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Article: Twins' Rotation Is Out of Whack

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#1 Nick Nelson

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 08:28 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...Is-Out-of-Whack

#2 Rosterman

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 09:31 PM

Meyer, May, Dean, Logan, Bromberg (wait, he;'s gone), Hermsen. The return of DeVries. P.J. could be around and around again.

Looks good enough to stay out of the free agent marketplace.

Unless they resign Blackburn.

#3 beckmt

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Posted 03 September 2013 - 11:34 PM

Hope Twins sign some upper level FA pitchers. This group just will not do it.

#4 Thegrin

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 12:01 AM

We need to "find" starters from what we have. Last night Hernandez gave us a complete game. Diamond has been good in Rochester. Lets see what he does in the playoffs. Gibson will be a year older and hopefully wiser. The season isn't over yet. Lets see what Hendriks and Albers give us. Don't count on Deduno. His sore arm could end "effectively wild" career.

#5 Badsmerf

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 06:33 AM

I really hope Terry Ryan puts some money into the rotation. There really isn't much high potential in that entire group. I can see legitimate starters in Correia, Hendriks, Diamond, Worley. Problem is that each of those guys would likely be a 5th starter or bubble guy in many rotations.... and that is them performing to their ability, any slip and you get 2013 versions of Worley and Diamond. Not good. The only way out of this mess is if Gibson, Meyer and May all develop to their ceilings or a few good FA acquisitions. I don't want another 90 loss season in 2014....

#6 Thegrin

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:18 AM

I don't think it is so much about money in 2014. The FA pitchers are horrible, for the most part. The Twins are going to have to work with what they have.

#7 Brandon

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:23 AM

I bet the Twins resign Pelfry. He's been an ok pitcher the last few months. That gives the rotation 3 ok starters for next season assuming Dedunno comes back. and I am counting Corriea and the other ok starter. Meyer should be up at some point so the beginning of the season would be a tryout for 2 starting pitchers until Meyer is ready unless the Twins go out and sign another pitcher. With the bullpen as good as it is the Twins just need pitchers that can pitch 5-6 ok innings per game occasionally going longer to give the pen a rest. The Twins were banking on a better offense this season to get us to .500. I feel like we will still be one starter short next year though.

#8 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:27 AM

I see Deduno has likely having some serious arm trouble and would be out of the picture.

I would want the Twins to pursue one of the top 3-4 FA pitchers, throw money at one of them, and then hope for the best. I would NOT want them to try two mediocre pitchers again.

#9 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:28 AM

Pelfrey? Pelfrey? He has been merely ok for the past month after being TERRIBLE for much of the season. I am flabbergasted every time someone mentions resigning complete mediocrity or worse for millions of bucks. The Twins can toss that out there for the league minimum and also hope that one or two of them turns the corner (Gibson and Worley or Hendriks).

#10 Steve Lein

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:42 AM

Pelfrey? Pelfrey? He has been merely ok for the past month after being TERRIBLE for much of the season. I am flabbergasted every time someone mentions resigning complete mediocrity or worse for millions of bucks. The Twins can toss that out there for the league minimum and also hope that one or two of them turns the corner (Gibson and Worley or Hendriks).


This. 1000x this.

The Twins don't need any more #4 or #5 starters, they already have more than a whole rotations worth of them!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's time to spend some of that money they say they have and fix the freakin' problem, or at least atttempt to fix the problem in a way they really have never tried before, because the way they've always done it is what got them here in the first place.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#11 blindeke

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:51 AM

They should sign one quality starter (expensive), maybe take a flier on 1-2 guys w/ upside. Then they should pray.

#12 mike wants wins

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:51 AM

Right, if you are going crappy, go with the cheap AAA pitchers, don't sign bad veterans that have proven they are bad. I'd rather Swarzak get another shot than watch KC, Pelfry, Marquis v2.
Lighten up Francis....

#13 mike wants wins

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:52 AM

They should sign one quality starter (expensive), maybe take a flier on 1-2 guys w/ upside. Then they should pray.


Great 4th post!
Lighten up Francis....

#14 Monkeypaws

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 07:56 AM

The Twins don't need any more #4 or #5 starters, they already have more than a whole rotations worth of them!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Actually, if the Twins had a rotation of true MLB 4-5 starters, they'd be close to .500.

This lot is more like 6-7 starters.

As Pelfrey's fastball velocity has returned to the mid 90s, he has gotten better results. He would be worth keeping at the right price. (Remember, this guy was on the same timetable roughly as Scott Baker, who is just now getting his feet wet again in A ball.)

#15 Shane Wahl

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:26 AM

I am more ok with rolling the dice (eventually) with pitchers who COULD be 2s or 3s for a good team--Meyer, Gibson, and May--then I have been with rolling the dice to find out who could be a 5th starter for a good team.

Clearly Meyer is going to be on an innings limit next year. If he can manage to get back to 2012 numbers through the AFL and whatever else, they can build towards 150-160. Now, DEAR GOD, can I get a witness on this now . . . don't do with Meyer what they did with Gibson this year. Do NOT do that. 100 innings for the Twins is what I want. There's a way to, you know, limit innings in AAA. Christ, this year's Albers might be Pat Dean down there next year, so let Pat Dean be Meyer's personal long relief guy. Hopefully the Twins can roll with Gibson, May, and Meyer all together by July 1st. Maybe Diamond's injury is figured out. Correia returns to mediocrity. Keep Hendriks and Hernandez around and shed more oldster AAA pitching. Give Darnell a try if things get that far in the toilet. These later three are young enough and have a modicum of upside. No more multi-millions spent on aging, declining pitchers who have no future in baseball.

#16 spycake

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 08:32 AM

It's pretty bad that even our most encouraging MLB starter performance from 2013 (Deduno) posted 3.4 BB/9 and only 5.6 K/9.

And our next most encouraging is Mike Pelfrey, who's had a strong second half to boost his ERA+ to 84. I'm sure now that he's fully recovered, we will see that figure continue climbing all the way up to his career mark of... 91.

#17 Willihammer

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:01 AM

MBL and NPB have already started negotiations that would cap posting fees for players. The resuilt of this would be that when high profile arms like Tanaka post, multiple teams can win the right to compete with each other over salary (posting fees don't count against the luxury tax, salaries do).

We are all well aware that TR doesn't like to outbid other teams on FAs. So if Tanaka elects to post this winter (every indication is that he will) then it could be his only chance to get exclusive bargaining rights with one of these aces from Japan.

They need to make that happen. They need to win Tanaka's posting auction.

#18 SweetOne69

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:03 AM

I believe the Twins' got what they expected from Correia. I also believe that they like what they see from Pelfrey and will re-sign him. Remember the Pelfrey is only 18 months removed from TJ Surgery. Is performance is very similar to Nathan's (struggled the 1st half of the season and performed very well in the 2nd half).

#19 Supfin99

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:36 AM

What free agent should the Twins go after? The market for starters this year is the same as last year, basically junk. Last year there were 2 good startes available, Greinke and Sanchez, and neither were coming anywhere near the Twins unless we gave them offers that were so ridiculous they couldn't say no. This year you have Ervin Santana and Matt Garza. @ more guys that you would have to overpay to come here. The rest of ot is a scrap heap of guys who will make more than they deserve. The Twins line-up is about 2 years away from being talented enough and experienced enough to possibly contend. Why waste money now of overpriced free agent pitching so we can win 72 ball games next year instead of 68. Let the young guys like Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, Pinto and Buxton play next year and gain experience. Let Diamond, Worley, Hendricks, and Deduno work thru things and see who can make it. Let May, Meyer and Gibson get their taste. Get to 2015 and you might have an idea who is major league quality and have a lineup that is just seasoned enough to make some noise. Contending and winning championships is why I am a fan. I still watch most games but this time of year I could care less about wins. I am watching to see how the young guys perform and develop. I could care less if we avoid 100 losses or whatever nonsense the media writes about at this time of year. Honestly, if 100 losses would get a higher pick with a higher ceiling, it wouldn't bother me at all.

#20 mike wants wins

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:47 AM

In 91 the Twins were coming off a terrible year, and signed two high priced FAs and won the world series......you should always be trying to make your team better.

Gibson is over 25, he should not be getting a "taste" next year.
Pelfrey, before the injury, was not a very good pitcher, as pointed out above.

You can add a good player next year, w/o blocking a legit prospect.
Lighten up Francis....

#21 birdwatcher

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:51 AM

Very good synopsis, Nick. The SP dilemna has been exasperating on so many levels. It starts with the failure to find a single SP who deserves to be regarded as a #2-3 guy. That's on Ryan, although the thin FA market last winter didn't do him any favors, and neither did the lack of surplus trading chips.

Equally exasperating to me was that so many pitchers with the prospects of being at least a serviceable #3 starter faltered. Diamond and Worley being the most obvious.

To me, they're in the same situation as last year. They need to find two SP's from outside the organization who pan out as legit #2-3 guys. Ryan didn't get results last winter. If he fails to get results again this upcoming winter, then I'll agree with much of the harsh criticism that he perhaps a little unfairly received this year IMO.

#22 Brandon

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 09:53 AM

Pelfry (league average) at 5-6 million next year + inexpensive (well above average) bullpen and the fact that Pelfry wants to be here = Terry Ryan formula for inexpensive rotation spot + above average odds for slightly above average pitching in that spot = above average chance to win with average offense. We only need one or 2 above average starting pitchers + 3 average ones to go along with a good bullpen = above league average pitching staff. Resigning Pelfry will help keep that cost down. Twins like keeping costs down. I do not see how this is not an obvious decision to resign him?

#23 AScheib50

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:05 AM

Where does everyone stand on the likes of Lincecum and Josh Johnson? I can't get pumped about either, but at the same time I'd happily take one or both because they have the chance to be GIANT upgrades. Both make you pretty nervous, though, Lincecum because of his drastic drop off over the last few years and Johnson because, well, his ERA was somewhere near 6 this year and he's always hurt. He was striking a lot of guys out though before he got hurt again.

#24 Oxtung

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:11 AM

My problem with last years FA pitcher signings was the lack of upside. Even if Correia and Pelfrey pitched as well as they could, and admittedly Correia has, they are still 4th or 5th starters. I do not want the Twins to go with that approach again because it does nothing to help this team return to contention. Either sign a good pitcher like Garza, a high upside reclamation project like Josh Johnson and The Freak, or let our in house options see what they can do over a full season. We need to start finding long term options and Correia, Pelfrey, et al are not it.

#25 golfboy1

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:45 AM

What free agent should the Twins go after? The market for starters this year is the same as last year, basically junk. Last year there were 2 good startes available, Greinke and Sanchez, and neither were coming anywhere near the Twins unless we gave them offers that were so ridiculous they couldn't say no. This year you have Ervin Santana and Matt Garza. @ more guys that you would have to overpay to come here. The rest of ot is a scrap heap of guys who will make more than they deserve. The Twins line-up is about 2 years away from being talented enough and experienced enough to possibly contend. Why waste money now of overpriced free agent pitching so we can win 72 ball games next year instead of 68. Let the young guys like Sano, Hicks, Arcia, Dozier, Rosario, Pinto and Buxton play next year and gain experience. Let Diamond, Worley, Hendricks, and Deduno work thru things and see who can make it. Let May, Meyer and Gibson get their taste. Get to 2015 and you might have an idea who is major league quality and have a lineup that is just seasoned enough to make some noise. Contending and winning championships is why I am a fan. I still watch most games but this time of year I could care less about wins. I am watching to see how the young guys perform and develop. I could care less if we avoid 100 losses or whatever nonsense the media writes about at this time of year. Honestly, if 100 losses would get a higher pick with a higher ceiling, it wouldn't bother me at all.




This is the crux of the problem. Santana & Garza are decent pitchers but even they aren't really THAT great. Who else is really worth the money they will get? I don't think Lincecum is going to be worth what he will get & most of the rest look like back end filler.

I guess Phil Hughes might be worth the risk since his splits indicate he is much better away from Yankee stadium.

I can see resigning Pelfrey if the price is right. His ERA in July was 3.25 & it was 3.60 for August.

Correia
Pelfrey
Gibson
Hendriks

& whomever else sticks. Maybe Hughes will sign. It's not looking that great but I think we might as well get ready for one more crappy year before things improve. Hopefully Meyers will debut at some point to give us a legit top of the rotation pitcher.

#26 DJL44

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:51 AM

Go with upside. Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, Phil Hughes and Scott Baker. I think the guys currently in the rotation showed they aren't playoff caliber pitchers.

#27 Teflon

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:54 AM

What about Will Chase? I remember reading this headline from John Bonnes on Twins Daily last year [COLOR=#2E2E2E][FONT=Helvetica]Terry Ryan: Twins Will Chase "Pretty Darn Good" Pitcher[/FONT][/COLOR]
but then heard nothing about him after.

#28 frightwig

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 10:59 AM

Will Chase is the next Sidd Finch.

#29 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 11:07 AM

I know it's a pipe dream, but I'd go hard after Tanaka. The Twins have some decent guys in AA (Meyer, May, Baxendale) and in AAA (Darnell) that are all in the "near ready" state next year to go with some marginal upside guys in Hendricks, Worley, Diamond, and Deduno that should get some time as well. As much as I hate to say it, I think the Twins will make one addition to the rotation.. if that. I'd rather that be the highest upside guy they can get, which I think this season will be Tanaka. I'd settle for Hughes, as I think he'd flourish outside of New York, but I want Tanaka.

#30 Nick Nelson

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Posted 04 September 2013 - 11:08 AM

I think people need to stop getting caught up with free agent pitchers being "worth" the money they'll get. Yes, the Twins are going to have to take risks and overpay if they want to get guys with mid-rotation potential. That's an inevitability, but the team unfortunately has no choice if they want to get better. The alternative is either trading top prospects to get above-average guys from other organizations or limping through another year of ineptitude with the same old bargain-bin trash while preserving that incredibly low payroll. Why does anyone care so much at this point about how money much is spent on acquiring pitching help?