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Decided to play GM this afternoon.

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#1 tcarlic

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 04:16 PM

So this is without any trades. Obviously there would be trades, but I didn't want to go through the effort of looking up other players. This is also assuming that the players we are counting on manage to at least test the majors. These are the rosters that I would leave ST with. With salaries, I kind of just shot in the dark and took a guess. Let me know what you think.

2014


SP - E. Santana (31) (4y. 75 mil)
SP - P. Hughes (28) (2y. 20 mil)
SP - K. Correia (33) (1y. 5.5 mil)
SP - K. Gibson (25) (.500 mil)
SP - S. Diamond (27)/A. Albers (28)/V. Worley (26)/S. Deduno (30)/L. Hendriks (24) (.600 mil)


RHP - J. Burton (32) (1y. 3.25 mil+option)
RHP - A. Swarzak (28) (ARB1 1.2 mil)
RHP - C. Fien (29) (.525 mil)
RHP - M. Tonkin (23) (.500 mil)
LHP - B. Duensing (30) (ARB2 2 mil)
LHP - C. Thielbar (26) (.505 mil)
CL - G. Perkins (30) (2y. 8 mil+option)


C - J. Mauer (30) (5y. 115 mil)
1b - C. Parmalee (25)
2b - B. Dozier (26) (.530 mil)
3b - T. Plouffe (27) (Super2 1.5 mil)
SS - P. Florimon (26) (.515 mil)
CF - A. Hicks (24) (.500 mil)
LF - J. Willingham (34) (1y. 7 mil)
RF - O. Arica (22) (.505 mil)
DH - R. Doumit (32) (1y. 3.5 mil)


C - C. Herrmann (25) (.500 mil)
4OF - A. Pressly (28) (.500 mil)
UTL - E. Escobar (24) (.500 mil)
UTL - C. Colabello (29) (.500 mil)


total- 84,875,000 million


-Sign E. Santana and P. Hughes
-Trade B. Dozier at trade deadline and bring up Rosario from AAA
-Let Sano dictate call-up from AAA
-Let Buxton dictate call-up from AA
-Last chance for C. Colabello
-Trade/Let J. Willingham walk
-Trade/Let R. Doumit walk
-Rotate pitchers in 5th spot
-Last chance for P. Florimon
-Give A. Hicks another chance
-Split J. Mauer at 1b and C


2015


SP - E. Santana (32) (3y. 56.25 mil)
SP - H. Bailey (29) (4y. 80 mil)
SP - K. Gibson (26) (.750 mil)
SP - A. Meyer (26) (.500 mil)
SP - P. Hughes (29) (1y. 10 mil)


RHP - M. Tonkin (24) (.535 mil)
RHP - T. May (25) (.500 mil)
RHP - C. Fien (30) (1.5 mil)
RHP - Z. Jones (25) (.500 mil)
LHP - A. Albers (28)/P. Hernandez (25) (.500 mil)
LM - R. Pressly (25) (1.0 mil)
CL - G. Perkins (31) (1y. 4 mil+option)


C - J. Pinto (25) (.500 mil)
1b - J. Mauer (31) (4y. 92 mil)
2b - E. Rosario (23) (.500 mil)
3b - M. Sano (21) (.500 mil)
SS - A. Cabrera (29) (4y. 65 mil)
CF - B. Buxton (21) (.500 mil)
LF - A. Hicks (25) (.750 mil)
RF - O. Arcia (23) (1.5 mil)
DH - C. Parmelee (26) (1.5 mil)


C - C. Herrmann (26) (.750 mil)
4OF - A. Pressly (29) (.750 mil)
UTL - E. Escobar (25) (.750 mil)
OF/IF - T. Plouffe (28) (ARB2 3.0 mil)


total - 108,780,000 million


-Sign H. Bailey and A, Cabrera
-Move J. Mauer to 1b
-Let K. Correia walk




2016


SP - E. Santana (33) (2y. 37.5 mil)
SP - H. Bailey (30) (3y. 60 mil)
SP - A. Meyer (27) (1.5 mil)
SP - K. Gibson (27) (1.5 mil)
SP - J. Berrios (22) (.500 mil)


RHP - M. Tonkin (25) (.750 mil)
RHP - T. May (26) (.750 mil)
RHP - Z. Jones (26) (.750 mil)
RHP - R. Eades (25) (.500 mil)
LHP - L. Thorpe (21) (.500 mil)
LM - R. Pressley (26) (ARB1 1.750 mil)
CL - G. Perkins (32) (1y. 5 mil)


C - J. Pinto (26) (.750 mil)
1b - J. Mauer (32) (3y. 69 mil)
2b - E. Rosario (24) (1.5 mil)
3b - M. Sano (22) (1.5 mil)
SS - A. Cabrera (30) (3y. 48.75 mil)
CF - B. Buxton (22) (1.5 mil)
LF - A. Hicks (26) (1.5 mil)
RF - O. Arcia (24) (ARB1 3.5 mil)
DH - A. Brent Walker (25) (.500 mil)


C - C. Herrmann (27)/S. Turner (25) (1.5 mil)/(.500 mil)
UTL - J. Polanco (23) (.500 mil)
UTL - D. Santana (26) (.500)
OF/IF - M. Kepler (23) (.500 mil)


total - 104,250,000 million




2017


SP - H. Bailey (31) (2y. 40 mil)
SP - E. Santana (34) (1y. 18.75 mil)
SP - A. Meyer (28) (ARB1 4.5 mil)
SP - K. Gibson (28) (ARB1 3.8 mil)
SP - J.Berrios (23)/L. Thorpe (22)/K. Stewart (23) (1.0 mil)/(.750 mil)/(.500 mil)


RHP - T. May (27) (ARB1 1.5 mil)
RHP - Z. Jones (27) (ARB1 1.5 mil)
RHP - R. Eades (26) (.750 mil)
LHP - S. Gonsalves (23) (.500 mil)
LHP - M. Melotakis (26) (.500 mil)
LM - F. Jorge (23) (.500 mil)
CL - M. Tonkin (26) (1.5 mil)


C - J. Pinto (27) (ARB1 3.0 mil)
1b - J. Mauer (33) (2y. 46 mil)
2b - E. Rosario (25) (ARB1 3.0 mil)
3b - M. Sano (23) (ARB1 4.0 mil)
SS - A. Cabrera (31) (2y. 32.5 mil)
CF - B. Buxton (23) (ARB1 5.5 mil)
LF - A. Hicks (27) (ARB1 3.0)
RF - O. Arcia (25) (ARB2 4.5 mil)
DH - A. Brent Walker (26) (.750 mil)


C - S. Turner (26) (.750 mil)
4OF - M. Kepler (24) (.750 mil)
UTL - J.Ploanco (24)/D. Santana (27) (.750 mil)
IF/OF - T. Harrison (25) (.500 mil)


total - 120,550,000 million




2018


SP - H. Bailey (32) (1y. 20 mil)
SP - A. Meyer (29) (ARB2 7.5 mil)
SP - K. Stewart (24) (.750 mil)
SP - J. Berrios (24) (1.75 mil)
SP - L. Thorpe (23) (1.5 mil)


RHP - F. Jorge (24) (.750 mil)
RHP - R. Eades (27) (1.25 mil)
RHP - T. May (28) (ARB2 2.5 mil)
RHP - Z. Jones (28) (ARB2 2.5 mil)
LHP - S. Gonsalves (24) (1.0 mil)
LHP - M. Melotakis (27) (1.0 mil)
CL - M. Tonkin (27) (ARB1 3.0)


C - S. Turner (27) (1.5 mil)
1b - J. Mauer (34) (1y. 23 mil)
2b - E. Rosario (26) (ARB2 6.0 mil)
3b - M. Sano (24) (ARB2 10.0 mil)
SS - A. Cabrera (32) (1y. 16.25 mil)
CF - B. Buxton (24) (ARB2 11.0 mil)
LF - M. Kepler (25) (1.5 mil)
RF - O. Arcia (28) (ARB3 10.0)
DH - A. Brent Walker (26) (1.5 mil)


C - FA (1.0 mil)
UTL - J. Polanco (25) (1.0 mil)
4OF - FA (2.0 mil)
IF/OF - T. Harrison (26) (.750 mil)


total - 126,300,000 million

#2 goulik

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 05:36 PM

I hope Thielbar is in our bullpen for longer than you have planned and I hope Eades is a starter but I like what you have done

#3 Badsmerf

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 06:19 PM

Nicely done. I doubt they go over 120m. I'm not sure signing Santana to that big of a contract is a good idea. Best scenario is the Twins sign someone like Santana or Bailey and Meyer, Berrios, Thorpe, Stewart are all in the rotation by the end of 2016.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#4 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 07:32 AM

I could endorse this plan. It's not my plan, exactly, but I think it is a legit plan that can get them to good sooner than draft and wait......

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 08:06 AM

Only thing I'd point out is that you've got guys jumping up from league minimum too quickly. Unless the minimum salary increases, guys will be closer to $0.5M.

#6 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 08:19 AM

Nicely done as well.

I'd note that I don't think the Santana/Hughes numbers are accurate. Both I think will see more years in particular.

#7 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 09:17 AM

I love the thought and time put into this! I could see with TV revenues increasing that the team's payroll approaches $105-$115, but TR may not be the man in charge if that happens. I will say, no way on Ervin Santana AND I HIGHLY doubt Homer Bailey gets $20M per year, let alone from the Twins. Great job and it is great to see some of these pitchers starting to come up.

#8 tcarlic

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 09:34 AM

Thanks a lot everyone! It was more fun than anything to do.

As far as the salaries go for league minimum and stuff like that - I was too sure on what the case would be a couple years down the road.

Santana - I thought he would be a good pickup.
Bailey - Shooting high in $

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 10:34 AM

I was expecting some embarassing suggestions but was surprised by reasonable predictions. Nice work, and very encouraging. I still don't think the Twins get Santana, though the money is probably close. And even more encouraging, as Seth mentioned, unless the Twins start buying out arb years extremely early, the payroll will probably be quite a bit lower. None of those ideas are out of the question.

#10 Hosken Bombo Disco

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 01:46 PM

Decided to play GM this afternoon.


Fine but how much "full responsibility" are you willing to take on??

#11 shs_59

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 03:22 PM

Nicely Thought out however..

in yr. 2014 BUXTON will not make the Majors. Best case is mid or late 2015. IMO He's NOT TROUT (We don't want to turn him into BJ Upton) Even taking our time with him he could be Austin Jackson, so no need to rush him.

#2 Waaaay waaaaaaaaaaaay to much Money for Ervin "unmagical" Santana

4 Yrs? and 18 Mill a year? You're out of you're mind .

Nobody will go 4 years with him at that money, maaaaaybe on 2 years.

I'd say 3 years at 14 per so 3 years 42 Mill with maybe some incentives.

And in 2015 WAAAAAAAAAAAAY to much Money for an old aging, terrible Asdrubal Cabrera
Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-AA) 2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3. J.O. Berrios (P-AA) 4.) Tyler Jay (P-A+) 5.Jorge Polanco (2B-AA) 6.Nick Gordon (SS-A)7. Felix Jorge (SP-A) 8.Stephen Gonsalves (P-A+) 9.Kohl Stewart (P-A+) 10.Alex Meyer (P-AAA) 11.Max Kepler (OF-AA) 12. Tyler Duffey (P-AAA) 13. Chih-Wei-Hu (SP-A+) 14. Nick Burdi (RP-A+) 15. Travis Harrison (OF-A+) Just Missed :P OF A.B. Walker, P Jake Reed, C Stuart Turner. (e.Rosario, t. May graduates)

#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 03:28 PM

What else are they going to spend the money on? Why NOT overpay for a pitcher?

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#13 S.

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 04:04 PM

#2 Waaaay waaaaaaaaaaaay to much Money for Ervin "unmagical" Santana

4 Yrs? and 18 Mill a year? You're out of you're mind .

Nobody will go 4 years with him at that money, maaaaaybe on 2 years.

I'd say 3 years at 14 per so 3 years 42 Mill with maybe some incentives.

If Santana signs somewhere for 3/42, I'll eat my shoes. It would not surprise me in the least if he gets more than 4 years and/or more than $72M. Whether or not he should is a different discussion.

#14 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 04:05 PM

in yr. 2014 BUXTON will not make the Majors. Best case is mid or late 2015. IMO He's NOT TROUT (We don't want to turn him into BJ Upton) Even taking our time with him he could be Austin Jackson, so no need to rush


He might not be Trout, but he's close. I would be really surprised if he - unless he gets injured or starts impersonating Aaron Hicks - doesn't make his MLB debut this summer before becoming THE GUY early in 2015..

(If Hicks has a great start, that might be another exception to bringing Buxton up.)

#15 Shane Wahl

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 05:33 PM

This was pretty good. If there was a way to get Ervin Santana for 4 years, the Twins should really jump on that. It's likely that he is looking at 5/$85 at this point.

2 years and $28 million might get you Hughes.

Excellent job overall.

#16 Shane Wahl

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 05:36 PM

By the way, I am now predicting the Twins sign Phil Hughes and Chris Capuano. I don't mind them as second and third signings. Ervin is probably a wild dream, but he would be nice.

#17 ashburyjohn

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 08:39 PM

Fine but how much "full responsibility" are you willing to take on??


A pretty darn good amount.

#18 Steve Penz

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 07:16 AM

This is fun to read. I like all the thought you put in it. I am surprised that in your plan and in the comments that trading Perkins is not mentioned. I would have him on the block constantly waiting for the right offer.

#19 nicksaviking

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 09:14 AM

This is fun to read. I like all the thought you put in it. I am surprised that in your plan and in the comments that trading Perkins is not mentioned. I would have him on the block constantly waiting for the right offer.


I'm for trading closers. To me they have the most inflated value, and it's easy to inflate. Promote one reliever to the position and his value (and salary) instantly expand. I'd like to see the Twins become a closer factory and just keep moving them until the rest of the league gets wise. However, maybe Perkins becomes the first Twin to receive a qualifying offer.

#20 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 29 October 2013 - 09:20 AM

#2 Waaaay waaaaaaaaaaaay to much Money for Ervin "unmagical" Santana

4 Yrs? and 18 Mill a year? You're out of you're mind .

Nobody will go 4 years with him at that money, maaaaaybe on 2 years.


I think you're going to be very unpleasantly surprised by the mad money that is thrown around MLB this offseason. Every team, and I mean every team, has extra money to spend that they did not have 12 months ago.

I have the feeling we're going to spend the entire offseason saying "WHO got HOW MUCH? ARE THEY CRAZY?!?!?"

Personally, I wouldn't touch Santana with a ten foot pole. He's the type of signing a team inevitably regrets in 12-24 months.

You don't sign a guy coming off a career year. You just don't do it. A guy like Phil Hughes is a far better value and has upside for your dollar. Santana has no upside, as he just came off his upside career year in 2013. The only direction he's going is down and the best you can hope for is a repeat of 2013. And even hoping for that over a 4+ year contract is a bit like hoping to win the lottery three times in a row.