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Sickels: Brian Dozier: Breakthrough???

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 11:19 AM

Brian Dozier: Breakthrough? - Minor League Ball

John Sickels at Minor League Ball wrote a quick blog on Brian Dozier, wondering if he had a breakthrough season and will be able to do it again.

I rarely comment there, but I did put the following:

[FONT=Gotham Narrow SSm A]The thing I’m most encouraged about is that in late May, something clicked. He made a mechanical change and it worked. After May 27th, he hit .259/.335/.461 (.796) with 30 doubles, 2 triples and 17 home runs.

[/FONT]
[FONT=Gotham Narrow SSm A]I think that .750-800 [/FONT][FONT=Gotham Narrow SSm A]OPS[/FONT][FONT=Gotham Narrow SSm A] is realistic for Dozier. Is that all-star caliber, not quite, but it’s a guy that you can count on for years. Brian Dozier the person is the kind of guy that you want around. If he’s putting up these numbers, he can be a guy that will fit into the roster perfectly.[/FONT]


#2 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:09 PM

I'd hesitate to say .800 is in his range -- gotta use a very selective endpoint to get close to that, and he isn't exactly young. Looks his new approach traded some AVG and Ks to maintain/improve his minor league walk rate and SLG.

Still, his .726 OPS overall was good for a 100 OPS+. That's not bad at all from a solid defensive 2B (or dare I say, SS).

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:11 PM

Hoo boy, I remember the all-out war that ensued on BYTO when I suggested that Dozier was capable of being an ".800 OPS, plus-glove defender" up the middle player.

I didn't even predict it... I just said he was capable of doing it and there was a near-meltdown on the board.

#4 ThePuck

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:13 PM

I've been a supporter of Dozier since 2011...I never doubted him even when he had his struggles last season.

Edited by ThePuck, 11 October 2013 - 12:20 PM.
wrong year

Just remember: You put the lime IN the coconut. Only THEN, can you drink it all up.

#5 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:15 PM

I'd hesitate to say .800 is in his range -- gotta use a very selective endpoint to get close to that, and he isn't exactly young. Looks his new approach traded some AVG and Ks to maintain/improve his minor league walk rate and SLG.

Still, his .726 OPS overall was good for a 100 OPS+. That's not bad at all from a solid defensive 2B (or dare I say, SS).


While it does appear that he has traded some average for power, I'm skeptical of a guy with his speed (not that he's speedy, just that he's not slow) continuing to post a BABIP under .280. I don't expect a huge upswing in BA but .010 or .015 points is certainly possible.

#6 drivlikejehu

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:44 PM

He hits flyballs - that brings down his BABIP but leads to homers. What worries me is that his HR/FB could drop because I'm not sure how good his raw power is.

Given his age and overall track record, I don't think Dozier can really be considered a long-term building block. I do like him as an average to moderately above-average 2B for the next several years.

#7 Physics Guy

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 01:09 PM

He hits flyballs - that brings down his BABIP but leads to homers. What worries me is that his HR/FB could drop because I'm not sure how good his raw power is.

Given his age and overall track record, I don't think Dozier can really be considered a long-term building block. I do like him as an average to moderately above-average 2B for the next several years.


I guess that depends on what you consider a building block. Is he a top player on a playoff team? No, he is not. Can he be a valuable starter for more than a couple of years? I think he is capable of that. He's clearly not at Knoblauch's level, but he appears to be a significant improvement over Lombardozzi and Rivas, two of the longer-serving second basemen during some of the better years for the Twins. Both Lombo and Rivas appear to have been regulars for at least three years. I give Dozier a good chance of doing better than that.

#8 Shane Wahl

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 04:29 PM

An average to above average second baseman in this organization post Castillo IS a building block!

#9 clutterheart

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 05:38 PM

Dozier is Ok. But I think long term Rosario is the guy to be excited about.

#10 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:08 PM

Brian Dozier: Breakthrough? - Minor League Ball

John Sickels at Minor League Ball wrote a quick blog on Brian Dozier, wondering if he had a breakthrough season and will be able to do it again.

I rarely comment there, but I did put the following:


He's sort of like Span in that I think he's a very good player, but only a fringe all-star that might make it once or twice. That's assuming we got the real deal.

#11 Don't Feed the Greed Guy

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:51 PM

Dozier, was quoted on the Twins Jumbotron that if he could have a drink with anybody it would be Jesus Christ:
Brian Dozier, Jesus Christ.jpg


So, here's a little prophecy, edited from the Gospel According to John, chapter 3:

"Dozier said, ‘I am not the [b future second baseman,’ but, ‘I have been sent ahead of Him.’ 29 He who has the bride is the bridegroom; but the friend of the bridegroom, who stands and hears him, rejoices greatly because of the bridegroom’s voice. So this joy of mine has been made full. 30 He must increase, but I must decrease.'"

He, of course, is Eddie Rosario. Sickels mentions scouts who clearly divined that Dozier could make it in the MLB as a utility infielder. Or, perhaps a super utility infielder with some pop in his bat. In two years this will be Brian Dozier's contribution, and that is my prophecy.

Amen.

#12 freshinthehouse

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Posted 12 October 2013 - 01:00 AM

I still say they should let him get some work in at SS, and hopefully this will lead to us having a Dozier/Rosario middle infield in 2015.
BYTO R.I.P.

#13 kab21

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Posted 12 October 2013 - 04:10 AM

Hoo boy, I remember the all-out war that ensued on BYTO when I suggested that Dozier was capable of being an ".800 OPS, plus-glove defender" up the middle player.

I didn't even predict it... I just said he was capable of doing it and there was a near-meltdown on the board.


Perhaps you didn't say it but I think the melt down occurred because there were a significant number of people that were making org plans with him as an MLB starter based on a one season breakout at age 24. He was intriguing and a possible starter but no guarantees. Rosario for example is a better prospect but he's also not a guarantee and people continue to make an issue out of Dozier/Rosario at 2B. Let that be an issue when it actually becomes an issue.

Of course the opposite is true when people completely write someone off after a bad a season like Dozier had in 2012.