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Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Ubaldo Jimenez

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#21 Winston Smith

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:14 PM

I think one of the Admin guys should put up a "best guess" thread before FA starts where everyone can predict what they think will be the biggest $$ and best signing this winter. Would be interesting to see who does the best.
Did anyone last fall think the biggest move last winter would be 2 yr @ 5m Kevin Corriea signing?

#22 Seth Stohs

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:21 PM

I'd be willing to give up a second round pick for a top pitcher, as TR said, a guy with longevity. I just don't know that Ubaldo is a guy that I would do that for. As is pointed out above, he's not one of THOSE guys.

#23 Mike Sixel

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 02:42 PM

Who is more likely to be good, Jimenez, or a 2nd round pick? I mean, we pick apart the free agents like crazy, and seem to forget how few 2nd rounders even make the majors, let alone contribute something meaningful.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#24 Willihammer

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:00 PM

Jimenez has front of the rotation stuff and is exactly the sort the Twins should target IMHO, he just needs to command it.

#25 MichiganTwins

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:04 PM

What if we get two guys with qualifying offers? Can we lose more than 1 pick i.e. next year's pick?

#26 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 03:46 PM

I like Jimenez way more than Hughes even if it costs a 2nd rnd pick. Way more. Hughes will never be a top of the rotation guy. Jimenez might.

#27 jorgenswest

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:10 PM

It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility.

No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year.

It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea.

In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.

Edited by jorgenswest, 25 October 2013 - 04:14 PM.


#28 Shane Wahl

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:15 PM

3 years, $45 million.

#29 jokin

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:28 PM

It isn't just losing the pick. It is also losing a lot of draft cap dollars and flexibility.

No one can foresee how they might need those dollars next year.

It could be someone dropping to them and needing the flexibility to go over slot with their first pick and make it up on the second. It could be going under slot with the first pick and taking someone dropping to the second round. The Royals did something like this to sign their supplemental pick Manaea.

In the new draft context, you give up flexibility when you give up the pick. Teams were reluctant to do that last winter.


I believe Mikewantswins already answered your concern:

Who is more likely to be good, Jimenez, or a 2nd round pick? I mean, we pick apart the free agents like crazy, and seem to forget how few 2nd rounders even make the majors, let alone contribute something meaningful.


#30 Shane Wahl

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:41 PM

I would, without a moment's pause, give up the second round pick for Jimenez.

#31 raindog

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:50 PM

I was against the idea of signing him at first, because of the draft pick and the very good chance he regresses. But Jesus...they have to take a chance at some point. There aren't a lot of good options out there.

#32 jorgenswest

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 05:17 PM

I believe Mikewantswins already answered your concern:


Not at all...

While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks.

The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick.

The context of the draft has changed.

In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands.

It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.

#33 Thrylos

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 06:42 PM

Two?! Really?! I'm not even understanding why we lost one to sign out own guy...


Really hated that trade the day it was announced. And now, in retrospect, I should have an even more visceral reaction. A horrible, horrible, horrible trade.


That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...
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#34 jokin

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 07:25 PM

Not at all...

While I agree with his statement about a second round pick, he only speaks to the second round pick as if having it is independent of all other picks.

The concern is about having fewer dollars in the draft. That impacts the first pick.

The context of the draft has changed.

In the old system, Manaea doesn't make it to the Royals. He is drafted by a larger market team that doesn't have a draft cap to worry about. In the new system, a team to could go under slot with their first pick in order to take a second pick falling due to their salary demands.

It could go the other direction also. If they lose those dollars, the Twins might have to pass on a player in the first round who they might have to go over slot. They won't have the flexibility to do so.


Wouldn't this scenario make more sense with a team having a lower first round pick or a supplemental pick.... or is there a Manaea that is going to drop to #5 in the Second Round that you are aware of? If the Twins draft some lower echelon-talent like Hunter Dozier with their #5 pick, a lot of folks around here are going to pretty disappointed.

#35 kab21

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 07:56 PM

It took Tampa 6 years of good drafts (fruitful drafts) to get a good thing going. Twins need 2 more strong drafts to get a team in 2-3 years that will start cranking out .500 seasons or better. Producing at least a few players each year afterwards will be required to put them over the top and also stay competing for longer than 6 years - when free agency starts to decimate those teams after service time is fulfilled.


This is kind of my point. It took 6 years for Tampa to turn it around. If the Twins can get a very good starter for nothing more than money and a prospect that is unlikely to turn out then they are on the road to being a good team faster. And there is nothing about this that means they won't continue to build the farm system.

Here's a thread where many people are prepared to trade someone as good as Dozier/Rosario plus another prospect for a pitcher similar to Jimenez. I would strongly prefer to give up a 2nd draft pick than an actual really good prospect.

#36 snepp

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 08:37 PM

That was after the trade. He was a class A (old agreement) free agent which meant that the Twins would get 2 picks if another team signed him...



Capps wasn't a Type-A, he was a modified Type-B, only a single sandwich pick between the first two rounds.

#37 zchrz

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 12:30 AM

This seems to be the kind of contract they should pursue. It won't take 5+ years so even if its an overpay it can be written off before the new crop of in house products needs to be paid. It would not be that prohibitive there is a lot of cap room and it shouldn't be significantly more than Morneau's contract was. They need to get some talent in here, I think it would be stupid to bring the prospects up to cut their teeth on another 90+ loss team. They don't have to hand out 100+ million dollar contracts left and right but they are going to have to gamble on free agency some. Good free agents generally get their markets value and it takes money to play, if they don't gamble they won't win anything. If they bet nothing and sign cheap, known, "reliable", low risk commodities (Corriea) or just go dumpster diving for rehabs (Pelfry) then the staff will continue to be what it is.
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#38 Zephrin

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 05:39 AM

Ubaldo is not my guy - especially at the prices being discussed. He is going to get paid for 2 ace-like 1/2 seasons, the first half of 2010 and the second half of 2013. (Remember 2010? Dude was 15-1 at the all-star break. He only went 4-7 the rest of the way. The first half of 2013 wasn't eye-opening either.)

Bold can be a good thing, but for me Ubaldo is more risky than bold at 4/$64. Something similar to The Freak's 2/$35 would bother me less.

#39 jorgenswest

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 06:33 AM

I think Ubaldo will be looking for his last long large contract. He has to see this as buy high. I think he will take the best offer and it can be the Twins.

The risk with Ubaldo is that he is either very good or very bad. When he is bad, he can't be on the staff of a contending team. I don't think he is going to age into an innings eating league savvy veteran. If they sign him for 4, how much good Ubaldo do they get?

#40 twinsfan34

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:23 AM

This is kind of my point. It took 6 years for Tampa to turn it around. If the Twins can get a very good starter for nothing more than money and a prospect that is unlikely to turn out then they are on the road to being a good team faster. And there is nothing about this that means they won't continue to build the farm system.

Here's a thread where many people are prepared to trade someone as good as Dozier/Rosario plus another prospect for a pitcher similar to Jimenez. I would strongly prefer to give up a 2nd draft pick than an actual really good prospect.


I can follow that logic.