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Article: The Miguel Sano Quandry

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#1 Twins Fan From Afar

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 08:49 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...el-Sano-Quandry
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#2 John Bonnes

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 09:07 PM

I'd say this: if you think there is a chance you're going to have him be on the roster on Opening Day - any chance at all - then call him up and see what you see. I wish they had done that with Hicks.

#3 troyhobbs

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 09:43 PM

Give him a Sept call up and start him at AAA next year until he's ready. I don't care if he learns humility so long as he hits bombs. Despite Arcia's struggles he's still arguably been the 2nd best hitter on the team so I have no problem with his early call up this year.

#4 CGNikolic

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 10:00 PM

I know he is a top prospect, but he is just a 20 year old kid hitting .243. While his OPS shows that he is not being over matched at AA, he really is not exactly "tearing the cover off the ball". Is it really worthwhile for the Twins to call him up this September to get him acclimated with being in the big leagues, which he may not be prepared for until 2015 (when he will only just be turning 22 years old by the way)? I say let him finish out the year in AA, then start him next year in AAA and unless he is playing horrible, he will debut by the time 2014 September call-ups come around, and possibly stay up for good. The Twins have already had problems with this player's attitude, would promoting him from AA to the big leagues and then proceeding to send him back down next spring just cause more issues?

#5 Brandon

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 10:09 PM

He doesn't need to go on the 40 man roster this winter so there is absolutely no reason to call him up but AAA is in a pennant race right now while New Britain is not. the Questions should be should we let Sano go up to AAA to finish out their season and play in their playoffs assuming they make it or stay in AA?

Check out my blog post on this from this morning in the blog section.

Edited by Brandon, 07 August 2013 - 10:12 PM.


#6 Kwak

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 10:12 PM

The Twins are going to have to adjust to a different mindset. Arcia and Sano have their own agendas--they aren't going to be Mauer clones! Promoting Sano this season is simply enabling him. This season is in the toilet and "the new wave" won't save it. Invite Sano to Spring training (non-roster) and then assign him to Rochester. Force him to prove himself at AAA before promoting him--and at the very least hold him back to gain the extra year of control. Sano won't make the difference between making/not-making the playoffs in 2014.

#7 Mave

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 11:04 PM

.361/.489/.778(!) for an OPS of... 1.267(!!!) in his last ten games. During this stretch, he has 9 Ks and 8 BB... I would take that for a prodigious power hitter, who generally tend to just strike out more, any day...not to mention a 20 year old with as much power potential as anyone in baseball.

Perhaps we can overlook his first dozen games at AA, where inevitably he was going to struggle seeing as he did make one of the more difficult jumps a ball player can make (as mentioned above), and look at what he is doing recently.

I'd say give the kid a shot come September. Where should we set the Over/Under for how quickly would Target Field sell out upon hearing the news that he was called up? 30 minutes? 45 minutes? 1 hour?

#8 jokin

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Posted 07 August 2013 - 11:40 PM

I know he is a top prospect, but he is just a 20 year old kid hitting .243. While his OPS shows that he is not being over matched at AA, he really is not exactly "tearing the cover off the ball". Is it really worthwhile for the Twins to call him up this September to get him acclimated with being in the big leagues, which he may not be prepared for until 2015 (when he will only just be turning 22 years old by the way)? I say let him finish out the year in AA, then start him next year in AAA and unless he is playing horrible, he will debut by the time 2014 September call-ups come around, and possibly stay up for good. The Twins have already had problems with this player's attitude, would promoting him from AA to the big leagues and then proceeding to send him back down next spring just cause more issues?


Uhhh.... two days in a row, and two very young stars spent an unacceptably long time admiring their home run shots, and were summarily "rewarded" for their "transgression" an AB or two later with plunkings. I refer of course to Bryce Harper and J-Upton. These sorts of "attitude problems" have ways of getting themselves sorted out through the MLB system of justice. Considering what transpired in those 2 situations, I'm not too concerned with promoting Sano sooner rather than later.....Truth be told.... with Twins management confirming that Sano's defense is no longer an issue, Sano has little left to improve upon facing minor league pitchers.

Do you still have doubts? Here's further evidence- although Sano's AA BA is abnormally low, there really is very little to be concerned about. For example- if Sano qualified among the Eastern League statistical leaders, his SLG of .559 would lead the League. His OPS of .914 would be 3rd in the League.

Furthermore, Sano's BB% is better in the EL than in Class A+ (13.8% vs. 11.9%), while his K% is only !% worse in AA over A+. His Isolated Power rate is nearly identical (.321 vs .325).

The one stat that stands out is mostly luck-related. His BABIP at New Britain is only .267, which is way, way below his normal minor league BABIP production number, which has been anywhere between .307 and .422 (it was .397 at Ft Myers this year). I think you'll find that once that BABIP inevitably normalizes (maybe not enough PAs left in this season), Sano's production will look pretty similar to previous seasons. Remember he has 11 HR in 168 PAs at New Britain, and 16 HRs in 243 PAs at Ft Myers, almost the identical rate of HR production per PA.

Bottom line, Sano will be fine.....believe in Ryan when he says how much he thinks of Miguel as a human being- the club needs to turn the page and get an infusion of his type of youthful energization in turning this moribund franchise around. I appreciated Deduno's frustrated passion in the dugout last night. Let's get more of that, not less. Get him up here in September, and get him positioned for a fast track to full-time at 3B at some point early on in 2014.

Edited by jokin, 07 August 2013 - 11:47 PM.


#9 CGNikolic

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 12:05 AM

You have caught me not looking at the advanced statistics of Sano's production.. Well played Mauer. But I feel that the stats and your points prove that Sano is ready to move a level then, but preferably only to AAA. I'd like to see him join AAA soon actually and (as mentioned before in this thread I believe) help Rochester get a playoff berth and experience a playoff push all this fall, then start in Rochester next spring and move up to the big leagues at some point next year when the Twins feel his all around game is ready. I want to see him up here as soon as possible too don't get me wrong, I just don't want to experience another Hicks fiasco (who had also been doing pretty well at AA). And I'm not worried about his attitude, I'm saying that in regards to the Twins and how they seem to be dealing with it.. I think we'd all like to see more emotion and intensity and enthusiasm from this slower than molasses group of players.. But the main question is what do the Twins want? And how will they handle a personality such as Sano when they get a chance to witness it everyday?

#10 raindog

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 04:47 AM

The Omen.

#11 Thrylos

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 06:32 AM

should we let Sano go up to AAA to finish out their season and play in their playoffs assuming they make it or stay in AA?
.


This. Get the kid away from Jeff Smith and the Mitchell Report cheat hitting coach and let him help Rochester win. Then invite him to ST as a non-roster invitee and see whether he will win a job.
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#12 JB_Iowa

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 06:50 AM

My reaction is mixed ... I'd love to see him just to have something of interest to watch in September. I also get the maturity issue and the 40-man issue (although given some of the dreck we have on there, I don't know if it matters that much).

But I have one other reaction: I'm really hoping for a "changing of the guard" in the managerial position after the season. I have some niggling feeling that it might be better to wait on some of the "kids" until after that happens so they all just have a fresh start.

#13 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 06:51 AM

As much as I would like to see him in sept I don't think it's a good idea, I don't see a whole lotta good that comes out of it. If he struggles then who knows, if he does well, then you have to start him next year in the majors and burn a year of team control. Keep him in AA the rest of the year, start him in AAA next year and call him up in June

#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 07:16 AM

He doesn't need to go on the 40 man roster this winter so there is absolutely no reason to call him up but AAA is in a pennant race right now while New Britain is not. the Questions should be should we let Sano go up to AAA to finish out their season and play in their playoffs assuming they make it or stay in AA?

Check out my blog post on this from this morning in the blog section.


Agreed. The secret third option seems most prudent. Ignore the average, as pointed out above it has been just fine since he put his opening two week jitters behind him. Taking two weeks to adjust to AA pitching is another reason not to bring him to the majors just yet. This NB team is the first unsuccessful team Sano and Rosario have played on, get them in the playoffs in Rochester and drill into their skulls that they are winners. I don't know that that attitude is prelevant with the big club.

#15 ericchri

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 07:19 AM

I'm dying for something of interest to watch with the Twins right now. I also think fan interest would spike a good bit if they moved him up. But I think I agree with those saying that starting his service time now probably doesn't make a lot of sense.

Moving him to AAA does seem like a good proposition, though. Having him already getting time at AAA would make it pretty obvious he's probably playing with the big league team at some point next year, so maybe that's enough of a marketing boost to help sell a few season tickets. It would be a shame for Deibinson Romero who's having a pretty good season, but it's hard to see much hope for Romero having much of a place in the team's future.

#16 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 07:31 AM

Agree with Bonnes, if you think he might be on your roster next April, bring him up in September.

#17 Mr. Ed

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 07:37 AM

I'd say this: if you think there is a chance you're going to have him be on the roster on Opening Day - any chance at all - then call him up and see what you see. I wish they had done that with Hicks.



Absolutely on both points.

Last year they gave at bats to some guy who was never going to stick with the team,as a badge of service. They should have had Arcia/Hicks up at that point,and the other in September getting at bats.

#18 jokin

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:06 AM

I'm dying for something of interest to watch with the Twins right now. I also think fan interest would spike a good bit if they moved him up. But I think I agree with those saying that starting his service time now probably doesn't make a lot of sense.

Moving him to AAA does seem like a good proposition, though. Having him already getting time at AAA would make it pretty obvious he's probably playing with the big league team at some point next year, so maybe that's enough of a marketing boost to help sell a few season tickets. It would be a shame for Deibinson Romero who's having a pretty good season, but it's hard to see much hope for Romero having much of a place in the team's future.


Absolutely on both points.

Last year they gave at bats to some guy who was never going to stick with the team,as a badge of service. They should have had Arcia/Hicks up at that point,and the other in September getting at bats.


If the Twins are sincere about rewarding performance with promotion (and I think they generally are), Sano's amazing season deserves a September call-up---- likely more than any recent Twins prospect.

I concur that a short stint in the playoff run for Sano (and Rosario) with AAA Rochester would also be a win-win: for affiliate harmony.... as well as how own personal, as well as team and organizational, development. Service time issues would make little difference in a September call-up- If Rochester extends a playoff run into the second week of the month, Sano could perhaps get a 2 and a half-week cup of coffee with the Twins. A taste of the big time now would ideally get him charged up for next year and perhaps help in maturity-gains about carrying himself like a big-leaguer about his going into 2014, rather than it being an all-new experience. Ideally, a Wil Myers-type schedule for promotion occurs next year, with Sano banging down the door to starting Twins 3Bman, in May or June.

Edited by jokin, 08 August 2013 - 08:09 AM.


#19 mike wants wins

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:08 AM

Oh, as for plunking hitters, that's worse than PEDs....you are trying to hurt someone else. The commissioner should be cracking down on that.
Lighten up Francis....

#20 jokin

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:15 AM

I'd say this: if you think there is a chance you're going to have him be on the roster on Opening Day - any chance at all - then call him up and see what you see. I wish they had done that with Hicks.


I'm guessing that going into September of 2012, the Twins had no intentions of calling Hicks up in 2013 until June, at the earliest- thus no September call-up urgency. When the Phillies called about Revere, everything changed, and the Twins were caught in a chess game having not looked 2-3 moves ahead on possible optional roster approaches.

I hope they learned that lesson well and call up all of the legitimate prospects in September, Pinto, Rosario, Sano......(Buxton? probably a bridge too far...).

#21 jokin

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:18 AM

Oh, as for plunking hitters, that's worse than PEDs....you are trying to hurt someone else. The commissioner should be cracking down on that.


Given that this type of enforcement of "unwritten rules" has been going on since the Reds were still called the Red Stockings, I doubt Selig will do much more policing on the issue than what's already in place.

#22 Brandon

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:19 AM

Hicks wasn't supposed to be up at the beginning of this season as of last September. it took a perceived overpay for Revere to make this a possibility. He was supposed to start in the minors then after the trade the Twins got the idea that he could start in the majors then his spring did nothing to disprove that.


If Sano gets called up in September I don't think that necessarily starts his clock per se as much as it takes a 40 man roster spot away unnecessarily during the offseason when 40 man roster spots are at a premium for protecting talent and having the ability to sign FA. Otherwise I have no problem bringing up Sano. I do like reinforcing the winning concept however by brining him and Rosario to AAA if spots can be found. Even for the last few weeks to DH PH and spot start in the field if need be then play some in the play offs.

#23 Major Leauge Ready

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:35 AM

We are all in need of something interesting to watch. Having said this, Hicks and Arcia should be good reminders of why we should not rush players. Two levels in one year is enough. Promote him to AAA the start of next year and call him up in June or July if he is dominating at AAA.

#24 Yossarian

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:42 AM

Ahhh, yes, let's repeat the Hicks mistake as soon as possible. The kid's 20. Let him go rip up the IL next spring. It's not as if the Twins will contend in 2014.

#25 70charger

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:43 AM

I go back and forth on this too. I don't think that giving him a September callup guarantees his spot on the majors next year (see: Benson, Joe) but it may help to get him acclimated. I do think he'll be doing well enough next year to hear some cries of "forcing the issue" by July at the latest, and at that point it would be nice if going to the majors wasn't a complete shock.

On the other hand, he doesn't need to be on the 40 man, and there are a couple question marks as far as young guys who need or may this year need spots on the 40 man. This may be overstated, as we know what we have in guys like Bernier or Thomas, but bad teams can't afford to be cavalier with roster spots. Similarly, if we look at his position, I doubt we can honestly say that replacing Plouffe at third base is a top priority for the team. No Plouffe isn't a future hall of famer, but I don't think we need to rush Sano for lack of a good option. The situation with Hicks was quite different.

#26 jorgenswest

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:43 AM

Nothing will be learned in a September call up. It isn't enough time. The only purposes served would be my selfish interest in seeing him play and the managements interest in selling tickets.

A better use of September is the International League playoffs that begin September 4 and continue for up to two weeks. Let him get that experience. Perhaps moving he and Rosario soon to help Rochester get to the playoffs.

Give him 10 more weeks in AAA next year and allow him to dominate that level. If that happens, call him up June 15 and allow him to work through his struggles at the major league level with the knowledge that he has dominated the levels below.

This is not about service time or super 2. I think this plan decreases the chance that he will need to move back and forth between the majors and the minors.

#27 gobirds

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:49 AM

I'm gonna pick a few nits here...."Quandry" should be "Quandary" and...
2. Miguel Sano is not dominating AA. Let's not talk about this as if he's tearing the cover off the ball.
Is shortly followed by
In short, this is a great dilemma. Again, Miguel Sano is 20 years old. And tearing the cover off the ball.
I'm confused, is he actually tearing the cover off the ball, or not?

As to the gist of the article, I'd make him earn his way up the ladder and wait until next year. The commenters throwing out his first 2 weeks of AA ball are then relying on a very small statistical sample at this level. Sure, he has hit well at the lower levels, but give him a chance to learn how to adjust at the AA level after the opposing coaches and pitchers have familiarized themselves with Sano's hitting tendencies.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:50 AM

Truth be told.... with Twins management confirming that Sano's defense is no longer an issue, Sano has little left to improve upon facing minor league pitchers.


Truncated for brevity. I agree... And disagree.

Honestly, I think the best thing for Sano might be a short trip to AAA to let him face more wily AAAA guys. Sure, AA has talent, but AAA is littered with guys who are older, have played on an MLB roster, and are craftier.

If Sano can continue posting an OPS over .900 against those guys, I don't care about the strikeouts. The BA doesn't matter one lick for the reasons Jokin posted... Miguel is simply getting unlucky. It happens. The only concern should be whether he will swing and miss too many balls against MLB pitchers and the best way to figure that out is to let him taste AAA pitching for a few weeks.

On the other hand, I have no problems with him starting 2014 in AAA to extend his service time, either. I'm a patient man. He'll be here soon enough.

#29 SpiritofVodkaDave

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:51 AM

Oh, as for plunking hitters, that's worse than PEDs....you are trying to hurt someone else.


No you aren't As long as you aren't hit in the wrist, face, head, ankle, elbow, balls, etc you will be fine getting hit

#30 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 08 August 2013 - 08:52 AM

Ahhh, yes, let's repeat the Hicks mistake as soon as possible. The kid's 20. Let him go rip up the IL next spring. It's not as if the Twins will contend in 2014.


TS Eliot.

*hangs up phone*