How I believe the Twins try to piece their offense together and why.
Posted 27 October 2013 - 08:54 PM
Today we will look at the offense and some trends from their past and how they appear to be moving in a similar direction in the future. From 2001 and on the Twins have for the most part targeted 2 different types of hitters. 1 is the .270-.290 Average 15-25 HR 75-85 RBI (Jacques Jones, Hunter, Cuddyer, Mauer, but he has average, Morneau but with a little more power and RBI, Kubel, Koskie, Hardy though he didn't hit like that here, and Lawton, Willingham, Arcia, Plouffe, Colabello almost and Parmalee almost and the other type of hitter is the "piranha" .270-.300 Ave .310-.340 OBP and .310-.340 SLG (Punto, Redmond, Tyner, Rivas, Guzman, Orlando Hudson, Span with more OBP, Revere, Mastroianni, and Buxton . There are others for both groups. some who were signed to be in one of the groups and didn't work out. Crede, Devon White, Lamb, And Bautista at 3B if I remember correctly. The Twins tend to go after the first group because of the power added to the lineup at 20 up to 50% of the cost of a 35-40 HR hitter with 80% of the RBI's so that is maximizing the value from those players. The other class the "piranha's"(Even cheaper than the first group) in my opinion are brought on because they have the ability to get hits, put the ball in play which allows the Twins to take advantage of another market inefficiency running the bases aggressively. They take the extra base, hit and run, bunt, steal but not as much, go from first to third on singles and doing these things put pressure on the oppositions defense to make the plays. Parker Hageman published an article on this a few ears ago that I can not find about the way the Twins take the extra base and go from 1rst to 3rd one of the most in the leagues. Which is likely one of the biggest reasons the Twins are one of the better than average scoring teams with one of the lowest total team power. If aggressively running the bases and bunts and steals and hit and runs help the team score an extra 30-40 runs per season and the defense can save the team an extra 30-40 runs per season and the pitching and offense are both slightly above average then you have the formula for a winning ball club that should theoretically score 100 more than it gives up. What is the Pythagorean win total of a team who scores 80 - 100 runs more than they give up?
There is one more thing the Twins do that I will write about later.
Posted 27 October 2013 - 09:39 PM
W%=[(Runs Scored)^1.81]/[(Runs Scored)^1.81 + (Runs Allowed)^1.81]
FWIW both WS teams this year have 187 run differentials. I am all for scraping together runs with good defense and baserunning, framing, shifting, etc. but you can't defend and scamper your way to a 200 run differential. You're going to have to hit, with power, and on defense you're going to have to strikeout guys on swings and misses.
edit: Correction, the Cards finished with a 187 run differential, the Sox with 197.
Edited by Willihammer, 27 October 2013 - 09:43 PM.
Posted 28 October 2013 - 04:02 AM
@BaseballPirate: Mike Pelfrey is a Sasquatch. Drew Butera is the #BoatAnchor. I am Trevor May's torn UCL.
Posted 28 October 2013 - 05:58 AM
You would need an entire line-up of Mike Trouts or Carlos Gomez.