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Larry Corrigan Returns to the Twins

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#101 ashburyjohn

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 11:10 AM

1) Has the composition of your staff changed from last offseason when you talked to Parker? I think it was just you and an intern then. (Asked as a Twins fan and possible job seeker :))


A related question: what advice would you give someone young who has an interest in the field of baseball analytics eventually as more than just a hobby? Say, I don't know, somebody's son who is currently a junior in college and majoring in statistics? :) (Just to be clear, he's at school in Seattle and thus anything useful you suggest would cause him to pester the poor Mariners, not you.)

#102 Jack Goin

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:12 PM

A related question: what advice would you give someone young who has an interest in the field of baseball analytics eventually as more than just a hobby? Say, I don't know, somebody's son who is currently a junior in college and majoring in statistics? :) (Just to be clear, he's at school in Seattle and thus anything useful you suggest would cause him to pester the poor Mariners, not you.)

keep up to date on what is going on in baseball news. watch and study the game as much as possible. read Fangraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Solutions.org, Baseball Analytics.org, Baseball America & of course Twins Daily. Go to tangotiger.com everyday. Tom throws out projects for aspiring analytic people all the time. Submit your work to the Community Research page on Fangraphs. Learn SQL, R, Python, etc. Find your niche. Apply for internships. Baseball Ops, Minor League video, etc. Work for his college baseball team if he isn't playing. Familiarize himself with the Major League waiver & option rules. Read the CBA if he can find a copy of it. Learn Spanish or another language (Japanese, Korean, possibly Portuguese). Law school if he so desires. Be prepared to do multiple internships. Pay attention to developments in the business world as well. How are other businesses being run and is there anything that can be implemented in the sports world. He is a statistics major so monitor development in academic research in statistics, math, computer science, big data.
I know that's a bunch of information. I hope it helps. Breaking in is difficult but once you get in it is SO much fun to try to win a World Series.

#103 Jack Goin

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:15 PM

I just want to say, again, thanks for stopping by Jack. Appreciated.

How much do you want to give Ellsbury or Choo?

#104 Carole Keller

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:16 PM

keep up to date on what is going on in baseball news. watch and study the game as much as possible. read Fangraphs, Beyond the Boxscore, Hardball Times, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Solutions.org, Baseball Analytics.org, Baseball America & of course Twins Daily. Go to tangotiger.com everyday. Tom throws out projects for aspiring analytic people all the time. Submit your work to the Community Research page on Fangraphs. Learn SQL, R, Python, etc. Find your niche. Apply for internships. Baseball Ops, Minor League video, etc. Work for his college baseball team if he isn't playing. Familiarize himself with the Major League waiver & option rules. Read the CBA if he can find a copy of it. Learn Spanish or another language (Japanese, Korean, possibly Portuguese). Law school if he so desires. Be prepared to do multiple internships. Pay attention to developments in the business world as well. How are other businesses being run and is there anything that can be implemented in the sports world. He is a statistics major so monitor development in academic research in statistics, math, computer science, big data.
I know that's a bunch of information. I hope it helps. Breaking in is difficult but once you get in it is SO much fun to try to win a World Series.


Yikes ... that seems even harder to get into than the classical music world. Glad I left my math major in the dust all those years ago to focus on music!
“May we teach our children that speaking out without the fear of retribution is our culture’s new north star.” ~Laura Dern
Nevertheless, she persisted. Time’s up.

#105 Jack Goin

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:18 PM

And even if they just wanted to "get through the year", BJ Hermsen, Liam Hendriks, PJ Walters, Samuel Deduno, Sairon Martis, Vance Worley, Andrew Albers, Scott Diamond, Pedro Hernandez, Kyle Gibson, Cole DeVries et al. are plenty enough to "get through the year" with pretty much the same results, without having to have a fifth starter in a good team (Correia) as your first or second starter in 2014 as well...

Obviously we were not able to get through the year with the above mentioned pitchers. This is why pitchers like Correia and Pelfrey were necessary. Veterans who can at least take the ball every 5th day and give you 5 or 6 innings.
If you knew Andrew Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues this year I'm thinking you should be a VP of Player Personnel somewhere.:)

#106 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:29 PM

Phew, tough question, Jack. Not having the info you all do.....

1. I don't see a lot of money that needs to go to current players. I am hoping for a good FA starter....I would also unload Doumit for whatever you can get, to free up money. I'd consider the same for Willingham, if the money goes to Choo or Ellsbury. That would leave 30-40MM to spend to get to 90MM, which I feel is reasonable, especially with the new tv money. IMO, these two players are the most sure free agents on the market, and while expensive, are more likely to return value than any SP. I also don't think "having too many" OFers is an issue. If it works, and the young guys all work, deal someone.

2. Choo should be cheaper than Ellsbury. I'd probably go $13-15MM per for Choo, for 4-6 years. I see Choo as the LFer with Buxton in CF in 1.5-2.5 years. He would also help whoever plays CF defensively this year (Hicks or Pressley). Arcia is either your future RF or DH/4th OFer, imo. Yes, you risk a declining player at the end of the contract, but that is true of any FA. Also, a decling MLB is more likely to be good than a random prospect just by the nature of the fact they have already succeeded in the majors.

3. While some point to Ellsbury's "injury history", it isn't all that real imo. He also shows zero sign of slowing down. I would put him in CF until Buxton is up, then move him to LF. He instantly upgrades your OF defense from below average to above average. With him and Buxton, your range is dramatically increased. I think he's going to be outrageously expensive. It is hard to even type these numbers.....$18-20MM per for 6 years. I don't think anyone gets him for less than that.

4. I don't know how the team counts its dollars.....but if they were really under budget this year, perhaps you can front load the salaries. As a finance guy, I understand why companies do not generally do this. But given inflation the last few years, and what is likely coming the next few, the argument loses some luster. So, if you could front load some of it for this year, that would likely increase your odds of signing the player.

thanks for asking....that's about 1/2 of what I would type if I wasn't in a boring meeting at work.....

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#107 Mike Sixel

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 12:32 PM

And, I'm not sure either of those numbers is enough, alas.

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#108 ashburyjohn

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 04:01 PM

keep up to date on what is going on in baseball news. watch and study ...


Way more nuggets than I had any right to hope for. Thanks for the thoughts.

#109 Thrylos

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 07:24 PM

Obviously we were not able to get through the year with the above mentioned pitchers. This is why pitchers like Correia and Pelfrey were necessary. Veterans who can at least take the ball every 5th day and give you 5 or 6 innings.
If you knew Andrew Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues this year I'm thinking you should be a VP of Player Personnel somewhere.:)


I of course did not know that Albers was going to pitch in the big leagues. And I think that Albers pitching in the bigs is a reflection of the mess the Twins were last season :)

My point is: The Twins have had a whole bunch of replacement and few slightly better pitchers at the end of 2012. Like the above mentioned names. And then they signed a bunch of MiLB FAs.

Let's get the elephant in the room out: The Twins were not going to compete last season (2013).

Why sign Correia to a two year contract? Couldn't Pedro Hernandez or PJ Walters or Liam Hendriks or BJ Hermsen (all on the 40 man roster on opening day) handle those innings?
Or why not throw a kid like Meyer out there, like the Cardinals did with Wacha?

And whether someone pitches 5 or 6 innings, barring injury, is totally manager's choice. I know that this manager (and his pitching coach) likes to make lots of pitching moves and are not willing to let non-veterans pitch through trouble. (This is a different story.)

So what if the Twins lost 103 instead of 96 games if Correia was not signed? In a rebuilding year.

Edited by Thrylos, 31 October 2013 - 07:39 PM.

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#110 ashburyjohn

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Posted 31 October 2013 - 08:20 PM

So what if the Twins lost 103 instead of 96 games


I am interested in a non-rhetorical version of this question, and more generally would like to ask Jack if he's able to tell us whether he has been tasked to look at the business side of things as well as player evaluations. For example, airlines and hotels have expertise by now in a well-developed field of Revenue Management (or Operations Research, more generally) - do the Twins engage in anything that might fall into that category?

#111 jokin

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 12:49 AM

OK, here are most of the pitchers that were in that group. I might have missed one or two. John Lannan? Anyhow, other than Feldman and Correia, not a lot was gotten in that price range. I think the Cubs signed Villanueva to a similar deal but he spent most of the time in the bullpen (although I know some Twins fans talked him up). Anyhow, which high risk/reward guys was I missing? I guess Liriano?

Scott Feldman - Cubs - 1/6m, 12-12 105 ERA+, 181.2ip, 1.6 WAR
Kevin Correia 2/10m 9-13, 97 ERA+, 185.1ip, 1.6 WAR
Brandon McCarthy - DBacks - 2/15.5m - 5-11 84 ERA+, 135ip -0.2 WAR
Dan Haren - Nats - 1/13m - 10-14 81 ERA+, 169.2ip -0.1 WAR
Ryan Dempster - Bos -2/26.5m 8-9 89 ERA+, 171.1ip, -0.2 WAR
Joe Saunders - Seattle - 1/6.5m - 11-16, 70 ERA+, 183ip -0.3 WAR
Mike Pelfrey 1/4m 5-13, 78 ERA+, 152.2ip, -0.3 WAR
Shawn Marcum - Mets - 1/4m - 1-10 67 ERA+, 78.1ip -1.0 WAR
Joe Blanton Angels - 2/15m - 2-14 62 ERA+, 132.2ip -2.0 WAR
Scott Baker - Cubs - 1/5.5m 3 starts, 15ip. Missed most season w/injury

(This is bWAR but fWAR can be very different - according to them, Pelfrey was a 2 WAR pitcher this year).



Yes they can be very different:

Kevin Correia 1.3 fWAR
Shaun Marcum 1.3 fWAR
Dan Haren 1.5 fWAR
Brandon McCarthy 1.8 FWAR
Scott Feldman 2.1 fWAR

I'll take the higher-upside guys every time.

Edited by jokin, 01 November 2013 - 12:53 AM.


#112 jokin

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 01:11 AM

You and I just going to have to disagree on this one. Signing veteran players, even if you are rebuilding, is a necessity sometimes to allow your prospects to continue their development path in the Minor Leagues.


Todd Redmond was available, for free on the waiver wire, twice. If you were going to punt 2013 anyway, why not sign Redmond for the minimum....?....and then if you could flip a Correia or Pelfrey at the deadline, or if someone else inevitably faltered, you had a very capable, high-performing MiLB pitcher, with a high K/9 rate and terrific control?

#113 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 01 November 2013 - 05:36 AM

Todd Redmond was available, for free on the waiver wire, twice. If you were going to punt 2013 anyway, why not sign Redmond for the minimum....?....and then if you could flip a Correia or Pelfrey at the deadline, or if someone else inevitably faltered, you had a very capable, high-performing MiLB pitcher, with a high K/9 rate and terrific control?


So, did he get picked up by another team the second time around?