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Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 6-10

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:56 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...-Prospects-6-10

#2 lightfoot789

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:04 AM

Good stuff Seth.

I think your list (50 thru 6) is hard to argue with. I love the selection of Adam Brett Walker as the Topps Midwest League "Player of the Year". Although Buxton surely deserved Top Prospect of the Year in the MWL - It was my opinion that Walker deserved the MVP award given by the league itself. He played nearly twice as many games (129 to 68) as Buxton in the MWL league and helped Cedar Rapids to a better second half record than their first half record. He also helped CR to the best record in all of Minor League baseball. He just turned 22 and has a bright future ahead of him.

I also like the fact that so many of my Cedar Rapids kids are represented on your list. Which of the Cedar Rapids players from throughout the year do you think will start together in Fort Myers next spring? Which of them also have a legitimate chance to move up to AA sometime next year?

#3 lightfoot789

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:10 AM

Adam Brett Walker wins Topps/MWL Player of the Year | Cedar Rapids Kernels News
Adam Brett Walker - Topps Midwest League Player of the Year

#4 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:17 AM

Lightfoot - I 100% agree that Walker should have been named the League's MVP rather than Buxton for the reasons you mentioned. Buxton's the best prospect, but the Kernels were actually better in the 2nd half, and Walker led the league in HR and RBI and was the Most Valuable Player on the best team in the league.

As for the guys who played in CR moving from FM to NB next year, that's always a possibility. It's normal for prospects to spend the full season in the Midwest League. It's common for guys who have good/big first halves in Ft. Myers to move up to New Britain after the All Star break. That said, I think guys like Harrison, Goodrum, Kepler, Berrios are likely to be one year at a time types.

#5 lightfoot789

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 02:18 AM


AdamBrettWalkerKernelsHighlights
youtube
The first short clip is an advertisement for the Kernels (be patient) and then there are 29 short highlight clips (15 - 30 seconds each) of Adam Brett Walker at Cedar Rapids home games only. It played on my laptop, but didn't play on my ipad for some reason. I think this series of clips would give everyone a real idea of what Walker brings to the organization in terms of potential.

#6 goulik

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 06:39 AM

What I love about these 5 names is their ages. Only Walker is over 20 and the 5 together average under 20.

#7 SarasotaBill

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 07:23 AM

I would put the pitchers higher than Polanco or Kepler.
If I could only protect seven players for a trade, I would give up Polanco or Kepler before Berrios or Thorpe. Starting pitching is so scarce and valuable.
In my opinion, the best way to rank pitchers and position players is based on trade value or in other words, who I would protect more.
As always, Seth - you do a great job with your lists.

#8 beckmt

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 07:29 AM

Great job and interesting. On trades if you give up pitching it is from single A and under. I Would not give up any pitching as the Twins need all they can get.

#9 roger

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 08:31 AM

OK Seth, it is time for you to sit in for Mr. Ryan for a few days. Even though they were only at low A last year, Polanco and Kepler are both eligible for the Rule 5 draft because they were signed as 16 year olds (something I believe the league needs to fix). Do you add them to the 40-man roster over the next few weeks? And if you don't, do you expect they will be taken in the draft?

#10 jay

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 08:33 AM

It looks like this thread is in the 'Article Archive' as opposed to 'Minor League Talk' like the others?

This group leaves us with Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, and Rosario -- a pretty consensus (and impressive) top 5, I would imagine. I think they'll be in that order with maybe the pitchers flipped. Excited to read the write-ups.

#11 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 08:51 AM

What I love about these 5 names is their ages. Only Walker is over 20 and the 5 together average under 20.


I don't know if that's a good thing or not. I think it speaks volumes to the types of players that the Twins are signing that in a strong system, young players they've signed in recent years are very exciting. Of course, youth means longer trek to the big leagues and more opportunity for falling back. But, I like all four of these guys, for sure!

#12 Steve Penz

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 08:53 AM

Thanks for all the work on this, Seth. I enjoy reading the info. What is your best guess on Kepler's stat line in 2014? Do you care to make a prediction? I may be getting caught up on stats vs his potential because his last 6 months are a little concerning. After coming back from injury he did not seem to hit that well and in AZ he is doing ok. I understand that its about potential at his age and the AZFL is a league that is full of more advanced players. Additionally, nobody who is in the know (I am not one of those people) seems to be concerned. That said, do you feel he is due for a full season of more impressive performance?

#13 Kwak

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:11 AM

"That said, I think guys like Harrison, Goodrum, Kepler, Berrios are likely to be one year at a time types."

That's a red flag. The elite guys will have either skipped a level or have been doubly promoted at least once as they progress. It seems to me that those types don't make a "Top Ten List" until AAA or in a weak organization.

#14 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:25 AM

I would put the pitchers higher than Polanco or Kepler.
If I could only protect seven players for a trade, I would give up Polanco or Kepler before Berrios or Thorpe. Starting pitching is so scarce and valuable.
In my opinion, the best way to rank pitchers and position players is based on trade value or in other words, who I would protect more.
As always, Seth - you do a great job with your lists.


Thanks Bill, I hope you'll submit/post a top 20 prospect list on Friday! I always enjoy other opinions. I definitely think that the Twins need all the pitching they can get. I like the idea of considering which you would trade over the others. THere's actually an interesting tool that can be used to do that method. I try to look at which one I believe, at any given time, will have a bigger impact on the game.

#15 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:28 AM

OK Seth, it is time for you to sit in for Mr. Ryan for a few days. Even though they were only at low A last year, Polanco and Kepler are both eligible for the Rule 5 draft because they were signed as 16 year olds (something I believe the league needs to fix). Do you add them to the 40-man roster over the next few weeks? And if you don't, do you expect they will be taken in the draft?


I absolutely add both of them. Pretty easy choice, in my opinion. With their upside, a team would be willing to stash them on their roster. I have no doubt.

#16 TRex

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:30 AM

"That said, I think guys like Harrison, Goodrum, Kepler, Berrios are likely to be one year at a time types."

That's a red flag. The elite guys will have either skipped a level or have been doubly promoted at least once as they progress. It seems to me that those types don't make a "Top Ten List" until AAA or in a weak organization.


... so you think that all Top-10 guys should fall in the Elite category? In my mind, not even all of MiLB's Top-100 are Elite prospects. Someone who exemplifies my thinking is Kyle Gibson, who was very deserving of his spot but not what I would ever call 'Elite'.

#17 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:43 AM

Thanks for all the work on this, Seth. I enjoy reading the info. What is your best guess on Kepler's stat line in 2014? Do you care to make a prediction? I may be getting caught up on stats vs his potential because his last 6 months are a little concerning. After coming back from injury he did not seem to hit that well and in AZ he is doing ok. I understand that its about potential at his age and the AZFL is a league that is full of more advanced players. Additionally, nobody who is in the know (I am not one of those people) seems to be concerned. That said, do you feel he is due for a full season of more impressive performance?


The fact that he missed the first half of the season, I still think he will start at Ft. Myers, but I am not 100% certain. His struggles against left-handed pitchers means he won't hit for real high average, and the Florida State League means there won't likely be a ton of power. But, he's a big, strong kid with good speed, a very good athlete. He's still raw. So, if you want numbers in the FSL, I'll try. How about: .260/.345/.455 (.800).

#18 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:49 AM

"That said, I think guys like Harrison, Goodrum, Kepler, Berrios are likely to be one year at a time types."

That's a red flag. The elite guys will have either skipped a level or have been doubly promoted at least once as they progress. It seems to me that those types don't make a "Top Ten List" until AAA or in a weak organization.


I get your point, but I don't see it as a negative at all. Each of them are young and need the time to develop. Those four are likely not Top 100 guys, though Kepler and Berrios are probably top 150 or so. So, I woudln't classify them as elite. I would classify them as future solid regulars.

#19 mnfanforlife

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 09:57 AM

Walker at #10 !! Love it. This guy is underrated by MLB.com

#20 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 10:28 AM

You are a lot higher on Polanco then I am. Guess I want to see that for one more year. I'm not sure another team would be able to stash Polanco or Kepler on their rosters for an entire season. I wonder if TR will hold off on 40 man decisions for each of them for 1 more year. It definitely would help the org if they did.

That said, anyone signed at 16 should be exempt from rule 5 for at least 5 years if not 6.

#21 Seth Stohs

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 10:45 AM

You are a lot higher on Polanco then I am. Guess I want to see that for one more year. I'm not sure another team would be able to stash Polanco or Kepler on their rosters for an entire season. I wonder if TR will hold off on 40 man decisions for each of them for 1 more year. It definitely would help the org if they did.

That said, anyone signed at 16 should be exempt from rule 5 for at least 5 years if not 6.


I definitely can agree on that final sentence. There is definitely a difference between a 16 year old and an 18 year old.

#22 gunnarthor

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 11:47 AM

Nice list Seth

#23 Thrylos

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:09 PM

I think that Lewis Thorpe is way too high based on a total of 44 innings at the GCL if you consider his potential. He did have monster numbers, but if you compare them to Berrios' 2012 numbers in the GCL and Appy, they are not that monster. And I am referring to Berrios because he is ranked at around that spot.

Were he hitting 95 and had a couple of above average offering to complement his FB, it would have been a different story.

I know he is a lefty and there is a lot of hype right now, but...

Edited by Thrylos, 05 November 2013 - 01:12 PM.

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#24 ajstolt_09

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:12 PM

AdamBrettWalkerKernelsHighlights
youtube
The first short clip is an advertisement for the Kernels (be patient) and then there are 29 short highlight clips (15 - 30 seconds each) of Adam Brett Walker at Cedar Rapids home games only. It played on my laptop, but didn't play on my ipad for some reason. I think this series of clips would give everyone a real idea of what Walker brings to the organization in terms of potential.


The guy absolutely crushes the ball! Hes a good looking athlete from the right side of the plate, hopefully he cruises on up to the Twins by 2015

#25 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 01:43 PM

That said, anyone signed at 16 should be exempt from rule 5 for at least 5 years if not 6.


I was going to write an article about this - and still might - but there is an important factoid that we need to remember when discussing whether or not Polanco and Kepler should be added.

Since they both made their full-season debut this year, they will have used up their three options in their first five (full) seasons, allowing them a fourth option year. That essentially allows both players an "extra" year, though it's on the wrong side of the Rule 5 deadline. Both guys are no-brainer adds.

#26 TRex

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 02:29 PM

Sorry, Jeremy, I didn't quite understand what you were saying...

Would these two players end up with 4 option years because of their debut year in full season ball?

#27 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 02:44 PM

Sorry, Jeremy, I didn't quite understand what you were saying...

Would these two players end up with 4 option years because of their debut year in full season ball?


Yes. If you have exhausted your option years before you start your fifth full season, you get a fourth year. Kepler and Polanco will only have four full seasons when their options run out after the 2016 season, so they could be optioned a fourth year in 2017.

#28 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 02:55 PM

A team may have a fourth option year on a player with less than five full seasons of professional experience, provided that both conditions are met below.
A player has not spent at least 90 days on an active professional roster in a season. Minor leagues that play below Class A Advanced have seasons that are shorter than 90 days, and as such, any player who spends a full season in a rookie or Class A (short-season) league will receive a fourth option year.
A player has not spent at least 60 days on an active professional roster AND then at least 30 days on a disabled list in a season. Only after 60 days have been spent on an active professional roster does time spent on the disabled list count towards the 90-day threshold. As with the prior example, this cannot occur with players who spend a full season in a rookie or Class A (short season) league.

#29 Kwak

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 03:16 PM

... so you think that all Top-10 guys should fall in the Elite category? In my mind, not even all of MiLB's Top-100 are Elite prospects. Someone who exemplifies my thinking is Kyle Gibson, who was very deserving of his spot but not what I would ever call 'Elite'.


No, and I qualified my post--but i will explain. Every "Top Ten List" has ten names--but that doesn't imply that all ten are, or must be, "elite". It's very likely that only a handful are actually "elite", but the list still has ten names. But if there aren't ten guys who actually are "elite" the bottom of the list needs to be weighted with those on the cusp of the majors to reflect their success over time and the likely promotion to the majors.

There may be more than ten "elites" (if a team is really fortunate)--but only ten are on the "Top Ten List".

#30 Thesouthpaw22

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Posted 05 November 2013 - 05:03 PM

It is tough to put Thorpe already in the Top 10 simply because he really hasn't proved much yet, he still has a lot of maturity and experience to gain, overall if I were to switch up a few things I would swap Adam Walker and Max Kepler, simply because of what we got to see number wise last year, Walker was the Midwest League player of the year and Kepler is still improving down in Cedar Rapids, but I like Berrios at no. 7, I think he eventually will be up in the Top 5 because he will be a number 2, maybe a number 3 starter when he touches his ceiling(or if he ever does, but im optimistic about him). Watching Berrios pitch in the WBC was FANTASTIC, he was only 19 at the time, throwing Fastballs past elite players such as Robinson Cano, he has no where to go but up! I really don't see Polanco at number 6 though, he had a solid year this year but when you look at players that I previously mentioned they have a bigger upside than Polanco does. Very excited to see what you have as the Top 5! You guys do great work.