Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.

MinnCentric Forums


Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Photo

Draft prospects

draft
  • Please log in to reply
142 replies to this topic

#81 Shane Wahl

Shane Wahl

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,669 posts

Posted 26 April 2012 - 10:46 AM

The Twins drafted him last year in the 41st round. There is no way his stock has gone up that much. I am being rather optimistic for him at round 6.

#82 twinsfanstreif

twinsfanstreif

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 328 posts

Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:00 AM

Another thing to consider is that he is a senior and with the new CBA teams will want to draft signable guys in the 3-10 rounds in order to get the guys with signability concerns earlier. It's also bad to look at things like previous draft round. Like I said he looked pretty bad last year and he's made significant adjustments. George Springer was also drafted by the twins in the late rounds(40-50) and was taken in the early 1st round just a few years later. It's not impossible.

#83 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 2,781 posts

Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:29 PM

One of the BA guys was asked recently if the Gophers had any draftable guys and the response was Oakes is a 5th round guy. He went so late because he wasn't interested in signing, he was more interested in returning to school and pitching for his dad... if my memory serves me correctly.

#84 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 2,781 posts

Posted 27 April 2012 - 12:11 PM

Early word says college pitcher.

A couple interesting notes in KLaw's newest insider article:

"Some rumors of team preferences are starting to leak out, although it's still fairly early. Some of the stronger rumors: Minnesota Twins with Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer."

"Teams seem to be operating as if the Astros are most likely to take Buxton, with only Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles scouting him at this point."

#85 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,304 posts

Posted 27 April 2012 - 01:35 PM

Early word says college pitcher.

A couple interesting notes in KLaw's newest insider article:

"Some rumors of team preferences are starting to leak out, although it's still fairly early. Some of the stronger rumors: Minnesota Twins with Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer."

"Teams seem to be operating as if the Astros are most likely to take Buxton, with only Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles scouting him at this point."


That's really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Need to learn more about those two pitchers.

#86 maxisagod

maxisagod

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 445 posts
  • LocationThe Moon

Posted 27 April 2012 - 04:26 PM

Early word says college pitcher.

A couple interesting notes in KLaw's newest insider article:

"Some rumors of team preferences are starting to leak out, although it's still fairly early. Some of the stronger rumors: Minnesota Twins with Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer."

"Teams seem to be operating as if the Astros are most likely to take Buxton, with only Houston, Seattle, Kansas City and the Baltimore Orioles scouting him at this point."


I like Gausman and Zimmer over Appel and Wacha. If The Astros start talking about pass on Buxton, could that change the Twin's plans.

#87 ScottyB

ScottyB

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 673 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 10:13 AM

The only way I would take Buxton is if you can guarentee him to be a 40 HR / 120 RBI guy. Being a Heyward, 18 HR / 72 RBI guy with a possibility of 25 HR / 90 RBI, those guys are a dime a dozen. If Buxton is a lock for 40 HR, then yes. But the Twins need starting pitching - yesterday. We have no rotation for next season, whatsoever. Blackburn, Hendricks, Gibson coming off TJ surgery, Swarzak, Diamond - not exactly a stable of aces. At this point they need a pitcher with a ton of upside. And yes, I'd take a long look at Appel, Gausman, Zimmer, Giolito, Fried, and Wacha. My guess with Giolito is that if he drops below the tenth pick, he ends up going to UCLA, and makes himself available in next year's draft, and at the rate the Twins are going, we could have a top two pick next year as well.

#88 Jeremy Nygaard

Jeremy Nygaard

    Twins Draft Czar

  • Twins Database Managers
  • 2,781 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 11:00 AM

[quote name='ScottyB']The only way I would take Buxton is if you can guarentee him to be a 40 HR / 120 RBI guy.[/QUOTE]

Mike Stanton, Bryce Harper and Miguel Sano, the three most powerful prospects over the last three years are not locks to hit 40 HRs. So if Buxton - who isn't even a power guy - was a lock to hit 40 HRs, he'd definitely go 1st overall.

[quote name='ScottyB']We have no rotation for next season, whatsoever.[/QUOTE]

The draft isn't going to help with this problem.

[quote name='ScottyB']My guess with Giolito is that if he drops below the tenth pick, he ends up going to UCLA, and makes himself available in next year's draft.[/QUOTE]

If Giolito enrolls in a 4-year school, he isn't gong to be eligibile for the draft for three more years. (Like Gerrit Cole, 1st round to the NYY three years ago, 1-1 this past year.)

I think it's pretty obvious the Twins aren't one or two or three players away. And with baseball being a crapshoot anyway, the only way to go is to find a balance between BPA and ceiling and go with the best guy. If it's Buxton, he's probably five years away anyway. By the time he's ready, Hicks might be a year or two from free agency.

#89 twinsfanstreif

twinsfanstreif

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 328 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 11:29 AM

That's really interesting. Thanks for sharing. Need to learn more about those two pitchers.


Zimmer's got better control and Gausman's got better velocity. Gausman doesn't walk a bunch but he's prone to wild pitches. I really like Gausman's wind up from a fan standpoint, it just looks cool, but it has a lot of movement and looks hard to repeat, it could also cause some stamina issues. He kind of looks like Dontrell Willis with the high leg kick. I've heard concern with Gausman's secondary stuff. I'm still torn on Zimmer, he's new to pitching so there's still a lot to learn for him. He's gotten his velocity up this year and cleaned up his mechanics a lot and developed a strong power curve and his slider is getting better. His delivery reminds me of Mark Prior, I hope he doen't have the injury stuff that mark did. He's one of the best athletes in the draft so maybe that'll help his stamina. If I had to choose right now I'd say Zimmer but I really hope the give a look to Giolito because he could be a star.

#90 Jim Crikket

Jim Crikket

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,134 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 11:36 AM

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion... Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.
I opine about the Twins and Kernels regularly at Knuckleballsblog.com while my alter ego, SD Buhr covers the Kernels for MetroSportsReport.com.

~You can get anything you want at Alice's Restaurant~

#91 James

James

    Sideburns Specialist

  • Members
  • 2,312 posts
  • LocationThe dive bars of NE Minneapolis

Posted 02 May 2012 - 12:00 PM

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.

Well said. Perfect example of this: Mike Piazza was selected with 1390th pick in the 62nd round of the draft in 1988. How did no one else select him until then? Everyone else must have been idiots for passing him by, right?

There are going to be first round picks that never make it and there are going to be later picks that turn out to be superstars. MLB draft is a crapshoot. Yes, I know scouting should help find better potential player, but they don't always pan out and there are always guys that perform much better than the potential assigned to them by the scouts.

You can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that.


#92 MWLFan

MWLFan

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 197 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 12:30 PM

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.


Jim Crikket is such a downer. Trying to take all the fun out of bitching about how stupid the Twins are. Well sir, you shall not take our mojo. We will still whine and demand for Vavra, Gardy or Childress to be fired no matter who the Twins screw up and take at number two. Just like we did last time they had that slot. Then you watch next year when we have the number one pick! Failure will be a certainty. Because we the denizons of the deep message board know better, right up until the point this player turns into a star in which case we reserve the right forget all that we have written before and praise him constantly until he fails in the "clutch", has too high a WHIP for our taste, see his range drop to Valenica levels or is started to be refered to as a battler. So there!

P.S. I would like the catcher as the college arms make me nervous they will fall off sometime in instructional league after being abused by their coaches. I see most of those guys as highly probable clients of Dr. Andrews. But then again how many of us really know wtf to make of the MLB draft.

#93 tpb8

tpb8

    Member

  • Members
  • 37 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 12:45 PM

If 18HR/72RBI guys are a dime-a-dozen, why don't the Twins have a bunch of them? So, only a 40HR power hitter is worth the #1 pick in the draft? I guess a guy like Mike Trout wouldn't be worth a #1 pick this year. Name 1 guaranteed superstar in this year's draft. (You can't. There's no such thing)

#94 GooseBuster04

GooseBuster04

    Junior Member

  • Members
  • 1 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 01:20 PM

I've been thinking about the Draft some lately, and everyone seems to think this year's draft class is down. Would there be any chance the the Twins could use the following strategy? 1. Draft the best player available for the Twins at #2 (Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, etc.) 2. If Giolito is available with the 1st pick of the supplemental round, pick him. 3. Throw whatever is needed (i.e. #1 or #2 pick money) at Giolito to sign him. 4. Offer #33 pick money to the #2 pick. If he signs, great. If not, we get the #3 pick in the 2013 draft which may be deeper than this years draft. With the above strategy, the Twins could potentially get top 5 talent in Giolito in the supplemental round, the #3 pick in a potentially deeper draft next year, and their 2013 pick next year (at this point, it looks like a #1 pick). Obviously, a lot of assumptions are being made by myself. I don't know if the new CBA would still allow the Twins to get the #3 pick next year if they don't sign this year's #2 pick. I also don't follow amateur baseball enough to know if the 2013 draft is expected to be deeper than this year's. I'm just curious what everyone else thinks of this as a potential strategy for the Twins.

#95 Steve Lein

Steve Lein

    Senior Member - MiLB Report Contributor

  • Members
  • 1,002 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 01:57 PM

After reading through this entire thread, I believe there is only one certain conclusion...

Regardless of who the Twins take with the #2 pick, there will absolutely be SOMEONE picked later that turns out to be better than whoever the Twins take... and when that happens, there will be no shortage of people around here screaming about how stupid the Twins are for not knowing, years in advance, that the other guy would be the better pick.


You say that like the people replying in this particular forum are the ONLY ones in the world who do/will-do this...

You hope your scouts pick out a guy at the #2 pick who will make it, and make it in a big way. But if I'm using the scouting scale as an overall rating of a prospect, there are certainly draft prospects who are, say a 30/50 (present/MLB potential) that will actually turn into a 70, and guys who right now are a 40/80 who never advance past a 40 or never make it. You're obviously going to pick the guy who you rate as a 40/80, though. There's nothing scientific about it. A guy's either got it, works really hard to get it, or squanders their skills by not working at it diligently after being drafted, and you never really know which type will show up once they start playing professional games and where or when those qualities might change as they move up the ladder.

Hindsight is certainly 20/20, but don't belittle the forum on those terms, it's the same thing EVERYWHERE.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#96 nicksaviking

nicksaviking

    Senior Member

  • Twins Mods
  • 7,624 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 02:02 PM

I still have a hard time seeing Giolito falling that far. There are several teams with two first round picks, those are usually the teams who take chances. Even so, with his stock rising again, he might get back in the top 10 if not higher.

#97 ScottyB

ScottyB

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 673 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 02:09 PM

If 18HR/72RBI guys are a dime-a-dozen, why don't the Twins have a bunch of them?


The Twins have had a number of these guys - they just choose to not hang onto them - Ortiz, Hunter, Kubel, Cuddyer, Hardy and Thome are just a few that come to mind off the top of my head.

#98 ScottyB

ScottyB

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 673 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 02:24 PM

So, only a 40HR power hitter is worth the #1 pick in the draft?


Not saying only a 40 HR power guy is worth the first pick. Just saying that the Twins have 6-10 'toolsy' OF'ers already in the system. This team hoards prospects and doesn't make trades. Instead we end up cutting them after they've lost their value instead of bundling them to fill needs. Not all of our OF prospects or current guys like Span are going to be able to play together. Why not trade while they have value instead of losing guys like Slowey after he became worthless?

Who's the last #1 type pitcher that the Twins actually drafted (not Rule 5) - Frank Viola? Actually, probably Garza, but they traded him. Their poor judgement of pitchers is the reason we can't win in the playoffs. We have a tendency to draft #3 & #4 starters.

#99 gunnarthor

gunnarthor

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 5,304 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 03:16 PM

I've been thinking about the Draft some lately, and everyone seems to think this year's draft class is down. Would there be any chance the the Twins could use the following strategy?

1. Draft the best player available for the Twins at #2 (Buxton, Appel, Zimmer, etc.)
2. If Giolito is available with the 1st pick of the supplemental round, pick him.
3. Throw whatever is needed (i.e. #1 or #2 pick money) at Giolito to sign him.
4. Offer #33 pick money to the #2 pick. If he signs, great. If not, we get the #3 pick in the 2013 draft which may be deeper than this years draft.

With the above strategy, the Twins could potentially get top 5 talent in Giolito in the supplemental round, the #3 pick in a potentially deeper draft next year, and their 2013 pick next year (at this point, it looks like a #1 pick).

Obviously, a lot of assumptions are being made by myself. I don't know if the new CBA would still allow the Twins to get the #3 pick next year if they don't sign this year's #2 pick. I also don't follow amateur baseball enough to know if the 2013 draft is expected to be deeper than this year's. I'm just curious what everyone else thinks of this as a potential strategy for the Twins.


There's a few problems with treating the #2 pick so poorly, first, they'd be much less likely to sign and either reenter the draft next year or play a year with the Saints. It would also destroy the Twins reputation with young talent, a group the Twins really, really need. Second, losing out on Zunino (or whoever) to pick third next year hurts the club. That pick might not want to sign with the Twins, b/c of their rep so we're going to have to narrow our field of prospects. And giving up talent this year just pushes the rebuild down the road a year. The #2 in this draft is a good pick. Whoever we grab is likely to be our #2 prospect and a top 50 (or better) prospect in all baseball. A few of the college arms could move quite quickly to help our rotation. Zunino's bat should move quickly, too. Also, Giolito isn't likely to be available at 32.

#100 drivlikejehu

drivlikejehu

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,028 posts

Posted 02 May 2012 - 03:48 PM

If a team fails to sign a first-round pick, that slot money is gone from their cap. So it could not be used on other players. However, a team can spend less than the slot amount and use the 'savings' on other picks. I think the Twins would be wise to consider making a deal with a slightly-lower rated player and using the savings to sign quality prospects who might slip. Most teams wouldn't be able to do this because their draft pool isn't significant enough to really find much savings. Let's say a prospect like Max Fried was expected to go in the 8-10 range, where the maximum bonus is around $2.8 million. What if the Twins call up Fried's 'advisor' and said, "we'll take him at #2 for $4 million." That is more than even the #5 slot can offer without going well over the limit. How could he possibly say no? Unless a player has a real likelihood of going #3 or maybe #4, the Twins could easily save $2-3 million and get a high quality prospect. The Twins could add multiple high quality prospects that way without losing too much. They won't do it but it seems like a good strategy for this draft, which doesn't really have standouts at the top of the draft like some classes do.



Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: draft