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This years Revere/Span trade...

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#1 Trevor0333

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 03:51 AM

Last off season Ryan dipped his toes in the SP FA pool and found the water much too cold for his tight pockets. Pelfrey has been about as good as you could have expected an average at best SP coming back 10 months from TJ surgery. Correa wasn't nearly as bad as expected but still was at best a solid #5.

Not liking the pickings or the prices Ryan decided to move a surplus to fill a hole moving Revere & Span for Meyer & May. Meyer could likely earn a rotation spot out of Spring Training but May struggled repeating AA and there are whispers he could be destined for a bullpen setup/closer understudy.

Trade Brian Dozier for Braves LHP Sean Gilmartin.

With the same scenario very liely playing out again this year, who are the candidates to be moved for SP? on the MLB roster the first obvious choice is 2B Brian Dozier. He is under team control for a few years cheaply but is also already 27 by next opening day. The Braves are desperate for a 2B to replace the mightlity struggling & expensive Uggla. Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

The Braves Sean Gilmartin, a southpaw similar to Gibson in potential & stuff could be a fair value straight up. He is still just 23 and pitched in AAA last year.

Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.

Edited by Trevor0333, 11 October 2013 - 04:00 AM.


#2 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 07:57 AM

I'm personally not a fan of Gilmartin. I only assume he gets hype because he's a lefty with good control. He doesn't strike many batters out and gives up way too many hits and runs. Two years in a row he has struggled at AAA. From my perspective, I don't see any scenario where this guy turns into a legit starting pitcher.

#3 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:42 AM

If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.

#4 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:47 AM

I like the idea of Dozier to Atlanta but I'd aim higher than Gilmartin, whose upside is a good Nick Blackburn. Probably aim for Wood (might be a reliever), Sims (A ball) or maybe Cody Martin (numbers better than his stuff) and go from there. But it looks like the two sides could easily make some kind of trade and have done so before (Diamond/Bullock).

#5 mike wants wins

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:48 AM

If the Twins want to emulate the Braves, Cards, or As, they'd deal Dozier this offseason. I don't see it happening, though. I don't see a trade like last year's deals happening. Perkins would also be dealt, if you followed the A's.

Now, I'd do the opposite, I'd trade for David Price.....

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#6 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 08:56 AM

Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.


Harrison is a nice sleeper prospect, I like him, but he doesn't really have value right now. If he was on another team, he'd be the add on a rebuilding team would like to sneak in but he can't headline a real trade at this point.

Beachy had TJ surgery and then got hurt again. I don't think Atlanta would want to trade him while his value was that low.

Perkins is obviously the other trade chip the FO has, if it wants to cash it.

Other teams that could use an upgrade at second (just using fWAR as a quick and dirty value system) and might be going for it next year would be Toronto, A's, Nats and Royals. Nats might be committed to Rendon at second.

#7 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 10:04 AM

Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.


Span was traded just before his 29th birthday, was a lot more expensive than Dozier, and projected to provide similar value to Dozier's just-completed 2013 season (discounting Span's flukey high defensive numbers from 2012 a bit!).

Now, Span obviously had a longer track record, and thus there was more confidence in his projections going forward (although he did have some injury issues that Dozier has not yet had). But if scouts generally think Dozier's 2013 improvement will stick, he could fetch a top 100 prospect, no? Something better than Gilmartin, I would hope

That said, if the Twins think Dozier's improvement will stick, they should probably hold onto him unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Stockpiling pitching prospects is nice, but they do need SOME good players on this team! And counting on Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc. years ahead of time probably isn't the wisest path. (An aside: that's why free agency looks so attractive. It can get you good players without having to give up any players of your own.)

#8 ThePuck

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 10:19 AM

Span was traded just before his 29th birthday, was a lot more expensive than Dozier, and projected to provide similar value to Dozier's just-completed 2013 season (discounting Span's flukey high defensive numbers from 2012 a bit!).

Now, Span obviously had a longer track record, and thus there was more confidence in his projections going forward (although he did have some injury issues that Dozier has not yet had). But if scouts generally think Dozier's 2013 improvement will stick, he could fetch a top 100 prospect, no? Something better than Gilmartin, I would hope

That said, if the Twins think Dozier's improvement will stick, they should probably hold onto him unless they are overwhelmed by an offer. Stockpiling pitching prospects is nice, but they do need SOME good players on this team! And counting on Rosario, Sano, Buxton, etc. years ahead of time probably isn't the wisest path. (An aside: that's why free agency looks so attractive. It can get you good players without having to give up any players of your own.)


What was flukey about Span's defensive numbers last year? His UZR this year and 2011 were better than 2012 and 2010 and 2012 are pretty close. Are you just talking DRS?

Edited by ThePuck, 11 October 2013 - 10:28 AM.

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#9 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 10:28 AM

If the Twins are confident that Rosario can be the guy at 2B by mid-summer, I am all for maximizing on Dozier's value. Escobar can handle 2B for a while until Rosario comes up. Getting a solid to good pitcher for Dozier is a good get.


The way to maximize Dozier's value is to keep him for another season and cross your fingers.

Being above average for 2/3rds of a season is impressive but it's not enough to make another team offer up a player significant enough to make a difference.

#10 nicksaviking

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 11:00 AM

The way to maximize Dozier's value is to keep him for another season and cross your fingers.

Being above average for 2/3rds of a season is impressive but it's not enough to make another team offer up a player significant enough to make a difference.


I agree, though that has not been working in the Twins favor much recently. Hopefully Dozier is the exception, there definately is a high probability his AVG/OBP goes up. Of course it's just as likely his HR drop. If the power is legit though and his OBP gets back to his minor league levels, you're looking at a defensively solid 2B with a +.800 OPS under team control for four more years. That would fetch a pretty nice return I'd assume.

#11 ThePuck

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 11:18 AM

I agree, though that has not been working in the Twins favor much recently. Hopefully Dozier is the exception, there definately is a high probability his AVG/OBP goes up. Of course it's just as likely his HR drop. If the power is legit though and his OBP gets back to his minor league levels, you're looking at a defensively solid 2B with a +.800 OPS under team control for four more years. That would fetch a pretty nice return I'd assume.


Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.
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#12 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:05 PM

Or we could just keep Dozier and trade Rosario who may fetch more than Dozier.


A more likely scenario, I think. I really hate the idea of trading Rosario but if the front office is confident in Dozier going forward, Eddie has more value to other teams right now (for good or bad, that's just how these things shake out sometimes).

#13 spycake

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:15 PM

What was flukey about Span's defensive numbers last year? His UZR this year and 2011 were better than 2012 and 2010 and 2012 are pretty close. Are you just talking DRS?


I was just looking at B-Ref, so yeah, DRS. I guess prorating his 2011 numbers gets close to 2012 too -- I forgot he missed half of 2011.

#14 ThePuck

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 12:22 PM

I was just looking at B-Ref, so yeah, DRS. I guess prorating his 2011 numbers gets close to 2012 too -- I forgot he missed half of 2011.


IMO, he's been an under-rated defender for a few years now...I don't believe 2012 was flukey at all. Again, IMO.
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#15 Danchat

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 02:20 PM

I think it's not a bad idea to trade Dozier while he's hot. I don't think he'll be that great so if we can get a good pitching prospect for him pull the trigger. Rosario will be here in the summer ready to take over 2B. Until then.... Bernier?

#16 DJL44

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 02:28 PM

Trading second basemen for starting pitchers almost always works out for the team getting the pitcher. Second basemen are nearly as fungible as relief pitchers.

#17 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 03:34 PM

Yes, let's take the ONE legit MI this team has developed in the last 10-15 years and let's trade him.

If Rosario forces the issue then its a very good problem to have and you do something at that point.

#18 biggentleben

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 03:46 PM

I like the idea of Dozier to Atlanta but I'd aim higher than Gilmartin, whose upside is a good Nick Blackburn. Probably aim for Wood (might be a reliever), Sims (A ball) or maybe Cody Martin (numbers better than his stuff) and go from there. But it looks like the two sides could easily make some kind of trade and have done so before (Diamond/Bullock).


Of those, Martin is the only option, but no way you want to get Gilmartin right now. He is more than messed up right now in the head/windup/etc.
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#19 biggentleben

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 03:58 PM

Trade Brian Dozier for Braves LHP Sean Gilmartin.

With the same scenario very liely playing out again this year, who are the candidates to be moved for SP? on the MLB roster the first obvious choice is 2B Brian Dozier. He is under team control for a few years cheaply but is also already 27 by next opening day. The Braves are desperate for a 2B to replace the mightlity struggling & expensive Uggla. Given Dozier's age your not going to get a Alex Meyer.

The Braves Sean Gilmartin, a southpaw similar to Gibson in potential & stuff could be a fair value straight up. He is still just 23 and pitched in AAA last year.

Any other candidates others view could be moved for SP?

I could see Travis Harrison as a possibilty being blocked by uber prospect Miguel Sano at 3B. Maybe Brandon Beachy could be available if the Twins added a B level prospect or 2 to the deal.


Some points as a Braves writer and fan:

1. You don't want Gilmartin. Think a lefty Alex Wimmers at this point. He's messed up in his motion, in his release point, in his grips, in his footing, and in his head. He will have to be broken completely down and rebuilt to be of any value.

2. The Braves aren't desperate to replace Uggla. They have options on hand to replace him in the short-term. In fact, one of the more intriguing hitters in AFL for the Braves is a guy who may be their 2B in 2014, Tommy La Stella. They have depth at the position within their own system, so they aren't going to offer much of value.

3. Beachy is nearly untradeable. Unless the 3B thrown in the deal was actually Sano, Beachy wouldn't be mentioned, and as crazy as it sounds, you might still not get the front office to move Beachy at that point.

4. All that said, Dozier's bat/flexibility/contract could intrigue the Braves for someone like a Cody Martin, David Hale, Aaron Northcraft, or someone like that. They also have a grouping of guys like Omar Poveda who would be akin to Scott Diamond in pitchability, but not a ton of stuff.
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#20 Shane Wahl

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 04:10 PM

Until Rosario actually forces the issue, no decision needs to be made.

#21 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 05:32 PM

I think we should trade Buxton, Sano, and Rosario for prospects once they get good too while we're at it. We can just develop players for other teams. Seriously, at some point you have to start holding onto players. Trading Dozier makes NO sense at all because he's young, unproven in other's eyes, and plays an important defensive position. Sorry I have to say it that way, but I'm frustrated that once a player has value we want to kick them out. Dozier has a good chance to be our best 2B since Knoblauch. As for pitching, we're going to have to wait. Personally, I think you either pursue an elite pitching prospect or none at all. They're extremely risky and only the cream of the crop end up being the #1s, #2s, and #3s in the league. And most teams are not very keen on trading elite pitching prospects.

#22 Kwak

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 05:48 PM

;)...but if the Twins toss in Duensing...

#23 Trevor0333

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:32 PM

Good points on the Dozier/Span comparison, also I hadnt realized Gilmartin's star had fallen so. I knew the Braves had some intriguing 2b coming through the pipeline but did not think they were that mlb ready.

#24 Joe A. Preusser

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:35 PM

Trading second basemen for starting pitchers almost always works out for the team getting the pitcher. Second basemen are nearly as fungible as relief pitchers.


Was this sarcasm?

#25 Trevor0333

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:36 PM

I think we should trade Buxton, Sano, and Rosario for prospects once they get good too while we're at it. We can just develop players for other teams. Seriously, at some point you have to start holding onto players. Trading Dozier makes NO sense at all because he's young, unproven in other's eyes, and plays an important defensive position. Sorry I have to say it that way, but I'm frustrated that once a player has value we want to kick them out. Dozier has a good chance to be our best 2B since Knoblauch. As for pitching, we're going to have to wait. Personally, I think you either pursue an elite pitching prospect or none at all. They're extremely risky and only the cream of the crop end up being the #1s, #2s, and #3s in the league. And most teams are not very keen on trading elite pitching prospects.


I understand what you are saying, my thoughts on moving him are more in line with this team is still 2 years away from having a competent rotation. By that time dozier will be 30 and in the tail end of his arbitration years. Trading him to help stockpile the rotation options for 2014-2016 when these position players are breaking in is the best route if your not going to spend any money to augment the rotation other than Pelfrrey/Correa types.

I also believe both Rosario & Sano are ready to play next year at the mlb level.

#26 gunnarthor

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Posted 11 October 2013 - 06:38 PM

I think we should trade Buxton, Sano, and Rosario for prospects once they get good too while we're at it. We can just develop players for other teams. Seriously, at some point you have to start holding onto players. Trading Dozier makes NO sense at all because he's young, unproven in other's eyes, and plays an important defensive position. Sorry I have to say it that way, but I'm frustrated that once a player has value we want to kick them out. Dozier has a good chance to be our best 2B since Knoblauch. As for pitching, we're going to have to wait. Personally, I think you either pursue an elite pitching prospect or none at all. They're extremely risky and only the cream of the crop end up being the #1s, #2s, and #3s in the league. And most teams are not very keen on trading elite pitching prospects.


I don't think we should just give him away. But if they can upgrade pitching by bringing in a guy like Alex Wood (and I don't think Atlanta would do that) it makes sense with Rosario starting at AAA next year. But if the best we can get for him is an unproven #5 starter, then we should keep him.

#27 notoriousgod71

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Posted 13 October 2013 - 07:41 PM

Gilmartin is a typical Twins pitcher that everyone was terrified we'd take in the draft when he came out. It just makes so much sense since he's a mirror image of every other pitcher we have.

#28 Siehbiscuit

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 08:48 AM

Looking at this year's postseason, makes me think about what type of pitchers the Twins need to be targeting. Whether its the Tigers, RedSox, Dodgers or Cards, all of these rotations have numerous guys that can miss bats. If the pitchers we do not acquire cant miss bats, I don't want them! This organization has been down this road far too many times and it has failed. Our best two pitchers in the last decade have been Santana and Liriano. Both guys missed bats. Invest in high upside arms, knowing that many of them will flame out. But to still be playing in October, these types of arms need to be throughout the organization. No trading Dozier for Diamond 2.0!

#29 mike wants wins

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 08:50 AM

My theory on Dozier......

when you are AWFUL, you need to take more chances. Take a chance Rosario is ready at some point next year, and eal Dozier for a position you are short on.....like pitching, or a SS, or pitching, or maybe pitching, heck, I'd argue they need 1 more OFer while they wait on Buxton.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :)


#30 kab21

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Posted 14 October 2013 - 09:02 AM

My theory on Dozier......

when you are AWFUL, you need to take more chances. Take a chance Rosario is ready at some point next year, and eal Dozier for a position you are short on.....like pitching, or a SS, or pitching, or maybe pitching, heck, I'd argue they need 1 more OFer while they wait on Buxton.


I think they should deal Dozier for a young 2Bman that played SS in the minors and might be able to handle SS at the MLB.

I also think it would be criminal to trade someone like Dozier since they wouldn't be getting back a similarly young SS back (teams don't have a surplus of young SS's available) and there is very little hope for a starting SS coming up through the farm system for 2-3 years.