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Twin Lincecum?

tim lincecum
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69 replies to this topic

#1 mnfanforlife

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:04 PM

Does anyone want Terry Ryan to consider taking a chance on Timmy?

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:09 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.

#3 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:12 PM

The Giants have implied they will be giving him a qualifying offer since he isn't interested in talking extension. I don't think I'm in for giving away a 2nd round pick* for him at this point, he just doesn't look like a top of the rotation guy anymore. Without the compensation I'd go for him, but at this point I'd rather go for the likely draft pick free Josh Johnson and Dan Haren.

Maybe if the Twins have already signed two rotation upgrades** and Lincicum is still sitting out there in February because no one wants to part with the draft pick, his price will drop. If that happens and he ends up being the third new rotation upgrade for the Twins then I'd be interested. At that point the Twins would have three pitchers superior to what they currently have now and I'd actually expect them to be somewhat competitive. Losing the pick would then be worth it.


[SIZE=1]* Though if next year's #2 choice is another low ceiling Ryan Eades type I'd change my mind.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=1]** Upgrade refers to what a normal baseball team would consider a free agent pitcher, not what the Twins traditionally acquire.[/SIZE]

Edited by nicksaviking, 18 October 2013 - 02:19 PM.


#4 mnfanforlife

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:17 PM

Since the Twins already have a multi-million dollar pick in the first round, why not sacrifice the 2nd round pick with a competitive offer for Lincecum.

The Twins need to draft pitching, but they also have a ridiculous need for MLB ready guys. Lincecum would be the best starting pitcher they've had since Johan (despite his underwhelming 2012 & 2013).

I say risk the 2nd round pick and go after Timmy. Just my opinion.

#5 mnfanforlife

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:19 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.


I bet Timmy wouldn't want it any other way.

#6 Oxtung

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:21 PM

I certainly wouldn't mind. But that comes with many caveats. There are some players for whom it is extremely hard to predict what their price will be in FA. Josh Johnson also comes to mind. Will they receive a qualifying offer? Are they looking/receiving a 1 year make good deal or will they end up signing a long term and higher money offer?

So my answer ranges anywhere from YES!!!! if he signs a 1 year make good offer and isn't extended a qualifying offer to NO!!!! if he signs a 4 year $60 million contract and the Twins have to give up a draft pick because of a qualifying offer.

The devil is in the details, as they say.

#7 James

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:26 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.


You don't know that for sure. I'm sure he'd like to be one, but nothing is certain. That's the same thing as saying that Josh Johnson will be a Twins.

Lincecum is definitely going get a QO, so any other team is going to have to give up a pick. Seattle's first round pick is protected, but they may value it quite a bit. The Twins are on record as saying "they're not married" to their second round pick.

I'm not saying this means the Twins will sign him, but it's way too early to say he will be with any one team.

If he does end up being a Mariner though, I will buy you a beer.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#8 Kwak

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:45 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.

#9 James

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:48 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.

That was probably complaining about the particular draft. Not all draft classes are equal. The 2014 draft class is supposed to be pretty deep.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#10 cmb0252

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:49 PM

You only make a move for Lincy if he is a secondary move. This isn't the Lincy who won two Cy Young's. Not even close.

#11 twinsfan34

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:54 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.


Shane,

You got a hunch or an inside scoop?

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:57 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.


No kidding. I could be convinced, but I just don't think Lincecum is worth it anymore. I can't see him getting more than 2 years, especially from the Twins. So then is two years of Lincecum, one of which will almost certainly be another uncompetitve year, be worth the 2nd round pick? Maybe, though it is a deep draft with a ton of hard throwing HS kids.

#13 twinsfan34

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:58 PM

I certainly wouldn't mind. But that comes with many caveats. There are some players for whom it is extremely hard to predict what their price will be in FA. Josh Johnson also comes to mind. Will they receive a qualifying offer? Are they looking/receiving a 1 year make good deal or will they end up signing a long term and higher money offer?

So my answer ranges anywhere from YES!!!! if he signs a 1 year make good offer and isn't extended a qualifying offer to NO!!!! if he signs a 4 year $60 million contract and the Twins have to give up a draft pick because of a qualifying offer.

The devil is in the details, as they say.


I'm on board with this.

Sign (risk?) a 1-2 yr $4-6M deal on Josh Joshson. Maybe an incentive laden deal that pushes it over $10M annually, with a team option. MN guy comes home would be a great story. He still struck out over 9 per 9 IP. Seems like a command issue on top of the health issue than lack of 'stuff' still left.

I'd be comfortable going as high as $7-8M for Lincecum 2 year deal.

Qualifying offer extended - not worth it. That means $13M+ salary and loss of 2nd RD pick.

#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:58 PM

Shane,

You got a hunch or an inside scoop?


I'd assume he has MLBTR bookmarked. It summerizes and links to all kinds of articles.

#15 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:01 PM

I'm on board with this.

I'd be comfortable going as high as $7-8M for Lincecum 2 year deal.

Qualifying offer extended - not worth it. That means $13M+ salary and loss of 2nd RD pick.


The qualifying offer will be worth $14.1 million. A 2 year deal at $7-8 million would make no sense to Lincecum. You'd need to double that to get considered. 2 for $24-28M is more like it.

#16 D. Hocking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:19 PM

You only make a move for Lincy if he is a secondary move. This isn't the Lincy who won two Cy Young's. Not even close.


True -- although with your post we know what Gardy's nickname for him will be if we do end up getting him.

#17 beckmt

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:28 PM

If the Twins do not win Tanaka, I would say go for it. Money needs to be spent to make a splash and Twins need more than 1 new high level starter.

#18 ThePuck

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:36 PM

Shane,

You got a hunch or an inside scoop?


My guess it's a joke based on the fact that Washington is one of two states where pot is legal and Lincecum is known to take the occasional hit :-)
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#19 LimestoneBaggy

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:03 PM

I need some help on this one. His numbers are down (except for a decent xFIP), and his velocity has been steadily decreasing. I really don't follow Tim or the Giants. What am I missing as giving up a second round draft pick (and I agree with a two for 24-28M) for what appears to me to be a 4-5 guy?
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#20 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:22 PM

My guess it's a joke based on the fact that Washington is one of two states where pot is legal and Lincecum is known to take the occasional hit :-)


It's actually a combination of that (haha!) and that is roughly where he is from, I believe. It also is just a team that makes sense.

#21 ashburyjohn

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:25 PM

My guess it's a joke based on the fact that Washington is one of two states where pot is legal and Lincecum is known to take the occasional hit :-)


More seriously, though, he was born, raised, and went to collitch there. That's not the same as having an inside scoop, but it seems like an obvious plus for the team he grew up presumably rooting for.

/ edit - scooped by Shane's post 3 minutes earlier!

#22 zchrz

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 12:32 AM

Due to proximity I have seen or listened to a fair share of Giants games over the last couple years and Lincecum still has good stuff. He isn't the flame thrower he once was but the Ks are still there. I think it would be a decent gamble to bet that as he continues to learn to pitch instead of throw to deal with his decreased velocity he finds sucess again. Could this be the rare elusive pitcher that Anderson's coaching techniques can actually help? probably not but I would be happy to see him wearing a TC hat.
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#23 kab21

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 01:10 AM

I would give up a 2nd rd pick easily for Lincecum. Lincecum is not 2008/2009 Cy Young Lincecum but his K's and swstr% (important stats for me) are both great and possibly double the typical Twins pitcher. He had an awful 2012 but he's been plagued by bad luck (Hr/FB% and LOB%).

tbh - I would be more interested 3-4 yrs of Lincecum at 50ish million (I am on my own here I know) than spending 100+M on Tanaka. the better option would be to get both. :th_alc: that is impossible though...

Josh Johnson is somebody that doesn't interest me unless we are talking 2 yrs 20M (or less). In a year or two he's going to be compared to Rich Harden. Great pitcher that just can't stay healthy. 1000 innings in 8 pro seasons and he's missed over half of the last 2 seasons.

#24 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 04:01 AM

I'm not a huge fan. Linci hasn't been very good the last two years. I'm not sure his present production warrants a QO, and if SF does this, I don't see anyone signing him. Looking at this stats, his biggest problems is that his HR/9 rate seems to have gone up significantly from his Cy young years. Putting him in TF might help that.

#25 kab21

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 06:47 AM

I'm not a huge fan. Linci hasn't been very good the last two years. I'm not sure his present production warrants a QO, and if SF does this, I don't see anyone signing him. Looking at this stats, his biggest problems is that his HR/9 rate seems to have gone up significantly from his Cy young years. Putting him in TF might help that.


It's okay to say that you don't like strikeouts.

I understand the concern about lack of velocity but looking at HR's is a pretty small sample even if it's over two seasons. It's one reason that xFIP is popular.

#26 JB_Iowa

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 07:07 AM

For me it comes down to a question that I'm not in the position to judge -- Does he have the desire to be the anchor of a pitching staff?

He has the age and experience I'm looking for. He has been at the 200 innings/year mark consistently.

If the Twins offer a premium for a 2 year deal (or 2 year with club option), does he want to be in Minnesota? does he want to prove himself? does he want to be the anchor of a young pitching staff?

I can't see what's in his heart. And for me the mental and personality factors on this one are really the determining factors because this team needs someone to lead the pitching staff.

#27 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 08:54 AM

I could see Lincecum going to Pittsburgh for some reason. Up and coming contender, ownership looking to build on a good core, and I think their pitching coach is well regarded around the league, which might appeal to a smart pitcher looking to regain some of his past success.

I would give up a 2nd rd pick easily for Lincecum. Lincecum is not 2008/2009 Cy Young Lincecum but his K's and swstr% (important stats for me) are both great and possibly double the typical Twins pitcher. He had an awful 2012 but he's been plagued by bad luck (Hr/FB% and LOB%).


It's interesting to see some breakdown of his peripheral stats, since I hadn't looked that close and assumed he fell off across the board more than he really did.

He's going to be an interesting case anyway. I think teams will hesitate to pay him like a top-of-rotation guy, but if he and his agent can sell one GM on his past success, then who knows. Even if he turns down the QO from the Giants, I imagine him getting more years but kind of don't see him getting $14M per year on the market.

#28 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 02:45 PM

It's okay to say that you don't like strikeouts.

I understand the concern about lack of velocity but looking at HR's is a pretty small sample even if it's over two seasons. It's one reason that xFIP is popular.


haha. I love strike outs, but the rest of his stats say he's been pretty hittable when batters aren't whiffing at him, and they've been trending in the wrong direction for a while now. Sabermetrics might love him, but I think that this point we can get beyond the "he's unlucky" thing.

I wouldn't mind him for a reasonable price, but no way that price includes a second rounder in this deep of a draft and a huge contract on top of that.

#29 Thrylos

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 02:49 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.


Add the fact that Ryan lost 2 sup round picks for re-signing Capps and...
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#30 kryptik

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Posted 19 October 2013 - 03:24 PM

Lincecum likes SF too much to leave. Kind of a goofy dude and the city fits him perfectly.

And tbf the whole "weed is legal in WA har har" line is a moot point considering we are talking about him leaving SAN FRANCISCO.