1 of the A-level kids will turn into a very solid starter 2-4 years down the line as well. Sign one "B-B+" free agent SP like Hughes and another "C-C+" free agent SP like Pelf and I will consider it a winning offseason.


I agree with the previous poster that this rotation won't get to the playoffs without an elite offense. For the twins to get to the playoffs in the next few seasons they need both Meyer and Gibson to turn into 1 and 3 type pitchers and they need to sign a top of the rotation pitcher as well.

#13 mudcat14

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:40 PM

I too am most intrigued by Hughes, and consider him a realistic get. No doubt there will be risk involved in giving him a multi-year pact, but his stuff and age make it a high reward proposition as well. I'm not opposed to signing Pelfry to a reasonable one year deal. I think he's likely to improve on last season with another year between him and the surgery. I doubt his ceiling is very high though.

#14 EephusKnuckler

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:08 PM

I agree with the OP, Hughes seems like the "best" Twins fans can hope for. Given their penchant for reclamation projects lately, it would not surprise me to see them bring in Johan, Haren, or Johnson. According to a new article on startrib, apparently the Twins have even contacted Johan's people and checked into the medical stuff, for whatever that's worth. Not a far-fetched idea. Could be a savvy move for the team, on the field and in the PR realm.

I wonder if we see Deduno get moved to the pen at some point next season. He's fun to watch and has some good stuff but his style clashes with how the team traditionally likes their starters. I don't know what to think about Worley...we'll see him as a starter again at some point but I don't have high hopes. It's hilarious that he was the opening day starter this year.

Edited by EephusKnuckler, 08 November 2013 - 09:13 PM.


#15 Rosterman

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 10:21 PM

Worley and Diamond need to make the team, out of options, I believe. Of course, they both could replace Duensing and Swarzak if need be. Hendriks has another option year left. It would be nice if the Twins could get something for their backend starters. See Gibson starting the year at Rochester because he can. Deduno is an iffy. Correia could be tradebait, believe it or not.
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#16 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 11:48 PM

I'd pencil in Alex Meyer as one of the five starters to start the season.

Last Arizona Fall League start...
Video: GLEN@SCOT: Meyer hurls 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball | MLB.com

#17 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 11:51 PM

Video: GLEN@SCOT: Meyer hurls 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball | MLB.com

Alex Meyer breaks camp as a starter...

He's got as good of stuff as any pitcher on the current MLB roster.

#18 Reider

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 01:30 PM

I agree that we will likely be underwhelmed by FA SP signings this off season as that has been the trend over the last couple of years. TR has been penny pinching and kicking the can down the road.

What I disagree with you on, however, is the idea of penciling in 2 players (Gibson and Worely) for next years rotation who proved last year that they were not good enough (or not "ready," if that makes people feel better).

My philosophy is nobody gets penciled in. And if people do get penciled in, they will be Deduno and Correia.. Guys who proved last year that they at least belong. If Guys like Diamond/Gibson/Meyer/May/Worely etc.. want to pitch in the MLB, they're going to have to earn a spot.

To go along with that, Terry Ryan needs to go out and sign at least two quality FA's and maybe penny pinch on one guy (e.g. Pelfrey) to be the 5th starter. Signing Hughes and calling it a day, or re-signing Pelfrey and calling it a day is just not going to cut it.

There are 5 spots. You fill those 5 spots with 5 MLB caliber pitchers. If AAA guys want a spot, they will have to beat one of those 5 guys out or take a spot in the bullpen until they can push one of those 5 starters out. Do you think it's going to hurt my feelings if Gibson pitches better than Pelfrey in spring training to earn a spot in the rotation and Pelfrey is forced to move to the bullpen until there is an injury?

This "saving spots" way of thinking is ridiculous. We've seen this horror show one too many times already.

Edited by Reider, 10 November 2013 - 01:36 PM.


#19 MichiganTwins

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 03:20 PM

I agree that we will likely be underwhelmed by FA SP signings this off season as that has been the trend over the last couple of years. TR has been penny pinching and kicking the can down the road.

What I disagree with you on, however, is the idea of penciling in 2 players (Gibson and Worely) for next years rotation who proved last year that they were not good enough (or not "ready," if that makes people feel better).

My philosophy is nobody gets penciled in. And if people do get penciled in, they will be Deduno and Correia.. Guys who proved last year that they at least belong. If Guys like Diamond/Gibson/Meyer/May/Worely etc.. want to pitch in the MLB, they're going to have to earn a spot.

To go along with that, Terry Ryan needs to go out and sign at least two quality FA's and maybe penny pinch on one guy (e.g. Pelfrey) to be the 5th starter. Signing Hughes and calling it a day, or re-signing Pelfrey and calling it a day is just not going to cut it.

There are 5 spots. You fill those 5 spots with 5 MLB caliber pitchers. If AAA guys want a spot, they will have to beat one of those 5 guys out or take a spot in the bullpen until they can push one of those 5 starters out. Do you think it's going to hurt my feelings if Gibson pitches better than Pelfrey in spring training to earn a spot in the rotation and Pelfrey is forced to move to the bullpen until there is an injury?

This "saving spots" way of thinking is ridiculous. We've seen this horror show one too many times already.


There is nothing wrong with saving spots, the problem is who the spots are saved for. I think the Tigers have saved spots for their rotation and they will good again. With that being said, the Twins can't save too many spots because of how bad they were last year. However, Gibson deserves a spot because he is going to be better and we need to see if we can actually count on him in the future. I think the Twins are in a weird spot because of pitchers like Worley and Gibson. We think they could be solid but we just have no idea at this moment.

#20 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 05:13 PM

There is nothing wrong with saving spots, the problem is who the spots are saved for. I think the Tigers have saved spots for their rotation and they will good again. With that being said, the Twins can't save too many spots because of how bad they were last year. However, Gibson deserves a spot because he is going to be better and we need to see if we can actually count on him in the future. I think the Twins are in a weird spot because of pitchers like Worley and Gibson. We think they could be solid but we just have no idea at this moment.


Completely agree on Gibson. He was projected at one time as a top 10-15 talent in the draft, he pitched 51 underwhelming innings his first year back after Tommy John and now people are ready to give up on him? Looking ahead to the future, we have Gibson and Meyer. Two down, three to go.