First off, good for Berardino for going with a well researched, stats heavy article.
Some of the luster wears off of Pelfrey when you realize that fangraph's WAR is based off of FIP. They are 2 sides of the same coin. FIP liked Pelfrey and accordingly so does fWAR.
The problem as I see it is that his ERA, tERA, ERA-/+, xFIP and SIERA all indicate that he was a bad pitcher in 2013. It gets worse when you realize that the strongest predictors of future performance are SIERA followed by xFIP.
Bingo. Furthermore, the reality for the pitching effectiveness in his ENTIRE CAREER, year-by-year, has been confirmed by horrible SIERA, xFIP, tERA....relative to good or
bad ERA numbers. This result for Pelfrey in 2013 was entirely predictable, before
the "luster" was painted on the signing originally, especially coming off of TJ.....and was forecasted by many on Twins Daily.
Edited by jokin, 17 October 2013 - 02:24 PM.