Posted 06 April 2012 - 10:18 AM
I think there will be a couple of major improvements from your projections and a one major decline. Jamey Carroll will see about a trillion fastballs batting ahead of Mauer and Carroll's line will be closer to this: Jamey Carroll:
.305/.365/.345 (.710) - 22 doubles, 3 triples, 0 HR, 30 RBI, 8 SB
I think Mauer's numbers are very good, but the next guy in the lineup will be as focused as he has ever been and will produce much better than your projections.
Morneau's line: .285/.360/.475 (.835) - 34 doubles, 0 triples, 26 HR, 88 RBI
One thing I see this group changing this season, is driving the ball gap-to-gap and not being afraid to swing away. The last two seasons, the Twins have been "scared" of hitting at home and often have been frustrated by how difficult it is to hit HR at Target Field. The addition of Willingham (a dead-pull hitter), who hasn't been corrupted by Kubel's constant complaints of Target Field's size will inspire others to swing away and HR numbers and doubles numbers will drastically increase.
On to the negative and ultimately a positive. Alexi Casilla will lose his job PERMANATELY by the middle of May. Luke Hughes will become our everday second baseman and have a fantastic year. His adjusted line ( with over 500 plate appearances) will closer resemble Danny Valencia's:
.260/.335/.420 (.755) - 26 doubles, 1 triple, 18 HR, 68 RBI
I am excited for our offense this year! Alex Wimmers will be dominant at AA and be up by August.