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Article: Five Offseason Predictions

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#21 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:37 AM

1- I'm going to be the outlier here and say that the posting will be won in the $40M range. The Rangers were the only team over $30M on Darvish. I think most teams will be in the $30-40 range and the Twins will are desparate and his age is the reason why. Ryan has always been against paying for a pitchers past. Here's a way to improve the roster with a still developing young pitcher. Twins will be aggressive and WIN.

2. The Twins will move Doumit this off-season, but NOT sign a Redmond or Molina-type defensive-minded catcher that can help the young catchers develop (in-game pitch calling, old veteran tips and tricks). The think that is what Steinbach is there for. Mauer will catch 100-120 games, Hermann 20-30 and Pinto (starts in AAA) will catch 20-30 as well.

3. True. The contract will be Tanaka's. A 5-year/55M deal.

4. Sano will start the year at AAA and be called up in mid-June. The Twins are done with the Plouffe experiment at 3B and will pick up Mark Reynolds on a cheap 1 year deal to hold the fort and provide some HR power.

5. Duensing will be retained and will prove to be a valuable part of the bullpen.

#22 nicksaviking

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:39 AM

My bold and rediculous prediction:

The Yankees, who will be intent on re-siging Cano and aiming to get Tanaka, will look to clear some money to fit under the luxery tax. They work out a deal to trade CC Sabathia to the Twins and eat $56 million of the $96 million still owed over the next four years. The Twins send two low to modest prospects, let's say Travis Harrison and Mason Melotakis, to the Yankees to complete the deal.

Sabathia then fails his physical and the offer is nixed leaving the Twins without the pitcher and the Yankees over the luxery tax threshold.

#23 whosafraidofluigirussolo

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:42 AM

Yes, if the new bidding process takes place, the Twins will have zero chance of ever signing any big name Asian player. It will be big markets, or big Asian communities. St. Peter, the Pohlad's or whoever is representing the team in these kind of league-wide discusions better be strenuously arguing against this process.


I think you're over-simplifying the factors that can go into a player's decision where to sign. You can't completely discount that an appeal to being the pioneer Asian star to play in a city like Minneapolis might draw some player. Or that the Twins might simply offer the nicest contract after winning one of the top three posting bids. I'm sure there'll be cases where your reasons are right.

#24 drivlikejehu

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 11:56 AM

#1 - This is technically satisified even if they put in a lowball bid, which really isn't any different from not bidding at all (except for PR purposes). So I don't think this is much of a prediction.

#2 - This is the closest one to 50/50 I think. Signing a veteran backup is basically pointless but is Twins-like, so...

#3 - The bar is low, true, but I would bet against it. What free agent pitchers are (a) even vaguely realistic and (B) slated to get over $21MM?

#4 - I think there's almost no chance at all Sano starts the season with the Twins, with injuries being a wild card.

#5 - The Twins seem to like Duensing and have plenty of payroll space, so I don't see why they would non-tender him.

#25 Heimer

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 02:45 PM

It's not the "twins way" but i hope they put their eggs in one basket and sign Tanaka no matter the cost. Rather than signing two FA pitchers in their thirties.

#26 Zarathustra

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 04:59 PM

1) I put this at 70 / 30 the Twins don't sign / sign Tanaka. Last year it would have been 90 / 10 and two years ago, 99 / 1 (the Nishi experience stings, in addition to deep-seeded organizational tendencies). But, although this isn't an apples to apples comparison to the Mauer signing, I suggest that a comparable tenor exists demanding this money be spent. Also, because the Twins have NEVER signed a top-flight pitcher to a sizable contract, the most effective way for TR and the Pohlads to demonstrate their sincere intolerance for what is taking place, knowing that starting pitching is and has long been now the team's greatest weakness, is to break precedent and do what it takes for Tanaka, damn the Yankees in the process.

2) Ok

3) Here is where if 1) doesn't come to pass, the Twins can still behave similarly to sway a disgruntled fan base. I put it at 70 / 30 that, should they NOT sign Tanaka, they DO sign a contract that surprises all of us, thought not necessarily with a FA pitcher. Remember, this team will be VERY cheap to field in a couple years as it is composed currently and is planned to be filled-in.

4) I'll plead partial ignorance, but can't they save potentially millions of dollars on the back end by holding Sano off for part of the year? If so, I foresee several post game questions asking when Sano is coming up being responded with phrases like, 'we don't want to rush' and 'he still has some things we'd like to see before we move him up' and 'the Major Leagues are a big step up, we want to make sure he's ready'. And, partial/total insincerity in the comments aside, I don't disagree with the decision. I don't want to see Sano walk in 2018 because he's too expensive. That's when we're going to the WS!

5) I'll take that bet, Nick.

Edited by Zarathustra, 16 October 2013 - 05:01 PM.
Added spaces between paragraphs so eyes don't hurt so bad.


#27 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 05:52 PM

Nick: I really enjoy reading these kinds of articles, and I admire the courage it takes to put yourself out there with predictions that can be dredged up later and waved around when they don't prove true. Your example has inspired me...what follows are five predictions from the Chief.

1. Despite overall attendance numbers continuing their alarming downward trend, I predict there will be at least one sold out, SRO crowd at TF in 2014. My early analysis of weather trends, vacation bookings, historical patterns and airline reservations makes me think July is the most likely month for this to occur.

2. Desperate to revamp the starting rotation, TR will not bring back more than one 2013 full time starter* to the 2014 team.

3. Despite public pressure to add power by filling first base with a free agent and popular former Twin, TR will not sign Kent Hrbek.

4. TR will stubbornly refuse to trade up or down in the June draft, sticking with his one first round pick, right where it's at.

5. Torii Hunter will return to TF in 2014.

*made 30 or more starts for the Twins in 2013

And there you have it. Go ahead folks, tear them apart. Do your worst, but I'm sticking to these.

Edited by USAFChief, 16 October 2013 - 05:53 PM.
Toned down the wilder predictions to be a bit more realistic


#28 kab21

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 06:39 PM

1) Agree but I think they are prepared to spend a lot more than people think but not as much as other teams.

2) I could see this happening but I'm indifferent to it.

3) I think we will see a 50M contract on a solid but not really good player

4) I'm already dreading the epic Sano opening day battles but I don't think there is any chance he is on the opening day roster.

5) I really hope that the Twins don't feel the need to get rid of an effective RP'er because of 2M. There's close to 50M available and it's not going to be spent anyway. Not surprisingly Duensing's numbers improved last year since he hasn't been jerked back and forth between the rotation and bullpen.

#29 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 06:50 PM

1. Tanaka signs elsewhere. No one will know if the Twins placed a bid or for how much. Someone will conclude that Tanaka signing elsewhere was due to Twins Front Office apathy or frugality.

2. Welcome Back A.J. Pierzynski. Pinto makes the club out of ST... Mauer plays 1B Fulltime. Doumit is dangled until someone agrees to take him. He will DH or RF the majority of his playing time.

3. No doubt... It will be a pitcher.

4. Sano will appear when Plouffe gets hurt of is benched for the final time. Terry Ryan will be hoping that Plouffe stays healthy until Super Two Day. Whenever that is.

5. Duensing stays. The Twins will loyally pay it and Duensing will be just fine.

Now the Ad Ons:

6. Pierzynski, Pinto, Plouffe, Parmelee and Presley will have great 2014 Seasons. Pelfrey resigns and has a great 2014... So do Perkins and Pressly... Unfortunately... Anyone whose last name doesn't start with a P... Does not have a good year.

7. A.J. Pierzynski will admonish Michael Tonkin for spelling Golf Gulf.

8. Sometime during 2014... Chris Colabello will be called out for stepping out of the batters box and stepping on third base while swinging.

9. Encouraged by the rapid Growth of Kohl Stewart... The Twins draft another College QB with the 5th pick overall. Unfortunately Teddy Bridgewater signs with the Jaguars instead.

10. The Twins Caravan will make its final voyage after driving into Lake Bemidji after knocking over Paul Bunyan in a bad case of distracted driving... Babe the Blue Ox is unharmed but is admonished by A.J. Pierzynski for not protecting Paul and just standing there like some big dumb Ox.

Edited by Riverbrian, 16 October 2013 - 06:53 PM.

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#30 Kwak

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:00 PM

But can we really believe the posters who make these predictions without them having an inside informant?

#31 Oxtung

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:40 PM

10. The Twins Caravan will make its final voyage after driving into Lake Bemidji after knocking over Paul Bunyan in a bad case of distracted driving... Babe the Blue Ox is unharmed but is admonished by A.J. Pierzynski for not protecting Paul and just standing there like some big dumb Ox.


Just what are you trying to imply here RB?!?;)

#32 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:48 PM

Just what are you trying to imply here RB?!?;)


I was just trying to come up with a scenerio where A.J. Yells at a big blue statue. It isn't as easy as it seems. ;)

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#33 Oxtung

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 07:58 PM

I was just trying to come up with a scenerio where A.J. Yells at a big blue statue. It isn't as easy as it seems. ;)


I'm going on record that I feel very uncomfortable with the direction this conversation has taken. It seems very derogatory towards all Oxen. I mean from my perspective Babe the Blue Ox, a distant cousin of mine by the way, was the smart one. I mean he is still standing after all right?

#34 Riverbrian

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 08:01 PM

I'm going on record that I feel very uncomfortable with the direction this conversation has taken. It seems very derogatory towards all Oxen. I mean from my perspective Babe the Blue Ox, a distant cousin of mine by the way, was the smart one. I mean he is still standing after all right?


Cousin Babe?

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#35 stringer bell

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:16 PM

1. Does anyone think that the Twins will be more hesitant to bring in a Japanese player after the spectacular failure of Nishioka? 2. This will depend on Mauer. If he is even a half-time catcher, spending on a veteran catcher doesn't make much sense. If Mauer is the Twins' new first baseman, I can see signing one of several defense-first guys. 3. I would hope Ryan goes above 3-21 for a pitcher. I'm saying a 51+% chance that he will. 4. Sano starts in Rochester and stays at least until mid-April. If he is great and Plouffe is.....well Plouffe-like, the Twins make the change before Sano is denied super-2. 5. Duensing stays. He's a capable pitcher and even at $2.5M, he doesn't drag down the Twins' payroll much and BTW, he could be a decent trade chip at the deadline.

#36 Nick Nelson

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:23 PM

1. Does anyone think that the Twins will be more hesitant to bring in a Japanese player after the spectacular failure of Nishioka?

Doesn't really relate. First of all, the Twins got bit because they went after a low-grade talent. His price reflected that and you'd have to think they're aware. Second, Nishioka is a position player, not a pitcher. The example that would seemingly be more relevant is Iwakuma, whom they pursued but failed to acquire when he first posted. Like many Japanese pitchers that have transitioned to the majors in recent years, Iwakuma has been quite successful.

#37 Carole Keller

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Posted 16 October 2013 - 10:25 PM

10. The Twins Caravan will make its final voyage after driving into Lake Bemidji after knocking over Paul Bunyan in a bad case of distracted driving... Babe the Blue Ox is unharmed but is admonished by A.J. Pierzynski for not protecting Paul and just standing there like some big dumb Ox.


Priceless!
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Nevertheless, she persisted. Time’s up.

#38 Oxtung

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 12:27 AM

2. This will depend on Mauer. If he is even a half-time catcher, spending on a veteran catcher doesn't make much sense. If Mauer is the Twins' new first baseman, I can see signing one of several defense-first guys.


How will the Twins know before spring training what Mauer's condition will be? It seems to me they'll have to make this decision without really know how Mauer will handle baseball, either behind the plate or at 1B.

#39 Oxtung

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 12:28 AM

Cousin Babe?


Yup, the bastard doesn't even show up to family reunions, he's too busy posing out there by the road. Heaven forbid that Paul has to stand by himself for a weekend. Who would the tourists take pictures of then?!?

#40 stringer bell

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Posted 17 October 2013 - 05:46 AM

Here are my 5 predictions for the 2014 Twins: 1) The Twins sign a free agent bat for more than the contract that they gave Willingham. 2) Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Alex Meyer, and Trevor May make their major league debuts with the Twins. 3) Trevor Plouffe loses his job to Sano, but finishes the season with more PAs, HRs, and a higher OPS than Sano, and is traded at least by the August 31 waiver deadline. 4) One of Scott Diamond, Vance Worley (ineffectiveness) or Samuel Deduno (injury) bounces back to lead the Twins in either victories or ERA. 5) Aaron Hicks returns to the Twins by midseason and provides major league average production from center field.