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Twin Lincecum?

tim lincecum
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#1 mnfanforlife

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:04 PM

Does anyone want Terry Ryan to consider taking a chance on Timmy?

#2 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:09 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.

#3 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:12 PM

The Giants have implied they will be giving him a qualifying offer since he isn't interested in talking extension. I don't think I'm in for giving away a 2nd round pick* for him at this point, he just doesn't look like a top of the rotation guy anymore. Without the compensation I'd go for him, but at this point I'd rather go for the likely draft pick free Josh Johnson and Dan Haren.

Maybe if the Twins have already signed two rotation upgrades** and Lincicum is still sitting out there in February because no one wants to part with the draft pick, his price will drop. If that happens and he ends up being the third new rotation upgrade for the Twins then I'd be interested. At that point the Twins would have three pitchers superior to what they currently have now and I'd actually expect them to be somewhat competitive. Losing the pick would then be worth it.


* Though if next year's #2 choice is another low ceiling Ryan Eades type I'd change my mind.
** Upgrade refers to what a normal baseball team would consider a free agent pitcher, not what the Twins traditionally acquire.

Edited by nicksaviking, 18 October 2013 - 02:19 PM.


#4 mnfanforlife

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:17 PM

Since the Twins already have a multi-million dollar pick in the first round, why not sacrifice the 2nd round pick with a competitive offer for Lincecum.

The Twins need to draft pitching, but they also have a ridiculous need for MLB ready guys. Lincecum would be the best starting pitcher they've had since Johan (despite his underwhelming 2012 & 2013).

I say risk the 2nd round pick and go after Timmy. Just my opinion.

#5 mnfanforlife

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:19 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.


I bet Timmy wouldn't want it any other way.

#6 Oxtung

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:21 PM

I certainly wouldn't mind. But that comes with many caveats. There are some players for whom it is extremely hard to predict what their price will be in FA. Josh Johnson also comes to mind. Will they receive a qualifying offer? Are they looking/receiving a 1 year make good deal or will they end up signing a long term and higher money offer?

So my answer ranges anywhere from YES!!!! if he signs a 1 year make good offer and isn't extended a qualifying offer to NO!!!! if he signs a 4 year $60 million contract and the Twins have to give up a draft pick because of a qualifying offer.

The devil is in the details, as they say.

#7 James

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:26 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.


You don't know that for sure. I'm sure he'd like to be one, but nothing is certain. That's the same thing as saying that Josh Johnson will be a Twins.

Lincecum is definitely going get a QO, so any other team is going to have to give up a pick. Seattle's first round pick is protected, but they may value it quite a bit. The Twins are on record as saying "they're not married" to their second round pick.

I'm not saying this means the Twins will sign him, but it's way too early to say he will be with any one team.

If he does end up being a Mariner though, I will buy you a beer.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#8 Kwak

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:45 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.

#9 James

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:48 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.

That was probably complaining about the particular draft. Not all draft classes are equal. The 2014 draft class is supposed to be pretty deep.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#10 cmb0252

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:49 PM

You only make a move for Lincy if he is a secondary move. This isn't the Lincy who won two Cy Young's. Not even close.

#11 twinsfan34

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:54 PM

Yes.

But he will be a Seattle Mariner.


Shane,

You got a hunch or an inside scoop?

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:57 PM

Second Round Pick?--I recall the Twins complaining that they couldn't find real talent at 20th overall--so a 2nd Rounder should be expendable.


No kidding. I could be convinced, but I just don't think Lincecum is worth it anymore. I can't see him getting more than 2 years, especially from the Twins. So then is two years of Lincecum, one of which will almost certainly be another uncompetitve year, be worth the 2nd round pick? Maybe, though it is a deep draft with a ton of hard throwing HS kids.

#13 twinsfan34

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:58 PM

I certainly wouldn't mind. But that comes with many caveats. There are some players for whom it is extremely hard to predict what their price will be in FA. Josh Johnson also comes to mind. Will they receive a qualifying offer? Are they looking/receiving a 1 year make good deal or will they end up signing a long term and higher money offer?

So my answer ranges anywhere from YES!!!! if he signs a 1 year make good offer and isn't extended a qualifying offer to NO!!!! if he signs a 4 year $60 million contract and the Twins have to give up a draft pick because of a qualifying offer.

The devil is in the details, as they say.


I'm on board with this.

Sign (risk?) a 1-2 yr $4-6M deal on Josh Joshson. Maybe an incentive laden deal that pushes it over $10M annually, with a team option. MN guy comes home would be a great story. He still struck out over 9 per 9 IP. Seems like a command issue on top of the health issue than lack of 'stuff' still left.

I'd be comfortable going as high as $7-8M for Lincecum 2 year deal.

Qualifying offer extended - not worth it. That means $13M+ salary and loss of 2nd RD pick.

#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 02:58 PM

Shane,

You got a hunch or an inside scoop?


I'd assume he has MLBTR bookmarked. It summerizes and links to all kinds of articles.

#15 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:01 PM

I'm on board with this.

I'd be comfortable going as high as $7-8M for Lincecum 2 year deal.

Qualifying offer extended - not worth it. That means $13M+ salary and loss of 2nd RD pick.


The qualifying offer will be worth $14.1 million. A 2 year deal at $7-8 million would make no sense to Lincecum. You'd need to double that to get considered. 2 for $24-28M is more like it.

#16 D. Hocking

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:19 PM

You only make a move for Lincy if he is a secondary move. This isn't the Lincy who won two Cy Young's. Not even close.


True -- although with your post we know what Gardy's nickname for him will be if we do end up getting him.

#17 beckmt

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:28 PM

If the Twins do not win Tanaka, I would say go for it. Money needs to be spent to make a splash and Twins need more than 1 new high level starter.

#18 ThePuck

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 03:36 PM

Shane,

You got a hunch or an inside scoop?


My guess it's a joke based on the fact that Washington is one of two states where pot is legal and Lincecum is known to take the occasional hit :-)
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#19 LimestoneBaggy

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:03 PM

I need some help on this one. His numbers are down (except for a decent xFIP), and his velocity has been steadily decreasing. I really don't follow Tim or the Giants. What am I missing as giving up a second round draft pick (and I agree with a two for 24-28M) for what appears to me to be a 4-5 guy?
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#20 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 October 2013 - 04:22 PM

My guess it's a joke based on the fact that Washington is one of two states where pot is legal and Lincecum is known to take the occasional hit :-)


It's actually a combination of that (haha!) and that is roughly where he is from, I believe. It also is just a team that makes sense.