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Who Must Be Added This Fall

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#1 ScottyB

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 07:14 PM

Can any of our experts please answer - who are some players who will need to be added to the 40-man roster this off-season? Also, as far as some of our prizes - when will they need to be added?

Thanks!!

#2 jorgenswest

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 07:30 PM

Jeremy or Seth would be the expert. I can point you to Jeremy's work.

http://twinsdaily.com/1272-minnesota-twins-roster-payroll-2013.html


I think if you look at the rule 5 column you will see some players with the 2013 designation. If I understand Jeremy's work correctly, the players with the 2013 need to be added this winter or be eligible for the rule 5. That would include guys like Angel Morales and Logan Darnell.

There are also some purple 40 man add highlights on guys like Alex Wimmers, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. I thought Polanco and Sano were the same international year but they have different rule 5 designations.

Jeremy jump in and correct me.

Edited by jorgenswest, 26 June 2013 - 07:37 PM.


#3 ScottyB

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 07:42 PM

Polanco and Sano were definately added at the same time.

#4 maxisagod

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 10:12 PM

I thought Polanco and Sano were the same international year but they have different rule 5 designations.


This was discussed earlier this year. Though Kepler, Polanco, and Sano all signed the same year, there was a hold up for some reason before Sano signed his contract (tax reasons maybe?) and Sano signed after Short Season ball had ended, this meant that season didn't count against his Rule 5 clock. So Sano won't have to be added until winter of 2014.

#5 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 10:57 PM

Sano signed after the minor league season was over, so he gets an extra year.

The guys in purple were guys I thought needed to be added, but I wouldn't necessarily say it still reflects how I feel. I recently took Nate Roberts off the list.

Salcedo would be a question mark as well. And some other guys thay have been eligible before would be under consideration as well.

Great discussion topic... I'll switch things up based on what people think here.

#6 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 10:57 PM

Anybody that says "Elig" has been previously eligible.

#7 clutterheart

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Posted 26 June 2013 - 11:49 PM

Would you be interested in posting the roster/payroll tables in a google doc spreadsheet? Because of my work computer and mobile phone, i struggle reading that sheet.

#8 jay

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 08:58 AM

Some names they might consider:
2B/SS James Beresford
3B Deibinson Romero
SP Andrew Albers
SP Logan Darnell
OF Danny Ortiz
RP AJ Achter
RP Matt Hauser
SP Alex Wimmers
1B Kenny Vargas
OF Nate Roberts
P Adrian Salcedo
RP Ryan O'Rourke
2B/SS Jorge Polanco
OF Max Kepler

I think Albers will make it on the 40-man yet this year for a look. Looking at who Jeremy has highlighted in purple, I'd agree with Vargas and Kepler. The rest I'd question, with Polanco being the most likely.

Edited by jay, 27 June 2013 - 09:00 AM.


#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 09:50 AM

I'd hope Salcedo doesn't take up a 40-man spot. What about Lester Oliveros though? I believe if a player is out an entire year with an injury the team doesn't lose an option year but I don't know that they push back the Rule V requirements.

#10 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 10:08 AM

I could see Darnell and Romero as possibilities as well. In Darnell's case, pitching at AAA, sometime would take him in the Rule 5 since he's practically ML ready. I think if he continues what he did in AA, the Twins are going to protect him.

Romero is a bit different. He was really good in rookie ball and then had a few bad years of injury/ineffectiveness. He seems healthy and is producing nicely in AAA. I could see him up next year with the Twins essentially trying to audition him for a year to build value so he can be traded when Sano is ready. I could also see them choosing to not protect him all. I think he's a minor league FA, and I also think someone would consider grabbing him as he's done pretty well at AAA, so it isn't as if he's going to be a roster liability in 2014. But given he's sandwiched between Plouffe and Sano, I'm not sure what the Twins will do with him.

#11 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 10:21 AM

Some names they might consider:
2B/SS James Beresford
3B Deibinson Romero
SP Andrew Albers
SP Logan Darnell
OF Danny Ortiz
RP AJ Achter
RP Matt Hauser
SP Alex Wimmers
1B Kenny Vargas
OF Nate Roberts
P Adrian Salcedo
RP Ryan O'Rourke
2B/SS Jorge Polanco
OF Max Kepler

I think Albers will make it on the 40-man yet this year for a look. Looking at who Jeremy has highlighted in purple, I'd agree with Vargas and Kepler. The rest I'd question, with Polanco being the most likely.


I think Vargas, Kepler, Darnell and Polanco would be added for sure. Beresford and Ortiz depending on how much room they have. I'm not sure how many spots they'll have.

Let's see. Twins currently have 42 men on the 40 man roster. Next year Hermsen, Pelfrey, Wood, Butera, Morneau, Ramirez and Thomas can all be easily removed, plus a few more if needed. Shouldn't have too much trouble finding room for the guys they want to keep.

#12 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 12:24 PM

Would you be interested in posting the roster/payroll tables in a google doc spreadsheet? Because of my work computer and mobile phone, i struggle reading that sheet.



Try this. I'm not going to update it very often. (It takes way too long to format... and it still isn't pretty with the column widths needing to be different sizes.)

#13 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 12:28 PM

Oliveros isn't on the 40-man currently. He's already eligible for the Rule 5 draft, so being injured doesn't change that. I'm not sure if he's credited with a year of minor league service time - I'd assume he is - but that would give him enough to be a six-year free-agent.

Edited by Jeremy Nygaard, 27 June 2013 - 12:38 PM.


#14 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 12:35 PM

Beresford should be a guy that is strongly considered. Someone that could be a defensive-replacement/pinch-runner could fill the 25th spot on a major-league roster.

If you're halfway capable and left-handed, you should probably be added (Albers, Darnell).

Polanco and Kepler are no-brainers, based on how highly-rated they are as prospects.

I'd add Wimmers. A team could take him and DL him and let him rehab before they have to really make a decision. That time wouldn't count towards the year, but he's a worthwhile arm.

Vargas would appear to be a must-add, but really I doubt he'd be taken (and if he is, would stick). He's not going to be a starting 1B. He can't play anywhere else. So he's a switch-hitting DH-like body? Could any team afford to stash him for a year? Much better 1B/OF/DH types go un-added each year.

Romero may be added. He's been on (and off) before. I could see someone taking a chance on him, but I doubt he'd stick either.

Edited by Jeremy Nygaard, 27 June 2013 - 12:37 PM.


#15 Oxtung

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 12:43 PM

A few more that might get added depending on the rest of this year:
Candido Pimentel
Angel Morales
Manuel Soliman
Tom Stuifbergen


I don't really think either Polanco or Kepler need to be protected this year from the major league portion of the draft, assuming of course neither make it to Fort Meyers until late this year. I have a hard time believing a team would take a player from low A ball and carry him on the MLB 25 man for a full season. However if they keep hitting next season they will for sure have to go on the 40 man.

I do believe the Twins will need to protect Achter and Vargas this year. I think depending on how the rest of this season plays out Morales, Romero, Darnell, Albers, Stuifbergen, O'Rourke and Hauser all could need protecting.

In addition Meyer, Rosario, Sano and Zach Jones are all likely to need a 40 man spot at some point during next season.

The list for November 2014 includes Meyer, Rosario, Sano, Corey WIlliams, Cole Johnson, Tyler Jones, Niko Goodrum, Aderlin Mejia, Matt Summers, JD Williams, Brett Lee, Madison Boer, Matt Koch, AJ Pettersen, Levi Michael, Jason WHeeler and Matt Tomshaw. Now clearly not all of those players will have to be added but they are the ones I think of the best chances of being added.

November 2015 includes Zach Jones, Adam Walker, Mason Melotakis, DJ Baxendale, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Travis Harrison, Hudson Boyd, Javier Pimentel. Players that will need to be added from 2016 on include Byron Buxton, Cole Stewart, Amaurys Minier and Jose Berrios.

Players are listed when they will become rule 5 eligilbe however, many players will probably be added before required because they are ready to contribute, see Meyer, Sano, Rosario, et al. Also I didn't list many players past 2014 because it is hard to know who will pan out when the players are so far away. You could literally list almost every player in the DSL, GCL and Elizabethton at this point and make a case for inclusion so I just listed the big names.

#16 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 12:53 PM

I don't really think either Polanco or Kepler need to be protected this year from the major league portion of the draft, assuming of course neither make it to Fort Meyers until late this year. I have a hard time believing a team would take a player from low A ball and carry him on the MLB 25 man for a full season. However if they keep hitting next season they will for sure have to go on the 40 man.


I'd disagree with that. Both of those guys have enough upside that a team like Houston, Miami or Seattle could get away with stashing them on their ML roster for a year (like we did w/Santana).

#17 Seth Stohs

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 12:59 PM

My guess as of today: Vargas, Wimmers, Polanco and Kepler added. Next would probably be Achter, then Darnell, if they want.

I think Albers will get added sometime during this season, maybe September, but he'll likely be removed following the season to clear space.

#18 Oxtung

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 02:09 PM

I'd disagree with that. Both of those guys have enough upside that a team like Houston, Miami or Seattle could get away with stashing them on their ML roster for a year (like we did w/Santana).


In the last 5 years there have been 9 position players drafted from AA and none played in the majors the following year. There have been 2 position players drafted from A ball. One was returned. Everth Cabrera stuck with the Padres for the whole season as their starting SS (he subsequently has been terrible until resurfacing again this year).

So there you have it. One player drafted below AAA has stuck. I don't think it's very likely that we have to worry about Polanco or Kepler. Especially if they don't make it to Fort Meyers this year.

#19 gunnarthor

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 02:29 PM

In the last 5 years there have been 9 position players drafted from AA and none played in the majors the following year. There have been 2 position players drafted from A ball. One was returned. Everth Cabrera stuck with the Padres for the whole season as their starting SS (he subsequently has been terrible until resurfacing again this year).

So there you have it. One player drafted below AAA has stuck. I don't think it's very likely that we have to worry about Polanco or Kepler. Especially if they don't make it to Fort Meyers this year.


But it's not players of Polanco and Kepler's abilities that are being exposed to the rule v draft.

#20 Oxtung

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 02:53 PM

But it's not players of Polanco and Kepler's abilities that are being exposed to the rule v draft.


What evidence to support that do you have?

#21 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 04:14 PM

But it's not players of Polanco and Kepler's abilities that are being exposed to the rule v draft.


This, no team leaves highly regarded prospects available. There's lots of crappy teams that will a hide guy on the roster for that very reason.

#22 ScottyB

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 04:59 PM

Thank you all - this has been helpful!

#23 maxisagod

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Posted 27 June 2013 - 09:40 PM

Vargas would appear to be a must-add, but really I doubt he'd be taken (and if he is, would stick). He's not going to be a starting 1B. He can't play anywhere else. So he's a switch-hitting DH-like body? Could any team afford to stash him for a year? Much better 1B/OF/DH types go un-added.


Right , worst case scenario he gets pick up as a switching hitting power hitting pitch hitter, then an injury happens to that teams 1B or DH he gets some regular playing time and turns into David Ortiz.
... I mean that's the WORST case scenario.
... I mean what are the odds that happens to the same team Twice. You know.
... So Max Kepler, do you guys think he can be MLB starting ready in three years? It would suck burning thru his option years only to not have him ready and sitting on the bench wasting the ability to develop him further.

#24 Oxtung

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 12:34 AM

This, no team leaves highly regarded prospects available. There's lots of crappy teams that will a hide guy on the roster for that very reason.


A ball position players are not the same as relief pitchers. You can't just stash them on the bench and only play them in blow outs. Bench players have to play. There just aren't enough bench spots to sit one.

It's probably a moot point though as Minnesota will have room on their 40 man if they want.

#25 clutterheart

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 04:28 AM

I don't think Vargas is must add. I would be surprised if a team would find it worthwhile to hide him on the bench. He projects as a decent but not fantastic player. If he gets promoted to AA, maybe that will change. But Kepler could be hid and worth it.
Wimmers is interesting. He would need to show something to be added.
I think it will be:
Kepler
Darnell
Beresford - if he can play SS

Wimmers, Polanco, Vargas, Albers & Hauser are bubble guys depending how they do the rest of the year and the level they finish it.

#26 jimbo92107

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 06:36 AM

If you consider the outcomes of guys like Joe Benson, it's hard to make the case for an A-ball prospect like Kepler being stashed on some other team's 25-man roster. There's such an enormous gap in difficulty between looking good in A ball and becoming a successful major leaguer, only superstar prospects like Sano and Buxton seem like potential risks for rule 5 sniping.

Doesn't every team have good-looking young players in A-ball? How many major league managers can afford to have some raw kid ride the bench for a whole season, just because he can hit a single-A fastball? Your 25-man roster is precious; you reserve the last few spots for utility players and versatile relief pitchers, not half-formed players like Max Kepler.

Edited by jimbo92107, 28 June 2013 - 06:48 AM.


#27 2wins87

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 10:15 AM

I could see a team taking Polanco or Kepler with the intention of trying to work out a trade with the Twins. They get a bit better leverage that way since they could stash them on their 25 man roster (though this is harder to do with position players than with pitchers who can pitch out of the bullpen in low leverage situations).

It's possible that an AL team (maybe Houston) might like Vargas's bat well enough to try to keep him as a bench bat, but I don't know how likely that would be.

#28 Oxtung

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 05:35 PM

I don't think Vargas is must add. I would be surprised if a team would find it worthwhile to hide him on the bench. He projects as a decent but not fantastic player. If he gets promoted to AA, maybe that will change. But Kepler could be hid and worth it.
Wimmers is interesting. He would need to show something to be added.
I think it will be:
Kepler
Darnell
Beresford - if he can play SS

Wimmers, Polanco, Vargas, Albers & Hauser are bubble guys depending how they do the rest of the year and the level they finish it.


Beresford won't be protected. He has posted an OPS > .700 only 1 time in his career and that was in 2010 at A ball. At best he projects as a utility infielder. The Twins have plenty of those.

I think AJ Achter will get added much like Tonkin was last season. I don't know anything about Achter's "stuff" but his stats are very similar to Tonkin's.

#29 kab21

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 07:29 PM

kepler already is a borderline top 100 prospect and Polanco is probably in the top 150 at this point. These kind of prospects aren't exposed in Rule V even if it doesn't make sense for a team to draft them and keep them in the majors all year.

#30 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 28 June 2013 - 08:09 PM

The A's added Michael Ynoa last offseason. I don't believe he had even thrown a pitch in full-season ball. There are certain guys you add simply because you can't take the chance of losing them.

Kepler is that guy. He will poster boy for Euros signing with the Twins.