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Twins versus Rays -- Analytical game thread

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27 replies to this topic

#1 glunn

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:18 PM

As an experiment, we are adding this additional game thread for the series against the Rays. The purpose of this thread is for serious/substantive discussion about the game, with less frivolity and off-topic discussion than in the main game thread.

Users are encouraged to post in either thread or both threads as you wish.

This is an experiment and may or may not continue depending on how it goes.

#2 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:24 PM

Is witty banter permitted?

#3 glunn

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 02:28 PM

Is witty banter permitted?


This is an experiment so I am not sure. My sense is that it should be OK so long as it is related to the game, but I am hoping that the users of this thread can work this out as it goes along.

#4 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 03:25 PM

Yay, baseball!

#5 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 03:33 PM

Is there a way to convert baseball metrics into feet and inches? It's so confusing!

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#6 gil4

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 03:50 PM

We might need to make the other thread the analytical one.

#7 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:12 PM

Serious, substantive analysis of the Twins?

https://encrypted-tb..._41WPf8TLLU8gRw

#8 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:15 PM

Where's the thread to take our minds off Kevin Correia pitching tonight...................and next year?

#9 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 04:54 PM

Serious, substantive analysis of the Twins?


If it makes you feel better we can discuss all the good things the Rays do instead.

Then cry a little on the inside.

#10 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 05:53 PM

I'm ready:
Posted Image

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#11 jokin

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 05:56 PM

If it makes you feel better we can discuss all the good things the Rays do instead.

Then cry a little on the inside.


I resemble that remark. (sniff-sniff)

#12 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 06:47 PM

Why have the Rays "owned" the Twins? I would put Tampa in a list with the Yankees, Toronto, and (this year) Kansas City. The easy answer would be good pitching, but Toronto really doesn't fit that benchmark. My recollection over the last few years is that Tampa either dominates with pitching or else wins a close one with late game "clutchness".

#13 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 06:59 PM

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.

#14 jorgenswest

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:11 PM

I was trying to find it.

I would guess they hit poorly in every situation. With some very poor hitters in the line up it must be easy to pitch around better hitters. Those hitters either take a walk or try to be aggressive and swing at a pitch difficult to hit.

#15 Winston Smith

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:15 PM

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.


Better players tend to do better.

May all our prospects be All Stars and the beer be free.


#16 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:16 PM

How rare is the two out RBI single for the Twins? How about for their opponents? In a nutshell, this seems to be the difference between the Twins and the teams they are playing.


It's certainly not good. A quickie glance at their batting splits isn't pretty.

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"].221[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].319[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].322[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].641[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That's the offense's line with 2 out and RISP, about 20 points of BA and 70 points of OPS below AL average.

The pitching side of this same stat is, to put it mildly, putrid.

[TABLE="class: sortable stats_table"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"].268[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].352[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].434[/TD]
[TD="align: right"].786
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That's 30 points of BA and 70 points of OPS higher than AL average.

#17 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 07:18 PM

Put the two lines together (go South Dakota math!), and you've got the opponents hitting nearly 50 points higher, and nearly 150 points of OPS better, in that situation.

#18 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:06 PM

Ok, Gardy, you've made your point. A .240 hitter is the best you've got so he's hitting third. Well, it isn't really happening for Dozier in the #3 hole, so get him out of there.

#19 jorgenswest

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:17 PM

Dozier certainly saw better pitches with Mauer behind him. Not much in this line up to protect anyone.

#20 PseudoSABR

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:51 PM

I think this is potentially a great idea, but I think it will be hard to get this going as we're a losing club right now. I know, I'll check in both threads to see what everyone has to say.

#21 gil4

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:58 PM

Short thread. Must be analyzing the offense tonight.

#22 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 08:59 PM

I think this is potentially a great idea, but I think it will be hard to get this going as we're a losing club right now.


Yeah, that's generally been the consensus. At the tail end of another brutal year there's little fresh ground left to cover.

#23 stringer bell

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 09:04 PM

Friday nights are typically slow anyway and with the Twins having two chances to win (slim and none) tonight and the likelihood of anything positive happening also pretty small, it figures that there wouldn't be a lot of interest.

#24 snepp

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Posted 13 September 2013 - 09:10 PM

12th shutout of the season for the Twins.


Random comparison:

12 - White Sox
13 - Astros
16 - Marlins

11 - Red Sox
13 - Braves

#25 snepp

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 03:28 PM

Twins runs: 6

Rays runs: 4


That's a win.

#26 LaBombo

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 03:36 PM

Twins runs: 6

Rays runs: 4


That's a win.

Also, hitting home runs has a positive effect on the Twins' offense.

#27 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 15 September 2013 - 07:27 PM

Also, hitting home runs has a positive effect on the Twins' offense.


How that for analytical?

#28 gil4

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 06:20 AM

Twins runs: 6

Rays runs: 4


That's a win.


That's something you don't see very often.