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The Twins don't use advanced metrics

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#1 Monkeypaws

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 04:52 PM

I see this again and again on the forums. Would someone please post where they read that the entire Twins organization ignores this information?

I'd be satisfied with just a Terry Ryan Ron Gardenhire expose.

Thanks.

#2 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 04:54 PM

I wouldn't go as far as to say they don't use them.
But, certainly by their own admission they don't use them very much.

Twins thrive without sabermetrics - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

#3 Ozziedavisfan

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 04:59 PM

which is a good thing.

#4 Monkeypaws

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:02 PM

Thanks for the post - like Neyer. It is from 2010 though.

That the Twins were thriving was a tip-off :D

#5 old nurse

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:20 PM

Thanks for the post - like Neyer. It is from 2010 though.

That the Twins were thriving was a tip-off :D


A little more recent article.
It still won't convince the negative people.

Minnesota Twins join 'Moneyball' era behind mystery man - TwinCities.com

#6 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:28 PM

which is a good thing.


I guess the success that the more advanced metric friendly organizations are enjoying must be just luck, eh?
And the Twins sudden lack of success must just be bad luck?

Embracing statistics changed the entire history of the Boston Red Sox, gave them their first taste of a WS championship in 100 years.
It also has allowed the Rays, a true small market team (not a mid market team like us), to thrive in a division with 2 of the biggest payrolls in the sport.

Advanced metrics is not voodoo. Its not witchcraft. IMO it's not even at odds with the "eye test". In many ways it's a template for putting what shows up in the "eye test" into data that can be used to compare multiple players. When you use advanced metrics to look back historically, it generally matches up pretty well with who people using the "eye test" considered to be the best.
In many cases, certain advanced metrics have been shown to be very accurate predictors of future performances.

I really don't get where all the hate for advanced metrics comes from. They are not "made up" numbers. They measure something just like any other metric does. It's up to each person to determine how they wan't to use those numbers.

It's one thing to take in as much information you can, and decide what you think is worth using, and what is worth throwing out. But to completely close your mind to it, and not even take any of in, to not even bother to consider any of it, well I just can't understand it. And the teams that choose to operate are, and will continue to fall further and further behind.

It will be fun to watch the Twins rebuild versus the Cubs rebuild.
Both teams hired their current GM at about the same time, but went in completely different directions.
One team hired a more metrics minded, aggressive, young GM, while the other went with the old school, scouting minded, more passive GM. Will be fun to see which one has more success a few years from now.

#7 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:29 PM

A little more recent article.
It still won't convince the negative people.

Minnesota Twins join 'Moneyball' era behind mystery man - TwinCities.com


They hired 1 guy. What is this supposed to convince me of?
I said in my first post that they use it, just not as much as most teams.
A team like the Rays or the Red Sox have dozens of stat guys.

#8 old nurse

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:30 PM

I guess the success that the more advanced metric friendly organizations are enjoying must be just luck, eh?
And the Twins sudden lack of success must just be bad luck?

Embracing statistics changed the entire history of the Boston Red Sox, gave them their first taste of a WS championship in 100 years.
It also has allowed the Rays, a true small market team (not a mid market team like us), to thrive in a division with 2 of the biggest payrolls in the sport.

Advanced metrics is not voodoo. Its not witchcraft. IMO it's not even at odds with the "eye test". In many ways it's a template for putting what shows up in the "eye test" into data that can be used to compare multiple players. When you use advanced metrics to look back historically, it generally matches up pretty well with who people using the "eye test" considered to be the best.
In many cases, certain advanced metrics have been shown to be very accurate predictors of future performances.

I really don't get where all the hate for advanced metrics comes from. They are not "made up" numbers. They measure something just like any other metric does. It's up to each person to determine how they wan't to use those numbers.

It's one thing to take in as much information you can, and decide what you think is worth using, and what is worth throwing out. But to completely close your mind to it, and not even take any of in, to not even bother to consider any of it, well I just can't understand it. And the teams that choose to operate are, and will continue to fall further and further behind.

It will be fun to watch the Twins rebuild versus the Cubs rebuild.
Both teams hired their current GM at about the same time, but went in completely different directions.
One team hired a more metrics minded, aggressive, young GM, while the other went with the old school, scouting minded, more passive GM. Will be fun to see which one has more success a few years from now.


Yep Jack Goins does diddly for his job with the Twins.

#9 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:39 PM

Yep Jack Goins does diddly for his job with the Twins.


Again, it's one guy. That puts them way behind the 8 ball compared to other teams.

An excavation firm with 1 backhoe cannot move as much earth as an excavation firm with 10 backhoe's.

Did you not see where I explicitly said that they use advanced metrics, but not as much as other teams, or did you just choose to ignore it? And that is by their own admission, so I really don't see why we are debating that.

Edited by Mr. Brooks, 22 August 2013 - 05:54 PM.


#10 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 05:50 PM

Rob Neyer sums up the one guy we hired pretty well:

[FONT=verdana]I don't see any way around this ... the Twins are way, way behind most of the other good teams in this area. Hiring "a guy," however talented, isn't going to change this. I can tell you stories about other sabermetric-unfriendly teams that have hired guys -- smart guys, all of them -- and then ignored 95 percent of their advice. You wonder why they even bothered. I think sometimes the general managers sincerely believed the information was valuable but just didn't have any idea how to use it; sometimes they were just doing what they thought they were supposed to do ("Hire nerd to play around with numbers: check.") [/FONT]

#11 TheLeviathan

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 06:00 PM

Rob Neyer sums up the one guy we hired pretty well:

[FONT=verdana]I don't see any way around this ... the Twins are way, way behind most of the other good teams in this area. Hiring "a guy," however talented, isn't going to change this. I can tell you stories about other sabermetric-unfriendly teams that have hired guys -- smart guys, all of them -- and then ignored 95 percent of their advice. You wonder why they even bothered. I think sometimes the general managers sincerely believed the information was valuable but just didn't have any idea how to use it; sometimes they were just doing what they thought they were supposed to do ("Hire nerd to play around with numbers: check.") [/FONT]


Neyer clearly hates the Twins and always has. At least, that's what I'm sure we will hear. I like that the Twins use old fashion methods too, but there is clearly room to expand in advanced metrics. THis is, and should be, a fair point of criticism.

#12 Twins Twerp

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 06:05 PM

San Francisco giants DO NOT use advanced metrics. They have been ok last 3 years

I guess the success that the more advanced metric friendly organizations

are enjoying must be just luck, eh?
And the Twins sudden lack of success must just be bad luck?

Embracing statistics changed the entire history of the Boston Red Sox, gave them their first taste of a WS championship in 100 years.
It also has allowed the Rays, a true small market team (not a mid market team like us), to thrive in a division with 2 of the biggest payrolls in the sport.

Advanced metrics is not voodoo. Its not witchcraft. IMO it's not even at odds with the "eye test". In many ways it's a template for putting what shows up in the "eye test" into data that can be used to compare multiple players. When you use advanced metrics to look back historically, it generally matches up pretty well with who people using the "eye test" considered to be the best.
In many cases, certain advanced metrics have been shown to be very accurate predictors of future performances.

I really don't get where all the hate for advanced metrics comes from. They are not "made up" numbers. They measure something just like any other metric does. It's up to each person to determine how they wan't to use those numbers.

It's one thing to take in as much information you can, and decide what you think is worth using, and what is worth throwing out. But to completely close your mind to it, and not even take any of in, to not even bother to consider any of it, well I just can't understand it. And the teams that choose to operate are, and will continue to fall further and further behind.

It will be fun to watch the Twins rebuild versus the Cubs rebuild.
Both teams hired their current GM at about the same time, but went in completely different directions.
One team hired a more metrics minded, aggressive, young GM, while the other went with the old school, scouting minded, more passive GM. Will be fun to see which one has more success a few years from now.


#13 Guest_USAFChief_*

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 06:16 PM

I'm pretty skeptical of much "advanced metrics," at least much of the defensive stuff, and the attempts to arrive at definitive "worths," and/or "wins" from data.

But even I think the Twins as an organization could benefit from an infusion of new thinking. Or at the least I wish I felt confident they had thoroughly investigated everything themselves and arrived at informed conclusions, but I don't. I feel like they intentionally ignore stuff almost out of spiteful arrogance.

#14 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 06:27 PM

San Francisco giants DO NOT use advanced metrics. They have been ok last 3 years


That is not true at all.
Yeshaya Goldfarb is one of the most well respected "stats guy" in all of baseball, and he's been with the Giants for 12 years.

#15 old nurse

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 07:09 PM

Again, it's one guy. That puts them way behind the 8 ball compared to other teams.

An excavation firm with 1 backhoe cannot move as much earth as an excavation firm with 10 backhoe's.

Did you not see where I explicitly said that they use advanced metrics, but not as much as other teams, or did you just choose to ignore it? And that is by their own admission, so I really don't see why we are debating that.


And you know there is no one else working with him?
Assessing numbers once the database is in place is not an overwhelming job. Assessing numbers punched through a computer does not take a lot of time. Hell, Puck can find out stuff in a matter of seconds because he knows where to look. Give people credit for learning what to look at and how to look at it.
Number crunching versus a backhoe? If you move dirt with a backhoe it will take a lot of time, a D-8 works much better.

#16 old nurse

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 07:11 PM

I feel like they intentionally ignore stuff almost out of spiteful arrogance.


That is a lot of people in this world

#17 Ozziedavisfan

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 08:02 PM

hate to bring this up but the Boston red sox's won the ws probably because they had many rameriez ,david oritz, and curt schilling. and you didn't saber metrics to figure that out.

#18 Teflon

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 09:12 PM

I've been working on my own advanced metric to measure specific blown save situations called Times In Trouble In Ninth With Run Issued - Not Game Ending Reliever. (TITINWRINGER.) Ron Davis had a very high TITINWRINGER value.

I'm also working on one to calculate Wins Incremental to Mike Pelfrey's or WIMP.

#19 drjim

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 09:19 PM

I don't think anyone here really knows how much or how little the Twins use certain metrics.

I am quite confident they are not cutting edge when it comes to metrics, but I imagine they are more middle of the pack than we give them credit for. I am not saying this is a good thing, but I also don't think it is the disaster it is often made out to be.
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#20 Oxtung

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Posted 22 August 2013 - 09:22 PM

And you know there is no one else working with him?
Assessing numbers once the database is in place is not an overwhelming job. Assessing numbers punched through a computer does not take a lot of time. Hell, Puck can find out stuff in a matter of seconds because he knows where to look. Give people credit for learning what to look at and how to look at it.
Number crunching versus a backhoe? If you move dirt with a backhoe it will take a lot of time, a D-8 works much better.


What database? Do you think that the Astro's decision sciences division just spend all day on Fangraphs? Teams that are pushing the envelope are hiring professors from Ivy League schools. You don't do that to just look at stuff publicly available. Teams, like the Astros, are trying to create their own metrics and databases that they can then use as an advantage versus teams, like the Twins, that don't have the desire or ability to push the envelope.

My best friend is a professor of statistics at a very highly regarded school. I asked him once what he thought about statistics in baseball, his response was, "What statistics in baseball?" He thought that what was publicly available, and he has attended lectures and seminars on baseball statistics, was so elementary that it should hardly be considered statistics.

Teams looking for a competitive edge are going to be pushing this field creating their own, much more sophisticated models, and we will not see them for quite a while. Don't let that fool you into thinking that what you and I have available is the pinnacle of Sabrmetrics.