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Twins versus Rays -- Analytical game thread

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#1 glunn

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:18 PM

As an experiment, we are adding this additional game thread for the series against the Rays. The purpose of this thread is for serious/substantive discussion about the game, with less frivolity and off-topic discussion than in the main game thread.

Users are encouraged to post in either thread or both threads as you wish.

This is an experiment and may or may not continue depending on how it goes.

#2 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:24 PM

Is witty banter permitted?

#3 glunn

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:28 PM

Is witty banter permitted?


This is an experiment so I am not sure. My sense is that it should be OK so long as it is related to the game, but I am hoping that the users of this thread can work this out as it goes along.

#4 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 03:25 PM

Yay, baseball!

#5 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 03:33 PM

Is there a way to convert baseball metrics into feet and inches? It's so confusing!

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#6 gil4

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 03:50 PM

We might need to make the other thread the analytical one.

#7 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:12 PM

Serious, substantive analysis of the Twins?

https://encrypted-tb..._41WPf8TLLU8gRw

#8 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:15 PM

Where's the thread to take our minds off Kevin Correia pitching tonight...................and next year?

#9 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:54 PM

Serious, substantive analysis of the Twins?


If it makes you feel better we can discuss all the good things the Rays do instead.

Then cry a little on the inside.

#10 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 05:53 PM

I'm ready:
Posted Image

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#11 jokin

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 05:56 PM

If it makes you feel better we can discuss all the good things the Rays do instead.

Then cry a little on the inside.


I resemble that remark. (sniff-sniff)

#12 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 06:47 PM

Why have the Rays "owned" the Twins? I would put Tampa in a list with the Yankees, Toronto, and (this year) Kansas City. The easy answer would be good pitching, but Toronto really doesn't fit that benchmark. My recollection over the last few years is that Tampa either dominates with pitching or else wins a close one with late game "clutchness".

#13 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 06:59 PM

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.

#14 jorgenswest

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:11 PM

I was trying to find it.

I would guess they hit poorly in every situation. With some very poor hitters in the line up it must be easy to pitch around better hitters. Those hitters either take a walk or try to be aggressive and swing at a pitch difficult to hit.

#15 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:15 PM

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.


Better players tend to do better.

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#16 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:16 PM

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.


It's certainly not good. A quickie glance at their batting splits isn't pretty.

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]

[TD="align: right"].221[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].319[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].322[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].641[/TD]

[/TABLE]

That's the offense's line with 2 out and RISP, about 20 points of BA and 70 points of OPS below AL average.

The pitching side of this same stat is, to put it mildly, putrid.

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]

[TD="align: right"].268[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].352[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].434[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].786
[/TD]

[/TABLE]

That's 30 points of BA and 70 points of OPS higher than AL average.

#17 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:18 PM

Put the two lines together (go South Dakota math!), and you've got the opponents hitting nearly 50 points higher, and nearly 150 points of OPS better, in that situation.

#18 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:06 PM

Ok, Gardy, you've made your point. A .240 hitter is the best you've got so he's hitting third. Well, it isn't really happening for Dozier in the #3 hole, so get him out of there.

#19 jorgenswest

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:17 PM

Dozier certainly saw better pitches with Mauer behind him. Not much in this line up to protect anyone.

#20 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:51 PM

I think this is potentially a great idea, but I think it will be hard to get this going as we're a losing club right now. I know, I'll check in both threads to see what everyone has to say.