Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

The Store

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Recent Blogs


Photo

Article: Minnesota Twins Top 50 Prospects: 11-15

  • Please log in to reply
38 replies to this topic

#1 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 03:17 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...Prospects-11-15

#2 ashburyjohn

ashburyjohn

    Twins Daily Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,837 posts
  • LocationLake Tahoe, Nevada

Posted 03 November 2013 - 03:28 PM

If I'm reading b-r.com right, May's opponent OPS changed hardly at all in his second year in the Eastern League, .759 -> .757. Maybe the coaches planted some seeds of change that will pay off at AAA this year. I hope so.

#3 Thrylos

Thrylos

    Yes

  • Members
  • 4,551 posts
  • LocationLehigh Valley, PA, USA
  • Twitter: thrylos98

Posted 03 November 2013 - 04:39 PM

If I'm reading b-r.com right, May's opponent OPS changed hardly at all in his second year in the Eastern League, .759 -> .757. Maybe the coaches planted some seeds of change that will pay off at AAA this year. I hope so.


Yes, but: his FIP went from 4.24 to 3.79 and his BABIP increased from .292 to .329. Also his K/9 increased and B/9 dropped, which are all signs of progress. He still walks way too many for my taste at this point, but I think a change of scenery at AAA might help.
-----
Blogging Twins since 2007 at The Tenth Inning Stretch
http://tenthinningst...h.blogspot.com/
twitter: @thrylos98

#4 mike wants wins

mike wants wins

    Would Like to be More Positive

  • Members
  • 7,253 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 04:57 PM

If Santana can play SS in the majors, that would be huge for this team. May was what we were warned by the internet experts this year, I thought. Pinto should, IMO, be the starting catcher next year. It amazes me people think they cannot compete next year, and would risk Mauers health next year. This is a list with upside, but low floors too. Which is what you would expect at this level in the rankings.

#5 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 06:30 PM

If Santana can play SS in the majors, that would be huge for this team. May was what we were warned by the internet experts this year, I thought. Pinto should, IMO, be the starting catcher next year. It amazes me people think they cannot compete next year, and would risk Mauers health next year. This is a list with upside, but low floors too. Which is what you would expect at this level in the rankings.


I wonder if Santana is Florimon, without the great defense (though great range and arm) or the HR power, but with better batting average.

I hope that the Twins call up May to start. I just like the K-Rate. Worst case, he has to move to the bullpen, but I'd give him every shot. There were some improvements and still reason for hope of a #3 type of pitcher..

I agree on Pinto being the primary starting catcher. That's what I would want to do.

11-15 is an area where there is upside already, but generally speaking, it's not an elite ceiling. In any organization, there are really only about 2-3 guys that meet the high ceiling, relatively high floor category. I think the Twins have 3-4 this year.

#6 Jim H

Jim H

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 439 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 06:45 PM

Seth, I really appreciate your top fifty lists. More the comments than the actual ratings, you put a lot of work into them. I am rather excited about this year's list. When guys like Wimmers and Salcedo are near the bottom, it speaks to a certain amount of depth.

I am not a huge fan of Santana, I am not sure why. He has produced the last few years, and errors are often cleaned up as players mature. Right now, I am a bigger fan of Goodrum and Polanco as future big league middle infielders, though unlike you, I have never seen any of them play.

I like Pinto too, and think he will get better defensively. He didn't look that bad defensively this fall, the strong arm and hard work will likely compensate for some of his weaknesses.

I am pretty hopeful about May. I think he should be a pretty good starter someday, and I hope the Twins don't move him to reliever unless he acually fails as a major league starter. While I like guys who don't walk many, big guys like May often take a long time to harness their stuff.

#7 diehardtwinsfan

diehardtwinsfan

    Twins Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 5,036 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 06:53 PM

I agree with the comments on May. He's going to get every opportunity to start, and while the ERA didn't necessarily show it, the peripheral stats all showed him taking a step forward. Hopefully we see that walk rate in particular drop a bit more in Rochester next year. If he can keep it around 3/9, he's going to be a very good starter.

Pinto is way too low. He has an outside shot to be a top 100 guy on a lot of lists this offseason. He's far better than where you have him ranked. He's a catcher that can hit. Defense is a work in progress I agree, but he's good enough to stick there.

I'm with Jim on Santana. Not sure what to think there. The bat doesn't excite me unless he gets some gap power or something.

#8 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 07:05 PM

Jim H - The comments and discussion are my favorite parts about these lists as well. As I've said, there are times that the discussion sways my rankings up to a couple of spots. The other thing is that it shows a lot of guys beyond just the top prospects. There have been players who didn't appear on the Top 50 lists, so you never know.

diehard - I like May. I'm with you. Drop the walk rate just a little bit, and keep that K rate close to 9 (or at least above 8), and he's exciting. As for Pinto, he might be close to those Top 100s. I don't think he should be quite in that category, but he can still be a very solid MLB player. To be somewhat honest, in my mind, my prospects 6-12 could all be somewhat interchangeable. The thing that is encouraging to me with Santana is that he is not just a slap hitter. I'd like to see more walks, but he takes a healthy swing, and although he won't have HR power, he can get doubles and triples, I think.

#9 DAM DC Twins Fans

DAM DC Twins Fans

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 522 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 07:32 PM

I am definitely looking forward to the prospect list (6-10) assuming the top 6 are Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Rosario and Stewart. I was a little surprised Pinto didn't make top 10--I am hoping that he starts a lot with Twins and Mauer goes to first. (In all honesty, I expect Joe will catch until the next injury--if that happens the Pinto should go to Rochester and get playing time.)

I may be biased since Gonsalves was one of my adapt-a-prospects, but I think he is top 10. I know he is young, and he looks like he could be a bit of a head case, but I think his ceiling is unlimited (Sabathia type ace). That is a higher ceiling than May who spent 2 years in the Eastern League IMHO. Also, I don't remember Berrios being listed (I may have missed him) but I would rank Gonsalves ahead of Berrios too. Not that I have anywhere near Seth's experience in this...

BTW: Is Aaron Hicks still considered a prospect?? Or did he spend too much time with the Twins.

#10 DAM DC Twins Fans

DAM DC Twins Fans

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 522 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 07:33 PM

OOPs--that should have been top 5 not top 5

#11 SurroundedByTigers

SurroundedByTigers

    Member

  • Members
  • 46 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:32 PM

Reading these rankings, and the talent that seems to be coming through the pipeline, I'm wondering how the Twins decision-makers go about building the 2014 ML roster. Do they projection, by midseason, that guys like May, Meyer and Gibson will anchor the rotation, and guys like Sano, Rosario, Pinto, and more, will be regulars? If so, I'd like to see the Twins aggressively go into the pitching market for at least two arms who will help the team be somewhat competitive until young bats arrive to help turn this franchise around.

#12 lee_the_twins_fan

lee_the_twins_fan

    Member

  • Members
  • 87 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:35 PM

I am sure that Travis Harrison deserves to be on this list. I'm just not sure he deserves to be no. 12. Someone who hits just .253/.366/.416 (.782) with 28 doubles and 15 home runs – and who remains a work-in-progress defensively, I question that he should be ahead of, say no. 20 - Niko Goodrum - SS, .260/.364/.369 (.732), who appears to be better defensively.
Just wondering why he rates so much higher? I guess I rate defense a little higher.

#13 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:39 PM

I may be biased since Gonsalves was one of my adapt-a-prospects, but I think he is top 10. I know he is young, and he looks like he could be a bit of a head case, but I think his ceiling is unlimited (Sabathia type ace). That is a higher ceiling than May who spent 2 years in the Eastern League IMHO. Also, I don't remember Berrios being listed (I may have missed him) but I would rank Gonsalves ahead of Berrios too. Not that I have anywhere near Seth's experience in this...

BTW: Is Aaron Hicks still considered a prospect?? Or did he spend too much time with the Twins.


Hicks had about 280 at bats. The limit for "prospect" is 130 at bats.

I like Gonsalves as well. But, to have a 4th round pick from high school this year at #14 is pretty aggressive already. He has a chance to move up quickly. Comparing Berrios' numbers in 2012 to Gonsalves is 2013 is pretty interesting. Both had terrific debuts in the GCL and E-Town.

#14 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:50 PM

I am sure that Travis Harrison deserves to be on this list. I'm just not sure he deserves to be no. 12. Someone who hits just .253/.366/.416 (.782) with 28 doubles and 15 home runs – and who remains a work-in-progress defensively, I question that he should be ahead of, say no. 20 - Niko Goodrum - SS, .260/.364/.369 (.732), who appears to be better defensively.
Just wondering why he rates so much higher? I guess I rate defense a little higher.


Fair question... in a way, some of it is based on numbers, but at those lower levels, for me at least, it's more about projection. I think that Harrison will hit for a little more average, and I think that his power potential is pretty impressive. He's not there, and he really struggled the last 4-6 weeks. I really like Goodrum. I think he can be a solid all-around player, not flashy, just solid. I'm not sure he'll stay at SS. I'm not sure he'll hit for average. I think both do a great job of walking. I think Harrison could drop a couple of spots, and maybe Goodrum could come up a spot or two. But again, for me, it's more about projecting tools and I think Harrison has a chance to add a lot of power. We shall see.

#15 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 10,159 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks

Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:53 PM

Seth... I also want to say I appreciate these reports a bunch. I tend to not personally opine on the young prospects because I haven't seen them personally. I'm much more opinionated on MLB players that I've seen.

When it comes to the farm... You are my eyes... I've learned to trust you even when a prospect doesn't pan out like you thought. I know you make every effort to see them... Learn about them... Vet them... And I want to say thanks.

#16 lightfoot789

lightfoot789

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 709 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:56 PM

OOPs--that should have been top 5 not top 5


Top 5 not Top 6 :)

I like your order thus far Seth. I think Pinto might be a Top 10 prospect as well though. Hard to find Catchers who can hit that well.

Edited by lightfoot789, 03 November 2013 - 09:00 PM.


#17 lee_the_twins_fan

lee_the_twins_fan

    Member

  • Members
  • 87 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 09:14 PM

Seth:

Thanks for the info. I, too, appreciate and value all of the work you do to put these lists together, and I'm looking forward to the last two lists. I know the lists are subjective. But they are also very informative.

Great job.

#18 DAM DC Twins Fans

DAM DC Twins Fans

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 522 posts

Posted 03 November 2013 - 11:15 PM

Hicks had about 280 at bats. The limit for "prospect" is 130 at bats.

I like Gonsalves as well. But, to have a 4th round pick from high school this year at #14 is pretty aggressive already. He has a chance to move up quickly. Comparing Berrios' numbers in 2012 to Gonsalves is 2013 is pretty interesting. Both had terrific debuts in the GCL and E-Town.


Thanks Seth for the prospect definition--also for all the work you do. I have learned a lot from reading you--I agree the comparison between Barrios and Gonsalves (a year apart) is interesting.

As to Pinto--count me among the commenters here that he should have been top 10 but we can agree to disagree.

#19 wagwan

wagwan

    Member

  • Members
  • 77 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 01:12 AM

so who's left? Top 5 Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, and Rosario Next 5 Kepler, Walker, Thorpe, Berrios ,Polanco Good group , but not a lot of help for 2014 Only 3 who have played as high as AA. And although they are top 5, I'm not sure that anybody thinks Sano Meyer and Rosario should all start with the Twins in April.

#20 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 08:34 AM

so who's left? Top 5 Buxton, Sano, Meyer, Stewart, and Rosario Next 5 Kepler, Walker, Thorpe, Berrios ,Polanco Good group , but not a lot of help for 2014 Only 3 who have played as high as AA. And although they are top 5, I'm not sure that anybody thinks Sano Meyer and Rosario should all start with the Twins in April.


I would expect to see Sano and Meyer up by about the end of June. I'd expect to see Rosario and Sano up by early August. Couple them with top prospects who surpassed the prospect innings/at bats like Arcia, Hicks and Gibson, and you've got a good start. Theilbar and Pressly came up last year and contributed already. May will be up by July or so as well.

So yeah, some won't be up for awhile, but hopefully this wave (including all mentioned in the above paragraph) takes off and can start learning to win late 2014 and into 2015. Hopefully they establish themselves the next two seasons and then that next wave of talent will be able to come up and contribute (as opposed to being completely relied upon).

#21 wagwan

wagwan

    Member

  • Members
  • 77 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 09:10 AM

You are right. That makes 10 roster spots to prospects in less than 2 years. I guess you could not go faster than that. By the way, did you mean Rosario and Buxton in early August? Sano might be a big enough guy to need two debuts tho...:D

#22 70charger

70charger

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,181 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 10:55 AM

Pinto was up with the Twins for only a month, but he showed what Josmil Pinto is and can be. Starting with the positive, the guy can hit. He began the year in AA and hit .308/.411/.482 (.892). He moved up to Rochester, and in 19 games hit .314 (with an .819 OPS). Right before September, he was promoted to the Twins where he hit .342/.398/.566 (.963) in 21 games. He had five doubles and four home runs. To summarize, he can hit for average, has a very good approach at the plate and knowledge of the strike zone and very good pop in his bat for a catcher.


I'll admit to not following Pinto's career very well so far, so I have some more basic questions. It looks like his hitting game is a high-average, high-OBP kind of thing, which is very encouraging as most catchers don't do those things very well. Throwing out his SSS appearance in the majors, what is your read on whether the power stays with him? Is he a legitimate home run threat too? Can he keep his ~.300 batting average with some seasoning in the major leagues? Is he actually a threat to reach ~.400 OBP in the majors?

I guess what I'm asking is how you'd project him as a big league guy. Most reports I've seen don't really peg him as a star, just a solid starter. On the other hand, if he can get his stats to where they were in the upper minor leagues while wearing a Twins uniform, I think you have one of the top hitting catchers in the league. There are only 3 or 4 catchers in the whole league who can OPS .800. Is this a real possibility somewhere down the line?

#23 NoCryingInBaseball

NoCryingInBaseball

    Member

  • Members
  • 46 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:26 AM

I would expect to see Sano and Meyer up by about the end of June. I'd expect to see Rosario and Sano up by early August. Couple them with top prospects who surpassed the prospect innings/at bats like Arcia, Hicks and Gibson, and you've got a good start. Theilbar and Pressly came up last year and contributed already. May will be up by July or so as well.

Guess I am assuming Buxton coming up in early August, since Sano is listed twice. I like how Seth descibes the "waves" of farm system talent coming up. It's seems like we are in the middle of the first wave (2013-2014) with the second wave (
Berrios, Kepler, Walker, Thorpe, Polanco and Stewart) coming up in 2016-2017.

#24 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:49 AM

You are right. That makes 10 roster spots to prospects in less than 2 years. I guess you could not go faster than that. By the way, did you mean Rosario and Buxton in early August? Sano might be a big enough guy to need two debuts tho...:D


Ha! Yes, I did. The two have been together as teammates since they signed, so maybe they are as one in my mind?

#25 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 8,173 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 11:52 AM

I'll admit to not following Pinto's career very well so far, so I have some more basic questions. It looks like his hitting game is a high-average, high-OBP kind of thing, which is very encouraging as most catchers don't do those things very well. Throwing out his SSS appearance in the majors, what is your read on whether the power stays with him? Is he a legitimate home run threat too? Can he keep his ~.300 batting average with some seasoning in the major leagues? Is he actually a threat to reach ~.400 OBP in the majors?


A .400 OBP is pretty tough, but i think he can be a .280/.360/440 type and be right in that .800 OPS range... for a catcher, that's tremendous. I wouldn't expect that right away next year. He was voted the "Best Plate Discipline" (or something to that effect) in the Eastern League this year. He takes good at bats and knows the strike zone. He is strong. He's a big weight room guy who is said to outwork most. So, we'll see, but I think an .800 OPS is realistic. Maybe optimistic too, but not out of the realm of possibility.

#26 Outlier

Outlier

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 18 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 03:36 PM

I'm curious as to what causes Aderlin Meija to be left off of a top 50 prospects list.

#27 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,155 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 03:40 PM

I'm curious as to what causes Aderlin Meija to be left off of a top 50 prospects list.


Well the OPS did drop at the end of the year to a much more pedestrian number. He should repeat A+ and then we'll really see.

#28 pierre75275

pierre75275

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 315 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 03:49 PM

Does anybody know what Josmil Pinto stats were over the full season of AA, AAA and the majors?

#29 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,155 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 04:02 PM

Does anybody know what Josmil Pinto stats were over the full season of AA, AAA and the majors?


It looks like about .900 OPS, with 19 homers, 37 doubles, 72 walks, and 105 strikeouts.

#30 MWLFan

MWLFan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 197 posts

Posted 04 November 2013 - 04:36 PM

Seth as always great work. Trying to remember how long I have been reading your stuff. 8 years now? Maybe. Anyways, I have seen just about all these guys play either in Beloit or CR and I always find it interesting and exciting to see your comments on them to compare to mine. Never been a Santana guy, just don't see it. beresford was my SS of choice for the Snappers. I liked Goodrum, he plays pretty fluid for a guy his size and I would think he could stay at Short, plus he has a cannon over there. Next to Buxton the bat that really excited me this year at CR was Polanco. He squared up on everything he hit and laced balls all over the field. I got to see him play short when Goodrum was out and it really made it clear that he is a second baseman in the future. The question I had was is he better then Rosario who I saw a year earlier? I think it is close. Rosario may have more power, but Polanco is better in the field at this level. What a nice place to be with 2nd. Harrison I might put a bit lower, but not much. He has the frame to develop into that big corner bat that could really team with Sano and Vargas (DH) to cause nightmares among pitchers. Hopefully will get a look at Gonsalves this year in CR, maybe Thorpe and Stewart at some point too? Thanks again Seth.