Posted 29 October 2013 - 01:59 PM
Trade Ryan Doumit to the Texas Rangers for RH SP Nick Martinez. Justification: unless the Rangers strike gold and land McCann, resign AJ, Soto, Murphy, and Cruz, and refrain from trading anyone else, it looks like a cheap DH/C/RF option with a potentially good enough bat might be something the Rangers need.
Nick Martinez ranks around 15-20 in the Rangers system and has a career 3.30 ERA in 327.1 minor league innings, compiling an 8.1/2.7 K/BB rate, reaching AA in 2013 (which is where he would start in 2014). The Twins are in need of some SP support between Gibson, Meyer, and May on one end, and Berrios, Sulbaran, Stewart, Thorpe, etc. on the other end. Martinez would join Baxendale and Duffey in that spot, and is probably better than both.
Sign RH SP Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal. (13 a year)
Sign LH SP Chris Capuano to a 2 year, $15 million deal. (7.5 a year)
Scott Diamond/Vance Worley
Send Ryan Pressly to Rochester to get back to starting.
Florimon, SS (some Escobar action here against righties)
Escobar, Util infield
Chris Colabello 1B/RF
(Deibinson Romero next option in AAA for bench role)
Sano should be up fairly quickly. May, Meyer, Rosario, and perhaps Buxton to follow by the All-Star break at the latest for the first two, and September for the second two).
Sano joins the team and Trevor Plouffe moves to platoon with Presley, and someone (Colabello, probably) gets optioned.
I am then looking to *unload* that bullpen as long as the replacements are doing well in AAA. I am thinking Burton, Fien, Swarzak, and Duensing flipped at the deadline or before. Achter, Watts, Oliveros, and Ibarra could be suitable replacements on the roster, with Tonkin (likely) moving to the setup role for Perkins.
Trading Doumit and adding those two free agents would make for a rather modest $76.5 million payroll.
* * *
The second scenario involves being more proactive, unloading some more payroll before adding much more back.
1. Josh Willingham and Casey Fien to Baltimore for RHP Parker Bridwell and LHP Lex Rutledge. Justification: The Orioles are going to want one bat and to bolster their bullpen. They do it here for very cheap, especially since I would pay part of Willingham's salary if necessary.
Bridwell is young with great stuff. His numbers are very Trevor Mayesque at this point, but he is still figuring it out. He would start in A+ in 2014. Rutledge would start in A+ as well, and might be worth taking a look as a starter again. He was bad early in his career there, and was very good as a reliever in 2013, but he does have a good curveball to go with a decent fastball and that could mean for more experimentation this year, perhaps splitting time and get over 100 innings this year.
2. Kevin Correia and Jared Burton to San Francisco for LHP Ty Blach and RHP Keury Mella. Justification: The Giants want A: a solid starting pitcher, and B: a solid MR/SU man. For $8.75 million, they get both of those things here (or less, I would pay some salary to make this happen).
Blach is a LH starter who ranks around 10 or so on Giants' prospect lists. He would start at AA in 2014. Mella is very young and missed a lot of bats in rookie ball. He is a RH starter and would start in A- in 2014.
3. Sam Deduno and Anthony Swarzak to Philadelphia for LF/RF/1B Cameron Perkins and RHP Jeb Stefan. Justification: the Phillies pitching situation is a mess and here is a way for them to improve it for $1.5 or so million. Lannan and Kendrick are not very good, Cloyd needs more time in the minors, and they could try Swarzak out as a starter. Deduno and Swarzak would be 4-5 after Lee, Hamels, and Pettibone.
Perkins posted a .790 OPS in A+ in 2013. He's a RH bat with doubles power and plays corner OF and 1B. He would fill an organizational void in the OF in the middle of the system and would immediately be a better option than Danny Ortiz, Angel Morales, etc. moving forward. Stefan pitched fairly well in A-ball in 2013 and would start the system in A+ starting for the Miracle or developing into a setup man.
4. Ryan Doumit to the Texas Rangers for RHP Nick Martinez. Justification: see first scenario.
In all of these cases, the Twins should think about paying part of the 2014 salary to lure these teams to make these deals. Let's just say that salary contribution totals $8 million. The guys dealt with substantial contacts totals about $20, so this amounts to a saving of $12 million, dropping payroll to $47.5 million or so.
Try to sign: Masahiro Tanaka for a $55 million post and a 6 year, $60 million deal. FAIL (Yankees will win):
Sign Ervin Santana for a 5 year, $85 million deal.
Sign Phil Hughes to a 3 year, $39 million deal.
Sign Chris Capuano to a one year, $8 million deal (and hope for deadline trade this way)
With Santana, Hughes, and Capuano, this adds $38 million, meaning an $85.5 million payroll.
Send Ryan Pressly to AAA to become a starter again.
LR: Diamond/Worley, or Hendriks, or Albers
Arcia, DH (but with OF time)
Escobar, Util INF
I understand how this lineup looks, and I understand the animosity towards Parmelee and Plouffe, and the craziness that appears to be involving Colabello, Romero, Pinto, and Herrmann in such a meaningful way. Moving Plouffe to RF, however, makes room for Sano to play 3B when he arrives and to have both Sano and Plouffe in the lineup against lefties. Sano would replace either Colabello or Romero on the roster.
Rosario and Buxton would follow eventually. I would definitely give time for some Dozier at SS experimentation, but if Rosario is up by mid-season, some combo of 2B-LF, RF, and DH for the remainder of 2014 isn't going to hurt. And by the end of the season this might mean a Rosario-Buxton-Hicks OF.
Willingham and Doumit have zero future for the Twins, so I see no reason bothering with them at all this year. Maybe the Plouffes and Parmelees don't have a future either, but this is a maybe . . . and in a rebuild, I will take maybes over definite no-future types. The Mauer-Buxton-Sano core needs its players around it.
By season's end, I would expect a rotation of Santana, Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, and May. The Twins would end 2014 with five starting pitchers who have been top 100 prospects.
Posted 29 October 2013 - 02:28 PM
I don't think SF makes that trade and Deduno and Swarzak have no trade value.
I don't like Capuno at all. A one year deal is ok I guess but I think he's done. Mauer is going to be the catcher most of the time so we have to figure out a firstbaseman unless we want to platoon Mauer and Pinto between the two (I don't think Pinto's bat will be good enough there). Corey Hart might be interesting one year stop gap. Could have some decent RH pop for a midseason trade and then move Plouffe across the infield when Sano comes up? Not sure. I have no faith left in Parmelee. A bit more in Plouffe but not a lot more.
Posted 29 October 2013 - 03:21 PM
I won't mind if Doumit and/or Willingham are traded away. I have lost confidence in Parmelee. He had a good September, what, three years ago? And hasn't really found any consistency since. Plouffe hit for some power two years ago, so I'm willing to give him another year. I'm also really hoping to see what Pinto can do next year. I'd give him a chance for sure.
I'd keep Deduno and Fien around next year. As for Burton, I really hope he improves from last year.
Realistically, I wouldn't trade Deduno away if it meant being left with 3 pitchers who weren't good enough last year (Gibson, Diamond, Worely) to hopefully fill in the last two spots. Heck, for the short time Albers was up, he was at least able to have a few solid performances. That said, I really hope Diamond has a bounce back year. That would be huge for the Twins, especially if they sign a couple of solid FA pitchers.
Edited by Reider, 29 October 2013 - 03:35 PM.
Posted 29 October 2013 - 03:56 PM
@BaseballPirate: Mike Pelfrey is a Sasquatch. Drew Butera is the #BoatAnchor. Nick Punto is my spirit animal.
Posted 29 October 2013 - 04:36 PM
I don't think it's wise to platoon Hicks at this point. I really think he belongs in AAA playing every day. I'd be fine letting Presley have a shot in MLB at the 1% chance that he suddenly clicks and can be an asset. Platooning really doesn't make sense. Given where this team is, I don't think they can afford to give up quickly on guys who could potentially be solid pieces.
I would thrilled if Doumit or Willingham netted any sort of prospect. I just don't see it. I like the idea of packaging them with some relievers, as I do think there's a glut in the pen and some of these guys could have some value, but I also wonder if the relievers would fetch more on their own while rolling the dice this spring that Doumit and Willingham bounce back... who knows. If Ryan could get Martinez for Doumit, I think most of Twins land would be thrilled.
Posted 29 October 2013 - 04:55 PM
Posted 29 October 2013 - 04:59 PM
Posted 29 October 2013 - 07:42 PM
And all but one of them is either A+ or AA.
The alternative to not going big is to go with either Kazmir or Haren with Hughes. And probably for quite similar years and money. That's acceptable to me too.
There's little doubt in my mind that the Twins will get one of those guys, and Hughes makes the most sense.
Capuano is about an average #4 starter. He's my Correia replacement, but with more strikeout capability. In the first scenario, the two years is just based on the idea that I think it is fairly silly for the Twins to sign a guy for one year at all if he is one of two FA pickups . . . because they are just in the same mess again next year. If the Twins sign three FA starters, then Capuano at one year and would be either disposable (from the rotation) or if good, tradeable at the deadline or before. He also goes back and forth between being above average and below average and in 2013 he was below average . . . In many ways he is an asset that isn't too expensive and could be deadline fodder.
With regard to Ervin, the vast majority of pitchers are going to have one bad year out of five, and many will have two bad years out of five. Only real aces escape one bad year out of five.
Posted 29 October 2013 - 09:57 PM
I would prefer Kazmir on a 3 year deal. He might end up being just as good and I don't like the idea of a 34-35 y/o Santana at 18M/yr in 2017-18. Hopefully, by then, out propects will make us contenders again. I would rather Kazmir and the $18M to spend in 2017.
I would spend the difference on a corner OFer or add a little and sign Morales or Loney if they decide to catch Mauer.
Edited by Major Leauge Ready, 29 October 2013 - 10:00 PM.
Posted 30 October 2013 - 07:10 AM
I heartily agree with your idea of jettisoning Doumit and Willingham, but not until the trade deadline. Right now their value is at its low, if they could get hot, they might be worth more by then.
Posted 30 October 2013 - 07:56 AM
Posted 30 October 2013 - 08:16 AM
Posted 30 October 2013 - 08:44 AM
Sign a good pitcher - Tanaka or Jimenez but I could settle for a Hughes type
Send Doumit packing for anything (or basically nothing if necessary) - Joe says he wants to catch so Doumit is expendable with Pinto as a half time backup/starter
Keep Willy until deadline as a middle of the order bat to take pressure off of Arcia and Sano. And he could have a nice season
Trade Perkins IF there is a top prospect available for him. At a minimum top 50ish regardless of position.
Sign a FA OF'er - this doesn't seem like a good choice but this is where the talent is this offseason. If you are going to spend money then go after somebody good. And even though the farm system is stacked with hitters the MLB team sucks at hitting and prospects bust all the time.
Start Arcia and Hicks in AAA because they have some issues at the plate that need some work. Bring them up in June/July if they look good.
Posted 30 October 2013 - 08:59 AM
Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:09 AM
Thanks Shane. Solid work. One part I really enjoy about your plan is the flexibility in the lineup. I love that you list a RHP/LHP-pitcher approach that includes a players place in batting order and whether or not they play that day. One of my hopes for next year and beyond is that our club embraces platooning. I agree with the FO that its not the ideal but if that gets the best possible production out of our current team then it must be. MUST.
I don't have a problem with taking advantage of the RH/LH but this team needs some better hitters than Shane's projected lineup. That team is closer to 50 wins than 70 wins imo.
For example it's inevitable that some of these guys will be starters next year but this simply cannot be the #4-9 hitters on opening day. Please let there be more talent on the roster than this next season.
Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:10 AM
Posted 30 October 2013 - 09:46 AM
Shane, in your first scenario I don't see Deduno anywhere (either on the staff or as trade bait). I think Ryan is on record as saying that he feels Deduno has earned a chance to be back in the rotation, soI think Deduno is likely to be in the rotation, assuming a clean bill of health.
Oops. That is a fair point and an omission--I came up with the second scenario first and then didn't make the correction in the first one. Man, Deduno makes me think about trading Correia more and more. But, in this case, Deduno would be the fifth starter. I don't know what to do with Diamond and Worley. Worley isn't good, but good lord he was just terrible last year.