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Article: The Key for Mike Pelfrey

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#1 Seth Stohs

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 05:53 AM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...or-Mike-Pelfrey

#2 Gernzy

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 06:57 AM

While Pelfrey is showing signs of improvement, Gibson is nipping at his heels. Currently I don't see Gibson replacing him. A few bad starts though...

#3 Winston Smith

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 07:24 AM

Pelfrey has never been anything but a mediocre pitcher. Career sub .500 record, mid 4 era in the NL and 1.5 whip, none of his numbers say anything about him being good. He is what he is probably a little better than what we've seen but nothing more than mediocre.

#4 Seth Stohs

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:01 AM

Pelfrey has never been anything but a mediocre pitcher. Career sub .500 record, mid 4 era in the NL and 1.5 whip, none of his numbers say anything about him being good. He is what he is probably a little better than what we've seen but nothing more than mediocre.


I can't imagine anyone would disagree with that.

#5 mike wants wins

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:07 AM

so if he has no upside, really......why would you keep him around next year, when by then maybe Gibson will be consistent enough to be in MN, Worley might be fixed, Meyer might be ready, Albers maybe surprised us all? There is no strategic reason to have Plefry on the roster next year (nor am I sure there is this year.......). Me, I'd cut him. Call up Gibson, see what you have. I'd call up Albers after Gibson reaches his limit, and see what you have. having Pelfrey here does nothing for this team, this year, or next year.

What I just typed is probably an opinion, not a fact. I mean, I'm usually right, so you should maybe assume it is or will be a fact soon, but that's up to you. :) Also, I am NOT trying to convince anyone I am correct, I'm just talking here, not arguing.


#6 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:12 AM

I would imagine a lot of pitchers who don't have the ability to strike out batters have a similar breakdown in regards to big innings. When guys get on base it's very difficult for them to stop runners from advancing even on routine outs.

#7 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:19 AM

Pelfrey is not going to make us all think we are watching a RH Johan Santana.
He has, however, been improving steadily (?) as he continues to come back from his surgery.

I am optimistic that he can give us mostly serviceable innings for the balance of the year.

#8 beckmt

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:25 AM

It was known the first half of the year might not be as good as hoped. He could be good the second half as he gets further away from TJ surgery. No one left in Rochester is forcing their way up here, so give it some time.

#9 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:26 AM

Pelfrey is not going to make us all think we are watching a RH Johan Santana.
He has, however, been improving steadily (?) as he continues to come back from his surgery.

I am optimistic that he can give us mostly serviceable innings for the balance of the year.



How about just until the trade deadline?

#10 Kwak

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 08:32 AM

Pelfrey fits the Twins concept of pitchers: cheap, available to pitch, and "attacks the strikezone".

#11 chuchadoro

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 09:05 AM

so if he has no upside, really......why would you keep him around next year, when by then maybe Gibson will be consistent enough to be in MN, Worley might be fixed, Meyer might be ready, Albers maybe surprised us all? There is no strategic reason to have Plefry on the roster next year (nor am I sure there is this year.......). Me, I'd cut him. Call up Gibson, see what you have. I'd call up Albers after Gibson reaches his limit, and see what you have. having Pelfrey here does nothing for this team, this year, or next year.


Pelfrey is here to help this team reach its full 74 win potential. The Twins brass decided a full Houston-style rebuild (exceptions being Mauer and maybe Perkins) would be too big of a PR hit for a team that just got their shiny, new Section 8 housing a few short years ago.

#12 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 09:17 AM

There is no strategic reason to have Plefry on the roster next year (nor am I sure there is this year.......). Me, I'd cut him. Call up Gibson, see what you have. I'd call up Albers after Gibson reaches his limit, and see what you have. having Pelfrey here does nothing for this team, this year, or next year.


I think you should start a Frey Mike Pelfrey thread.

#13 Shane Wahl

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 09:22 AM

What I still don't understand is how the Twins thought Pelfrey was actually ready to go at the beginning of the season. I remember being shocked that reports were good in March. Of course being able to pitch is not the same as being strong enough to pitch for over 5 innings. We are finally now seeing it work out a bit better. Too bad they didn't pitch someone else in April and May.

#14 Oldgoat_MN

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 09:42 AM

How about just until the trade deadline?


LOL. Perfect!

#15 Wookiee of the Year

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:04 AM

I would imagine a lot of pitchers who don't have the ability to strike out batters have a similar breakdown in regards to big innings. When guys get on base it's very difficult for them to stop runners from advancing even on routine outs.

Yeah, that's what I'm wondering--how does Pelfrey's breakdown compare to other pitchers? It's fairly meaningless to me in a vacuum. Does it mean Gardy should be quicker with the hook once Pelfrey allows a few baserunners, or surrenders a run? Is it par for the course with a pitch-to-contact pitcher?

#16 Seth Stohs

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:17 AM

Yeah, that's what I'm wondering--how does Pelfrey's breakdown compare to other pitchers? It's fairly meaningless to me in a vacuum. Does it mean Gardy should be quicker with the hook once Pelfrey allows a few baserunners, or surrenders a run? Is it par for the course with a pitch-to-contact pitcher?


I'd assume it's worse than the average pitch-to-contact pitcher... since his ERA is so high. I mean, 95% of pitchers in the big leagues are pitch-to-contact and most have ERAs south of 5.

#17 IdahoPilgrim

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:26 AM

To be honest, did the Twins brass ever see Pelfrey as any more than a placeholder getting them through to when Gibson (& Meyer & maybe May) were ready? I always saw him as insurance in case Gibson had a setback on his recovery rather than somebody the organization was planning to build around. So in that sense, if he can just not suck, he's giving the Twins what they paid for, and he's starting to not suck.

And I doubt we'll get anything for him at the trade deadline, not with him being a free agent next year anyway. He'll be insurance to the end of the year and then we'll part ways, hopefully amicably.

#18 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:31 AM

I'd assume it's worse than the average pitch-to-contact pitcher... since his ERA is so high. I mean, 95% of pitchers in the big leagues are pitch-to-contact and most have ERAs south of 5.


That seems awfully high. I suppose we could go off-tangent and get down to what it actually means to be a pitch-to-contact arm but the overriding idea was that Pelfrey doesn't have the ability to bear down and strike guys out when he has runners on the bases. 95% of the pitchers in the league don't have the same issue. If Pelfrey had pitched one more inning he would be a qualifying pitcher and would be fifth from last in K/9. Of course Diamond and Correia are one and three, but that would be off-tangent too.

Edited by nicksaviking, 18 June 2013 - 10:35 AM.


#19 Seth Stohs

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:46 AM

That seems awfully high. I suppose we could go off-tangent and get down to what it actually means to be a pitch-to-contact arm but the overriding idea was that Pelfrey doesn't have the ability to bear down and strike guys out when he has runners on the bases. 95% of the pitchers in the league don't have the same issue. If Pelfrey had pitched one more inning he would be a qualifying pitcher and would be fifth from last in K/9. Of course Diamond and Correia are one and three, but that would be off-tangent too.


My definition of pitch-to-contact may be different from others and may vary depending on the day. I think pitch to contact equals lack of walks, so maybe something like a BB/9 of less than 3.7 (or 3.5 or some number)... other days, I might say it is a starting pitcher with a K-rate of less than maybe 9 (or 8.5 or something). (Note - I also only include starting pitchers who have to work for more than one inning at a time in this... for relievers, I would hope for more Ks.)

I don't think it has anything to do with "bearing down"... 95% (or whatever number you want) aren't going to get a strikeout all the time in that situation, but they may get a weak pop-up, or a double play or something good). "Bearing down" sounds like a form of effort, and I certainly don't question his effort.

#20 nicksaviking

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Posted 18 June 2013 - 10:57 AM

I don't think it has anything to do with "bearing down"... 95% (or whatever number you want) aren't going to get a strikeout all the time in that situation, but they may get a weak pop-up, or a double play or something good). "Bearing down" sounds like a form of effort, and I certainly don't question his effort.


I don't think it's a lack of effort, it's a lack of ability. However many pitchers with the ability to miss bats do have higher strikeout numbers in high leverage situations, which tells me they in fact can bear down and dial up the heat or make a pitch break a little bit more in a clutch situation.

There are curretnly 100 qualifying starting pitchers. 55 of them have a K/9 over 7.00, 45 of them have a K/9 of 7.5. So I guess I'd give a satisfactory chance at acquiring a strikeout in high leverage situations to roughly 50% of the pitchers in the league.