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Official Day 1 Draft Thread

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#21 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 07:31 AM

[FONT=Lucida Grande]In a nutshell:[/FONT]

[FONT=Lucida Grande]I'd be happy with Appel, Gray, Stewart, Bryant or Frazier. [/FONT]

[FONT=Lucida Grande]I'd be very happy with Appel, Gray, or Stewart.[/FONT]

[FONT=Lucida Grande]I know Bryant would be a steal, I just prefer a pitcher, but realize he'd be BPA.

If "Big 3" gone - give me Stewart please.[/FONT]
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#22 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 07:38 AM

[FONT=Arial]Posted ImageDarren Wolfson@DarrenWolfson6s[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial]Tom Windle's camp hears he has a good shot to go between 30-55 tonight. Some teams in play: Tigers, Royals, White Sox, maybe Twins. #gophers[/FONT]
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#23 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 07:41 AM

Jim Callis Mock - 4.0 Just Posted:

[FONT=Helvetica Neue]4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Minnesota needs power arms, and assuming that the big three will be gone, I’ve had the Twins tied to Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart in each of my previous first-round projections. Now there’s word they may look in a different direction, but I think that’s mostly just frustration with how predraft talks have gone with the Texas A&M quarterback recruit. If they do pass on Stewart and there are no surprises in the top three picks, Minnesota likely would take Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefthander Trey Ball, Nevada righty Braden Shipley and Frazier would be other options.[/FONT]
[FONT=Helvetica Neue]PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Kohl Stewart/2.0: Stewart/3.0: Stewart)[/FONT]

Mock Draft 4.0: The Final Countdown - BaseballAmerica.com
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#24 markos

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:01 AM

This is a rather interesting article from BA about success/failure rates of Top 100 draft picks during the past 20 years.

Top 100 Draft Flashback: What Does It All Mean? - BaseballAmerica.com

Scouting/player development has changed a lot in the past two decades, so I'm not sure how meaningful the results from the early 1990s are. However, it does provide some interesting information. Additionally, this is an analysis of the top-100 picks in each draft, so these trends may not apply to the elite talents picked at the top of each draft.

Some takeaways:

1) College pitchers have a slightly higher probability of success than high school pitchers. In particularly, college left-handers are one of the safest picks for at least making it to the majors.

2) College position players have the highest probability of success, with 3rd basemen having the highest likelihood of all positions of both making the majors and being an impact player. (Kris Bryant anyone?)

3) High school position players are the riskiest draft picks, specifically HS outfielders.

Lots of other good nuggets of information.

#25 BUGuy37

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:02 AM

Those are his 2011 stats from when he was a sophomore. Here are his stats from this past season: Kohl Stewart (St. Pius X High School) Baseball Stats - MaxPreps

40 innings, 13 hits, 16 walks, 59 SO and 0.18 ERA. (1 earned run allowed all season).

MaxPreps isn't the most intuitive about finding the correct seasons for players. I made the same mistake yesterday looking at Reese McGuire's stats.


13 hits allowed in 40 innings pitched and only 1 earned fun allowed all year? Holy &%*$, my mind is unable to compute those numbers!

#26 InfraRen

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:06 AM

Chris Crawford Final Mock:

Twins - Stewart

http://mlbdraftinsid...the-mock-final/
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#27 DaveW

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:10 AM

I'm not concerned Gray tested hot for adderall I am concerned that he wasn't smart enough to just go get a prescription for it, they hand those out like candy.

#28 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:16 AM

I'm not concerned Gray tested hot for adderall I am concerned that he wasn't smart enough to just go get a prescription for it, they hand those out like candy.


Hah. That was my first thought as well.

Really? Do we care about college kids taking Aderall? Considering the crap I was doing in college, that's really tame stuff.

Cocaine-fueled multi-night orgies might be a problem to consider. Taking Aderall during finals doesn't even rate.

#29 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:19 AM

Well, I'll take Bryant over Stewart (but Gray or Appel over either). After the year Bryant had - i feel like every team that passed on him is going to be wondering why they outsmarted themselves. I don't think his historical performance has had the time to sink in yet.


Agree and I'm a guy who's always screaming for a pitcher, even admittedly last year when I preferred Appel and Gausman to Buxton.

But Bryant just looks special as does Appel and Gray. Stewart looks special too and I'd be thrilled to have him, but he just doesn't seem like the sure thing the other three do.

#30 nicksaviking

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:23 AM

Jim Callis Mock - 4.0 Just Posted:

[FONT=Helvetica Neue]4. MINNESOTA TWINS: Minnesota needs power arms, and assuming that the big three will be gone, I’ve had the Twins tied to Texas high school righthander Kohl Stewart in each of my previous first-round projections. Now there’s word they may look in a different direction, but I think that’s mostly just frustration with how predraft talks have gone with the Texas A&M quarterback recruit. If they do pass on Stewart and there are no surprises in the top three picks, Minnesota likely would take Washington prep catcher Reese McGuire. Indiana high school lefthander Trey Ball, Nevada righty Braden Shipley and Frazier would be other options.[/FONT]
[FONT=Helvetica Neue]PROJECTED PICK: Kohl Stewart.
(Mock Draft 1.0: Kohl Stewart/2.0: Stewart/3.0: Stewart)[/FONT]

Mock Draft 4.0: The Final Countdown - BaseballAmerica.com


I was thinking about that this morning, if the Twins were going to go underslot, which they shouldn't, why would they go all the way down to get McGuire? Why not go for Ball, Shipley or Stankek? Or if they wanted to go farther down the list Bickford or Clarkin?

#31 John Bonnes

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:25 AM

It has been proven that a HS starter is no more risky than a college starter. College starters are just closer to the MLB.


I've seen this on this board from a couple of members. Anyone have a link to this study? I just don't believe it.

#32 Mike Sixel

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:27 AM

Just curious, but if you would not take a pitcher high out of fear of injury/failure....how do you proprose your team ever get elite pitching?

Appel
Gray
Bryant/Stewart
Stanek
Shipley
Anyone else

One of the best opening day rosters in years. Now go get 'em.


#33 DaveW

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:28 AM

ugh all this is confusing. Im trying to learn stuff about the Twins and was reading all this and decided to sign up so I could ask for some info. Can you guys tell me some stuff about the Twins? School project btw... :)

A girl, on the internet?

Hi w-what is y-your..... q-question a-again?

:o:o

#34 DaveW

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:29 AM

I've seen this on this board from a couple of members. Anyone have a link to this study? I just don't believe it.


It makes sense, because all of the high school starters chosen are going to be high upside guys (thus why they are getting drafted out of high school) to me it seems arm injuries etc usually don't come into play later on once players are in the minors and throwing more than they ever have before (and harder)

#35 John Bonnes

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:32 AM

Chris Crawford Final Mock:

Twins - Stewart

The Mock: Final |


Basically this mock says: The Big 3 followed by the Twins taking Kohl Stewart. That seems to be the consensus just because I don't think anyone wants to speculate how crazy things get if the Astros or Rockie go the other way. But between both of those rumors, I have to think one of those is going to happen.

My prediction: I don't know how exactly, but one of the The Big 3 will be available to the Twins - and they'll still take Stewart. And I will be sad.

Edited by John Bonnes, 06 June 2013 - 08:34 AM.


#36 DaveW

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:33 AM

Hah. That was my first thought as well.

Really? Do we care about college kids taking Aderall? Considering the crap I was doing in college, that's really tame stuff.

Cocaine-fueled multi-night orgies might be a problem to consider. Taking Aderall during finals doesn't even rate.


The only thing that would MAYBE raise a red flag is if he took aderall to preform better in baseball, I took one of my ex gf's pills last year before a baseball game last season to see if it would effect my game, and low and behold it did in fact make me focus/pick up the pitches better.

But then again if that was the case he could easily get a scrip.

Cocaine-fueled multi night orgies would put him #1 in my book, ahead of Bryce Harper. (Can't wait for that guy crying about us talking about drinking beer to find this thread)

#37 DaveW

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:35 AM

one of the The Big 3 will be available to the Twins - and they'll still take Stewart. And I will be sad.

No way. The Twins have proven they will take the best player available time and time again, no way they would let Gray or Morran past them. The only reason they would let Appel past them is if they knew they wouldn't be able to sign him.

#38 worm33

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:35 AM

Basically this goes The Big 3 followed by the Twins taking Kohl Stewart. That seems to be the consensus just because I don't think anyone wants to speculate how crazy things get if the Astros or Rockie go the other way. But between both of those rumors, I have to think one of those is going to happen.

My prediction: I don't know how exactly, but one of the The Big 3 will be available to the Twins - and they'll still take Stewart. And I will be sad.


Disagree....A more likely scenario would be Appell falling with Stewart available and the Twins taking someone like Reese Mcguire....I do not buy the twins taking Stewart. They have not taken a HS pitcher with their first pick in a draft since Dan Serafini in 1992 26th overall. Let alone one with signability concerns and leverage on his side. This is the 4th pick, I just dont see it. My #1 wish is Bryant followed by Gray.

#39 Vervehound

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:35 AM

13 hits allowed in 40 innings pitched and only 1 earned fun allowed all year? Holy &%*$, my mind is unable to compute those numbers!


pretty typical ace high school numbers - i'm guessing the competition was pretty fierce in that part of the world but it's hard to extrapolate anything from h.s. stats.

#40 diehardtwinsfan

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Posted 06 June 2013 - 08:38 AM

Personally, I think Houston goes Moran and then grabs Manaea in the 2nd. Not a bad idea at all, as both were considered top 10 talents at one point. Manaea's slide had a lot more to do with terrible timing of that injury than anything else. This idea that Colorado might pass on Bryant for a different hitter surprises me a lot. The underslot thing can work out if Houston doesn't go Moran, but if they do, the Rockies have to know that there are at least 2 names they expect to slide that they can throw a ton of cash at, cause Houston will grab one of them.