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Rule 4 Draft

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#1 twinsnorth49

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 04:01 PM

Who we taking?, Do we get Appel? If not do we take Buxton or go for Giolito? Do we take the pitching or go for the best available player, if that is not the same thing. Gausman, Fried? Who, who, thoughts, opinions???

#2 VodkaDave

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 04:25 PM

You always go for the best available player (unless there were sign-ability issues etc). Especially with the number 2 pick.

#3 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:51 PM

I'm not trying to be rude but I am not a fan of the "Best Player Available" cop out. I want to talk names and who does everyone think IS the BPA. I get the concept of BPA but it doesn't mean that much. In 2008 the Rays thought they were drafting the BPA in Tim Beckham, he was the "Toolsy" pick. So far he has been terrible and i would be surprised if he makes it. They passed on Buster Posey who at the time I said would be a home run pick for them because it was a position of need, he was a home town guy, and he was an absolute BEAST in college. That same year the Orioles went with a player of need (also a bad strategy) and picked the highest ranked pitcher in that draft in Brian Matusz. So far he hasn't looked great but could still be a player of value. But looking at it now it doesn't matter if they picked Wieters the year before because Posey looks to be a perennial all star. That being said it was a weak pitching draft in 2008. Sometimes the answer is obvious and sometimes less clear. I am not a fan of Buxton. The scouting sites are drooling over him(just as they did for Beckham) and I just don't see it, the label "potential" and "toolsy" are used for him a lot but he sounds a lot like Aaron Hicks(great fielder, great arm, power potential, bat isn't there yet, bad competition). Maybe it's because I don't trust anyone who scouts say are "toolsy," ultimately I could be wrong about him but he has .250 hitter written all over him. I also don't trust Appel. He has the look and the "stuff" but has given up too many hits and struck out too few. For the #2 pick you better DOMINATE in college to be considered. If it were me it would be down to Zunino, Zimmer, Giolito, and wild card McCullers. Zunino is the real deal(just like Posey) because of his ability to stick behind the plate. He reminds me a lot of Pudge Rodriguez and at worst he will be a Yadier Molina type which I can live with. He is the "safe" pick but like I said with Posey I think years down the road there are gonna be a few teams who will regret passing on this young man because of "need." I like Zimmer a lot as well. He has great control, a very good fast ball, and room to grow because he's only been a pitcher for one year. He also has a very smooth delivery and big body which usually equates to durability.He has also dominated the competition. The dip in his velocity in his most recent outing makes me nervous also his inexperience but if it's college pitcher I think he's the way to go. I know Giolito is injured but I don't think it's a reason to shy away from him. He could move quick because of his polish like Clayton Kershaw and has Halliday comps. he is a risk but I'd rather take it with him than with Buxton. Plus if his injury does result in Tommy John at least he's really young and has the ability to get back on track fast (tommy john recovery is getting better by the year). You just can't teach his size and 100MPH fastball. McCullers is my wild card because he has absolutely destroyed high school hitters and I don't see his control issues. He's walked very few, struck out a ton, given up literally no runs, and has enough "stuff" to be a dominant starter. The reason he has dropped is because some view him as a future reliever, he's smaller than the others mentioned, and his mechanics are a bit unorthodox. Sounds a little like Lincecum to me(although pretty different) I'm also interested in what everyone thinks about the supplemental round guys we could look at. obviously that discussion is different because who knows if those guys will be around and it probably depends on our first pick but I'm gonna throw a few names out that have stuck out to me. P Marcus Stroman, P Ty Hansley, 3B Rio Ruiz, C Josh Elander, OF Victor Roache, OF Tyler Naquin, P Taylore Cherry, C/1B Peter O'Brian, P Brandon Kline, P Matt Smoral, P TJ Oakes(we will end up with him, I'm just not sure which round)

#4 DaTwins

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 05:58 PM

^ #SCOUT I like Zunino!

#5 Seth Stohs

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 06:13 PM

I like Appel, I like Zunino, I like Buxton, I like a lot of them... but I'm not going to pretend I know who the right person to draft is. I'd be good with whoever the Twins take with the #2 pick because at that spot, they're taking a consensus top pick that all other teams would have been happy to draft.

#6 Riverbrian

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 06:31 PM

Same boat as Seth. I have no idea who has talent and who doesn't. In Baseball drafts it typically takes awhile for the draftee to reach the majors if they do at all so I believe drafting for need is nearly impossible since needs are likely to change before they are ripe. So BPA makes sense to me. With that said. This year there is a need and a large one. MLB ready prospects... Especially on the mound. So I am hoping for a college pitcher. Who that is I'll take any opinions and go with it.

#7 nicksaviking

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 06:33 PM

I was also pretty high on McCullers. He was being discussed as a top three pick all year until a couple months ago. Didn't make much sense to me. I want an ace so damn bad.

#8 The Greatest Poster Alive

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 10:20 PM

I want college arms. Maybe not #2 overall, but this draft needs to end with the twins having a couple high end rotation type prospects. The system needs fresh arms injected into it.

#9 John Bonnes

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 11:11 PM

Are there any high end rotation types? It doesnt sound like there's much like that in his year's draft. Giolito's health, Appel's K rate, ZImmer's velocity, etc. there is no use targeting these guys if they aren't who we want them to be.

#10 Shane Wahl

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 11:35 PM

I'm not trying to be rude but I am not a fan of the "Best Player Available" cop out. I want to talk names and who does everyone think IS the BPA. I get the concept of BPA but it doesn't mean that much. In 2008 the Rays thought they were drafting the BPA in Tim Beckham, he was the "Toolsy" pick. So far he has been terrible and i would be surprised if he makes it. They passed on Buster Posey who at the time I said would be a home run pick for them because it was a position of need, he was a home town guy, and he was an absolute BEAST in college. That same year the Orioles went with a player of need (also a bad strategy) and picked the highest ranked pitcher in that draft in Brian Matusz. So far he hasn't looked great but could still be a player of value. But looking at it now it doesn't matter if they picked Wieters the year before because Posey looks to be a perennial all star. That being said it was a weak pitching draft in 2008. Sometimes the answer is obvious and sometimes less clear. I am not a fan of Buxton. The scouting sites are drooling over him(just as they did for Beckham) and I just don't see it, the label "potential" and "toolsy" are used for him a lot but he sounds a lot like Aaron Hicks(great fielder, great arm, power potential, bat isn't there yet, bad competition). Maybe it's because I don't trust anyone who scouts say are "toolsy," ultimately I could be wrong about him but he has .250 hitter written all over him. I also don't trust Appel. He has the look and the "stuff" but has given up too many hits and struck out too few. For the #2 pick you better DOMINATE in college to be considered. If it were me it would be down to Zunino, Zimmer, Giolito, and wild card McCullers.

Zunino is the real deal(just like Posey) because of his ability to stick behind the plate. He reminds me a lot of Pudge Rodriguez and at worst he will be a Yadier Molina type which I can live with. He is the "safe" pick but like I said with Posey I think years down the road there are gonna be a few teams who will regret passing on this young man because of "need."

I like Zimmer a lot as well. He has great control, a very good fast ball, and room to grow because he's only been a pitcher for one year. He also has a very smooth delivery and big body which usually equates to durability.He has also dominated the competition. The dip in his velocity in his most recent outing makes me nervous also his inexperience but if it's college pitcher I think he's the way to go.

I know Giolito is injured but I don't think it's a reason to shy away from him. He could move quick because of his polish like Clayton Kershaw and has Halliday comps. he is a risk but I'd rather take it with him than with Buxton. Plus if his injury does result in Tommy John at least he's really young and has the ability to get back on track fast (tommy john recovery is getting better by the year). You just can't teach his size and 100MPH fastball.

McCullers is my wild card because he has absolutely destroyed high school hitters and I don't see his control issues. He's walked very few, struck out a ton, given up literally no runs, and has enough "stuff" to be a dominant starter. The reason he has dropped is because some view him as a future reliever, he's smaller than the others mentioned, and his mechanics are a bit unorthodox. Sounds a little like Lincecum to me(although pretty different)

I'm also interested in what everyone thinks about the supplemental round guys we could look at. obviously that discussion is different because who knows if those guys will be around and it probably depends on our first pick but I'm gonna throw a few names out that have stuck out to me. P Marcus Stroman, P Ty Hansley, 3B Rio Ruiz, C Josh Elander, OF Victor Roache, OF Tyler Naquin, P Taylore Cherry, C/1B Peter O'Brian, P Brandon Kline, P Matt Smoral, P TJ Oakes(we will end up with him, I'm just not sure which round)


Wow. Boom. Seconded, though I think in a month you will change your tune about Appel. Zimmer is my only other serious contender for what I think the Twins should do, honestly. I am calling it now, Kevin Plawecki will be a better major league catcher than Zunino. He can be had in round 3 or so, probably. I have seen him, which is a bias, I know. He is also calling games this year for Purdue brilliantly with some starters that really aren't that great but are shutting out teams.

#11 Shane Wahl

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Posted 13 April 2012 - 11:38 PM

Pitchers who throw the ball hard, lefties who do whatever, catchers, and third basemen (who stick there) are the true team needs. It just so happens that those needs are also in the "need to be ready for MLB pretty soon" category, so I am hoping that the Twins take more college players than the normally do.

#12 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 02:14 AM

I am no scout, just a draft geek with limited information, access to youtube videos, and a general distrust for scouts. shane, I don't really understand your second post, the twins have taken college pitchers at the top of the draft quite frequently and if you look at their history they don't take many high schoolers overall. After the first few rounds they generally take college guys. Also Plawecki looks like a good prospect but i doubt he is better than Zunino. He's posted good numbers in college but really struggled to make contact in the cape cod league. He doesn't have the power potential as Zunino but I think he could hit around 10 homers a year at best, what actually impresses me with Plawecki is his BB/K ratio, he's an on base machine. they could take a chance on him in the 2nd or 3rd and that seems like a good bet. I like Elander as well but I don't like that his "raw power" has not shown up in games. Also he's been called a "gamer" which makes me think he's gonna be a catching Nick Punto.......I guess there could be worse things. Peter O'Brian is also intriguing because his power has shown up in games although he seems pretty weak defensively, he is a senior though and with the new CBA he may end up being cheap. I do hope we end up with a catcher at some point early because when Chris Hermann is your best catching prospect there's a problem. I want to like Appel but he just seems to be another Luke Hochevar, lots of hype, not that much results. I read a scouting report where someone was raving about his numbers and saying he has dominated the competition with a 3+ ERA. Yeah in pro ball that's really good but in college that doesn't stand out to me as dominating numbers. I hope he does well but it's hard when he gets knocked around so much. BTW, does Kevin Gausman remind anyone else of Shooter Hunt? One last thing. I think I'm going to remove Ty Hansley from my wish list in the supplemental round. After watching some video the guy gets velocity solely from his arm, he's gonna be an injury concern most of his career.

#13 shs_59

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 04:42 AM

Despite having the #2 overall pick this June. I think its important not to overlook the 6 picks in the top 100. Thats a LOT more picks than most teams, have 3 or 4 in the top 100. The Twins also, under the new CBA arrangement, have THE MOST alloted Money to spend on this years draft. So if there is any "unsignable" guys to take this year in the early rounds, The Twins are in Great postiion to do so. If there is a Josh Bell OFer in this years draft and falls to the 2nd or 3rd round, the Twins could take him and likely pay the neccesary money to sign him (whoever he is) that other teams likely couldn't come close to matching. Problem is this year's talent pool seems thinner than most of the last few years. My vote would be between Buxton, Zunino, Zimmer, and I guess Appel. I'll be really interested to see if they can get a Victor Roache or an Alberto Almora or David Dahl type of player in the supple. round.

Top Twins prospects ? 1.Byron Buxton (OF-A+)
2.Miguel Sano (3B-AA) 3.Alex Meyer (SP-AAA) 4. Kohl Stewart (SP-A) 5. J.O. Berrios (P-AA) 6.Nick Gordon (SS-RK)  7. *Josmil Pinto (C-AAA) 8.Jorge Polanco (2B-AA)  9. L. Thorpe (SP-A) 10. *Trevor May (SP-AAA) 11.Kennys Vargas (1B-AAA) 12.Travis Harrison (OF-A+) 13.Eddie Rosario (2B-AA) 14. Max Kepler (OF-A+) 15.Nick Burdi (RP-A)  Just Missed :P P Tyler Duffey, SS Aderlin Mejia, P Stephen Gonsalves, C Stuart Turner.


#14 kirbyelway

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 06:41 AM

One thing about the MLB Draft is there is no sure thing. You take who you think is the best player and hope it works out. For every Chipper Jones there is a Brien Taylor.

#15 asmus_ndsu

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 07:31 AM

One thing about the MLB Draft is there is no sure thing. You take who you think is the best player and hope it works out. For every Chipper Jones there is a Brien Taylor.


Shooter hunt?

#16 Seth Stohs

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 07:44 AM

Pitchers who throw the ball hard, lefties who do whatever, catchers, and third basemen (who stick there) are the true team needs. It just so happens that those needs are also in the "need to be ready for MLB pretty soon" category, so I am hoping that the Twins take more college players than the normally do.


But what will the team's needs be in 3 years when these guys approach the big leagues... (granted, guys who throw hard or or left-handed will always be valuable.)

#17 twinsnorth49

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 09:57 AM

With 6 picks in the top 100 the Twins could afford to take the BPA with the 2 pick and stock up on some hard throwers with a few others, as Seth points out those type of guys are always valuable. I'm not sure there are any "high-end" rotation types anyway so using the 2 pick on someone who you hope fits that category might not be the best option. However, I will never manage an MLB team,nor should I, so this is my half-assed,armchair opinion.

#18 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 10:07 AM

The Twins have such a deprivation of good pitchers coming through their system that they can't afford to take the BPA, they actually need to do some scouting, and they need to pull off some serious Moneyball magic to get some good guys. Remember, the Moneyball strategy might have netted the A's some guys that were never heard from, but Moneyball picks that I can think of that made it to the majors are Swisher, Zito, Giambi, Hudson, Mulder, Teahen, and Chad Bradford (traded for, but still a good pickup). It is possible to score big in the draft, you just have to look past the BS "toolsy" label and go straight for their stats.

#19 J-Dog Dungan

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 10:12 AM

Zunino, Zimmer, and Giolito are all guys the Twins should pretend to look at, but not really even think about taking. Zunino is at a position that we currently only need a backup for, Zimmer, while a college pitcher sounds a little shaky to be hedging your bets on, and the Twins should know better than to take a high school player who is coming off of major surgery. As it is said in Moneyball, college players are at least four times as likely to make it to the majors as high school players, because they face better competition and have developed their stuff more and their stats actually mean something.

#20 righty8383

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 10:44 AM

the Twins should know better than to take a high school player who is coming off of major surgery. .


Who exactly are you refering to? Giolito never had surgery as far as I know.

Edited by righty8383, 14 April 2012 - 10:47 AM.


#21 jorgenswest

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Posted 14 April 2012 - 11:34 AM

Some data below from baseball reference. I used data through 2011 which is problematic since some have barely begun their careers. There will be a little bias in favor of college players.



[TABLE="width: 431"]
[TR]
[TD]Pick[/TD]
[TD]Status[/TD]
[TD]selected[/TD]
[TD]majors?[/TD]
[TD]WAR 10+[/TD]
[TD]WAR 30+[/TD]
[TD]WAR 50+[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]college[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]college[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]college[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]college[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]95[/TD]
[TD]85[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]HS[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]HS[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]HS[/TD]
[TD]26[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]HS[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]93[/TD]
[TD]69[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

While it is clear that a player selected from college has a better chance of playing in the majors. It is not clear that they have a better chance of being a significant major league player.

#22 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 11:16 AM

So with Zimmer's last horrific start that puts a serious question mark on him. He could be hurt but if he doesn't get his velocity back up he could end up being available at the 32nd pick. I really want an ace College pitcher who is close to the bigs but there are just too many questions around the players in this draft that I wouldn't want to reach for a need and end up with Adam Johnson. Appel's hitability(10 hits last game) and high pitch counts(149 last game!), Zimmer's dropped velocity, Gausman's control, Watcha's lack of a 3rd pitch, Stroman's size and lack of a 3rd pitch. Those are the only ones who profile as a potential ace. To me it's down to Zunino, McCullers, and Giolito. I know we need pitching and we currently have a catcher but the system's weak and Zunino won't be up until late 2013 or 2014 at the earliest and alot could happen in that time. Morneau could be gone or the permanent DH potentially moving Mauer to 1B or even 3B and being a back-up catcher. If anything Zunino could be trade bait down the road to get that ace we need so he's my favorite as of now. Of course I was happy with the Shooter Hunt pick, really liked Ben Tootle, and thought that Derrick McCallum was gonna be the 2B of the future so I'm wrong a lot.

#23 Fanatic Jack

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 11:23 AM

Mark Appel or Zimmer. We dont need another outfielder.

#24 DaTwins

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 11:28 AM

Giolito never had surgery as far as I know.


You're right, he didn't get surgery. But it was his UCL, so that's kind of scary.

#25 DaTwins

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 11:34 AM

In response to the post with the college vs. high school WAR stats: Baseball Prospectus did a piece, maybe a year ago or so, that showed that the gap between high school and college picks is narrowing, even to the point where high schoolers may now be a relative bargain. I remember one thing they attributed this too was better scouting and more information on these kids. I could find the link, but it's probably behind the paywall anyway.

#26 DaTwins

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 11:41 AM

Also, what kind of player do you feel most comfortable with the Twins developing? Personally, I see no evidence that the Twins could transform Appell or Zimmer into aces. But I would trust them Byron Buxton given their track record with developing even less-touted outfielders in Hunter, Span and Revere. As for my pick, Zunino, I don't think they could screw him up, just get the kid to the majors.

#27 twinsfanstreif

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Posted 15 April 2012 - 11:55 AM

Mark Appel or Zimmer. We dont need another outfielder.


This is the exact attitude that gets teams in trouble. Go back and look at old drafts. You could go through those drafts and say "We could've had him?!" a bunch of times but no one remembers that we were over stocked with outfielders or we really needed pitching that year. All people look at is we passed on Chase Utley for Adam Johnson or we drafted Ryan Mills instead of C.C. Sabathia. If you tunnel vision yourself into only college pitchers then you could end up with Kyle Sleeth when Nick Markakis was on the board. Not saying we should stay away completely or that we should draft another outfielder, just that this draft is really shaky when it comes to college pitchers. There are some years with a Verlander or two and there are others with a bunch of Adam Johnson's and Kyle Sleeth's.