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Realistic SP for Twins (let's be real)

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#1 jcphitman

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:10 AM

We won't sign more than two and even that might be a stretch. We all know we'll be underwhelmed this year. I hope the key for the Twins is they sign pitchers that help.

We already know three spots are spoken for next year:
Correia
Deduno (I read somewhere that they said he has a spot)
Gibson

They are locks IMO. The Twins will probably let Worley/Diamond/Hendricks fight it out for a spot too.

That leaves truly one or two spots max. The key is who they sign.

They won't get the stud from Japan (they'll "bid" and it'll be low). They won't get Garza. They won't get E. Santanta or Nolasco (I'm sure that I have his name wrong) due to the crazy money both want.

IMO, the best they can do and hope for is Phil Hughes. They should be willing to overpay and break the bank for him. He's young enough, has hope, and would come to our spacious pitchers park.

There are a lot of choices out there, but Hughes seems to be the best with what we need for the future.

If we do sign another one beyond or Hughes or another pitcher, it might be J. Santana just for the memories. I doubt we will though. In the end, I think it'll be Hughes.

Our SP:
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Gibson
Worley

In the minors: Diamond, Hendricks, and Albers

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.

#2 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:34 AM

I agree with your premises and your conclusion. I think they believe in those three, and will have the others fight it out for the last spot, leaving 1 real open spot. I also agree they will think Meyer is nearly ready. I think your logic is spot on.
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#3 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:03 AM

We won't sign more than two and even that might be a stretch. We all know we'll be underwhelmed this year. I hope the key for the Twins is they sign pitchers that help.

We already know three spots are spoken for next year:
Correia
Deduno (I read somewhere that they said he has a spot)
Gibson

They are locks IMO. The Twins will probably let Worley/Diamond/Hendricks fight it out for a spot too.

That leaves truly one or two spots max. The key is who they sign.

They won't get the stud from Japan (they'll "bid" and it'll be low). They won't get Garza. They won't get E. Santanta or Nolasco (I'm sure that I have his name wrong) due to the crazy money both want.

IMO, the best they can do and hope for is Phil Hughes. They should be willing to overpay and break the bank for him. He's young enough, has hope, and would come to our spacious pitchers park.

There are a lot of choices out there, but Hughes seems to be the best with what we need for the future.

If we do sign another one beyond or Hughes or another pitcher, it might be J. Santana just for the memories. I doubt we will though. In the end, I think it'll be Hughes.

Our SP:
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Gibson
Worley

In the minors: Diamond, Hendricks, and Albers

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.


I agree for the most part. I think they will bring in Hughes and bring back Pelf. Meyer will be up with the team out of ST or at the break at the latest.

Hughes
Meyer
Gibson
Deduno
Pelf

That is enough to get you to the playoffs with a decent offense and maybe win in the playoffs with a great offense (something we could easily have in 1-2 years). What I like most about that group is that they all could go out and reasonably throw a gem against many teams. Some of the guys we were trotting out the last 2-3 years we were hoping they could just be OK and take it as a good day. Just as important, our first backups in AAAA are now Worley and Diamond, two guys who have shown they can succeed at the MLB level and have the potential to bounce back after a post injury year. Whether May develops or not, at least 1 of the A-level kids will turn into a very solid starter 2-4 years down the line as well. Sign one "B-B+" free agent SP like Hughes and another "C-C+" free agent SP like Pelf and I will consider it a winning offseason.

#4 Willihammer

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:13 AM

Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015


"You can't have too much pitching."

-Terry Ryan, 2012

#5 Craig in MN

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:16 AM

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.


That is NOT a victory. That is taking the team with BY FAR the worst rotation in baseball, and replace one starter (Pelfrey) with a 5.19 ERA, with another starter (Hughes) with a 5.19 ERA. That isn't a victory...that is exactly the same as this year. Hughes might better than Pelfrey next year, but that's far from guaranteed. Hoping for players to be better next year is wonderful, but every team is doing that....our chances of it being true are no better than anyone else's.

There are five spots in a rotation, and usually there are injuries where you'll need the equivalent of 6 or more. This is a team that CAN bring in 2 legitimate pitchers. They don't have to all be long term deals. If they do that and fill out the rotation with Correia, Gibson and Deduno, they've got a chance of improvement.

If everyone is healthy, and Meyer (or someone else) is so good at AAA that he deserves to be called up....then you can trade someone or demote someone or put someone in the bullpen. Odds are that someone will struggle or someone will get hurt and it will sort itself out...not everything will break right. But if everything does go right and this team somehow has 6 starting pitchers who all SO GOOD that they belong in the rotation.....THAT is Victory.

Edited by Craig in MN, 08 November 2013 - 09:39 AM.


#6 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:16 AM

I missed the funny part where you said we "know" Meyer and May will be ready to be starters in 2015.
Lighten up Francis....

#7 JB_Iowa

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 10:13 AM

"You can't have too much pitching."

-Terry Ryan, 2012


Well, Willihammer, I'd probably modify the Ryan statement by saying you can never have too much GOOD pitching but I agree with the sentiment.

Stockpiling pitching is a good idea because 1) you can seldom count on pitchers to stay healthy; 2) it seems like Twins pitchers are more likely to underwhelm than overwhelm by their performance; and 3) if, miracle of miracles, you actually have a surfeit of good pitching, there are ALWAYS other teams who want some of it and you have a valuable trade chip.

I'd love nothing more than for the Twins to "overcommit" on good pitchers.

#8 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 10:28 AM

Hughes
Meyer
Gibson
Deduno
Pelf

That is enough to get you to the playoffs with a decent offense and maybe win in the playoffs with a great offense


The Eastern League playoffs? Have you looked at the rotations of the playoff teams from this past year? Hey, I have high hopes for Meyer and still think Gibson can be decent, but not one of those guys would crack the playoff roation for the four teams in the LCS this past year.

#9 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 05:05 PM

I think it is important for Meyer to be up early while his arm is fresh. He needs to learn to adjust to major leaguers with his best stuff.

The Twins waited far too long on Gibson. We saw him through high pitch count games in AAA. I hope we didn't see him at his best.

#10 Thrylos

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 05:26 PM

Our SP:
Hughes
Correia
Deduno
Gibson
Worley

In the minors: Diamond, Hendricks, and Albers


If that's the rotation, Ryan needs to get fired.

How many games will the Twins win with this rotation? Given that you are replacing Hughes for Pelfrey and Gibson for Diamond practically, for a team that lost 96...
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#11 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 06:14 PM

Absolutely not sold on Hughes. I know his BABIP was high last year, but I don't feel he is a top of the rotation guy.

The Twins need to step up and get someone whose upside is far greater than that of Hughes. That's my opinion.

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#12 Oxtung

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:03 PM

I agree for the most part. I think they will bring in Hughes and bring back Pelf. Meyer will be up with the team out of ST or at the break at the latest.

Hughes
Meyer
Gibson
Deduno
Pelf

That is enough to get you to the playoffs with a decent offense and maybe win in the playoffs with a great offense (something we could easily have in 1-2 years). What I like most about that group is that they all could go out and reasonably throw a gem against many teams. Some of the guys we were trotting out the last 2-3 years we were hoping they could just be OK and take it as a good day. Just as important, our first backups in AAAA are now Worley and Diamond, two guys who have shown they can succeed at the MLB level and have the potential to bounce back after a post injury year. Whether May develops or not, at least 1 of the A-level kids will turn into a very solid starter 2-4 years down the line as well. Sign one "B-B+" free agent SP like Hughes and another "C-C+" free agent SP like Pelf and I will consider it a winning offseason.


I agree with the previous poster that this rotation won't get to the playoffs without an elite offense. For the twins to get to the playoffs in the next few seasons they need both Meyer and Gibson to turn into 1 and 3 type pitchers and they need to sign a top of the rotation pitcher as well.

#13 mudcat14

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 08:40 PM

I too am most intrigued by Hughes, and consider him a realistic get. No doubt there will be risk involved in giving him a multi-year pact, but his stuff and age make it a high reward proposition as well. I'm not opposed to signing Pelfry to a reasonable one year deal. I think he's likely to improve on last season with another year between him and the surgery. I doubt his ceiling is very high though.

#14 EephusKnuckler

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 09:08 PM

I agree with the OP, Hughes seems like the "best" Twins fans can hope for. Given their penchant for reclamation projects lately, it would not surprise me to see them bring in Johan, Haren, or Johnson. According to a new article on startrib, apparently the Twins have even contacted Johan's people and checked into the medical stuff, for whatever that's worth. Not a far-fetched idea. Could be a savvy move for the team, on the field and in the PR realm.

I wonder if we see Deduno get moved to the pen at some point next season. He's fun to watch and has some good stuff but his style clashes with how the team traditionally likes their starters. I don't know what to think about Worley...we'll see him as a starter again at some point but I don't have high hopes. It's hilarious that he was the opening day starter this year.

Edited by EephusKnuckler, 08 November 2013 - 09:13 PM.


#15 Rosterman

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 10:21 PM

Worley and Diamond need to make the team, out of options, I believe. Of course, they both could replace Duensing and Swarzak if need be. Hendriks has another option year left. It would be nice if the Twins could get something for their backend starters. See Gibson starting the year at Rochester because he can. Deduno is an iffy. Correia could be tradebait, believe it or not.
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#16 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 11:48 PM

I'd pencil in Alex Meyer as one of the five starters to start the season.

Last Arizona Fall League start...
Video: GLEN@SCOT: Meyer hurls 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball | MLB.com

#17 twinsfan34

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Posted 08 November 2013 - 11:51 PM

Video: GLEN@SCOT: Meyer hurls 5 1/3 innings of one-hit ball | MLB.com

Alex Meyer breaks camp as a starter...

He's got as good of stuff as any pitcher on the current MLB roster.

#18 Reider

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 01:30 PM

I agree that we will likely be underwhelmed by FA SP signings this off season as that has been the trend over the last couple of years. TR has been penny pinching and kicking the can down the road.

What I disagree with you on, however, is the idea of penciling in 2 players (Gibson and Worely) for next years rotation who proved last year that they were not good enough (or not "ready," if that makes people feel better).

My philosophy is nobody gets penciled in. And if people do get penciled in, they will be Deduno and Correia.. Guys who proved last year that they at least belong. If Guys like Diamond/Gibson/Meyer/May/Worely etc.. want to pitch in the MLB, they're going to have to earn a spot.

To go along with that, Terry Ryan needs to go out and sign at least two quality FA's and maybe penny pinch on one guy (e.g. Pelfrey) to be the 5th starter. Signing Hughes and calling it a day, or re-signing Pelfrey and calling it a day is just not going to cut it.

There are 5 spots. You fill those 5 spots with 5 MLB caliber pitchers. If AAA guys want a spot, they will have to beat one of those 5 guys out or take a spot in the bullpen until they can push one of those 5 starters out. Do you think it's going to hurt my feelings if Gibson pitches better than Pelfrey in spring training to earn a spot in the rotation and Pelfrey is forced to move to the bullpen until there is an injury?

This "saving spots" way of thinking is ridiculous. We've seen this horror show one too many times already.

Edited by Reider, 10 November 2013 - 01:36 PM.


#19 MichiganTwins

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 03:20 PM

I agree that we will likely be underwhelmed by FA SP signings this off season as that has been the trend over the last couple of years. TR has been penny pinching and kicking the can down the road.

What I disagree with you on, however, is the idea of penciling in 2 players (Gibson and Worely) for next years rotation who proved last year that they were not good enough (or not "ready," if that makes people feel better).

My philosophy is nobody gets penciled in. And if people do get penciled in, they will be Deduno and Correia.. Guys who proved last year that they at least belong. If Guys like Diamond/Gibson/Meyer/May/Worely etc.. want to pitch in the MLB, they're going to have to earn a spot.

To go along with that, Terry Ryan needs to go out and sign at least two quality FA's and maybe penny pinch on one guy (e.g. Pelfrey) to be the 5th starter. Signing Hughes and calling it a day, or re-signing Pelfrey and calling it a day is just not going to cut it.

There are 5 spots. You fill those 5 spots with 5 MLB caliber pitchers. If AAA guys want a spot, they will have to beat one of those 5 guys out or take a spot in the bullpen until they can push one of those 5 starters out. Do you think it's going to hurt my feelings if Gibson pitches better than Pelfrey in spring training to earn a spot in the rotation and Pelfrey is forced to move to the bullpen until there is an injury?

This "saving spots" way of thinking is ridiculous. We've seen this horror show one too many times already.


There is nothing wrong with saving spots, the problem is who the spots are saved for. I think the Tigers have saved spots for their rotation and they will good again. With that being said, the Twins can't save too many spots because of how bad they were last year. However, Gibson deserves a spot because he is going to be better and we need to see if we can actually count on him in the future. I think the Twins are in a weird spot because of pitchers like Worley and Gibson. We think they could be solid but we just have no idea at this moment.

#20 howieramone1406390264

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 05:13 PM

There is nothing wrong with saving spots, the problem is who the spots are saved for. I think the Tigers have saved spots for their rotation and they will good again. With that being said, the Twins can't save too many spots because of how bad they were last year. However, Gibson deserves a spot because he is going to be better and we need to see if we can actually count on him in the future. I think the Twins are in a weird spot because of pitchers like Worley and Gibson. We think they could be solid but we just have no idea at this moment.


Completely agree on Gibson. He was projected at one time as a top 10-15 talent in the draft, he pitched 51 underwhelming innings his first year back after Tommy John and now people are ready to give up on him? Looking ahead to the future, we have Gibson and Meyer. Two down, three to go.

#21 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 06:15 PM

1A & 1B Nolasco or Feldman - Be very agressive on a 3 yr deal or stretch to 4 if absolutely necessary. Then sign Kazmir to a 2 year deal. Maybe even 3 if our scouts are confident he is back. Then, sign Johnson to a one year deal at 7M + all boat load of incentives that would allow him to make another 8-10M if he pitched like he has in the past. Johan to a minor leauge deal. If they all pan out and Meyer is knocking at the door we can find a solution to that enviable problem.

This should still leave enough money for Corey Hart.

Might help the deal to have a clause in Johnson's contract that he recieves additional salary if he is traded. That would net a nice prospect if he bounced back.

Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 10 November 2013 - 06:20 PM.


#22 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 06:45 PM

This may sound negative, but it is not meant to be. It is only realistic.

If I were Phil Hughes, why would I want to be a Minnesota Twin?

I am a California dude, been playing on the east coast with the most storied franchise in MLB history and have gotten use to winning or at least being in the hunt every year for a playoff spot. I am sure Hughes and his reps realize that he is not a good fit for the band box that is the New Yankees Stadium. I would probably want to see if the SF Giants were a match, after that, the Dodgers, Angels... maybe even the Cardinals - for these teams, I might sign a short term, team friendly deal if I cannot get the desired deal I am looking for (Cardinals = better chance of winning and all of the mentioned teams play in a pitcher friendly environment).

If I were to consider the Twins, I would have to get over payed, with at least a 3 year deal.

Why would I want to play for a team that is in a Big City, in the middle of nowhere, that has lost more the 90 games annually the last 3 years, a place I could never conceivably put my roots down in year round, because the winters are fricking awful. I want to be able to chill on the beach, take in the rays, and ride a wave if I want to.

On paper Phil Hughes appears to be a nice fit, but is he?

My guess is that he signs with the SF Giants.

P.S.: I love Minnesota, but living here is what I know. The winter sucks and spring and fall are a crap shoot, summer is excellent. If I were a warm weather raised baseball player, this would factor into my decision immensely.

There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. Some kind of high powered mutant never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.


#23 AussieTwin

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 07:32 PM

Of the free agents available I'd prefer to go after Jimenez because he at least will gives us the opportunity to have a true ace on staff if he hits form. If I wanted a solid starting pitcher who's gonna eat innings and keep us in games I'd go Nolasco. If I wanted to take a flyer on potential then it's definitely Josh Johnson. If healthy he can be a natural leader and ace of the staff and he's been proven on an average team before. I'd even consider signing him up on top of one of Jimenez and Nolasco.
I'd also like for the Twins to take a look at trading for a good pitcher who had a down year. Some guys I'd hope we ask about are Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Romero, Chad Billingsley, Yovani Gallardo, Dan Hudson and Trevor Cahill all of who I think the Twins could shake a deal out for without giving up the farm

#24 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 07:53 PM

[QUOTE=Bark's Lounge;177124]This may sound negative, but it is not meant to be. It is only realistic.

If I were Phil Hughes, why would I want to be a Minnesota Twin? [QUOTE]

If his goal is to sign a 1-year contract where he can build value, TF would be far better than NY and the AL central is quite a bit easier to pitch against. Plus, he would have to really stink it up to get dropped out of this rotation. It is a low pressure environment to build value.

If Hughes wants a 3-4 year deal, he is not an impact player with a contender. He is Correia with upside. That is not likely to get him a big payday with a contender. Target field is a good fit so the Twins, as desperate as they are might being willing to pay the most. And, if it is 4 years, 2014 should be the only bad year.

I am not sure why he gets so much love here. He would be a decent addition and might be better with in TF pitching alot of games in the AL central. He is juust entering his prime so there is a decent chance he might even improve. And, we won't have to pay him for years when his performance is likely declining. However, I would rather have Nolasco, Feldman or Kazmir. Pelfrey might even be better. Burnett is 37 but he was much better than Hughes last year.

#25 Bark's Lounge

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 09:14 PM

If his goal is to sign a 1-year contract where he can build value, TF would be far better than NY and the AL central is quite a bit easier to pitch against. Plus, he would have to really stink it up to get dropped out of this rotation. It is a low pressure environment to build value.

If Hughes wants a 3-4 year deal, he is not an impact player with a contender. He is Correia with upside. That is not likely to get him a big payday with a contender. Target field is a good fit so the Twins, as desperate as they are might being willing to pay the most. And, if it is 4 years, 2014 should be the only bad year.

I am not sure why he gets so much love here. He would be a decent addition and might be better with in TF pitching alot of games in the AL central. He is juust entering his prime so there is a decent chance he might even improve. And, we won't have to pay him for years when his performance is likely declining. However, I would rather have Nolasco, Feldman or Kazmir. Pelfrey might even be better. Burnett is 37 but he was much better than Hughes last year.


My post was never meant to prop Hughes up. Sure, he may be a good acquisition at the right price and most Twins fans would be happy with him signing with us. Hughes will probably get offers from other clubs that have a better chance to contend and are more desirable destinations for him. I Do NOT think that Phil Hughes will sign with the Twins when there are so many open rotation spots on the west coast with teams that are probably more willing to spend and have a better chance to contend.

If my post was unclear... my apologies.

It is unlikely Phil Hughes is a MN Twin next year.

Plus: All of the west coast teams have favorable ball parks for pitchers.

Edited by Bark's Lounge, 10 November 2013 - 09:17 PM.

There he goes. One of God's own prototypes. Some kind of high powered mutant never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die.


#26 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 10:10 PM

My post was never meant to prop Hughes up. Sure, he may be a good acquisition at the right price and most Twins fans would be happy with him signing with us. Hughes will probably get offers from other clubs that have a better chance to contend and are more desirable destinations for him. I Do NOT think that Phil Hughes will sign with the Twins when there are so many open rotation spots on the west coast with teams that are probably more willing to spend and have a better chance to contend.

If my post was unclear... my apologies.

It is unlikely Phil Hughes is a MN Twin next year.

Plus: All of the west coast teams have favorable ball parks for pitchers.


I did not necessarily think you were proping up Hughes. If he wants a 1 year deal to build value, who cares? I would rather take a stab at Johnson or sign Burnett or Arroyo for 2 years. If it is 3-4 years, he is going to follow the money. If he signs a 3-year deal he will be young enough for one more shot at a big contract. However, as we know with SPs, they often go down to injury never to regain their past form. He takes the money if he decides to go for a 3-4 year deal and the Twins are going to be aggressive on this type of deal. The owner has given the OK and it simply makes sense from a business perspective. They are going to erode the fan base if they don't get quite a bit better.

#27 clutterheart

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 10:55 PM

Yuck.
Albers, Correia & Deduno are 4th - 5th starters on most other teams
Diamond is a spot starter/bulpen arm on a decent team, who is only good if he is getting GB.
Vanimal is in the bullpen on most other teams.

Over their career, these guys have shown to be sub-par pitchers, with a proven record of being bad. Any replacement level pitcher is capable of a putting together a few decent starts.

[COLOR=#333333]In my opinion, Worley is the only guy who might have a "bounce back" year and become more than 4th or 5th starter.
[/COLOR]
None of those guys should hold back anyone or stop Ryan from getting a good FA pitcher. Hughes would be an OK start, but if he is the best we get, its going to be another long year at target field.

#28 EephusKnuckler

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Posted 10 November 2013 - 11:39 PM

I haven't seen Paul Maholm mentioned in any of these threads talking about the starting rotation. He seems like the kind of guy he Twins would go after. Soft-tossing lefty groundball (PTC!) guy. Probably won't ask for a ton of money either. He's nothing special but IIRC, he was good for a stretch last year. Would be another Correia-type presence in the rotation: lackluster but a step-up from a lot of the garbage we've put on the mound in recent years.

It's not very realistic to think the team will sign guys who want big deals like E. Santana, Nolasco, or Jiminez. The Twins don't do that. They'll go out and sign one or two mediocre starters for little $$$ and maybe a bigger name on a 1 year deal.

#29 Steve Penz

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 08:34 AM

If they nail Hughes, we should consider it a victory and a good offseason. Remember, we aren't going to want to commit to that many pitchers when we know Meyer and May are going to be ready in 2015 most likely and with how conservative the team is.


The idea that this may happen is not unrealistic given the history. At the same time, to call that a "victory" is to be content with losing 90+ games...again. This is not ok and the fan base cannot be ok with it. Better than recent history does not equal good and although it may set me up for let down, I am hoping for more. Of all the write ups so far I felt that Thrylos nailed it the best. Different from his ideas I would be content with one multi-year and two single-year deals; like Kazmir for a 2-3yr deal and Baker/Johnson for one each. If they only sign one guy then the fans need to go nuts.

#30 TheLeviathan

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Posted 11 November 2013 - 10:07 AM

Completely agree on Gibson. He was projected at one time as a top 10-15 talent in the draft, he pitched 51 underwhelming innings his first year back after Tommy John and now people are ready to give up on him? Looking ahead to the future, we have Gibson and Meyer. Two down, three to go.


Can they at least have some success in the major leagues before we write their name in stone? Seems just a tad more prudent.