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Berardino on Pelfrey

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#1 JB_Iowa

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 11:26 AM

Minnesota Twinsights: What's a fair offer for Mike Pelfrey? » Twins Now


Most interesting to me is his reference to a lot of advanced stats (of course, I still have to dig through them for interpretation).

Second thing I recall is that the most vocal criticisms of the Pelfrey contract last off-season seemed to be about the lack of an option for 2014.

Edited by JB_Iowa, 17 October 2013 - 11:32 AM.
typo


#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 11:30 AM

I expect he'll be back. I'd be ok with a 2 year deal or 1 + option. We had something like 8 pitchers make 10+ starts last year and 9 the year before. They'll need arms.

#3 JB_Iowa

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 11:35 AM

I expect he'll be back. I'd be ok with a 2 year deal or 1 + option. We had something like 8 pitchers make 10+ starts last year and 9 the year before. They'll need arms.


I think the issues people will have will have more to do with whether or not he is the "centerpiece" of off-season acquisitions than with the acquisition itself.

There are a lot of hopeful things in his stats and I do think that's part of what people anticipated when he was signed and why they were disappointed that there wasn't an option. If I remember correctly (not going to look it up), he is a Boras client so I'm sure that played into it.

#4 Oxtung

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 01:55 PM

First off, good for Berardino for going with a well researched, stats heavy article.

Some of the luster wears off of Pelfrey when you realize that fangraph's WAR is based off of FIP. They are 2 sides of the same coin. FIP liked Pelfrey and accordingly so does fWAR.

The problem as I see it is that his ERA, tERA, ERA-/+, xFIP and SIERA all indicate that he was a bad pitcher in 2013. It gets worse when you realize that the strongest predictors of future performance are SIERA followed by xFIP.

#5 Oxtung

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:10 PM

If you want to dive a little deeper into Pelfrey's stats you find that WPA, WPA/LI and RE24 were all negative. Fangraph's valued his four-seamer, sinker, spliter, slider and curveball as below average based on data gathered by Pitch f/x. In the past his four-seamer has always been an above average pitch (except 2009) and some of those seasons it has been well above average. Perhaps the most damning bit of evidence is that his swinging strike rate was the worst of his career, which was not good to begin with, while both his in-zone and out-of-zone contact rates were at career highs.

#6 Badsmerf

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:16 PM

I've already accepted that Pelfrey is coming back. I'm over it. As long as he isn't the big FA boost to the rotation, whatever.
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#7 ThePuck

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:18 PM

If you want to dive a little deeper into Pelfrey's stats you find that WPA, WPA/LI and RE24 were all negative. Fangraph's valued his four-seamer, sinker, spliter, slider and curveball as below average based on data gathered by Pitch f/x. In the past his four-seamer has always been an above average pitch (except 2009) and some of those seasons it has been well above average. Perhaps the most damning bit of evidence is that his swinging strike rate was the worst of his career, which was not good to begin with, while both his in-zone and out-of-zone contact rates were at career highs.


He didn't even pass the basic eye test...he was just bad.

One question: Besides the fact already stated, that xFIP and Sierra are a better indicator of future success, since he had such a big gap between ERA and FIP, doesn't that show how dependent he is on the help of the defense?

And followup to that question, if he is that dependent on defense, how should we expect different results next year? There's no foreseeable improvement on the defensive front going into next season, is there?
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#8 jokin

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:21 PM

First off, good for Berardino for going with a well researched, stats heavy article.

Some of the luster wears off of Pelfrey when you realize that fangraph's WAR is based off of FIP. They are 2 sides of the same coin. FIP liked Pelfrey and accordingly so does fWAR.

The problem as I see it is that his ERA, tERA, ERA-/+, xFIP and SIERA all indicate that he was a bad pitcher in 2013. It gets worse when you realize that the strongest predictors of future performance are SIERA followed by xFIP.


Bingo. Furthermore, the reality for the pitching effectiveness in his ENTIRE CAREER, year-by-year, has been confirmed by horrible SIERA, xFIP, tERA....relative to good or bad ERA numbers. This result for Pelfrey in 2013 was entirely predictable, before the "luster" was painted on the signing originally, especially coming off of TJ.....and was forecasted by many on Twins Daily.

Edited by jokin, 17 October 2013 - 02:24 PM.


#9 Nick Nelson

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:23 PM

I guess I could accept Pelfrey returning if they also acquired 2 superior arms. But I really can't stand watching the guy pitch. On top of the fact that he's not very good, he works slower than molasses and needs like 20 pitches to get through every inning. IMO, the Twins need to move away from the type of hurler and start targeting fast workers.

#10 jokin

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:27 PM

I guess I could accept Pelfrey returning if they also acquired 2 superior arms. But I really can't stand watching the guy pitch. On top of the fact that he's not very good, he works slower than molasses and needs like 20 pitches to get through every inning. IMO, the Twins need to move away from the type of hurler and start targeting fast workers.


How about hiring Jim Kaat to work with the starters on employing the "hurry-up", quick pitch attack? It kept him in the League about 10 years longer than he should have after his injuries and his arm aging.

#11 Kwak

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 02:46 PM

Pelfrey is a thrower--a one-pitch-pitcher (2-seam fastball). He really can't strike batters out with any consistency, all he can do is feed them pitches to hit and hope that they mi**** them. Of course he's willing to re-sign. The competition for his services will be weak.

#12 JB_Iowa

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:13 PM

Thanks, Oxtung and others for some explanation of the stats. Hoping others will add a little more to the understanding.

#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:13 PM

Mike Pelfrey's ERA+ stats (from BR) in seasons where he threw more than 150 innings:

2008: 113 (the year of promise)
2009: 81 (the year of collapse)
2010: 107 (the year of resurgence, aka the last good year)
2011: 78 (collapse)
2013: 78 (repetition of badness, except in the eyes of some in the Twins organization and some Twins fans)

Keep the GM, keep the manager, keep the pitching coach . . . might as well also keep all of the aging below average pitchers as well! Status quo worship.

#14 John Bonnes

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:17 PM

I hate the idea of giving him a multi-year deal. That would make me angry.

As for one year, I just don't see any point to it, not for this team. If the Twins were looking to fill out the 4th spot in their rotation, and were strapped with just a few million to spend this offseason, sure, try and get that done early. But this team is the exact opposite of that.

#15 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:17 PM

I guess I could accept Pelfrey returning if they also acquired 2 superior arms. But I really can't stand watching the guy pitch. On top of the fact that he's not very good, he works slower than molasses and needs like 20 pitches to get through every inning. IMO, the Twins need to move away from the type of hurler and start targeting fast workers.


And yes this is definitely flavoring my perspective too. I saw a disproportionate number of Pelfrey starts vs. the other starters this year due to something (day games, Monday night games, etc. as in agreement with my mlbtv time vs. work). It's just bad to watch 90+ pitches in five innings every time and severe deliberation between pitches on top of it.

#16 Thrylos

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:18 PM

I like Pelfrey (and his potential) probably more than any starting pitcher the Twins trotted out there last season whose last name is not Gibson.

That said, he is at best a number 3 at average a number 4. I will be ok with him re-signing with the Twins if the Twins somehow got rid of Correia and Diamond and those 2 are not in the rotation as well. Pelfrey as a number 4 sounds good to me. Nothing more than that.
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#17 raindog

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:25 PM

I guess I could accept Pelfrey returning if they also acquired 2 superior arms. But I really can't stand watching the guy pitch. On top of the fact that he's not very good, he works slower than molasses and needs like 20 pitches to get through every inning. IMO, the Twins need to move away from the type of hurler and start targeting fast workers.

This. It's freakin torture to watch the guy lick his hands and take 20+ seconds between each pitch.

It's almost guaranteed he'll be back after hearing Terry Ryan talk about him with Phil Mackey. He loves it in Minnesota, the Twins overvalue him, and they have plenty of money to spend. Sigh.

#18 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:32 PM

I like Pelfrey (and his potential) probably more than any starting pitcher the Twins trotted out there last season whose last name is not Gibson.

That said, he is at best a number 3 at average a number 4. I will be ok with him re-signing with the Twins if the Twins somehow got rid of Correia and Diamond and those 2 are not in the rotation as well. Pelfrey as a number 4 sounds good to me. Nothing more than that.


It isn't clear how one can favor Pelfrey over Correia. Deduno also pitched . . .

And 2014 and 2015 there are going to be better guys to trot out there from within the system. I have more faith, even, in Logan Darnell than Mike Pelfrey. And certainly so at 1/10th the cost.

#19 Shane Wahl

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:34 PM

This. It's freakin torture to watch the guy lick his hands and take 20+ seconds between each pitch.

It's almost guaranteed he'll be back after hearing Terry Ryan talk about him with Phil Mackey. He loves it in Minnesota, the Twins overvalue him, and they have plenty of money to spend. Sigh.


Same way with Doumit. This organization is a sucker for guys who declare there love for the team even though they aren't any good as baseball players.

#20 jokin

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 03:52 PM

Mike Pelfrey's ERA+ stats (from BR) in seasons where he threw more than 150 innings:

2008: 113 (the year of promise)
2009: 81 (the year of collapse)
2010: 107 (the year of resurgence, aka the last good year)
2011: 78 (collapse)
2013: 78 (repetition of badness, except in the eyes of some in the Twins organization and some Twins fans)

Keep the GM, keep the manager, keep the pitching coach . . . might as well also keep all of the aging below average pitchers as well! Status quo worship.


Of his 2 best years, the present performance masked a troubling future and the reality of the streaky, lucky and most importantly, consistent nature of Pelfrey's (lack of) pitching ability:

2008: ERA 3.72 xFIP 4.45 SIERA 4.61
2010: ERA 3.66 xFIP 4.31 SIERA 4.61

So who's the real Mike Pelfrey? Glad you asked:

Career numbers: ERA 4.48 xFIP 4.50 SIERA 4.68

Edited by jokin, 17 October 2013 - 04:12 PM.