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Article: Draft Board v.4.0 (5/22)

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#1 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 02:44 PM

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.co...rd-v-4-0-(5-22)

#2 gunnarthor

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 03:31 PM

Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!

#3 Dance with Disco Dan

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 03:49 PM

Be interesting in hearing more about the Stewart / Red Sox agreement. Fun list, thanks!


I am with Gunnarthor, Jeremy. Will you flesh out the Red Sox/Stewart thought? Are you suggesting that the Red Sox would make a pre-draft "deal" with Stewart that Stewart would tell the Twins to match or not draft him? He clearly has as much leverage as a kid can have under the current draft rules but it seems the height of hubris to pass up slot money at no. 4. As a high school prospect facing an alternative of three more years of free pitches and needing to remain top 4 prospect after those additional miles are put on his arm (even ignoring the risk of a football-related injury), it would shock me if he followed through on any such threat.

Edited by Dance with Disco Dan, 26 May 2013 - 03:52 PM.


#4 greengoblinrulz

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 03:51 PM

Great jobs all you guys do on the draft stuff.......love it

#5 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 03:55 PM

Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.

#6 Dance with Disco Dan

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 04:27 PM

Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.



Thanks. I agree he should pull out all the stops to better his and his family's future. Fair play, for sure. Unfortunately for him, he does not have the Appel option of passing on the best offer and re-entering next year's draft. He'll have to sweat out three years of health during his arm's 18-20 development years while Appel only had to sweat one year with a more mature arm.

I still believe Appel was a little nutty, on a risk/reward basis, to turn down the Pirates best offer even though it worked out very well for him. Stewart thumbing his nose at a Twins slot offer to go to college would put him way past Appel on the risk curve. I hope for his sake no one is advising him that it would be a good idea.

If I am the Twins, if he is best on their board, I take him even in the face of any same or similar "threat" by Stewart.

#7 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 04:29 PM

What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?
rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?

#8 clutterheart

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 05:26 PM

What makes you not sold on Bryant? I think this guy is a legit masher and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he goes before Appel or Gray.
Hes seems to have a good eye, decent hit for contact and fantastic power.
He could play anywhere and be an impact.

#9 johnnydakota

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 05:38 PM

Just a theory... The Red Sox are said to really like him. If the Twins aren't willing to pay full value and the Red Sox say they can come up with more than the Twins are willing to pay, Stewart can absolutely leverage the system. That's not to say that the Twins still couldn't take him. Its in his best interest to make as much money as possible.


Isint that tampering?Why would the Red Sox even have a say in any player till its there turn to draft?

#10 Bctwinsfan

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 06:34 PM

2 questions.

1. Do you realize how much the Red Sox can spend on their 1st pick?

2. How much of a discount to you expect the twins to look for at #4?

#11 kab21

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 07:28 PM

It creates some speculation but with the current draft penalties the Red Sox would either have to punt this year's draft and/or next year's draft to offer more money than the Twins can.

If the Twins want a player at #4 they will be able to offer more money if they want him.

#12 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:05 PM

Nothing illegal about it. Pre-draft deals happen all the time. Say, for example, that the Twins want to spend $4m. The Red Sox could rearrange to have more than that available. (We talked about the Red Sox spending more during the podcastable portion.)

There also isn't anything stopping the Twins from telling Gray's advisors they would be willing to go overslot with him and the agent raising the price for the other teams.

There's thought right now that Appel has a higher price tag for the Astros than Cubs, so he'll drop to actually get more money from the Cubs. (i.e. Astros say we'll give you $6.5. Boras says we want whole slot. Boras tells Cubs he wants $7m.).

#13 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:09 PM

What can you tell me about High schooler Carlos Salazar?
rhp , 4 pitches, 97mph fastball, why isint there more interest in him?


I saw this question posted elsewhere, did some research and answered. I don't remember exactly what I found, but it definitely wasn't as glowing as that report. I think 2nd-3rd round is what I thought.

#14 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:15 PM

What makes you not sold on Bryant? I think this guy is a legit masher and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he goes before Appel or Gray.
Hes seems to have a good eye, decent hit for contact and fantastic power.
He could play anywhere and be an impact.


I honestly don't know what it is. Maybe its college bats in general. I do think he'll be, at a minimum, an average major-leaguer. I'm skeptical that his hit tool comes back down to earth as a pro. I could be wrong and if he fell and the Twins took him, I wouldn't be angry. Same as if they passed.

#15 kab21

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:15 PM

Nothing illegal about it. Pre-draft deals happen all the time. Say, for example, that the Twins want to spend $4m. The Red Sox could rearrange to have more than that available. (We talked about the Red Sox spending more during the podcastable portion.)

There also isn't anything stopping the Twins from telling Gray's advisors they would be willing to go overslot with him and the agent raising the price for the other teams.

There's thought right now that Appel has a higher price tag for the Astros than Cubs, so he'll drop to actually get more money from the Cubs. (i.e. Astros say we'll give you $6.5. Boras says we want whole slot. Boras tells Cubs he wants $7m.).


I'm sorry but I don't listen to podcasts. the only way that the Red Sox can even come up with 4M is by basically punting their 2nd rd choice (signing significantly underslot) or by going >5% over their draft budget and losing the 1st (and possibly 2nd) rd pick next year. This is what needs to happen just for them to get to an underslot number by the Twins. If the Twins want Stewart they will be in a significantly better position than the Red Sox to make it happen.

#16 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:23 PM

2 questions.

1. Do you realize how much the Red Sox can spend on their 1st pick?

2. How much of a discount to you expect the twins to look for at #4?


The Red Sox have a pool of $6.8m. Not sure how much on their first pick. They could spend $3.6m on first pick if they are ok paying tax and going slot everywhere else. They could take 50 grand from other 9 slots and spend over $4m.

The position the Twins are in, with no clear-cut #4, they could probably bank a million without trading off too much talent. Are the #4 (Stewart?) and #6 (Shipley?) that different?

#17 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:28 PM

I'm sorry but I don't listen to podcasts. the only way that the Red Sox can even come up with 4M is by basically punting their 2nd rd choice (signing significantly underslot) or by going >5% over their draft budget and losing the 1st (and possibly 2nd) rd pick next year. This is what needs to happen just for them to get to an underslot number by the Twins. If the Twins want Stewart they will be in a significantly better position than the Red Sox to make it happen.


Well you missed a good discussion and I do get what you're saying. Price tags will remain fluid until the night of the draft. It will be interesting to see how the Stewart situation plays out... and lets not forget about the Rockies love-affair with drafting quarterbacks.

#18 kab21

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:31 PM

I honestly don't know what it is. Maybe its college bats in general. I do think he'll be, at a minimum, an average major-leaguer. I'm skeptical that his hit tool comes back down to earth as a pro. I could be wrong and if he fell and the Twins took him, I wouldn't be angry. Same as if they passed.


College bats have changed significantly in the last couple of years and yet Bryant has a .876 SLG% (a .538 isoP) and he's hitting more than a HR every other game. If you're skeptical of his bat then I'm not sure a college hitter should ever be taken in the top 5. I think Bryant is making a legitimate argument to be the BPA in the whole draft.

#19 kab21

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 09:34 PM

Well you missed a good discussion and I do get what you're saying. Price tags will remain fluid until the night of the draft. It will be interesting to see how the Stewart situation plays out... and lets not forget about the Rockies love-affair with drafting quarterbacks.


You're suggesting that the Red Sox would punt 1-2 other very valuable picks to take Stewart over a guy like Frazier. And the other necessary part of the equation is that the Twins would only take Stewart if he goes underslot. They might not take Stewart but if they want him there is very little chance that the Red Sox can offer him more.

#20 Jeremy Nygaard

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Posted 26 May 2013 - 10:01 PM

I'm suggesting that a team could cut a deal with an agent to go later for more money. Nine of the first 15 picks last year signed for under slot. The Twins could offer Stewart, Shipley and McGuire all $3.3m and, if Moran goes 5th as expected, somebody has to say yes or they risk losing money. There's a lot of ways to go about looking at this.