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Could Jose Berrios be promoted?

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#1 John Bonnes

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 07:34 AM

Just checked out Berrios' stats in Cedar Rapids. I know he's young and started late and only has six starts, but wow. Do people who are close than me to ths think he could have a shot at Ft. Myers this year?

#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 07:39 AM

I don't think they'd do it until the break but he could be a quick riser. Most scouts mention that he's physically mature so there isn't that reason to hold him back. If he continues to dominate like this, he could move up to A+.

I suspect this thread will soon devolve into a discussion of whether the Twins would ever rush a prospect though.

#3 Brock Beauchamp

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 07:42 AM

To me, there are two correct courses of action.

1. Don't promote him until he's 27. You don't want to rush the kid.

2. Put him in the Minnesota rotation this evening.

Everything in between is just too controversial.

#4 SD Buhr

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 07:47 AM

If I had to bet, I'd say it's unlikely he moves up this year. Maybe late, if injuries or other factors come in to play.

More than once, I think he's let his emotions get away from him a little bit when things don't go well. Keep in mind, he's still a teenager. I think he would mature a great deal under the oversight of steadying influence like Gary Lucas for a full season.

He's got talent though, no doubt about that.

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#5 grover738

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 07:53 AM

I saw his last start in CR. He gave up quite a few hits, and while some were more well placed than well struck, quite a few were hit well. But one thing you won't see in the box score is how he reacted (poorly) to defensive lapses. He should have gotten out of the first unscathed, but the 2B Pimentel completely botched a very routine grounder. Berrios was clearly upset with him, shaking his head, staring at the ground. The pitching coach bolted out of the dugout and had a very one way conversation with him. Later in the inning, the catcher messed up a first & third situation with a really poor throw to 2nd, resulting in a delayed steal of home. I checked Berrios, his reaction was a bit more muted, but he still clearly showed his dissapointment in his defense.

So, if he is promoted a bit more slowly that he should be based on the numbers, I think his lack of compsure on the mound may be one reason.

We spend a lot of time on the forum looking at numbers, mechanics, body types, etc, sometime we forget these are pretty much kids. Half of them are probably scouting the crowd looking for good looking women. I saw four of the players pile into a beat up Dodge Durango after the game, laughing, goofing off, not a care in the world. Those days were 20 years ago for me, but when I saw that, I was thinking that looks like trouble, looked like they were off to a rock quarry for a kegger.

#6 fairweather

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 08:07 AM

He's got great control they need to move him along FAST!

#7 mike wants wins

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 08:34 AM

I bet he is not.
Lighten up Francis....

#8 boylan

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 08:34 AM

I saw his last start in CR. He gave up quite a few hits, and while some were more well placed than well struck, quite a few were hit well. But one thing you won't see in the box score is how he reacted (poorly) to defensive lapses. He should have gotten out of the first unscathed, but the 2B Pimentel completely botched a very routine grounder. Berrios was clearly upset with him, shaking his head, staring at the ground. The pitching coach bolted out of the dugout and had a very one way conversation with him. Later in the inning, the catcher messed up a first & third situation with a really poor throw to 2nd, resulting in a delayed steal of home. I checked Berrios, his reaction was a bit more muted, but he still clearly showed his dissapointment in his defense.

So, if he is promoted a bit more slowly that he should be based on the numbers, I think his lack of compsure on the mound may be one reason.

We spend a lot of time on the forum looking at numbers, mechanics, body types, etc, sometime we forget these are pretty much kids. Half of them are probably scouting the crowd looking for good looking women. I saw four of the players pile into a beat up Dodge Durango after the game, laughing, goofing off, not a care in the world. Those days were 20 years ago for me, but when I saw that, I was thinking that looks like trouble, looked like they were off to a rock quarry for a kegger.


I was sitting next to you at the game. :D

I agree with everything you said but one thing to note is that he had family at the game that he paid a lot of attention to after he was taken out so he probably felt some extra pressure.

I didn't think he pitched that well. I saw few pitches over 90mph and from my angle behind the dugout he his pitches looked flat and a little higher than I would have liked.

#9 Seth Stohs

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 08:42 AM

I love his BB/K rate. He has struggled a little more his last couple of outings. I also think they're going to be more cautious with him on innings. Also, hopefully, the Kernels will make the playoffs and be able to use him. I don't see him being promoted, certainly not based on six starts. Let's get him to 75 innings or so and see how things are going.

#10 Vervehound

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 08:47 AM

berrios has given up 39 hits in 33.1 innings and has a whip of 1.35. he may get the call to ft. myers at some point this year due to being ahead of the pack when we start moving people but his numbers aren't screaming a promotion by any means.

#11 Steve Lein

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 09:42 AM

I've thought all along he'd move up prospect lists faster than he would through the system because of how the Twins treat pitchers like him. If you look at their history with HS draftees, their promotion schedule is very deliberate, 1 level per year. I think B.J. Hermsen's schedule is a good comparison of how they'll handle Berrios in his first full year. Even though Berrios has a lot more talent, the Twins aren't going to treat him any different while he's so young.

I'd expect him to pitch in Fort Myers this year at some point, but he'll start there next season as well.

If his stuff had any projection, he'd be thought of even higher than he already is.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#12 kab21

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 09:57 AM

I don't understand an argument that compares the promotion pace of an inferior prospect to one that is clearly superior. I don't know if Berrios will move two levels this year but I think he will move two levels one year but I'm not sure if it's this year. It sounds like he has some baseball maturity issues and there is a little concern that he is getting hit hard when hitters can put the bat on the ball (.400 BAPIP). But that also means that he has been unlucky and his K and BB rates are amazing.

#13 Twins Twerp

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 09:59 AM

Keep him in CR I say. If he isnt dominating low A, keep him there. We also need to remember he probably needs to work on his english and living on his own in US. Like someone already stated, these are kids.

#14 nicksaviking

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 10:12 AM

I saw his last start in CR. He gave up quite a few hits, and while some were more well placed than well struck, quite a few were hit well. But one thing you won't see in the box score is how he reacted (poorly) to defensive lapses.


Interesting to know and a little concerning considering the recent benching of Rosario and the early hook for Sano due to un-Twinlike baseball behavior.

Maybe he should get a promotion to Ft. Myers simply because Mientkiewicz has already shown he's not putting up with unprofessional onfield antics.

#15 Steve Lein

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 10:29 AM

I don't understand an argument that compares the promotion pace of an inferior prospect to one that is clearly superior.


I explained that right away, "If you look at their history with HS draftees, their promotion schedule is very deliberate, 1 level per year," it hasn't mattered the talent level with Pitchers.

He's a 19 year old pitcher out of High School in his first full season of professional baseball, there's not really anything more to it than that.

Look at Pittsburgh and their handling of one of their uber-prospects, Jameson Taillon, who is a far better prospect than Berrios, yet he spent the entirety of his first full year in Low-A ball, and was limited to less than 100 innings. The next year, he spent almost all of it at high-A, making 3 starts to end the year in AA. He's back in AA this year.

It's part of getting them acclimated to the rigors of pro-ball. Going from HS to pro is a drastic difference. The difference between HS to college is also drastic, college to pro, not as much.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#16 Boone

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 11:14 AM

Look at Pittsburgh and their handling of one of their uber-prospects, Jameson Taillon, who is a far better prospect than Berrios, yet he spent the entirety of his first full year in Low-A ball, and was limited to less than 100 innings. The next year, he spent almost all of it at high-A, making 3 starts to end the year in AA. He's back in AA this year.


Although Taillon is considered a better prospect because he was drafted higher, he has never dominated the way Berrios has. In A ball, Taillon's ERA was 3.98 and he had 9.4K/9 and 4.4 K/BB while Berrios currently has an ERA of 2.70 with 10.8 K/9 and 6.7 K/BB.

It is also worth noting that Berrios, unlike many other HS SP draft picks, logged 30 innings of rookie ball the year he was drafted, which could cause the Twins to promote him earlier than usual.

However, I think that the Twins will pay close attention to his attitude and focus on the mound. If he continues to struggle in that regard, they will probably keep him in Cedar Rapids, even if he continues to dominate and post ridiculous K/BB ratios.

#17 kab21

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 11:20 AM

I explained that right away, "If you look at their history with HS draftees, their promotion schedule is very deliberate, 1 level per year," it hasn't mattered the talent level with Pitchers.


That's kind of my point. You are referencing the Twins past promotion schedules for HS pitchers. The fact is that there hasn't been a HS pitching prospect nearly as talented as Berrios in the last decade or possibly two although one might be slipping my mind. This kind of comparison is like saying that Sano/Buxton will take 4 yrs in the minors because the Twins have promoted other hitting prospects (Parmelee, Hicks and Benson) slowly. Naming one prospect (Taillon) doesn't mean much. Some HS'ers move quickly and some move slowly. Berrios might not have a really high ceiling but most have said that his stuff will play well especially at the lower levels. I don't think he will fly through the minors like some on here but so far he's setting up to move 3 levels in 2 years.

#18 Blackjack

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 12:13 PM

What’s more important, having success and building confidence or being pushed to the point of struggling so he can learn to overcome adversity?? I'd say the former – that along with the language barrier and just learning the pro routine, is enough to say that he stays where he is this year.

#19 SD Buhr

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 12:23 PM

I think it's important not to tag the kid with a "bad attitude" at this point. From what I see, he just "wants it" so bad that he allows his emotions to cost him his focus at times. Over time, he'll figure out that it's a long season and you can't let every bad bounce get to you or you'll go crazy. Once they teach him that all he can control is what he does with the ball in his hand, he'll be fine, because he cand do plenty when the ball is in his hand.

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#20 Steve Lein

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 12:39 PM

Although Taillon is considered a better prospect because he was drafted higher, he has never dominated the way Berrios has. In A ball, Taillon's ERA was 3.98 and he had 9.4K/9 and 4.4 K/BB while Berrios currently has an ERA of 2.70 with 10.8 K/9 and 6.7 K/BB.


This is a prime example of where minor league stats don't tell nearly the whole story. There are reasons Taillon is ranked near top-10 in all of baseball prospects and Berrios isn't mentioned in any top 100 lists. Just saying. Taillon is referenced everywhere as a potential ace-level pitcher, Berrios gets #2/3 projections. Will Berrios show up on those lists next year? It wouldn't surprise me, but it also won't be that high. Would his performance to date merit a promotion more than Taillon did? Sure. But that doesn't mean it should or would happen. I'd say he doesn't go to Fort Myers until August, if at all. They'll promote the guys with College experience in CR first. It's what they do.

That's kind of my point. You are referencing the Twins past promotion schedules for HS pitchers. The fact is that there hasn't been a HS pitching prospect nearly as talented as Berrios in the last decade or possibly two although one might be slipping my mind.


It's not like I'm making something up about how the Twins handle these guys, talent level taken into account high or low, it hasn't mattered.

I just looked up a few scouting reports out there for Berrios, and this a line from one of them, that is repeated in some form in all of them: "The Twins often lack aggression with their pitchers and he may not see High-A until 2014, but he could force a timetable that puts him in the big league rotation in 2016."

I don't think he's really forcing anything right now. The performance has been pretty good so far, but not dominating, and that's what it would take.

I think it would be great if they promoted him, as I do think he's more advanced than what he's going against in Low-A, but it's also good for the guy to get more exposure in the league he is in, especially in his first full season. It has been only six starts after all.

Scouting Report: Power: 30, Hitting: 50, Arm: 60, Defense: 40, Speed: 40. "Line drive swing and shows good contact and on-base abilities. Double's power at his peak. Strong arm from 2B or the OF, stiff hands. Not a fast runner, but above average instincts on the bases. Skinny body doesn't look the part, but can sneak up on you. ACL surgery sapped much of his athleticism." (Probably)


#21 TwinsFanInPhilly

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 12:43 PM

They could, but they shouldn't

#22 ashburyjohn

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 12:57 PM

Everything in between is just too controversial.


Take a chance now and then. :)

Me, I'm content to let him stay where he is now, without ruling out a promotion in a month or so. He's striking out guys, but the WHIP is high enough that I think his ERA is the outlier - an artifact of having given up no home runs at all. Let him give up a few HR but bring that WHIP down a notch, and I'm ready to see him move up. With a slightly higher WHIP plus some home runs, he could have an ERA of 6+ his first several starts at high-A, and that would accomplish little.

As others have said, an entire season in the state of Iowa might not be the worst thing for a young guy from far away. Fort Myers is not the place I want someone getting a first impression of mainland America. :)

#23 MWLFan

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 01:03 PM

I was sitting next to you at the game. :D

I agree with everything you said but one thing to note is that he had family at the game that he paid a lot of attention to after he was taken out so he probably felt some extra pressure.

I didn't think he pitched that well. I saw few pitches over 90mph and from my angle behind the dugout he his pitches looked flat and a little higher than I would have liked.


I was at this game too and agree with the comments from those other folks attending. He could be a stud pitcher, the Low Class A hitters were overmatched most of the time, but he is a work in progress with mound presence and focus. I saw the same reaction to the 1st inning error. He was not pounding his mitt or having a prolonged glare at 2b. But you could see he was letting that effect him. Now he still struck out what 9 guys in 5 innings or so, but he is only 19 and could use a bit more time to work on his head. Twins have seen their share of young head cases with talent make it to the majors and struggle beyond what their talent says the should. Kyle Lohse, Frankie Liriano, Frankie Rodriguez just name a few. He has the arm though, casue when he was on those hittesr were way overmatched and it isn't just a mid 90's fastball. He was changing speed and working around the zone. So don't think he was just blowing people away. He looks like he can pitch too and throw. Nuture this one guys.

#24 MWLFan

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 01:12 PM

I think it's important not to tag the kid with a "bad attitude" at this point. From what I see, he just "wants it" so bad that he allows his emotions to cost him his focus at times. Over time, he'll figure out that it's a long season and you can't let every bad bounce get to you or you'll go crazy. Once they teach him that all he can control is what he does with the ball in his hand, he'll be fine, because he cand do plenty when the ball is in his hand.



Agree what I saw was not attitude but dealing with the reality of failure, other peoples failures at time which cause you to work harder. I think most of us get this at work, but we aren't pulling together spreadsheets and powerpoint decks in front of thousands of people. As a teenager it maybe a case just needing to mature a bit around how to refocus and move on. From what I saw that night it is lapses in focus and not all out meltdowns, but the batters will make you pay for those moments.

#25 stringer bell

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 02:57 PM

Even though I have only seen Berrios throw literally two or three pitches (at the WBC) I have predicted he will be the next Twin to make his debut before he turns 21. Since he started late this year, it may be in his best interest to stay in Cedar Rapids for a couple of months, maybe getting a taste of the FSL late, or just sticking around for the Midwest playoffs. Next year should be his "moving " year, probably starting in Ft. Myers, but I wouldn't rule out ending in Rochester or perhaps even Minnesota, if he is dominant and shows the requisite amount of maturity and mound presence. He just turned 19 four days ago, so he is truly a young'un.

#26 kab21

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 08:41 PM

It's not like I'm making something up about how the Twins handle these guys, talent level taken into account high or low, it hasn't mattered.

edited out

I don't think he's really forcing anything right now. The performance has been pretty good so far, but not dominating, and that's what it would take.

I think it would be great if they promoted him, as I do think he's more advanced than what he's going against in Low-A, but it's also good for the guy to get more exposure in the league he is in, especially in his first full season. It has been only six starts after all.


I actually don't think that he's going to fly through the minors but I find your analysis to be incredibly lazy. If you are going to make the claim that this how they handle these guys regardless of talent level then you should have an example of at least one if not several guys as talented as Berrios to back it up.

These same things were said about young hitters because the Twins hadn't aggressively promoted them before. For example Arcia and he has moved multiple levels per year debuting just before his 22nd birthday. The same thing was said about Sano and he is probably a lock for a midseason promotion. Same goes for Buxton and possibly even Rosario. If you read the draft threads people are saying the same thing about Stewart.

If a player is earning promotions then he will move quicker than this historical precendent of lesser prospects. I also think that a 10.8 K/9 and a 1.6 BB/9 to be fairly dominating.

#27 AScheib50

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 09:27 PM

I was at the game tonight watching Berrios pitch. I had never seen him live so I was pretty excited. I was sitting right behind home plate so I had a great vantage point. The first inning was ugly but could have gone terribly awry. Jorge Polanco botched an inning ending double play and Berrios was rattled like some of the reports on this thread have said. The pitching coach immediately came out to calm him down. He ended up getting out of the inning with just one run.

But after the first he really settled down, started working quickly and looked fantastic. His fastball was getting swings and misses and he didn't seem to be afraid to throw his offspeed stuff in any count. He ended up only giving up 2 hits.

He's got things to work on of course. He is only 19 after all. He worked through a tough first inning and didn't implode. I was impressed. I'll probably do a write up of the whole game but I just wanted to drop in on this thread.

#28 InfraRen

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Posted 31 May 2013 - 09:42 PM

^Good stuff man, thanks.
Till I Collapse

#29 Mr. Brooks

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 10:16 AM

I'd say leave him at CR unless his performance starts to absolutely demand a promotion.
Let him start the year at FTM next year as a 19 year old, and if he earns a promotion to AA late in the season, he will still be extremely young for his league.

#30 YourHouseIsMyHouse

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Posted 02 June 2013 - 10:27 AM

I don't think Ft. Myers would be a huge step for him to take. There are better hitters, but the FSL is a good environment for pitchers. Although, I think he should stick it out in Cedar Rapids unless his performance spikes. He's got a great future and I hope the Twins move him along with Buxton.