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Official Day 1 Draft Thread

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#41 mike wants wins

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:41 AM

Not to mention the Yankees and others have multiple picks....while they can't go over slot in the draft, players know the Yankees will reward them well if they make the majors....I just think undershooting talent is super risky, way more risky than taking a HS player......

#42 Vervehound

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:43 AM

I was thinking about that this morning, if the Twins were going to go underslot, which they shouldn't, why would they go all the way down to get McGuire? Why not go for Ball, Shipley or Stankek? Or if they wanted to go farther down the list Bickford or Clarkin?


probably because the perceived discount wouldn't be enough to get another guy high on their board. the two-fer makes sense but there's no telling who is going to be there at 43.

that said, if stewart is sticking to his guns re: a&M (which seems to be posturing right now), this might be my second favourite realistic option.

#43 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:55 AM

[FONT=Arial]Posted ImageJIM BOWDEN@JimBowdenESPNxm20s[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]Bowden Big Board: 1.Kris Bryant 2.Mark Appel 3.Jonathan Gray 4.Clint Frazier 5.Kohl Stewart 6.Austin Meadows 7.Braden Shipley 8. DJ Peterson[/FONT]
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#44 DaveW

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 09:07 AM

probably because the perceived discount wouldn't be enough to get another guy high on their board. the two-fer makes sense but there's no telling who is going to be there at 43.

that said, if stewart is sticking to his guns re: a&M (which seems to be posturing right now), this might be my second favourite realistic option.


Any young Latin boys we should be looking at in round 2?

#45 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 09:33 AM

[FONT=Arial]Posted ImageChris Crawford@CrawfordChrisV9s[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]I opened the draft chat for your questions, we'll get started in about 15-20 minutes. #mlbdraft http://bit.ly/18Zcf5X

Wow - sounds like he's going to go pretty much all day, get your Twins questions in:

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[FONT=Arial]Welcome everyone. We'll go for a few hours -- assuming you have questions for a few hours -- and then we'll take a break and get going through the night. I should warn you that I will be sporadic in this, as I am chatting over at ESPN as well. We'll see how good I am at multi-tasking.[/FONT]

Edited by InfraRen, 06 June 2013 - 09:56 AM.

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#46 Red Bull

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 09:53 AM

It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB. On the other hand, with a HS starter you can refine his delivery while he is young and monitor the stress put on the arm. IMO, college coaches can be pretty hard on arms. I just don't like the argument that since he is a HS pitcher he is "super risky."


Actualy more college pitchers taken in the first round over the last 40 or so years have made it to the majors, however on the average a HS pitcher that does make it is usualy better than a college arm. Is that what you meant? Heres a graph I found
































Category
College Pitchers 1965-2008
High School Pitchers 1965-2008
Drafted
356
307
Made Majors
253 (71.1%)
176 (57.3%)
Made Avg. WAR
6.65
7.23
100+ Appearances
147 (41.3%)
100 (32.6%)
100+ Avg. WAR
11.58
12.69



It shows a higher percent of college pitchers make the majors but HS pitchers are usualy better.

#47 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 09:56 AM

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Comment From Cory
Any chance Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to #4? I'm hoping for Appel or Gray on the Twins.

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I would put the odds on one of the three being available at 45 percent. Most likely Bryant.

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#48 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:00 AM

Disagree....A more likely scenario would be Appell falling with Stewart available and the Twins taking someone like Reese Mcguire....I do not buy the twins taking Stewart. They have not taken a HS pitcher with their first pick in a draft since Dan Serafini in 1992 26th overall. Let alone one with signability concerns and leverage on his side. This is the 4th pick, I just dont see it. My #1 wish is Bryant followed by Gray.


Of course if Appel fell that means another team above the Twins were going to underslot route. That team would still be picking before the Twins at #43 and would be able to snag Manaea or whoever you are hopeing for at that point.

I don't think the Twins are going to pass up the BPA due to signability. Stewart and Appel won't be nearly as hard to sign once the deadline approaches.

#49 Red Bull

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:03 AM

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Comment From Cory
Any chance Appel, Gray or Bryant fall to #4? I'm hoping for Appel or Gray on the Twins.

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I would put the odds on one of the three being available at 45 percent. Most likely Bryant.

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I find that hard to believe. I would say its atleast a 55-60% chance one of them makes it to the Twins. I mean I could be wrong but how in many drafts have the top 3 rated guys actualy all been picked in the top 3? It just seems like one of them will fall for sure, especialy with the way the draft is set up now

#50 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:11 AM

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Comment From Guest
Kris Bryant = Miguel Sano, yes or no?

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[TD="class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]9:04[/TD]
[TD="class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text"]I think Sano is slightly better, which is no knock on Bryant.[/TD]

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Comment From Chris
Would the Twins draft Bryant if he falls to the 4?

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[TD="class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]9:05[/TD]
[TD="class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text"]If Gray/Appel are off the board, yes.[/TD]

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Comment From Andrew
If the Big 3 shake-up does go down, do you see the Twins taking one of them (Bryant,Appel,Gray) for sure over Kohl Stewart? Have heard from local baseball writers they "love" Stewart.

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[TD="class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]9:07[/TD]
[TD="class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text"]Love isn't strong enough of a word, but if Bryant or Gray are available, I think they're the pick. It's close though, kind of a divided room.[/TD]

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Comment From Greg
What are your thoughts on Ryan Boldt? Poor man's David Dahl?

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[TD="class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]9:17[/TD]
[TD="class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text"]Wouldn't call him a poor mans anything. He's got three 60 tools. The injury though makes him a very volatile prospect.[/TD]

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Comment From David
who was better coming out of HS into their respective drafts, Shelby Miller, Koll Stewart or Lance McCullers?

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[TD="class: chatmsgtime, bgcolor: #F6F6F6"]9:20
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[TD="class: chatmsgtext altcaster_text"]Kohl Stewart. I wasn't a huge fan of McCullers and I think Stewart has more helium than Miller did. Though Miller is/was fantastic.[/TD]

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Edited by InfraRen, 06 June 2013 - 10:20 AM.

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#51 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:16 AM

[FONT=Arial]Posted ImageAaron Gleeman@AaronGleeman3m[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]For whatever it's worth, I talked to a buddy in another team's front office who thinks the Twins will draft Kohl Stewart no matter what.[/FONT]
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#52 TheLeviathan

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:17 AM

My trust in the Twins evaluating hitters has me crossing my fingers for Bryant.

#53 markos

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:23 AM

There is also this from Baseball America:
Top 100 Draft Flashback: What Does It All Mean? - BaseballAmerica.com

[TABLE="class: table-striped, width: 610"]
[TR="class: header-row"]
[TD="bgcolor: #076392, colspan: 11"]PITCHERS • TOP 100 PICKS • 1989-2008 DRAFTS
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[/TR]
[TR="class: subheader-row"]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7"]Position[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7"]Source[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right"]Signed[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right"]Graduate[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right"]Graduate%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right"]Impact[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right"]Impact%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #BAB8B7, align: right"]Top 5
[/TD]
[/TR]

[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]RHP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]HS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]275[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]90[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]32.7%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]31[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]11.3%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]198[/TD]


RHP
4YR
[TD="align: right"]367[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]136[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]37.1%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]55[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]15.0%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]207[/TD]


[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]LHP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]HS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]113[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]37[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]32.7%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]17[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]15.0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]157[/TD]


LHP
4YR
[TD="align: right"]146[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]70[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]47.9%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]21[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14.4%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]140[/TD]


[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]HS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]388[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]127[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]32.7%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]48[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]12.4%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]355[/TD]



4YR
[TD="align: right"]513[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]206[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]40.2%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]76[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]14.8%[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]347[/TD]


[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"][/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]TOTAL[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]901[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]333[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]37.0%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]124[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]13.8%[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #F9F9F9, align: right"]702[/TD]

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Graduate = 30 MLB games • Impact = 5 career WAR • Top 5 = WAR sum for five best

[FONT=Helvetica Neue, Helvetica, Arial, Liberation Sans, sans-serif]Beyond this data, I feel that baseball has completely changed how they handle young pitchers in the last 10 years, which is why I think that even studies like this over-sell the risk of high school pitchers. The over-use of pitchers is still rampant in college. [/FONT]

#54 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:25 AM

[FONT=Arial]Posted ImageDarren Wolfson@DarrenWolfson14s[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]FWIW, the #MNTwins have not reached out on Colin Moran or Austin Meadows. Most signs still point to Kohl Stewart at No. 4 tonight.[/FONT]
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#55 boylan

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:33 AM

Not a fan of a Kohl Stewart pick. All scouting reports uniformly give him a very low grade for command and if you look at the scouting tape on the net he very deliberately looks at his feet mid-motion on every single pitch. As a consequence he picks up the target late and his pitches, while having a very nice trajectory, wander around the plate area.

I've never seen a coach successfully correct this except through "muscle memory" (which is a BS approach to something like this) and I think Stewart winds up as a middle reliever or back-end rotation guy at best.

There are better options.

#56 Red Bull

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:35 AM

Has anyone seen Klaws new mock yet? He said he was working on one last night, I dont know if its out yet?

#57 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:35 AM

[FONT=Arial]^It's out, just haven't seen it yet. (I'm not an Insider)[/FONT]
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#58 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:36 AM

[FONT=Arial]Posted ImageDarren Wolfson@DarrenWolfson14s[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]Advisor via text just now w/ a stake in the #MNTwins draft: "Stewart is going 4." Me: "What if he goes 1 to hometown?" Advisor: "He's not. "[/FONT]
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#59 Red Bull

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:37 AM

Not a fan of a Kohl Stewart pick. All scouting reports uniformly give him a very low grade for command and if you look at the scouting tape on the net he very deliberately looks at his feet mid-motion on every single pitch. As a consequence he picks up the target late and his pitches, while having a very nice trajectory, wander around the plate area.

I've never seen a coach successfully correct this except through "muscle memory" (which is a BS approach to something like this) and I think Stewart winds up as a middle reliever or back-end rotation guy at best.

There are better options.


Who do you work for again? Are you a scout for a MLB team, HS or a College? Or something else? You must be a good pro scout to see something nobody else sees.

#60 birdwatcher

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 10:38 AM

This entire discussion of course is centered on ranking information gleaned from a handful of sources. These people are credible for sure, but it's important to remember their resource limitations. The baseball teams have multiple scouts who see these prospects many times, over the entire continuum of their amateur careers. Two dozen scouting pros will have in the least studied lots of video. They'll have meaningful information about their character and makeup. They'll have had a lot of discussion about each top prospect. So it shouldn't be at all surprising if a player that BA for example ranks as say, the tenth best prospect, goes in the top five. And not because of an underslot strategy.

So, we might want to get ready for the outrage if our team selects a prospect that doen't line up with Keith Law's point of view. I mean, just maybe the Twins truly believe that Frazier is the better prospect and not Stewart, just to throw out names. If that happens, it won't be because they aren't as competent as Jonathan Mayo. It''ll be a decision based on better information and a sounder basis.