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Article: Free Agent Pitcher Profile: Phil Hughes

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#41 jay

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 08:34 PM

I don't see Hughes getting more than Edwin Jackson money (4/$52m). Jackson was just a year older and had more consistent numbers.


Inflation is a b.

Edited by jay, 06 November 2013 - 02:50 PM.


#42 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 08:44 PM

Whatever Lincecum signed has no bearing on the rest of the world. 2 years ago he turned down a 4 year extension because he didn't want that kind of commitment. Lincecum does what he wants because that is what he wants to do. If he passes his physical that will push his career earnings to 99 million. There is no pressure on him to do anything but what he wants to do. As a medium tier pitcher and young Hughes should get a 4 year contract. A perfect fit for the Twins as he has the prerequisite plays poorly in Yankee stadium bit down pat.
Side bit here. Can one of you stats guys tell me the wisdom of compiling xfip as a home versus away stat?
era home vs away 4.94 4.10
xfip 4.28 4.35
fiip 4.80 3.78
sorry, I wasn't going to find a different site that had all of the rest of the era predictors. The baseball prospectus article on the predictor stuff showed reliability for all of the predictors was the same with a large enough sample size. 700+ innings was more than a large sample size IIRC.


In this case, xFIP isnt a good metric. It removes home runs allowed and replaces it with "expected home runs". Well, Hughes' problem is that he gives up a ton of flyballs in a stadium that punishes fly ball pitchers. Normalizing that number is ignoring reality.

#43 Shane Wahl

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 08:58 PM

The Lincecum prediction of 4/64 and his signing at 2/35 is informative. Sorry. Maybe that prediction was exaggerated, but still. Lincecum was definitely right below the Tanaka-Garza-E. Santana-Jimenez line. Hughes is with Arroyo and others just below that.

I would not necessarily count on Phil Hughes wanting a 4-year deal. I would expect that he might prefer a 2-year deal because he could see it as a make good contract and still be 29 (as opposed to 31). So he would take more money per year for two years, yet still less than Lincy. Think about it. A one-year deal could make it all the worse if he has another semi-par year. A two-year deal gives him more assurance and gives him a second year to improve. A four-year deal right now for $50 million (at most) could preclude him from a good contract as a 31-year old.

#44 The Wise One

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:11 PM

In this case, xFIP isnt a good metric. It removes home runs allowed and replaces it with "expected home runs". Well, Hughes' problem is that he gives up a ton of flyballs in a stadium that punishes fly ball pitchers. Normalizing that number is ignoring reality.

That becomes the problem with a lot of these metrics. There are cases they do not work. fip biases against a pitcher with good control and a hard but not impossible to hit pitcher

#45 notoriousgod71

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:12 PM

If he's the only signing- no thanks.

If he's a precursor to multiple signings- yes.

#46 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:39 PM

The division argument is debatable but I don't see how the home stadium is debatable at all.

Over the course of his career, here is the home/road ERA of Hughes:

4.96 / 4.10

That's 735 innings of work. That's a huge discrepancy, especially when you factor in that the vast majority of pitchers have better numbers at home, not away from it. Their defenders are more comfortable, they're (usually) more comfortable, and the opposing hitters are uncomfortable.


This is the most compelling argument I have seen in this particular debate. That is a very large sample size. If he can put up a 4.10 era on the road, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to match or better that mark at Target field.

The bad news is that a bunch of other teams are looking at that split and probably coming to a similar conclusion. He is going to get paid. There is no need for him to take a shorter term deal. He is the guy it makes the most sense to me to take a chance on because the term of this contract will during the players prime. This is the guy I expect them to go after the hardest.

#47 Riverbrian

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 09:40 PM

Just using my eyeball... I've never been a Hughes Fan. I've seen him pitch a handful of times and he has never impressed me and this includes starts away from Yankees Stadium in pitchers parks.

He Wilts... from what I've seen. Some pitchers will dig in when they need to dig. Hughes doesn't in my opinion.

With that said... No matter what my eyeball says... I'll take him... He would still be an improvement over some of our current guys. I'll take improvement no matter how marginal.

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#48 Shane Wahl

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 11:59 PM

Ultimately some strange concerns. It reminds me of . . . the Vikings cycling through bad QBs . . . three bad ones ain't enough!

Buy Jimenez or Santana and Hughes. Stop complaining about sucking.

#49 raindog

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 09:57 AM

I would not necessarily count on Phil Hughes wanting a 4-year deal. I would expect that he might prefer a 2-year deal because he could see it as a make good contract and still be 29 (as opposed to 31).

This is what I would expect. I'd almost be concerned if he wanted a 4 year deal, because he might think he's peaked. That's probably overanalyzing, though.

The Twins should overpay him for 2 years and hope for the best.

#50 kab21

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:14 AM

This is what I would expect. I'd almost be concerned if he wanted a 4 year deal, because he might think he's peaked. That's probably overanalyzing, though.

The Twins should overpay him for 2 years and hope for the best.


I wouldn't be concerned if he wanted a 4 yr deal. 4-5 year deals are the standard for pitchers. Typically pitchers want the most guaranteed money although sometimes a pitcher wants a ONE year deal so he can get a longer deal the following offseason.

#51 Shane Wahl

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:35 AM

I wouldn't be concerned if he wanted a 4 yr deal. 4-5 year deals are the standard for pitchers. Typically pitchers want the most guaranteed money although sometimes a pitcher wants a ONE year deal so he can get a longer deal the following offseason.


4-5 year deals are not the standard for pitchers.

#52 kab21

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 10:41 AM

4-5 year deals are not the standard for pitchers.


For good ones they are. Hughes has a mixed track record but he will be in demand this offseason and if he can get 4-5 yrs then he will absolutely go for it. It is not a reason to be concerned that he thinks he has already peaked.

#53 spycake

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:15 PM

Am I alone in thinking that Hughes will want only a 1 or 2 year deal? He was pretty bad last year. How many free agent starters have ever signed 3+ year deals after a season that bad? That would keep his AAV down, guaranteed.

Hughes' record the last 4 years is a lot more like Francisco Liriano's than Edwin Jackson's. Liriano accepted a two year deal, and even Edwin Jackson basically took two offseasons to get his desired contract.

I predict Hughes takes a one-year deal from someone. Even a crazy Gil Meche offer seems unlikely for Hughes at this point (Meche was actually average in the preceding season).

#54 Shane Wahl

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 12:22 PM

Am I alone in thinking that Hughes will want only a 1 or 2 year deal? He was pretty bad last year. How many free agent starters have ever signed 3+ year deals after a season that bad? That would keep his AAV down, guaranteed.

Hughes' record the last 4 years is a lot more like Francisco Liriano's than Edwin Jackson's. Liriano accepted a two year deal, and even Edwin Jackson basically took two offseasons to get his desired contract.

I predict Hughes takes a one-year deal from someone. Even a crazy Gil Meche offer seems unlikely for Hughes at this point (Meche was actually average in the preceding season).


Your reasoning is exactly why I think he would want a two-year deal, since he will still be under 30 when that contract would be gone and he the two years just means more guaranteed money.

The Twins shouldn't look at one-year deals at all unless there is a true reclamation project like Johnson.

#55 kab21

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 07:25 PM

Your reasoning is exactly why I think he would want a two-year deal, since he will still be under 30 when that contract would be gone and he the two years just means more guaranteed money.

The Twins shouldn't look at one-year deals at all unless there is a true reclamation project like Johnson.


Let's step back a little bit. If Hughes is offered a 4/40-4/50M deal he will certainly take it over a 2 year deal regardless of when he becomes a FA again. He also will be a lot of more interested in a one year deal so he can re-enter FA again next season. Someone like the National's would give it to him.

#56 spycake

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 08:10 PM

Let's step back a little bit. If Hughes is offered a 4/40-4/50M deal he will certainly take it over a 2 year deal regardless of when he becomes a FA again.


No doubt, but who would offer it right now? Is there any precedent for a 78 ERA+ starter averaging under 5 IP per start signing anything more than a 1 or 2 year contract?

I don't think Hughes' potential equals, for example, Edwin Jackson's pre-2013 track record.

#57 jorgenswest

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Posted 24 October 2013 - 09:00 PM

Like Lincecom, Hughes is young for a free agent and probably doesn't see this as a last contract. Signing for two years in a situation where he can thrive will lead to a bigger contract in two years. Will he see Minnesota as the place where he can thrive? Would he have confidence in the park, pitching coach, catching situation and overall defense to believe this is the place?

#58 DJL44

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 11:05 AM

Why Phil Hughes? Because AJ Burnett. Not only is Yankee Stadium generous giving up the HR but their defense is also not good.

#59 spycake

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 01:12 PM

Burnett: now that would have been a good pickup for the Twins. The Pirates essentially got him for 2/13 from the Yanks for a couple middling low minors guys. (Burnett had a partial no-trade, not sure if he would have blocked the Twins.) Bill Smith might have made that move, it's similar to some of his deadline deals.

#60 Shane Wahl

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 04:47 PM

Like Lincecom, Hughes is young for a free agent and probably doesn't see this as a last contract. Signing for two years in a situation where he can thrive will lead to a bigger contract in two years. Will he see Minnesota as the place where he can thrive? Would he have confidence in the park, pitching coach, catching situation and overall defense to believe this is the place?


Exactly. And I think he could be quite interested in TF, yes.