I have never really done much sports betting, so I'm going to start with small amounts until I get a feel for it. If things go well, I may up the amounts.
I'll track my bets and results here.
All betting is on Carbon Poker.
Here are my bets for this week:
Phi to WIN over NYG : $20 bet to win $20.
I'm picking the winner and not the line here because PHI is a 1.5 underdog at -110, but even money to win. If I bet the line and not the win, I'm giving up money on a pretty unlikely result (an exactly 1 point loss.)
NO to COVER -1.5 over CHI : $20 bet to win $18.20.
The Bears are at home, and this line is probably about right, but I like Drew Brees' chances to light up this Bears pass D.
ARI to COVER +2.5 against CAR : $20 bet to win $19.04
No way are the Panthers good enough to be road favorites, even against the Cards. I probably should just bet the win instead of the line, as that is at +120, but oh well, I saved that for my U/D parlay.
DAL to COVER +9 against DEN : $20 bet to win $17.40
Denver is really good, but 9 points on the road against a "capable" team?
DAL to WIN over DEN: $5 bet to win $15.00
Obviously Dallas probably won't win, but getting 3:1 I figure I'll take a small stab at it. Denver has to lose some time, even great teams do. I ask myself if they played 4 times, all in Dallas, would the Cowboys win at least 1? I think they would.
NYJ to COVER +10 against ATL: $20 bet to win $19
The Jets are on the road, against a talented team, but I just don't think many NFL teams should be double digit favorites, even at home, against many teams. The Jets are not as bad as I thought they would be, their D is pretty good, and the Falcons have been inconsistent, at best. The Falcons will win, but I'll take the Jets to cover.
NYJ to WIN over ATL: $5 bet to win $21
Okay, I know I just said above that the Falcons will win, but I can't pass up any NFL team getting better than 4:1 against any other NFL team.
DET to COVER +7 against GB: $20 bet to win $19.04
To me this is the most "wrong" line of the day. I should probably bet more. The Packers have some major flaws folks, and their pass D is awful. Bush gives the Lions the balance they haven't had in years past, making Stafford/Megatron even more dangerous.
Even in Lambeau, the Pack should not be anywhere near 7 pt favorites against the Lions.
BALT to WIN at Miami: $20 bet to win $22.
This was the toughest pick of the day for me. But, at the end of the day I just don't buy that the Dolphins are that good, or that the Ravens are that bad. Probably a better bet to pick Balt to cover instead of win, but it's a close enough spread that I'll take the + line for a win instead of the - line to just cover.
CIN to COVER +1.5: $20 bet to win $18.20.
Let me start by saying I don't like this bet. I think Brady is the best QB of all time, and my gut says never bet against him, at anytime, in any scenario. But, that said, If I'm objective, I don't get how the Bengals are a home dog. Gronk is still out, Thompkins is limited, the Pats backfield is made up right now of guys I've either never heard of, or didn't realize were still in football, and their D, I think is good, but has been up and down.
Of course, my luck Brady will go ape crap and make me regret this pick.
SEA to COVER -3 over IND: $20 bet to win $20.
Another one I don't like. Seattle is not as good on the road, and Andrew Luck is a man (but not 40). But, getting even money I'll take the 'Hawks, if it were a - line it might be different.
KC to COVER -3 over TEN: $20 bet to win $17.40.
Am I missing something here? The Titans are not good, and now Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start.
Let me repeat that, Ryan Fitzpatrick is going to start.
This line could be -8 and I'd still probably bet KC to cover.
JAX to COVER +11 against STL: $20 bet to win $17.40.
See above about double digit dogs in the NFL. And yes, I realize the Jags are terrible.
OAK to COVER +5 against SD: $20 bet to win $19.04.
The Chargers D couldn't slow down a JV Powder Puff team, and I think Pryor is the real deal. I not only like OAK to cover, but to win.
OAK to WIN over SD: $5 bet to win $9.50.
No way should I be getting nearly 2:1 on Oakland over SD, in Oakland. I get that Oakland is not very good, but hello, neither is SD.
SF to COVER -5.5 over HOU: $20 bet to win $18.20
This is a tough one to bet, in Houston. But I still believe in the 49ers, and I still believe in Kap.
Underdog Parlay, a.k.a. "lottery ticket"
I figure I'll do a lotto ticket underdog parlay every week. I'll likely never win one of these, but hey, it's fun to dream, right?
Basically I'll parlay every U/D that I think has close to a 50% chance to win, so the # of teams in the parlay will change every week.
This week I found 5 teams.
All picks are to WIN.
DAL over DEN, OAK over SD, PHI over NYG, ARI over CAR, BALT over MIA.
$20 bet to win $2074.96
6 point teaser of the week:
Basically for this I will follow the "Wong" rule. (Move the spread in any game with a spread of either 1.5 to 2.5 or 7.5 to 8.5)
The theory is you cross the line over the "magic numbers" of 7 and 3.
Like the parlay, this method will result in a different # of games involved each week, this week it works out to 4 teams.
PHI to cover +7.5, ARI to cover +8.5, CIN to cover +7.5, CHI to cover +8.5
$20 bet to win $52.
Well, there it is, for week 5. Wish me luck.
I have wagered a total of $315.00 to win $2417.38. ($342.42 if you exclude my "lotto ticket", which I probably won't win!)
Hopefully I do well, and will continue this next week, if it is a disaster I may just forget about it, LOL, I don't feel like setting money on fire!
Edited by Mr. Brooks, 06 October 2013 - 08:54 AM.