Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email
Photo

Article: Twins Reversing Some Ugly Trends

  • Please log in to reply
64 replies to this topic

#21 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,779 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 08:49 AM

Ask the 2011 Cardinals or Rays if they are playing meaningful games if they are 10 games back in September.



Sure, it can happen. Name the pitcher on this roster that is going to make that happen. Gibson will be shut down by then, so don't name him. It just isn't likely, or even a little likely, to happen.

I'm happy they are slightly better than most of us thought they would be. I am. But that's not going to cloud my judgement about what I think is likely to happen in the future.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#22 beckmt

beckmt

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,767 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 08:52 AM

It has been better except for the starting pitching. We are now on version 2. It may take a few to see what we have.

#23 Tibs

Tibs

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,153 posts
  • LocationDenver

Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:03 AM

Sure, it can happen. Name the pitcher on this roster that is going to make that happen. Gibson will be shut down by then, so don't name him. It just isn't likely, or even a little likely, to happen.

I'm happy they are slightly better than most of us thought they would be. I am. But that's not going to cloud my judgement about what I think is likely to happen in the future.


No, it's not likely to happen. It wasn't likely to happen with the Rays and Cardinals in 2011 either, and they were better teams than the Twins this year. However, every game should be treated as a meaningful game because you play to win the game.

#24 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,779 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:05 AM

Fangraphs:
2012:
wRC+: 14th overall
Fld: 16th overall
Bsr: 4th overall
WAR: 18th overall

2013:
wRC+: 21st
Fld: 29th
Bsr: 12th
WAR: 26th

edit: if I read that correctly, they are actually worse at every aspect of the game than last year.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#25 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,779 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:06 AM

No, it's not likely to happen. It wasn't likely to happen with the Rays and Cardinals in 2011 either, and they were better teams than the Twins this year. However, every game should be treated as a meaningful game because you play to win the game.



I'm not sure what that means. Did I ever say any game was not meaningful? I'm happy to converse on this thread, but now I've lost track of the conversation.

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#26 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 11,087 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:55 AM

And you've illustrated the same thing by using as your basepoint a Twins record following a period of small sample size under-performance (10 game losing streak). Recall that before that streak they were above .500, including a decent road trip that included Boston and Detroit.

Bottom line is that the Twins don't suck this year. They're not a good team, and there are clearly areas which need to be addressed in the off-season, but they are a better team than last year, which is what the whole point of this article is and which deserves to be recognized and given credit.


I think that SSS was my point- that in trying to draw meta-conclusions from mini-data samples- ie, incremental improvements over a couple months led to false optimism as late as June 25 last year- the definite incremental improvements outlined in this article this year will likely lead to the same false optimism- most of the underlying problems.... and the same problem-behavior-making players are still there.

The one meta-conclusion we can draw is that the SP still "sucks", and many other data-based performance aspects still "suck" too---only worse than last year--which makes any meta-conclusion that the Twins will be playing relevant games in September---absurd.

Edited by jokin, 03 June 2013 - 09:58 AM.


#27 TheLeviathan

TheLeviathan

    Twins News Team

  • Members
  • 13,240 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:02 AM

No, it's not likely to happen. It wasn't likely to happen with the Rays and Cardinals in 2011 either, and they were better teams than the Twins this year. However, every game should be treated as a meaningful game because you play to win the game.


I think you're missing the context of "meaningful". Ryan said that as a way to imply that the Twins would still be fringe contenders in the last months of the season.

It's hard to see this team doing that with the current slate of issues they are facing. This winning streak has been nice, but these trends have to continue to improve. Unfortunately, there has been a lot of volatility in then instead.

#28 IdahoPilgrim

IdahoPilgrim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,424 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:18 AM

I think that SSS was my point- that in trying to draw meta-conclusions from mini-data samples- ie, incremental improvements over a couple months led to false optimism as late as June 25 last year- the definite incremental improvements outlined in this article this year will likely lead to the same false optimism- most of the underlying problems.... and the same problem-behavior-making players are still there.

The one meta-conclusion we can draw is that the SP still "sucks", and many other data-based performance aspects still "suck" too---only worse than last year--which makes any meta-conclusion that the Twins will be playing relevant games in September---absurd.


I guess we'll find out at the end of the year.

Let me just ask one question: If, at the end of the year, the Twins have won 75 games (as they are on pace to do), how will you feel? Will you be happy that they have shown improvement in the one category that ultimately matters (W-L)? Or will you be upset that they didn't tank completely and force the organization to adopt a more radical change in approach? Or will it be some combination of both?

#29 Mike Sixel

Mike Sixel

    Now living in Oregon

  • Members
  • 22,779 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:23 AM

sbk......I know you aren't asking me, but here is my answer:

if they win 75, I'll be happy if:
The young guys are better, and it looks like it was not built on Doumit, Morneau, Willingham

if they win 75, I'll not be happy if:
Hicks, Plouffe, Dozier are not good, and no progress was made in the starting pitching

75 really doesn't do much for me personally, it is not bad enough to get the top pick, and it is not good enough for the games to be interesting in September.

75 really only matters to me in terms of how they get there.....since 75 does nothing for the playoffs this year, the key for me is, how does that 75 indicate they might be likely to do in the next two years?

I don't know, it is a site to discuss sports, not airline safety.....maybe we should take it less seriously?


#30 IdahoPilgrim

IdahoPilgrim

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 2,424 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:33 AM

sbk......I know you aren't asking me, but here is my answer:

if they win 75, I'll be happy if:
The young guys are better, and it looks like it was not built on Doumit, Morneau, Willingham

if they win 75, I'll not be happy if:
Hicks, Plouffe, Dozier are not good, and no progress was made in the starting pitching


So basically you want to finish the year with a realistic hope, based on observable data, that the future is going to be brighter and that the improvements are going to be sustainable. I have no problem with that.

#31 MichiganTwins

MichiganTwins

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 346 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 11:57 AM

Agree with the last two posts. I think that this season's main objective is to improve as a team, but also evaluate the young guys including Plouffe and Parms. We need to see what we have once our veterans are gone (excluding Mauer.)

#32 Siehbiscuit

Siehbiscuit

    Overweight 3rd baseman

  • Members
  • 364 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 03:27 PM

sbk......I know you aren't asking me, but here is my answer:

if they win 75, I'll be happy if:
The young guys are better, and it looks like it was not built on Doumit, Morneau, Willingham

if they win 75, I'll not be happy if:
Hicks, Plouffe, Dozier are not good, and no progress was made in the starting pitching

75 really doesn't do much for me personally, it is not bad enough to get the top pick, and it is not good enough for the games to be interesting in September.

75 really only matters to me in terms of how they get there.....since 75 does nothing for the playoffs this year, the key for me is, how does that 75 indicate they might be likely to do in the next two years?


I agree with this as well. We get so involved with Fangraphs and BRef and all the advance stats, but there are so many variables as well. Hicks is a year closer to showing his potential (or lack thereof), we'll no more about Plouffe, Florimon, Parmalee and others. Wins and losses are what matters and having an opportunity in the postseason. Who cares if the stats say the Orioles weren't as good as they were last year. They made the playoffs and had a CHANCE. This year I want as a fan to see improvement in the eyeball test, because I watch the games with my eyes and the product means more watching improvement than just seeing it on a sheet of paper.

#33 YourHouseIsMyHouse

YourHouseIsMyHouse

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 1,235 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 05:44 PM

The biggest reason for the success is the power explosion being put on by the Twins. They're hitting lots of HRs now. I think a lot of that comes from the mediocre opposing pitchers, but if they can keep producing runs through this "new" and "unheard of" method to score, we should be good moving forward. I expected this lineup to hit more dingers with Carroll sitting and the loss of Span+Revere. It was a little surprising that we weren't hitting many early. That was mostly because of Doumit, Willingham, and Parmelee starting slow, but they are doing a little better now.

#34 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 11,087 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 06:07 PM

I guess we'll find out at the end of the year.

Let me just ask one question: If, at the end of the year, the Twins have won 75 games (as they are on pace to do), how will you feel? Will you be happy that they have shown improvement in the one category that ultimately matters (W-L)? Or will you be upset that they didn't tank completely and force the organization to adopt a more radical change in approach? Or will it be some combination of both?


Well, first off, that's 4 questions, not one!:)

Upset that they DIDN'T tank? Huh? Nope. What would have made me happy was for the Twins to do what Boston and Cleveland attempted to do in the offseason. Both of those teams cleared extraordinarily significant payroll room to do a remake/makeover/hole-filling... while maintaining their solid core players and soon-up-and-coming prospects- all without breaking the bank to do so (like the Dodgers and Angels did).

The positive spin-take on the Twins season thus far taken by the OP is akin to being on a clipper ship in the middle of the Indian Ocean 3 days out to sea and trying to spin positive on the favorable winds and plenty of less-than-tasty MRE rations while ignoring the obvious facts that the boat's radio is Kaput, the auxiliary motor is dangerously low on fuel and the ship is sinking at a rate that guarantees the clipper ship will be at the bottom of the sea in 2 days.

Edited by jokin, 03 June 2013 - 06:09 PM.


#35 edavis0308

edavis0308

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 576 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 06:45 PM

I feel like this team is in for a world of hurt when the bullpen starts breaking down and can't protect the few leads the starters will have. I don't think that is some profound shocking statement to anyone, but our home runs better continue to keep us in more high run affairs. The cut down on errors at the very least has been refreshing.

#36 birdwatcher

birdwatcher

    Senior Member

  • Members
  • 3,148 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 08:53 PM

Stop trying to sound smarter than everyone else and enjoy some wins already people!


Exactly. Coming into the season, if one's expectations were anything above having a team that was in the game more often than not, more fun to watch, a little more likely to win, with a few glimpses of a bright future, then one was setting oneself up for unhappiness.

#37 Riverbrian

Riverbrian

    Goofy Moderator

  • Twins Mods
  • 17,299 posts
  • LocationGrand Forks, ND

Posted 03 June 2013 - 09:50 PM

The positive spin-take on the Twins season thus far taken by the OP is akin to being on a clipper ship in the middle of the Indian Ocean 3 days out to sea and trying to spin positive on the favorable winds and plenty of less-than-tasty MRE rations while ignoring the obvious facts that the boat's radio is Kaput, the auxiliary motor is dangerously low on fuel and the ship is sinking at a rate that guarantees the clipper ship will be at the bottom of the sea in 2 days.


I disagree with this paragraph but I liked the way you typed it.

A Skeleton walks into a bar and says... "Give me a beer... And a mop".

 

President of the "Baseball Player Positional Flexibility" Club 

Founded 4-23-16 

 

Strike Zone Automation Advocate


#38 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 11,087 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:01 PM

I disagree with this paragraph but I liked the way you typed it.


Thanks...I think? I hope I'm wrong in my prediction, it just seems that if a little more of a concerted effort and financial commitment had been made in addressing the holes in the pitching staff and position players- this story would never need to be written. I give Ryan and Gardy credit in changing up some of their old-way, on- and off-field strategies... add the fresh approach and just another couple key cheap position players and 2 healthy and legitimate mid-to-second tier starters and this boat stays afloat well into September, right in the thick of the AL Central Regatta.

Edited by jokin, 03 June 2013 - 10:05 PM.


#39 stringer bell

stringer bell

    WAR? What is it good for?

  • Twins Mods
  • 7,883 posts
  • LocationZumbrota MN

Posted 03 June 2013 - 10:18 PM

This is the Tigers year. Cleveland basically did what you are calling for and is hanging with the Kitties for now, but I doubt they hold up. Perhaps next year and certainly by 2015, the Twins will have improved personnel and could challenge the best in the Central. I am pretty confident that the lineup will be very good. I am less confident about the pitching staff.

#40 jokin

jokin

    Twins News Team

  • Twins News Team
  • 11,087 posts

Posted 03 June 2013 - 11:10 PM

This is the Tigers year. Cleveland basically did what you are calling for and is hanging with the Kitties for now, but I doubt they hold up. Perhaps next year and certainly by 2015, the Twins will have improved personnel and could challenge the best in the Central. I am pretty confident that the lineup will be very good. I am less confident about the pitching staff.


Yes, the starting pitching staff situation has not been adequately addressed for yet another year. Unlike many on this board, I don't think it's reasonable to have to wait until 2015- in a brand new ballpark, with a core of 2 former MVPs and 3 potential All Stars trying to bust the doors down to get into the lineup, and crying poor and selling to the public that coming in at around 60% of potentially available payroll dollars is an acceptable trade-off to having "patience" until 2015 or beyond.

I noticed you left the Red Sox out of your response. I'll take what Cleveland did, at least they are making the effort to get relevant with an intelligent plan and intelligent management to implemet the plan. I would be far more forgiving of the Indians if I was a fan if they fail this year than I am for the Twins for barely make an effort at competing this year.