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#1 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 06 October 2013 - 08:49 AM

I am going to try my hand at betting the NFL games.
I have never really done much sports betting, so I'm going to start with small amounts until I get a feel for it. If things go well, I may up the amounts.
I'll track my bets and results here.

All betting is on Carbon Poker.

Here are my bets for this week:

Phi to WIN over NYG : $20 bet to win $20.
I'm picking the winner and not the line here because PHI is a 1.5 underdog at -110, but even money to win. If I bet the line and not the win, I'm giving up money on a pretty unlikely result (an exactly 1 point loss.)

NO to COVER -1.5 over CHI : $20 bet to win $18.20.
The Bears are at home, and this line is probably about right, but I like Drew Brees' chances to light up this Bears pass D.

ARI to COVER +2.5 against CAR : $20 bet to win $19.04
No way are the Panthers good enough to be road favorites, even against the Cards. I probably should just bet the win instead of the line, as that is at +120, but oh well, I saved that for my U/D parlay.

DAL to COVER +9 against DEN : $20 bet to win $17.40
Denver is really good, but 9 points on the road against a "capable" team?

DAL to WIN over DEN: $5 bet to win $15.00
Obviously Dallas probably won't win, but getting 3:1 I figure I'll take a small stab at it. Denver has to lose some time, even great teams do. I ask myself if they played 4 times, all in Dallas, would the Cowboys win at least 1? I think they would.

NYJ to COVER +10 against ATL: $20 bet to win $19
The Jets are on the road, against a talented team, but I just don't think many NFL teams should be double digit favorites, even at home, against many teams. The Jets are not as bad as I thought they would be, their D is pretty good, and the Falcons have been inconsistent, at best. The Falcons will win, but I'll take the Jets to cover.

NYJ to WIN over ATL: $5 bet to win $21
Okay, I know I just said above that the Falcons will win, but I can't pass up any NFL team getting better than 4:1 against any other NFL team.

DET to COVER +7 against GB: $20 bet to win $19.04
To me this is the most "wrong" line of the day. I should probably bet more. The Packers have some major flaws folks, and their pass D is awful. Bush gives the Lions the balance they haven't had in years past, making Stafford/Megatron even more dangerous.
Even in Lambeau, the Pack should not be anywhere near 7 pt favorites against the Lions.

BALT to WIN at Miami: $20 bet to win $22.
This was the toughest pick of the day for me. But, at the end of the day I just don't buy that the Dolphins are that good, or that the Ravens are that bad. Probably a better bet to pick Balt to cover instead of win, but it's a close enough spread that I'll take the + line for a win instead of the - line to just cover.

CIN to COVER +1.5: $20 bet to win $18.20.
Let me start by saying I don't like this bet. I think Brady is the best QB of all time, and my gut says never bet against him, at anytime, in any scenario. But, that said, If I'm objective, I don't get how the Bengals are a home dog. Gronk is still out, Thompkins is limited, the Pats backfield is made up right now of guys I've either never heard of, or didn't realize were still in football, and their D, I think is good, but has been up and down.
Of course, my luck Brady will go ape crap and make me regret this pick.

SEA to COVER -3 over IND: $20 bet to win $20.
Another one I don't like. Seattle is not as good on the road, and Andrew Luck is a man (but not 40). But, getting even money I'll take the 'Hawks, if it were a - line it might be different.

KC to COVER -3 over TEN: $20 bet to win $17.40.
Am I missing something here? The Titans are not good, and now Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start.
Let me repeat that, Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start.
This line could be -8 and I'd still probably bet KC to cover.

JAX to COVER +11 against STL: $20 bet to win $17.40.
See above about double digit dogs in the NFL. And yes, I realize the Jags are terrible.

OAK to COVER +5 against SD: $20 bet to win $19.04.
The Chargers D couldn't slow down a JV Powder Puff team, and I think Pryor is the real deal. I not only like OAK to cover, but to win.

OAK to WIN over SD: $5 bet to win $9.50.
No way should I be getting nearly 2:1 on Oakland over SD, in Oakland. I get that Oakland is not very good, but hello, neither is SD.

SF to COVER -5.5 over HOU: $20 bet to win $18.20
This is a tough one to bet, in Houston. But I still believe in the 49ers, and I still believe in Kap.

Underdog Parlay, a.k.a. "lottery ticket"
I figure I'll do a lotto ticket underdog parlay every week. I'll likely never win one of these, but hey, it's fun to dream, right?
Basically I'll parlay every U/D that I think has close to a 50% chance to win, so the # of teams in the parlay will change every week.
This week I found 5 teams.
All picks are to WIN.
DAL over DEN, OAK over SD, PHI over NYG, ARI over CAR, BALT over MIA.
$20 bet to win $2074.96

6 point teaser of the week:
Basically for this I will follow the "Wong" rule. (Move the spread in any game with a spread of either 1.5 to 2.5 or 7.5 to 8.5)
The theory is you cross the line over the "magic numbers" of 7 and 3.
Like the parlay, this method will result in a different # of games involved each week, this week it works out to 4 teams.

PHI to cover +7.5, ARI to cover +8.5, CIN to cover +7.5, CHI to cover +8.5
$20 bet to win $52.

Well, there it is, for week 5. Wish me luck.
I have wagered a total of $315.00 to win $2417.38. ($342.42 if you exclude my "lotto ticket", which I probably won't win!)

Hopefully I do well, and will continue this next week, if it is a disaster I may just forget about it, LOL, I don't feel like setting money on fire!

Edited by Mr. Brooks, 06 October 2013 - 08:54 AM.

#2 DaveW


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Posted 06 October 2013 - 09:57 PM

Looks good so far!

#3 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 07 October 2013 - 06:02 AM

Man, I was a Tono Romo pick from winning 2 grand!! I really thought the Cowboys were going to pull that one out, too.

Well, lets take a look at the results so far with just tonights game remaining.

PHI/NYG: I called this one right, and I'm really still curious what the fat cats in Vegas were thinking betting NY up to a favorite.

NO/CHI: This one both helped, and hurt me. I won my straight bet, with NO covering. But, unfortunately they covered by 1 point to many, and cost me my 6 point teaser, as I had the other 3 games right.

ARI/CAR: I had this one right on both fronts, with the Cardinals winning easily at home.

DAL/DEN: Ugh! Mixed bag here. Dallas covered, so I won that bet, but I lost my smaller bet picking DAL to win, and, as I said above, this game alone cost me 2 grand!!

DET/GB: This loss is the fault of my own ignorance. I should have checked the injury reports more closely. I never expected Megatron to miss the game, and would not have taken DET without him, they are a totally different team when he's not on the field.

BALT/MIA: This one came down to the wire, but luckily the Dolphins rookie kicker missed a long FG which would have forced OT.

CIN/NE: I'm glad I stuck to my guns and went with my head here instead of my heart. I love Brady, but he's got no weapons right now.

SEA/IND: I lost this one, but it was a good game. Andrew Luck is going to be the best QB in the NFL in a few years.

KC/TEN: Tennessee gave me a scare for a while, but in the end the better team pulled away.

JAX/STL: It's tough to cover 11 points, no matter how bad your opponent is, so even though I lost this one, I don't regret my pick.

OAK/SD: I won two bets here, with Oakland winning easily. Another spread where I really can't understand what Vegas was thinking, the Chargers are not a good team.

SF/HOU: I figured it was only a matter of time before this uber talented 49ers team started to play like they are capable of. Easy cover here.

Lotto ticket: I lost, but wow was it close. If Tony Romo didn't suddenly remember that he's Tony Romo in the last 2 minutes, I'd be celebrating right now.

6 pt. teaser: I had 3 of the 4 right, but sorry Meatloaf, that is not good enough. The Bears are even worse than I thought they are, and that is what burned me here.

With 1 game (and 2 bets) remaining, I've already won back my $315, and pocketed a tidy $48.98 profit. It's already been a good week, but lets go Jets and make it a great week!

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Posted 07 October 2013 - 07:36 AM

This is an interesting thread to follow IMO. Hope you keep us in the loop, and good luck.

The Romo thing is why I can't bet like this. I wouldn't have been able to sleep last night if it were my 2 grand flushed by one bad throw.

#5 diehardtwinsfan


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Posted 08 October 2013 - 06:29 PM

You did quite well.

#6 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 09 October 2013 - 05:28 AM

You did quite well.

Yep, with the Jets winning I end the week with an $88.98 profit.

Will post my Thursday night bet tonight or tomorrow.

#7 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 13 October 2013 - 07:21 AM

Did not get a bet in on the Thursday game.

Here are my picks for this week.
Running Total so far: +$88.98.

I'm going to stick with similar bet sizes for one more week. If I do well again, I will probably bump them up next week.

GB to COVER -3 @ BALT. $20 to win $20.
I know Matthews is out, it's in Baltimore, and I'm in the minority in that I still think the Ravens are a very good team.
However, all that said, I still like the Packers to win. The line is tricky, because I see a close game, but I think they cover.

DET to cover -3 @ CLE. $20 to win $20.
I got burned by Detroit last week, and Megatron will again be a game time decision. And Cleveland is better than anyone thought they would be, and it's in Cleveland. But, Hoyer is out for the year, which means they are putting the ball back in Brandon Weeden's hands. That is all I need to know to take this line.

STL to cover +8 @ HOU. $20 to win $18.18.
The Rams are not a great team, but they are better than most give them credit for. I think Jeff Fisher does a solid job with mediocre talent, and I don't think his teams will get blown out very often, especially against a Houston team that is a bit of a mess right now.

KC to cover -8 vs. OAK. $20 to win $18.18.
This was the first pick I really struggled with. 8 is a big number to cover, especially for a team that, though good, is not without holes. I went back and forth, but in the end the deciding factor was the better team AND at home.

OAK @ KC, UNDER 41 pts. $20 to win $18.18
KC has a legit defense, McFadden is likely out, and the Chiefs have ran a pretty conservative offense, one that will likely run the ball alot once they get a lead. I like the under here.

JAX to cover +27 @ DEN. $20 to win $18.18.
LOL, 27 point spread in the NFL? Wow. Denver is good enough, and Jacksonville is bad enough, that the Broncos could win this game by 40 points. But I'm still never going to pass up a 27 point dog in the NFL.

TEN to cover +13.5 @ SEA. $20 to win $18.18.
Yeah, I like Seattle as much as the next guy, and I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is as awful as NFL QB's come, but I think Tennessee's D is solid enough to keep them within 2 TD's.

TEN @ SEA, UNDER 41 pts. $20 to win $18.18.
Both teams have good defenses, Lynch is banged up, Russell Wilson has looked just "okay", and Seattle should get a comfortable lead early and run a bunch of clock, so I really like the under here.

ARI to cover +10.5 @ SF. $20 to win $18.18.
I'm contradicting myself a bit here after my statements last week on just how talented I think SF is, but I also made it clear I don't think NFL teams should be double digit favorites. I just don't think the talent gap is very wide at all in the NFL.

ARI @ SF UNDER 41 points. $20 to win $18.18.
I think they way these two teams match up calls for a pretty low scoring game. The Cards have a shut down corner, and SF doesn't have a lot of weapons in the passing game. Meanwhile, the Cards have a terrible QB, and a capable enough running game. I see a game with huge chunks of clock being chewed up between scores.

DAL to cover -6 vs. WSH. $20 to win $18.18.
Wait, let me see if I have this right. Dallas just drove the field at will against the best team in the NFL, and nearly won, right? This game is in Dallas, right? I've been watching the same awful Redskins team as everyone in Vegas has, right? Dallas should be favored by 7.5 points, IMO, but I won't complain, I'll gladly take this line. (Even though I pick WSH to win later, hah!)

IND to cover -2.5 @ SD. $20 to win $18.18.
Another line that blows my mind. I'll keep saying the following 2 statements until the fat cats in Vegas hear me: 1) The Chargers are AWFUL! 2) Andrew Luck is not human. He was obviously built in a lab somewhere with different parts taken from all the greatest QB's to ever play the game.
Easy bet here folks.

IND @ SD, OVER 51 points. $20 to win $18.18.
I usually shy away from taking the over, especially when its more than 50 points. But, like I said last week, the Chargers pass D would not stop a girls middle school QB, let alone Andrew Luck. Add to the that the one thing the Chargers actually can capably do is chuck the ball downfield, and will likely play all day from behind, and this seems like a solid over.

CAR to cover +2.5 @ MIN. $20 to win $19.04.
Sorry folks, I'd love to bet on the Vikings, but I have to think with my wallet and not my heart here.
This is not a good matchup for the Vikings. The Panthers have a good run defense, though not great, and I think AP can run against them, but just not enough to make up for the elite pass D that Carolina has. Add to it, that IMO, the 2 things the Vikings D under Frazier/Williams struggles most against are good pass catching TE's, and mobile QB's, and I just don't like our chances, even at home.

CAR to WIN @ MIN. $20 to win $22.
If I'm going to pick CAR to cover 2.5 pts, then I probably think they'll win too, so I might as well take both bets.

CIN to cover -6 @ BUF. $20 to win $18.18.
If Thad Lewis (who?) keeps BUF within a TD of CIN, then watch for falling meteors, because that could be a sign of the apocalypse.

NYJ to cover -1 vs. PIT. $20 to win $18.18.
This is what I love about the NFL. I thought coming into the year that the Jets could realistically go 0-16. Now I think they are a fringe playoff team. I thought the Steelers were a fringe playoff team, now I think they could realistically go 0-16. Go figure.

PHI to cover -2.5 @ TB. $20 to win $16.66.
This was the toughest pick for me. I know Nick Foles looked good last week, and I'm on record saying I think Greg Schiano (sp?) is a clown, but I'm not buying Nick Foles quite yet (though I am buying that Schiano is still a clown). That said, I'm buying Mike Glennon even less than I'm buying Nick Foles, so that is what we are left with after all that rambling.

NO to WIN @ NE. $20 to win $20.
As I said last week, it literally pains me to bet against Tom Brady. But, Gronk is still out, Aaron Hernandez is still in jail, and the Pats still have no legit NFL running backs. The Pats have a football genius on the sideline, but so do the Saints, so I can't even give that edge to the Pats. I'll probably regret this pick, because I think the Pats will be motivated, and pissed off, and I don't think a Belicheck team will ever lay down and quit, but I'm just not sure they have the talent right now for all that to matter.

Underdog Parlay:
Well, I came within 1 Tony Romo choke dog moment from cashing a lotto ticket last week, lets see if I can come close again. This week I found 5 games to parlay.
TB to WIN vs PHI (yeah, I know I said what I said about the stuff earlier, but hey, there are not a lot of U/D's that I truly like this week), CLE to WIN vs. DET, CAR to WIN @ MIN, STL to WIN @ HOU, WSH to WIN @ DAL.
$20 to win $2372.04.

6 point teaser.
I'm following the same formula as last week, there are 5 applicable games this week.
SD to cover +8.5 vs IND, TB to cover +8.5 vs PHI, CAR to cover +8.5 @ MIN, KC to cover -2 vs OAK, HOU to cover -2 vs STL.
$20 to win $90.

This week I am betting $420 to win $2816.08 ($444.04 (that is a lot of 4's!) if you exclude my lotto ticket).
Wish me luck, will post results later!

#8 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 09:41 AM

So last week I squeaked out a profit by the skin of my teeth.
I won $424.90, for a mere $4.90 profit.
My running total is now at +$93.88.
This weeks bets to follow.

#9 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 11:04 AM

Week 7 picks:
Going to stick with the $20 bets again, since I didn't do so hot last week.

CHI to WIN @ WSH: The Bears have looked better than I thought coming into the season. The Redskins are really struggling right now. I would never have thought I'd like Cutler better than RGIII, and while I still would take RGIII long term, Cutler is the better QB today.
$20 to win $16.66

CHI to COVER -1.5 @ WSH: See above.
$20 to win $18.18

CHI/WSH OVER 49pts: This number just feels really low to me. No real insight on why, it's a pure gut bet.
$20 to win $18.18

STL to COVER +7 @ CAR: The Panthers are not as good as they looked last week against the Vikes. They were playing an awful team. Don't forget they couldn't move the ball against Arizona in week 5, and I like The D and the coaching in STL.
$20 to win $20.

ATL to COVER -6.5 vs. TB: Yeah, Matt Ryan has nobody to throw the ball to right now, but I think the Buccs are going to quit on that clown of a coach they have.
$20 to win $17.40.

ATL/TB UNDER 43.5 pts: No WR's for Ryan, and the Buccs have Mike Glennon at QB. I see a score of something like 21-10 in this one.
$20 to win $18.18.

NYJ to COVER +4.5 vs. NE: I was about to take this even at +3.5. So, when it suddenly changed to +4.5, I couldn't hit submit fast enough. Pats win, but by 3 or less.
$20 to win $18.18.

NYJ/NE UNDER 44pts: The return of Gronk could screw up both these bets, but I think both defenses are good enough to hold the other offense to 20 or less.
$20 to win $18.18.

SF to COVER -3.5 @ TEN: Am I missing something here? Ok sure, the game is in Tennessee, but the 49ers are a vastly superior team, and the Titans played Seattle last week. Seattle is so physical, they leave their opponent beaten and bruised for a couple weeks after. No brainer here.
$20 to win $16.66.

SF/TEN UNDER 42pts: While the Titans are not good, and will lose by plenty, they do have a very good D, as does SF.
$20 to win $18.18.

PIT to COVER -1.5 vs. BALT: This is a wing and a prayer. I have no idea, LOL. The Steelers are bad. In fact, so bad that they lost to the Vikings, on a neutral site. And the Ravens are the defending SB Champs, yet I'm picking PIT. Go figure.
$20 to win $18.18.

PIT/BALT UNDER 41 pts: I don't trust either offense. Come to think of it, I don't trust either defense neither. Oh well.
$20 to win $18.18.

KC to COVER -7 vs. HOU: Everyone is calling KC lucky and a fluke. Hmmm, to each his own I guess. I'll keep making money off their expense, I guess. KC is good folks.
$20 to win $19.04

IND to COVER +6.5 vs DEN: Denver has to lose eventually. Dallas at home should have been the team, I'm putting my money on Andrew Luck to not choke like a Romo.
$20 to win $19.04.

IND to WIN vs. DEN: See above.
$20 to win $45.00

DAL to COVER +3 @ PHI: This game could go either way, and will be a fun one, I think. I kinda hate my pick here, as Nick Foles is better than I was giving him credit, but I think Dallas scores last in a big time shootout.
$20 to win $16.66.

DAL to WIN @ PHI: See above.
$20 to win $24.00.

DAL/PHI, OVER 56.5 pts: Shootout folks, many points scored in this one. First to 40 wins.
$20 to win $18.18.

CIN to COVER +3 @ DET: I like Cinnci's D more than I like Detroit's O.
$20 to win $18.18.

JAX to COVER +7.5 vs. SD: It's really hard to go 0-16. I have a suspicion this is as good of a game as any to get that first win.
$20 to win $18.18

GB to COVER -9.5 vs. CLE: I almost never take double digit favorites. Luckily GB is not QUITE a double digit favorite.
$20 to win $19.04

MIA to COVER -6 vs. BUF: I just don't like Buffalo. The city or the team. Sorry.
$20 to win $18.18.

NYG to COVER -3.5 vs. MIN: Sorry folks, the Vikes really ARE that bad. Vikings get blown out and Frazier is out of work on Tuesday.
$20 to win $18.18.

Underdog Parlay: CIN over DET, IND over DEN, JAX over SD, DAL over PHI, STL over CAR.
All teams to WIN.
$20 to win $4544.10

6pt teaser: WSH +7.5 vs. CHI, DEN -0.5 @ IND, ATL -0.5 vs. TB, SD -1.5 @ JAX, CAR -1 vs. STL, BALT +7.5 @ PIT, KC -1 vs. HOU.
I'm hedging my bets on most of these, I realize.
$20 to win $200.

Total: $250 to win $5192.42.
Wish me luck!

#10 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 20 October 2013 - 06:32 PM

"Shootout folks"

#11 diehardtwinsfan


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Posted 21 October 2013 - 07:33 PM

What the odds that the Vikings win just enough games to keep them from drafting the franchise qB that they need?

#12 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 04:28 AM

"Shootout folks"

Yeah, I couldn't have been more wrong on that one.

#13 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 October 2013 - 04:29 AM

Posted a meager $25.46 profit this week. Putting my running total at +$119.34.

#14 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 12:26 AM

2006 Steelers vs Chargers

The Steelers were 5 point favorites over the Chargers in Pittsburgh. The majority of bets were placed on the Steelers covering.

Even though the Steelers had nearly twice as many yards as the Chargers (410 - 218), and had 0 turnovers compared to the Chargers 2...the game was close because the Steelers were penalized 13 times for 115 yards (2 TD's were called back), compared to the Chargers 2 penalties for 10 yards (1 of them shouldn't have been called..we'll get to that)

The Steelers hit a FG to take the lead 11-10 with barely any time left. At the moment Vegas is looking good because the Steelers didn't cover. Then this happens:


It takes the refs literally like 20 minutes to review the final play (even though it has zero effect on the game). They finally decide to call an illegal forward pass (which it wasn't), game over 11-10. But the thing is if you're gonna call that, then Pittsburgh has the right to decline it, thus counting the TD and them covering the spread. The refs admitted immediately after the game that they botched the call and should have awarded the TD, but too late to do anything about it I guess.

Oh yeah, it was roughly a 64 million dollar swing for Vegas.

Edited by Fatt Crapps, 23 October 2013 - 12:42 AM.

#15 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 07:19 AM

Here are my week 8 picks.
My running total on the season is currently at +$119.34.

I feel pretty good about this week, as most of my picks seemed fairly easy in my mind. Of course, with the way the NFL goes, that probably means I'll have an awful week, we'll see.

SF to COVER -16 @ JAX (London): $20 to win $18.18.
As you've heard me say before, I typically take the double digit underdog in the NFL, no matter the teams. And that's what I've been doing most often with Jacksonville. But, I just can't do it anymore. This Jacksonville team is awful, putrid, terrible, etc.
16 points is a lot for any team to cover in the NFL, so I'm not super confident in this pick, but I think it's the right call.

SF/JAX UNDER 41 points. $20 to win $18.18.
I haven't done too well picking the O/U this year, and if that continues I'll probably stop doing it. But in this one I like the under. Jacksonville scored just 6 points at home against the Chargers last week, so I could easily see them getting shut out against SF in London. At most I think they score 7, so I like this play even if SF scores 30 points.

DAL to COVER +3 @ DET. $20 to win $17.40.
I guess I just like Dallas more than Vegas does, and like Detroit less than Vegas does. I'm happy to take the +3 here, because I think this should be a "pick 'em" line. By giving Dallas 3 points in Detroit, Vegas is basically saying they think these teams are even on a neutral site, which I disagree with. Dallas is the better team.

PHI to COVER -5 vs. NYG. $20 to win $18.18.
The Eagles looked pretty bad last week, and the Giants notched their first win of the season, so I can understand Vegas' logic here, but I'm not buying it. I like the Eagles to win by a TD at least at home. Michael Vick is back, and while he might not be 100% right now, I just don't put any faith in the Giants getting a win against the Vikings, so while both teams might be bad, I think the Giants are significantly worse.

KC to COVER -7.5 vs. CLE. $20 to win $18.18.
It finally burned me last week, but I'm going to keep betting KC, as I think they are underrated. Jason Campbell is starting for Cleveland, it's in Arrowhead, and the Chiefs can pressure the QB.

KC/CLE UNDER 39.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
This is a pretty small total to get under, but it feels right to me. Kansas City is at home, both teams have pretty good defenses, and KC isn't the type of squad that is going to run up the score. I can easily see a score of something like 21-10 here.

NO to COVER -11.5 vs. BUF. $20 to win $18.18.
Again I'm betting on a double digit favorite, which I don't love. But I think the Saints are playing pretty good right now, and again, I don't like Buffalo, even if that burned me last week. The one thing that worries me in this one is that BUF can get after the QB, but if the Saints can figure out a way to slow down Mario Williams, I think Brees can march up and down the field all day.

NE to COVER -6.5 vs. MIA. $20 to win $18.18.
I've done very well this year picking against New England. But now I think the tides have turned, and Vegas is swinging too far in the opposite direction. I've learned so far that you can't wait 1 week to long to make the adjustment. The time to start buying NE is now. Gronk looked great in his return, he should be even better this week. It looks like Amendola will return. The Pats are at home, and the Dolphins are a mess right now.

CIN to COVER -5 vs. NYJ: $20 to win $18.18.
I feel almost exactly the same way about the Jets as I do the Pats. I've done very well betting on the Jets this year, but I think perception has swung, and I'm going to make the adjustment. The Jets got a huge win last week against the rival Pats, I think they are due for a let down this week.

CIN/NYJ UNDER 41.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
Both teams have very good defenses, and while the Bengals do have some weapons, and can struggle against mobile QB's, I think the Jets run D will shut down Bernard/Lawfirm, and while I like Dalton/Green, I don't think it will be enough to put up a lot of points if it is the only dimension they have. I like the Bengals to win 24-14.

OAK to COVER +2.5 vs. PIT. $20 to win $19.04.
I don't like either team, so I'll just take the home team AND the points. That's really all the insight I have here, LOL.

WSH to COVER +11.5 @ DEN. $20 to win $18.18.
I've made good money so far this year picking against the fan favorite Broncos. While I know that success will eventually end, I don't think that perception swing has happened just yet. RGIII is getting his groove back, and while I don't love this pick with the game being in Denver, I just can't take Denver to cover that many points in this game.

WSH/DEN OVER 60 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
Okay, 60 points is a whole lot of points to bet over on, I know that. But, Denver has gone over that total in most of their games this year, and Washington went to 86 last week against a Cutler-less Bears team. I lost my "shootout" cred last week with my PHI/DAL projection, LOL, but I think this time I'll be right. I see both teams putting up 35+ points a piece.

ATL to COVER +2 @ ARI. $20 to win $17.40.
See my comments last week about teams coming off a game against the Seahawks. Atlanta will destroy the Cardinals here. If I were to pick a "lock" of the week, this would be it this week.

GB to COVER -9 @ MIN. $20 to win $18.18.
I don't know how this spread is only at 9. Sure it's in Minnesota, but Aaron Rodgers has to be licking his chops looking at this Minnesota secondary.

SEA to COVER -12 @ STL. $20 to win $17.40.
I hate picking a home NFL team to lose by 2 TD's, and you might know I actually like the Rams this year, but come on, Kellen Clemons is starting this game for the Rams!

SEA/STL UNDER 43 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
I don't see how the Rams score a single point in this game, seriously. (Okay, that might be going too far on a limb, but you get the point.) I basically just need Seattle to stay under 40, which I think is likely. Easy money here.

U/D Parlay: I'm not seeing many big time upsets this week, so the lotto ticket is not as extreme as usual this week.
I'm taking DAL over DET, OAK over PIT, ATL over ARI and NYJ over CIN. (All teams to WIN.)
$20 to win $519.84.

6 pt. teaser: KC to COVER -1.5 vs. CLE, OAK to COVER +8.5 vs. PIT, ATL to COVER +8 @ ARI.
$20 to win $32.

Totals for this week are: $380 to win $859.42.

#16 biggentleben


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Posted 28 October 2013 - 12:16 PM

Ignoring your teaser and parlay, you're sitting about .500 this week. You had to have been throwing things when KC kicked the extra field goal to end up at 40.

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#17 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 06:16 AM

Yep, you are right Ben.
I had my first losing week, but I pretty much broke even outside of the parlay and teaser bets (actually up a couple bucks).

Overall last week, I lost $36.50 to bring my running total on the season to a NET PROFIT of $82.84.

Picks for this week to follow.

#18 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 08:12 AM

Here are my week 9 picks:

CAR to COVER -7.5 vs. ATL. $20 to win $18.18.

I don't like this pick very much. Trusting Carolina to cover MORE than a TD against anyone is a tough pill to swallow. But, that said, the Panthers are playing pretty well right now, are at home, and the Falcons are a total mess.
If I weren't committed to picking every game (except THU nighters, just don't have time during the week), I'd probably pass on this one.

DAL to COVER -10 vs. MIN. $20 to win $17.40.
Tony Romo can chuck the ball all over the yard, with his main weakness being untimely turnovers.
The Vikings secondary is a mess, and they have never been a team that forces many turnovers, at least not in the passing game.
The Cowboys can be run on, but I think they get up early enough to effectively take AP out of the game.

MIN/DAL OVER 50.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
I like the over here. Dallas could easily score 40+ on this Vikings defense if they wan't to, and after last week I think they will want to. Ponder is terrible, but he's been known for his garbage time TD's at times.

NO to COVER -7 @ NYJ. $20 to win $19.04.
Another line that I'm not too comfortable with. The Saints have been pretty good this year, in all phases of the game, but which Jets team will show up? If there is a Jeckyl and Hyde team this year it's the Jets.
Another game that I probably should pass on.

TEN to COVER -3 @ STL. $20 to win $16.66.
The Titans have been better this year than I thought they would be, and the Rams are a mess post Bradford.
I'm a big believer in Jeff Fisher though, so I'm not super comfortable with this pick, it wouldn't shock me if the Rams win.
Looking around, it's trendy to take the UNDER in this game, but my research is not as optimistic in that regard, in fact I'm ALMOST tempted to take the OVER, but I won't.

KC to COVER -4 @ BUF. $20 to win $17.40.
I've been taking KC all year, which finally burned me last week, but I'm not jumping off the bandwagon just yet.
Lucky, easy schedule, fluke wins, always facing a banged up team, blah blah blah.
Just because the Chiefs win ugly, does not mean they are an ugly team. I'm going to keep riding them until the lines get out of hand, which clearly they are not yet.

SD to WIN @ WSH. $20 to win $18.18.
This is a pick 'em game, which seems right to me. It really could go either way. I started taking SD, then canceled and went with Washington, then later went back and flipped back to SD again.
The Chargers are coming off a bye, Phillip Rivers has been reborn. Of course, that said, I don't think the Redskins played as bad as the final score showed last week, so who knows, I'm flipping a coin at this point I guess.

SD/WSH OVER 52 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
I'm much more confident in this pick than I am the pick 'em. Both these teams have had very high scoring games this year, I think they cover the 52 quite comfortably. One of these teams will win 35-31....I just don't know which one, LOL.

OAK to COVER -2.5 vs. PHI. $20 to win $18.18.
Off the top of my head, I THINK I have profited on every Raiders game I've bet so far. They are getting no love, and I don't get it.
Their defense is legit, and Terrell Pryor, while still a work in progress, is also legit.

OAK/PHI UNDER 45 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
I think Vegas is still under the influence of the Eagles early season high scoring games. It didn't take long for NFL defenses to figure out Chip Kelly's offense, especially post Vick. I think this game goes well under 45. Oakland 21, Philadelphia 17.

TB to COVER +16 @ SEA. $20 to win $18.18.
The Buccs are awful, don't get me wrong. And the Seahawks are really good. Much like the Monkeys, I'm a Believer.
But, the 'Hawks find a way to win ugly far more often then their talent suggests they should. I think this line is too high, even in Seattle.

TB/SEA UNDER 41 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
Again, Seattle is prone to ugly wins, even against bad teams. Seattle wins 24-14.

CLE to COVER +2.5 vs. BALT. $20 to win $18.18.
Another game where I went back and forth a few times. I initially insta bet Cleveland, because frankly both teams are bad right now, and when two bad teams meet, you take the points, especially if those points are at home.
But, then I realized the Ravens are coming off the bye, as defending SB champs, with what I consider a very good coaching staff. They have also beaten CLE something like 10 or 11 straight times, and 4 or 5 straight in Cleveland. So, I was thinking maybe it's an old team that needed a bye week to get some things straightened out, and will against their "whipping boy".
But then I said "screw it" and wen't back to my initial feeling, LOL.
Always go with your first instinct.....right?

PIT to COVER +6.5 @ NE. $20 to win $18.18.
The Pats, and specifically Brady, are really not playing well right now. Of course their is enough talent and leadership, IMO, for that switch to flip at any moment, and my luck it will be today.
But, even most of their wins this year have been close. I like the Pats to win a close one.

PIT/NE UNDER 43.5 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
My research initially showed that this O/U is about right, so I was going to pass on it. But then I just had a nagging feeling that this had the makings of a very low scoring, ugly game. So, there you have it, this is one of those pure gut picks, that I have no statistical or analytical basis for, we'll see how that turns out!

IND to COVER -3 @ HOU. $20 to win $20.
What on earth is going on here?!?! Is there something I don't know about this game? Did Andrew Luck fall down an elevator shaft?
The Colts are coming off a bye week, which was proceeded by a huge win against Denver. Now they get to face an awful Texans team which is again starting Case Keenam (sp?).
AND, on top of that, I am getting even money on my bet!

GB to COVER -11 vs. CHI. $20 to win $18.18.
The Bears defense is a mess right now, and Cutler is still out. I don't like double digit favorites in most any NFL game, but this is one with only one right answer. Pack win by at least 2 TD's.

GB/CHI OVER 51 PTS. $20 to win $18.18.
The Packers should be able to move the ball at will, and even without Cutler the Bears have put up points. This one should go well over 51. Packers 38, Bears 24.

U/D Parlay:
I'm going all out on this one today. I see several underdogs that at least have a decent shot to pull an upset. Obviously some might, many probably won't, which is why I'm getting an almost laughable ROI if all the stars line up, but hey, that's why it's a lotto ticket, right?

ATL to WIN @ CAR: As bad as Atlanta looked last week, and with no WR's, they still have Matt Ryan, and Carolina is not an elite team.
NYJ to WIN vs. NO: If the 'good' Jets show up, it could happen, right? Maybe?
STL to WIN vs. TEN: Rams are at home, and hung tough against Seattle last week.
BUF to WIN vs. KC: As much as I love KC this year, they are not going 16-0. This one could be a trap game, on the road, against a team that they should beat, but is not without talent.
PHI to WIN @ OAK: I'm trying to come up with reasons why PHI can travel to Oakland and win right now, but let's be hones, I'm just trying to get this jackpot as high as I can with this one.
CLE to WIN vs. BALT: Very possible, maybe even likely.
PIT to WIN @ NE: Again, very possible, as badly as Brady is playing right now. Not likely though.
$20 to win $26,292.76.

6 pt. teaser:
CAR to COVER -1.5 vs. ATL, PHI to COVER +8.5 @ OAK, CLE to COVER +8.5 vs. BALT.
$20 to win $32.

I'm completely excluding the lotto ticket for my final summary, as it's completly absurd.
$380 to win $358.84.

Wish me luck!

#19 Fatt Crapps

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Posted 03 November 2013 - 02:54 PM

Not looking good so far

#20 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 04 November 2013 - 05:33 AM

Nope, not looking good this week.
I will lose money regardless of tonight's game.

Oh, and thanks a lot Blair Walsh for missing that extra point, that was fun to lose the over by a half point on a missed XP.