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#1 Physics Guy

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:05 AM

The Twins need to fill the top two spots in their rotation for 2014. What are your thoughts about this possible rotation:

#1) Dan Haren - 3 yrs, $42M
#2) Ricky Nolasco - 4 yrs, $48M
#3) Samuel Deduno
#4) Kyle Gibson
#5) Kevin Correia

If Deduno isn't healthy we can bump Gibson and Correia up and put in Diamond, Worley, Albers, Meyer or May. Could the Twins be .500 with this rotation if they make no other changes to the team?

#2 mike wants wins

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:13 AM

No other changes? No, the offense would still need help with that rotation, imo. They will be basically a black hole at SS, CF, 3B, and DH if nothing changes on offense.

I'd rather they sign Lincecum than Haren. I am not a Haren believer, frankly. I'd be ok with Nolasco.
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#3 Shane Wahl

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:23 AM

The problem is that Haren has now been fairly bad for two years in a row, and--other than a solid enough year this year--Nolasco has never been good outside of 2008.

I guess that "problem" could end up being a good thing it drives down value. Subtract one year and some millions and then it becomes more of a worthy gamble. Nolasco would amount to a Correia+ and Haren . . . is a mystery, but he isn't so old to never regain "an average Haren season," which is still good.

Haren at 2 years/$24 million and Nolasco at 3 years/$30 million.

#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:04 AM

I like Haren a lot but I think he's done. Multiple years for him wouldn't be a good idea. I think the Twins will go after Hughes and I think he'd be a good fit for TF. Their are a bunch of interesting pitchers that might be gotten on one or two year deals - Baker, Santana, maybe Lincecum etc - and the Twins will probably add one of those guys too.

Hughes
Correa
Gibson
1 yr deal guy
And I hope Meyer gets the last spot

#5 Badsmerf

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:12 AM

My guess:

1. Pelfrey
2. Correia
3. Gibson
4. Worley
5. Josh Johnson- Torn here. It is pretty hard to predict at this point.

No way Deduno should start in the rotation. I don't think he ever sees the MLB again... well, this is the Twins rotation so I guess anything is possible. I really don't think Terry Ryan is going to improve this team very much in FA. I think Johnson is the most likely because of the local tie and that he needs to prove he is better than 2013. If this is the rotation, I would be ok with it.

My ideal rotation for 2014:

1. Josh Johnson
2. Tim Lincecum
3. Gibson
4. Correia
5. Pelfrey

If Meyer pitches well enough to consider bringing up before the trade deadline Johnson could be trade bait (if he pitches well enough). I'd rather have legit MLB arms waiting in the minors than guys you cross your fingers on. Plus, that rotation might be good enough to win some games while costing less than 30m. Add in Kendrys Morales to a moderate contract and see what happens. Sano, Rosario and possibly Meyer will all be adding talent at some point.
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#6 Physics Guy

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 11:02 AM

I like Haren a lot but I think he's done. Multiple years for him wouldn't be a good idea. I think the Twins will go after Hughes and I think he'd be a good fit for TF. Their are a bunch of interesting pitchers that might be gotten on one or two year deals - Baker, Santana, maybe Lincecum etc - and the Twins will probably add one of those guys too.

Hughes
Correa
Gibson
1 yr deal guy
And I hope Meyer gets the last spot


I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

#7 Physics Guy

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 11:06 AM

Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

#8 Badsmerf

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 12:30 PM

Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

I think there is more than that, but that connection alone is better than nothing. I mean, anyone who has been here would want to come back right? He's kinda one of us.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#9 kab21

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 12:43 PM

I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum


The stats agree with you but 3/42 seems crazy for someone with mediocre stuff and 2 poor seasons. I could live with 2/20ish but not much more. I saw him pitch a few times this season. Early in the season he was throwing his 88mph fastball right down the center the of the plate (the 5.61 ERA). It was sad to watch. Later in the season he was hitting the edges better but I honestly have no idea how he gets 8 K/9. Nobody should be swinging and missing that much at his stuff.

#10 pierre75275

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 12:57 PM

The rotation to start next year will probably be
Corria
Deduno
Gibson
Pelfry
Johnson/haren
I say Johnson/ Haren bc both will be cheap. One of those two will pry get released when Meyer gets promoted.
My wish list would be
Tanaka
Deduno
Gibson
Linsecom/kazmir
Corria.

#11 pierre75275

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 12:58 PM

I dont believe Haren is worth the money nor johnson either. I would view both has reclamation 1 yr projects with good upside.

#12 Winston Smith

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 01:22 PM

Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.

I read that his brother lives in the cities and is a season ticket holder. Must be true if somebody wrote it.
This comment brought to you from the Rosedale Mall studio by Hamm's Beer, brewed in the land of sky blue waters.

#13 Kwak

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 01:45 PM

.500 season is a fantasy. 76-86 would be a huge improvement, this team lacks more than just starting pitching.

#14 Badsmerf

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 02:19 PM

.500 season is a fantasy. 76-86 would be a huge improvement, this team lacks more than just starting pitching.

Adding Lincecum and Johnson would significantly help. Someone like Morales would be a nice stop-gap at 1b. Plus, it would allow you to play Pinto every time a lefty is on the mound. Regardless if Doumit is kept, I think Pinto should be with the Twins as the primary back-up.

Those guys with a full season of Gibson, increased production from Arcia and not a black-hole in CF can add to 16 more wins. Its all hypothetical, but adding a little talent in the offseason helps win games.
Do or do not. There is no try.

#15 mike wants wins

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:11 PM

The fangraphs article on crowd sourcing Harens contract is instructive.....IMO.
Lighten up Francis....

#16 mnfireman

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 04:55 PM

With the payroll that is coming off the books the team should push hard towards Tanaka and Yoon, as well as Haren, Johnson, Lincecum, Santana, Kuroda, & Garza....basically chase 'em all. If they get 2 or 3, plug and play and fill in the rest with whoever has the best spring. If they get 0, bring up the kids and play for the future! They should also pursue Choo, Ellsbury, Napoli, Morales, etc. and see who will come and play!

#17 Lefty74

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 05:02 PM

No other changes? No, the offense would still need help with that rotation, imo. They will be basically a black hole at SS, CF, 3B, and DH if nothing changes on offense.

I'd rather they sign Lincecum than Haren. I am not a Haren believer, frankly. I'd be ok with Nolasco.



I think we'd be better off finding a couple of up and coming pitchers vs. those on the back side of their careers. Both Haren and Lincecom are quickly deteriorating, but if I had to choose 1 I like Haren better.

#18 ashburyjohn

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 06:17 PM

I read that his brother lives in the cities and is a season ticket holder. Must be true if somebody wrote it.


Attached File  f3a5f93d0482bcb21a97c3afc68603c3.jpg   9.18KB   179 downloads

#19 darin617

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 07:57 PM

Does anybody have evidence of this so-called connection to Minnesota that Josh Johnson has? I realize that he was born here, but spent most of his life in Texas I believe. I've heard several people reference this, but have a feeling it's just because they see he was born here. I'm curious if anybody has seen anything written by the national media.


I believe he was born in Minnesota but moved to Oklahoma when he was 5.

#20 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 08:52 PM

There is is a lot of support here based on names. In other words, the guy used to be good. No way would I touch Lincecum if he cost a draft pick. However, I doubt SF makes a qualifying offer. Over th epast two years he is 20-29 with a 4.76 ERA. Yes, I know his FIP is lower but his FIP has always been signiifcantly lower than his ERA so his FIP does not predict he is unlucky unless he has always been unlucky.

Johnson is an interesting high risk/reward but he should be plan-B. I am hoping for two of Tanaka, Kazmir, and Hughes. (in that order) Ervin Santana, Jimenez, Nolasco, and Harden are all decent options but they all make me nervous.

#21 nicksaviking

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:19 PM

I think we'd be better off finding a couple of up and coming pitchers vs. those on the back side of their careers. Both Haren and Lincecom are quickly deteriorating, but if I had to choose 1 I like Haren better.


Sure but everyone wants those kinds of pitchers, that's why they get nine figure contracts. I'd give Haren a shot, but I doubt he gets three years from any team. Lincecum also probably only gets a two year deal, not sure I want to give up a draft pick for the kind of pitcher whose question marks will likely limit him to a short term deal though.

#22 #24 Sano

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:30 PM

My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
now for the rotation
1.Hughes
2.Deduno
3.Corriea
4.Pelfrey
5.Gibson or Worley
Stat predictions
Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
Deduno- 9-6 3.71
Corriea- 7-8 4.31
Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
Gibson- 6-9 4.23
Worley- 9-9 3.92
standings prediction
71-91 5th ALC
Now let's se what we have right now
1.Deduno
2.Corriea
3.Gibson
4.Worley
5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
thats pathetic
standing prediction
57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
JK
Now for what we should do...
Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
3B Trevor Plouffe
3B Travis Harrison
C Matt Koch
SP Jose Berrios
2B Brian Dozier
In return...
SP Homer Bailey
2B Brandon Phillips
Starting lineup
1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2.Brandon Phillips 2B
3.Joe Mauer 1B
4.Josh Willingham DH
5.Miguel Sano 3B
6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
7.Ryan Doumit RF
8.Josmil Pinto C
9.Yunel Escobar SS
Grade B-
Bench:
1B Chris Collabello
C Chris Hermann
SS Eduardo Escobar
CF Alex Pressly
Grade C
Bullpen
LRP:Brian Duensing
MRP:Ryan Pressly
MPR:Casey Fien
MPR:Duke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
MRP:Caleb Thielbar
SU:Jared Burton
CP:Glen Perkins
Grade: B+
Rotation:
1.Ervin Santana
2.Masahiro Tanaka
3.Homer Bailey
4.Samuel Deduno
5. Kevin Correia
Grade: B
Predictions
Santana: 14-8 3.21
Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
Bailey: 13-9 3.54
Deduno: 12-10 3.76
Correia: 9-8 3.91
Standings
89-73 2nd ALC
2nd Wild Card spot
Total team grade: B
In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Meyer SP
Trevor May SP
Danny Santana SS

#23 Erock

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:45 PM

I think Phil Hughes is a great fit and could be a solid #3 starter for the Twins. I want to bring him in and then take a risk on someone with upside like Josh Johnson or Tim Lincecum. Bring in a 3rd guy like Pelfrey or Nolasco and build your rotation around them. Yoon is an intriguing option, but I'm not giving him anything like 3/21 that I've seen some people mention. If he can be brought in on a smaller contract with the idea that he might start in AAA or be a bullpen option, I would be all for it.

Hughes, Johnson, Pelfrey, Yoon would vastly improve the rotation and give us plenty of options. It won't win us a championship, but it's a lot better than what we have and can bring us toward that .500 mark as our team grows with our top prospects.

Edited by Erock, 20 October 2013 - 10:48 PM.


#24 Shane Wahl

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:50 PM

My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
now for the rotation
1.Hughes
2.Deduno
3.Corriea
4.Pelfrey
5.Gibson or Worley
Stat predictions
Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
Deduno- 9-6 3.71
Corriea- 7-8 4.31
Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
Gibson- 6-9 4.23
Worley- 9-9 3.92
standings prediction
71-91 5th ALC
Now let's se what we have right now
1.Deduno
2.Corriea
3.Gibson
4.Worley
5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
thats pathetic
standing prediction
57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
JK
Now for what we should do...
Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
3B Trevor Plouffe
3B Travis Harrison
C Matt Koch
SP Jose Berrios
2B Brian Dozier
In return...
SP Homer Bailey
2B Brandon Phillips
Starting lineup
1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2.Brandon Phillips 2B
3.Joe Mauer 1B
4.Josh Willingham DH
5.Miguel Sano 3B
6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
7.Ryan Doumit RF
8.Josmil Pinto C
9.Yunel Escobar SS
Grade B-
Bench:
1B Chris Collabello
C Chris Hermann
SS Eduardo Escobar
CF Alex Pressly
Grade C
Bullpen
LRP:Brian Duensing
MRP:Ryan Pressly
MPR:Casey Fien
MPR:Duke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
MRP:Caleb Thielbar
SU:Jared Burton
CP:Glen Perkins
Grade: B+
Rotation:
1.Ervin Santana
2.Masahiro Tanaka
3.Homer Bailey
4.Samuel Deduno
5. Kevin Correia
Grade: B
Predictions
Santana: 14-8 3.21
Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
Bailey: 13-9 3.54
Deduno: 12-10 3.76
Correia: 9-8 3.91
Standings
89-73 2nd ALC
2nd Wild Card spot
Total team grade: B
In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Meyer SP
Trevor May SP
Danny Santana SS


Well, that was ambitious . . .

As soon as the Offseason GM Handbook comes out, people will be posting "offseason blueprints" left and right here. I recommend that you organize this with more detail and post again about it about two weeks!

#25 Shane Wahl

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 10:55 PM

I will bet that the Twins sign Phil Hughes and re-sign Mike Pelfrey.
They should make Hughes the second signing and never consider Mike Pelfrey.

Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez, to me, are realistic targets at the very top of what the Twins would ever spend.

Nolasco, Hughes, Linecum, and so forth, are in the "The Twins will go after one of these guys and if they get him will make the claim that they went out and spent big money."

#26 freshinthehouse

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 11:11 PM

Here's what I hope happens.

1. Tanaka
2. Pelfrey (or some other cheap one year option)
3. Corria
4. Gibson
5. Diamond/Pelfrey/Duduno or some other placeholder until Meyer is ready

Take our lumps, get another top 5 pick, sign a quality arm in 2015, and let the new era begin.
BYTO R.I.P.

#27 jokin

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 11:13 PM

Well, that was ambitious . . .

As soon as the Offseason GM Handbook comes out, people will be posting "offseason blueprints" left and right here. I recommend that you organize this with more detail and post again about it about two weeks!


I like his work....another one of us who thinks it's time to take a chance on Yunel Escobar @ SS and actually put a real CF back out on the field in Ellsbury, AND....we have a much more realistic chance on getting this International and this FA than we do with say, Tanaka and/or Granderson.

#28 glunn

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 12:59 AM

My guess is that the rotation will suck so let's start with what we will probably get in free agency
Phil Hughes
Mike Pelfrey
now for the rotation
1.Hughes
2.Deduno
3.Corriea
4.Pelfrey
5.Gibson or Worley
Stat predictions
Hughes- 10-7 3.87 Era
Deduno- 9-6 3.71
Corriea- 7-8 4.31
Pelfrey- 4-10 4.72
Gibson- 6-9 4.23
Worley- 9-9 3.92
standings prediction
71-91 5th ALC
Now let's se what we have right now
1.Deduno
2.Corriea
3.Gibson
4.Worley
5.Diamond 4-11 5.12 Era
thats pathetic
standing prediction
57-105 worst in the in the frickin' league
Fan base crashes organisation moves to California
JK
Now for what we should do...
Pohlad said we can spend 40mil, ok so lets do it
For starters sign Ervin Santana, he fits perfectly 5yrs 65mil
he gives up a lot of home runs so he would like Target Field
make starters feel comfortable by signing Jacoby Ellsbury 5yrs 70mil, so now you have 13 mil sign Masahiro Tanaka 6yrs 57mil, now sign Yunel Escobar 1yr option of a 2nd and 3mil. Finally trade:
3B Trevor Plouffe
3B Travis Harrison
C Matt Koch
SP Jose Berrios
2B Brian Dozier
In return...
SP Homer Bailey
2B Brandon Phillips
Starting lineup
1.Jacoby Ellsbury CF
2.Brandon Phillips 2B
3.Joe Mauer 1B
4.Josh Willingham DH
5.Miguel Sano 3B
6.Oswaldo Arcia LF
7.Ryan Doumit RF
8.Josmil Pinto C
9.Yunel Escobar SS
Grade B-
Bench:
1B Chris Collabello
C Chris Hermann
SS Eduardo Escobar
CF Alex Pressly
Grade C
Bullpen
LRP:Brian Duensing
MRP:Ryan Pressly
MPR:Casey Fien
MPR:Duke Welker/Anthony Swarzak
MRP:Caleb Thielbar
SU:Jared Burton
CP:Glen Perkins
Grade: B+
Rotation:
1.Ervin Santana
2.Masahiro Tanaka
3.Homer Bailey
4.Samuel Deduno
5. Kevin Correia
Grade: B
Predictions
Santana: 14-8 3.21
Tanaka: 17-7 3.17
Bailey: 13-9 3.54
Deduno: 12-10 3.76
Correia: 9-8 3.91
Standings
89-73 2nd ALC
2nd Wild Card spot
Total team grade: B
In the wings: (possible called up prospects)
Byron Buxton CF
Alex Meyer SP
Trevor May SP
Danny Santana SS


Interesting first post rookie. Lots to think about.

#29 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 06:31 AM

I picked Haren because I think he might be a bargain due to perceptions like yours. He finished strong this year, hopefully is over some of the health issues he was having.

First Half - 5.61 ERA, 1.419 WHIP, .852 OPS against, 7.8 K/9
Second Half - 3.52 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, .636 OPS against , 8.2 K/9

Haren will be only 33 next year and I could live with a three year contract for him. Since he doesn't rely on great velocity, I would think he would age well.

I blogged in more detail about the rotation:
Twins 2014 Rotation - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum


42M (14M/yr) for a guy who posted a WAR of 1.3 is not what I would call a bargain. He would be 36 at the end of the proposed contract. Great pitcher in his prime but we have way too many question marks already fo this acqusition to make sense IMO. 2 years and 22M would be a different story.

#30 Brandon

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Posted 21 October 2013 - 06:54 AM

In terms of immediate impact, I can see the Twins with Pelfry and one of Ubaldo Jimenez, Kazmir, Hughes, Baker, and the guy who used to be Fausto Carmona. That would be cool if the Twins signed Yoon too to compete for the 5th starter. I think the Twins will not want more than 3 years on any contract as there is a wave of prospects coming. Unless the Twins somehow end up with Tanaka, which I do not see happening. I do see the Twins signing some more international prospects over the winter who can pitch. I also see the Twins going after pitchers in next years draft so we will soon have an embarrassment of riches in SP in the minors.