Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Article: TwinsDaily Video: How Much Pitching Can The Twins Afford?

  • Please log in to reply
28 replies to this topic

#1 John Bonnes

John Bonnes

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 5,133 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 07:00 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...he-Twins-Afford

#2 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 2,404 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 07:32 PM

That was really cool.

#3 Kwak

Kwak

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,699 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 07:57 PM

BB players are like other collectibles/investments--buy quality.

#4 Trevor0333

Trevor0333

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 348 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 08:07 PM

I'd like to think they can atleast sign a guy like Colby Lewis & trade for a flier on Brett Anderson.

#5 Jim H

Jim H

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 439 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 08:15 PM

What I got out of this summary is that of all the free agent pitchers signed last year Correia was among the top six. This despite the fact that at least a dozen of these guys got more money per year than he did. This tends to highlight the problem with free agents. Most really aren't very good, whether it is injuries, age or other reasons. But because everyone needs pitchers GM's are willing to gamble money and years even though good results aren't all that likely.

The best results for the money, were Colon and Liriano and even Liriano had a 2 year offer for $7 mil a year till he hurt himself over the winter. It almost looks like you have just as good a chance of getting a good pitcher(if you do your research and get lucky) of digging around in the bargain bin as spending $10 mil a year on multiple year contracts for "2nd tier" free agents.

#6 Seth Stohs

Seth Stohs

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 9,377 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 09:09 PM

What I got out of this summary is that of all the free agent pitchers signed last year Correia was among the top six. This despite the fact that at least a dozen of these guys got more money per year than he did. This tends to highlight the problem with free agents. Most really aren't very good, whether it is injuries, age or other reasons. But because everyone needs pitchers GM's are willing to gamble money and years even though good results aren't all that likely.

The best results for the money, were Colon and Liriano and even Liriano had a 2 year offer for $7 mil a year till he hurt himself over the winter. It almost looks like you have just as good a chance of getting a good pitcher(if you do your research and get lucky) of digging around in the bargain bin as spending $10 mil a year on multiple year contracts for "2nd tier" free agents.


I agree.. Free agency isn't about signing talent. It's about getting lucky and hoping the players don't age quickly.

#7 Nick Nelson

Nick Nelson

    Owner

  • Administrators
  • 2,265 posts

Posted 17 October 2013 - 11:16 PM

The best results for the money, were Colon and Liriano and even Liriano had a 2 year offer for $7 mil a year till he hurt himself over the winter. It almost looks like you have just as good a chance of getting a good pitcher(if you do your research and get lucky) of digging around in the bargain bin as spending $10 mil a year on multiple year contracts for "2nd tier" free agents.


That's true to an extent, but the more expensive guys are more expensive for a reason. They are more highly sought. Players get paid based on production, and right now the Twins could stand to add some guys that have proven they can produce.

#8 Twins Daily Admin

Twins Daily Admin

    Administrator

  • Administrators
  • 202 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 12:47 AM

What I got out of this summary is that of all the free agent pitchers signed last year Correia was among the top six. This despite the fact that at least a dozen of these guys got more money per year than he did. This tends to highlight the problem with free agents. Most really aren't very good, whether it is injuries, age or other reasons. But because everyone needs pitchers GM's are willing to gamble money and years even though good results aren't all that likely.

The best results for the money, were Colon and Liriano and even Liriano had a 2 year offer for $7 mil a year till he hurt himself over the winter. It almost looks like you have just as good a chance of getting a good pitcher(if you do your research and get lucky) of digging around in the bargain bin as spending $10 mil a year on multiple year contracts for "2nd tier" free agents.


i'm pretty sure this is overstated a bit. Anyone care to do an analysis of the average ERA & IP for greinke vs 8-figure guys vs the rest?

#9 ChiTownTwinsFan

ChiTownTwinsFan

    Moderation in all things ...

  • Twins Mods
  • 8,563 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 07:04 AM

lol ,,, Little Sisters of the Poor?

#10 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 07:30 AM

Clever video. I like it.

Understanding that it's an overgeneralization, it just seems to me that the FA pitching market has become populated by two groups: 1) the superstars getting perhaps their one career opportunity to really cash in by hitting the market, and 2) pitchers with enough flaws that their current team did not see them as worthy of being retained by offering a fair multi-year deal.

The group in between, reliable, productive starting pitchers, simply is not reaching the market because teams are locking those guys up with extensions as soon as they demonstrate their quality.

Maybe the Offseason GM Handbook will demonstrate that I'm wrong.

#11 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,021 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:03 AM

Good stuff, but for once I'd prefer this team go after quality not quantity.

I'm curious though, by all accounts the Twins were below budget this past year, so where is the $30 million budget coming from? To get back to the expected Target Field payroll, they should have over $40 million to spend should they so choose. Not that they are likely to.

#12 Boom Boom

Boom Boom

    Hydraulic Choppers

  • Members
  • 1,342 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:39 AM

Regardless of how much the Twins have to spend, there's a finite number of pitchers on the market. I suspect that the Twins will try to sign a 2nd tier pitcher and add a couple more lottery tickets.

#13 Siehbiscuit

Siehbiscuit

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 330 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:43 AM

So considering that FA is a crapshoot, outside of the elite guys, should the Twins go after 3-5 guys in the bargain bin and see who turns out to be our Liriano or Feldman? Or should we go all in on a Tanaka, Garza or Santana?

#14 Joe A. Preusser

Joe A. Preusser

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 776 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 08:56 AM

So considering that FA is a crapshoot, outside of the elite guys, should the Twins go after 3-5 guys in the bargain bin and see who turns out to be our Liriano or Feldman? Or should we go all in on a Tanaka, Garza or Santana?


I can get on board with about anyone other than Garza.

#15 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,021 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 09:04 AM

So considering that FA is a crapshoot, outside of the elite guys, should the Twins go after 3-5 guys in the bargain bin and see who turns out to be our Liriano or Feldman? Or should we go all in on a Tanaka, Garza or Santana?


The Twins have plenty of budget and plenty of rotation spots to fill, they can go do both.

#16 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 4,712 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 10:11 AM

That was cool. Nice presentation.

#17 Oldgoat_MN

Oldgoat_MN

    Afraid my optimism will damage me somehow

  • Members
  • 714 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 10:24 AM

Tanaka and Kazmir.
Maybe Josh Johnson if the price isn't too steep, perhaps heavy on incentives for innings pitched.

That would eat up that $40 million pretty quick, but we'd have a chance to win some games next year if an offense shows up.

I'm on a whiskey diet. I've lost 3 days already.


#18 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 976 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 11:50 AM

Would prefer Johnson and Lincecum(I know he will have a qualifying offer), but the Twins need quality(Tanaka would be fine also and one lottery pick)

#19 Sconnie

Sconnie

    Tatertots R good

  • Members
  • 1,704 posts
  • LocationNW Wisconsin

Posted 18 October 2013 - 12:02 PM

Very cool presentation, thanks John.

Going after the bargain bin doesn't significantly improve the rotation over what the Twins had last season. I'm with Old Goat, 40 mil has the potential to buy a competetive ball club, but status quo buys the more of the same.

#20 Oxtung

Oxtung

    I don't skinny dip. I chunky dunk.

  • Members
  • 1,552 posts

Posted 18 October 2013 - 12:09 PM

First off pretty cool video.

I think you've made an error though in your choice of words. You said "The Twins could have up to $25-$30 million dollars to spend...." That is just not true. They will have at a minimum that much. You also have to consider that they will be recieving another $25-$30 million in additional revenue via MLB. Then, as someone stated above they weren't at their limit last season either. Forbes estimated their 2012 revenue (2013 isn't out yet that I know of) at $214 million. That likely decreased a bit in 2013 but if you use the Twins 52% rule the payroll could have been as high as perhaps $100 million in 2013. When you add it all up I think it would be more accurate to say the Twins could have up to $70 million dollars. It obviously depends on where their revenue really stands at and how the Twins handle the new money being distributed this season, but when you're using the words "up to" you're talking about the most money a team can spend and any way you cut it that will be more than $25-$30 million.

There were eleven FA starting pitchers signed for the 2013 season that qualified for the ERA title and posted better ERA's than Correia. Five posted sub-3.00 ERA's and another three of those posted sub-3.50 ERA's. R.A. Dickey had an ERA almost identical to Correia's.

Failure certainly happened and when it did it came in 3 varieties. Just poor pitching, Dempster, Haren, Jackson, Blanton, Pelfrey and Saunders fall into this catagory; players with injuries, Baker, McCarthy, Marcum, Marquis; and fliers that didn't succeed like Erik Bedard, Derek Lowe, Roy Oswalt, Rich Harden, etc...